孖展动态 孖展倍数820.98x 孖展资金2137.8亿 捷利预测倍数1067.28x
排名 券商 孖展资金
1 富途证券富途 1201.8亿
2 辉立证券辉立 510.0亿
3 老虎国际老虎 195.6亿
4 华泰国际华泰 84.8亿
5 招银国际招银 38.0亿
6 华盛证券华盛 34.0亿
7 盈立证券盈立 17.8亿
8 熊猫证券熊猫 14.2亿
9 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 10.6亿
孖展倍数
时间倍数
2026-04-09T06:00:00+08:000
2026-04-09T10:12:13+08:000.1152073732718894
2026-04-09T10:12:28+08:000.15241935483870966
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2026-04-09T10:51:27+08:000.8462365591397849
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2026-04-09T11:01:23+08:001.3310675883256529
2026-04-09T11:07:17+08:001.331336405529954
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2026-04-09T11:08:24+08:004.372619047619048
2026-04-09T11:50:00+08:004.3728878648233485
2026-04-09T12:14:03+08:004.386482334869432
2026-04-09T12:14:43+08:004.450499231950845
2026-04-09T12:15:00+08:004.640898617511521
2026-04-09T12:15:18+08:007.014170506912443
2026-04-09T13:43:31+08:007.014746543778802
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2026-04-09T14:06:30+08:009.127380952380953
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2026-04-09T15:16:36+08:0010.774347158218125
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2026-04-09T15:17:06+08:0010.772503840245776
2026-04-09T15:17:25+08:0012.331643625192012
2026-04-09T15:17:45+08:0012.385675883256528
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2026-04-09T18:17:18+08:0031.397503840245776
2026-04-09T22:31:17+08:0032.177073732718895
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2026-04-09T22:31:26+08:0033.88598310291859
2026-04-09T22:31:31+08:0034.93052995391705
2026-04-09T22:31:57+08:0035.186290322580646
2026-04-09T22:32:02+08:0035.60814132104455
2026-04-09T22:32:06+08:0035.66171274961597
2026-04-09T22:32:10+08:0036.15641321044547
2026-04-09T22:35:00+08:0036.21317204301075
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2026-04-09T22:35:08+08:0036.46048387096774
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2026-04-09T22:40:12+08:0036.59761904761905
2026-04-09T22:40:17+08:0036.59788786482335
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2026-04-10T08:42:23+08:0036.87242703533026
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2026-04-10T11:11:27+08:0051.50802611367128
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2026-04-10T12:09:47+08:0057.01232718894009
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2026-04-10T13:40:35+08:0060.793356374807985
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2026-04-10T14:13:22+08:0063.04823348694316
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捷利预测倍数
时间倍数
券商孖展资金走势
时间券商孖展资金
预测模型 一手期望中签手数— 期望中签1手所需手数—
倍数推导
近期首日表现
+4.6%
→
参与人数
22,156
→
人均手数
77.8
→
认购倍数
26x
26x = 22,156 × 77.8 ÷ 65,295 孖展加权 100% → 1067.3x
1x3840.0x
分配手法系数 α
分配手法系数
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.50
分配手法系数 α
分配手法系数
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.60
此模型不适用分配手法调节

实际 vs 预测 对比

以实际认购倍数 1138.21x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.496, 乙组 α=0.596) 为基准,对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数

申购手数 认购金额(HKD) 实际期望中签 预测期望中签 偏差

标志长光辰芯中签预测矩阵

行为申购档位,列为不同认购倍数,数值为期望中签手数,绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手;非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。

发售机制说明

机制B

《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%,不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%(因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者,基石投资者除外)。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益,自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。

分配手法系数 α

α 为发行人分配偏好系数,描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——无论申购多少手,每位中签者获配股数相同。对散户(小单申购)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——获配股数与申购手数成正比。对大额申购更有利。
  • 历史实际 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3–0.9,乙组 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差异较大,反映发行人各自的分配策略。
中签率定义

本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致:中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径,与其他网站可能使用的不同定义(如「申购人数中签比例」)有本质区别。

期望中签手数

期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数

例:某档位获配总股数 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

关于本页

本页展示 长光辰芯(03277)的中签预测:基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导,公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数;其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准,再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准;随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权;临近截止(进度约九成后)默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配,估计各申购档位的期望中签手数,并结合分配手法系数 α(人均分配至比例分配)给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α,覆盖 cibo 的默认预测,查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源:港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告;孖展数据(孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细)来自捷利交易宝(TradeGo),倍数仅覆盖已上报券商,捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新;中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中签率预测、中签画像与入通分析