孖展动态 孖展倍数95.79x 孖展资金42.1亿 捷利预测倍数135.07x
排名 券商 孖展资金
1 富途证券富途 19.7亿
2 辉立证券辉立 7.0亿
3 老虎国际老虎 5.1亿
4 盈立证券盈立 3.0亿
5 华泰国际华泰 2.1亿
7 复星国际复星 1.3亿
8 致富证券致富 1.2亿
9 信诚证券信诚 7000万
10 熊猫证券熊猫 6672万
11 华盛证券华盛 5000万
12 长桥证券长桥 3569万
13 兴证国际兴证 2563万
14 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 1730万
15 东证国际东证 1034万
16 盈宝证券盈宝 477万
17 艾德证券艾德 377万
孖展倍数
时间倍数
2026-08-31T06:00:00+08:000
2026-08-31T10:07:19+08:000.6292339167992725
2026-08-31T10:07:27+08:000.6831097976812912
2026-08-31T10:07:34+08:000.689247556262787
2026-08-31T10:07:40+08:000.7863150716071835
2026-08-31T10:07:47+08:000.8
2026-08-31T10:32:32+08:001.2634689702205046
2026-08-31T11:26:10+08:001.2966583314389635
2026-08-31T11:26:18+08:001.3014321436690157
2026-08-31T11:26:36+08:001.5032962036826552
2026-08-31T11:27:01+08:001.527619913616731
2026-08-31T11:27:18+08:001.5312571038872471
2026-08-31T11:27:37+08:001.5746760627415322
2026-08-31T11:27:59+08:002.27
2026-08-31T12:21:19+08:002.3303023414412367
2026-08-31T12:21:31+08:002.421232098204137
2026-08-31T12:21:44+08:002.535576267333485
2026-08-31T12:22:04+08:002.536712889293021
2026-08-31T12:22:31+08:002.5498977040236417
2026-08-31T12:22:56+08:002.624005455785406
2026-08-31T12:23:22+08:002.6708342805182994
2026-08-31T12:23:42+08:002.69811320754717
2026-08-31T12:24:17+08:002.88
2026-08-31T13:41:46+08:002.8972493748579224
2026-08-31T13:42:23+08:002.9081609456694704
2026-08-31T13:42:39+08:002.9088429188451923
2026-08-31T13:43:00+08:002.9670379631734485
2026-08-31T13:43:13+08:003.0195498977040236
2026-08-31T13:43:30+08:003.1104796544669244
2026-08-31T13:43:50+08:003.26
2026-08-31T14:04:34+08:003.272789270288702
2026-08-31T14:04:44+08:003.2759718117754035
2026-08-31T14:05:04+08:003.277335758126847
2026-08-31T14:05:23+08:003.5335303478063196
2026-08-31T14:05:41+08:003.5487610820641056
2026-08-31T14:05:52+08:003.552852921118436
2026-08-31T14:06:15+08:003.7801773130256877
2026-08-31T14:07:21+08:004.26
2026-08-31T15:13:28+08:004.280290975221641
2026-08-31T15:13:39+08:004.284155489884064
2026-08-31T15:13:53+08:004.374857922255058
2026-08-31T15:14:12+08:004.375085246646965
2026-08-31T15:14:27+08:004.393271197999545
2026-08-31T15:14:47+08:004.442145942259605
2026-08-31T15:15:07+08:004.487610820641055
2026-08-31T15:16:01+08:004.52
2026-08-31T16:54:43+08:004.551488974766992
2026-08-31T16:54:53+08:004.568083655376222
2026-08-31T16:55:10+08:004.600591043418959
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2026-08-31T16:55:42+08:004.522391452602864
2026-08-31T16:56:23+08:005.022505114798818
2026-08-31T16:56:37+08:005.056831097976813
2026-08-31T17:00:16+08:005.049102068651966
2026-08-31T17:00:58+08:005.50375085246647
2026-08-31T17:01:34+08:005.523300750170494
2026-08-31T17:07:49+08:005.333484882927938
2026-08-31T17:08:01+08:005.33416685610366
2026-08-31T17:08:18+08:005.143441691293476
2026-08-31T17:08:44+08:005.151625369402137
2026-08-31T17:09:04+08:005.48
2026-08-31T17:47:45+08:007.48
2026-08-31T18:09:29+08:007.455103432598317
2026-08-31T18:10:00+08:007.45578540577404
2026-08-31T18:10:37+08:007.547397135712662
2026-08-31T18:10:47+08:007.54012275517163
2026-08-31T18:11:17+08:007.944078199590816
2026-08-31T18:11:53+08:008.080472834735167
2026-08-31T18:13:23+08:008.176631052511935
2026-08-31T21:04:13+08:008.188224596499204
2026-08-31T21:05:01+08:008.140259149806774
2026-08-31T21:05:46+08:008.148442827915435
2026-08-31T21:06:27+08:008.150488747442601
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2026-08-31T21:07:38+08:008.368492839281656
2026-08-31T21:08:06+08:008.39122527847238
2026-08-31T22:04:42+08:008.90156853830416
2026-08-31T22:05:02+08:008.909752216412821
2026-08-31T22:05:32+08:009.523528074562401
2026-09-01T08:37:00+08:009.532393725846783
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2026-09-01T08:37:38+08:009.62536940213685
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2026-09-01T08:38:44+08:009.738804273698568
2026-09-01T08:39:06+08:0010.84
2026-09-01T09:03:41+08:0010.893612184587406
2026-09-01T09:03:58+08:0010.97931348033644
2026-09-01T09:04:28+08:0010.99909070243237
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2026-09-01T10:11:51+08:0011.189815867242555
2026-09-01T10:12:07+08:0011.219595362582405
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2026-09-01T10:12:50+08:0011.319618095021596
2026-09-01T10:13:42+08:0011.92
2026-09-01T11:17:22+08:0011.846328711070697
2026-09-01T11:17:42+08:0011.927028870197772
2026-09-01T11:18:16+08:0011.9247556262787
2026-09-01T11:18:38+08:0011.98272334621505
2026-09-01T11:19:06+08:0012.035917253921346
2026-09-01T11:19:35+08:0012.81
2026-09-01T12:11:53+08:0012.6897022050466
2026-09-01T12:12:07+08:0012.689929529438508
2026-09-01T12:12:27+08:0012.709706751534439
2026-09-01T12:12:39+08:0012.709479427142533
2026-09-01T12:12:54+08:0012.672198226869742
2026-09-01T12:13:24+08:0012.673107524437372
2026-09-01T12:14:03+08:0013.19
2026-09-01T13:43:23+08:0012.979086155944533
2026-09-01T13:43:38+08:0012.983405319390771
2026-09-01T13:44:15+08:0012.987951807228916
2026-09-01T13:44:35+08:0012.897022050466015
2026-09-01T13:44:45+08:0012.893157535803592
2026-09-01T13:45:11+08:0013.07
2026-09-01T14:02:51+08:0012.90156853830416
2026-09-01T14:03:18+08:0012.903614457831326
2026-09-01T14:03:37+08:0012.940668333712207
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2026-09-01T14:04:15+08:0012.962491475335304
2026-09-01T14:04:33+08:0012.965901341213913
2026-09-01T14:05:45+08:0012.99840872925665
2026-09-01T14:06:35+08:0014.95
2026-09-01T15:15:54+08:0014.794271425323938
2026-09-01T15:16:04+08:0014.756080927483518
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2026-09-01T15:16:40+08:0015.126847010684246
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2026-09-01T15:17:40+08:0015.85
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2026-09-01T17:37:10+08:0017.373493975903614
2026-09-01T17:37:33+08:0021.738122300522846
2026-09-01T17:38:27+08:0021.93
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2026-09-01T19:57:13+08:0022.355762673334848
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2026-09-01T19:58:13+08:0022.42
2026-09-01T20:22:16+08:0023.224596499204363
2026-09-01T20:22:41+08:0023.244601045692203
2026-09-01T20:23:29+08:0023.74
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2026-09-01T21:33:08+08:0023.486474198681517
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2026-09-02T09:21:03+08:0025.395317117526712
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2026-09-02T09:25:14+08:0026.81
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捷利预测倍数
时间倍数
券商孖展资金走势
时间券商孖展资金
预测模型 一手期望中签手数— 期望中签1手所需手数—
倍数推导
近期首日表现
+4.6%
→
参与人数
17,739
→
人均手数
78.5
→
认购倍数
124x
124x = 17,739 × 78.5 ÷ 11,250 机器人 孖展加权 100% → 135.1x
1x30757.0x
分配手法系数 α
分配手法系数
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.41
分配手法系数 α
分配手法系数
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.51
此模型不适用分配手法调节

实际 vs 预测 对比

以实际认购倍数 140.02x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.413, 乙组 α=0.513) 为基准,对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数

申购手数 认购金额(HKD) 实际期望中签 预测期望中签 偏差

标志优地机器人中签预测矩阵

行为申购档位,列为不同认购倍数,数值为期望中签手数,绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手;非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。

发售机制说明

18C特专科技

《主板规则》第18C章,为特专科技公司设立。机制A及机制B不适用。初订分配份额为5%,回补门槛:10倍至不足50倍→10%,50倍或以上→20%。根据第18C.08条,发售股份总数中至少50%须由配售部分的独立定价投资者认购。

分配手法系数 α

α 为发行人分配偏好系数,描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——无论申购多少手,每位中签者获配股数相同。对散户(小单申购)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——获配股数与申购手数成正比。对大额申购更有利。
  • 历史实际 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3–0.9,乙组 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差异较大,反映发行人各自的分配策略。
中签率定义

本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致:中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径,与其他网站可能使用的不同定义(如「申购人数中签比例」)有本质区别。

期望中签手数

期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数

例:某档位获配总股数 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

关于本页

本页展示 优地机器人(03231)的中签预测:基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导,公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数;其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准,再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准;随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权;临近截止(进度约九成后)默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配,估计各申购档位的期望中签手数,并结合分配手法系数 α(人均分配至比例分配)给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α,覆盖 cibo 的默认预测,查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源:港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告;孖展数据(孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细)来自捷利交易宝(TradeGo),倍数仅覆盖已上报券商,捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新;中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中签率预测、中签画像与入通分析