孖展动态 孖展倍数98.42x 孖展资金86.1亿 捷利预测倍数133.86x
排名 券商 孖展资金
1 富途证券富途 53.6亿
2 辉立证券辉立 11.0亿
3 老虎国际老虎 7.6亿
4 华泰国际华泰 5.0亿
5 信诚证券信诚 2.0亿
6 华盛证券华盛 1.5亿
7 盈立证券盈立 1.5亿
8 复星国际复星 1.3亿
9 致富证券致富 1.2亿
孖展倍数
时间倍数
2026-06-30T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-30T10:28:36+08:000.00011425959780621572
2026-06-30T10:28:41+08:000.0005712979890310786
2026-06-30T11:19:40+08:000.010283363802559415
2026-06-30T11:19:46+08:000.020452468007312614
2026-06-30T11:19:52+08:000.02776508226691042
2026-06-30T11:20:04+08:000.4048217550274223
2026-06-30T12:14:33+08:000.40653564899451555
2026-06-30T12:19:15+08:000.4272166361974406
2026-06-30T12:22:02+08:000.4288162705667276
2026-06-30T12:25:01+08:000.4327010968921389
2026-06-30T12:26:56+08:000.5926645338208409
2026-06-30T14:05:34+08:000.595292504570384
2026-06-30T14:05:37+08:000.5959780621572212
2026-06-30T14:07:04+08:000.5970063985374772
2026-06-30T14:07:06+08:000.5990630712979891
2026-06-30T14:13:41+08:000.6228290676416819
2026-06-30T14:13:43+08:000.6856718464351006
2026-06-30T14:18:12+08:000.6954981718464351
2026-06-30T14:18:15+08:000.6957266910420475
2026-06-30T14:18:31+08:000.9128199268738574
2026-06-30T14:18:34+08:000.9928016453382084
2026-06-30T14:24:30+08:001.0053702010968921
2026-06-30T14:28:53+08:001.0523308957952469
2026-06-30T15:03:32+08:001.0543875685557587
2026-06-30T15:05:44+08:001.1018053016453382
2026-06-30T15:09:04+08:001.184300731261426
2026-06-30T15:10:24+08:001.2185786106032908
2026-06-30T15:17:41+08:001.2358318098720293
2026-06-30T15:20:55+08:001.2472577696526508
2026-06-30T16:29:12+08:001.2529707495429616
2026-06-30T16:33:02+08:001.2638254113345522
2026-06-30T16:37:40+08:001.2649680073126142
2026-06-30T16:39:42+08:001.2528564899451553
2026-06-30T16:41:35+08:001.3899680073126142
2026-06-30T17:07:01+08:001.4084780621572213
2026-06-30T17:08:36+08:001.4155621572212065
2026-06-30T17:11:11+08:001.4621800731261425
2026-06-30T17:17:44+08:001.793532906764168
2026-06-30T17:48:29+08:002.9361288848263256
2026-06-30T18:04:23+08:002.945840950639854
2026-06-30T18:12:44+08:002.9472120658135283
2026-06-30T18:17:15+08:002.94926873857404
2026-06-30T18:21:12+08:002.9091636197440587
2026-06-30T18:24:37+08:002.9104204753199268
2026-06-30T20:09:05+08:002.9155621572212067
2026-06-30T20:12:57+08:002.92058957952468
2026-06-30T20:15:18+08:003.0314213893967095
2026-06-30T20:17:23+08:003.036106032906764
2026-06-30T20:19:16+08:003.2189213893967095
2026-06-30T22:00:20+08:003.220635283363803
2026-06-30T22:06:18+08:003.2228062157221204
2026-06-30T22:08:48+08:003.467207495429616
2026-06-30T22:09:58+08:003.5014853747714807
2026-07-01T08:45:16+08:003.5043418647166362
2026-07-01T08:45:19+08:003.651508226691042
2026-07-01T08:58:10+08:004.279936014625228
2026-07-01T09:02:29+08:004.279936014625228
2026-07-01T09:05:31+08:004.304730347349177
2026-07-01T09:10:39+08:004.308615173674589
2026-07-01T09:12:30+08:004.315927787934187
2026-07-01T09:14:24+08:004.441613345521024
2026-07-01T09:18:03+08:004.446983546617916
2026-07-01T09:20:00+08:004.492687385740402
2026-07-01T09:22:33+08:004.516110603290676
2026-07-01T10:18:22+08:004.517138939670932
2026-07-01T10:22:19+08:004.562271480804387
2026-07-01T10:24:54+08:004.56581352833638
2026-07-01T10:26:26+08:004.5772394881170015
2026-07-01T10:28:34+08:004.578610603290676
2026-07-01T11:09:12+08:004.623514625228519
2026-07-01T11:10:39+08:004.6265996343692875
2026-07-01T11:13:28+08:004.646366544789762
2026-07-01T11:16:17+08:004.651508226691042
2026-07-01T11:20:08+08:004.765767824497257
2026-07-01T12:13:55+08:004.771595063985375
2026-07-01T12:16:22+08:004.772737659963437
2026-07-01T12:18:14+08:004.774565813528336
2026-07-01T12:20:01+08:004.775137111517368
2026-07-01T12:21:27+08:005.095063985374772
2026-07-01T14:11:58+08:005.098263254113346
2026-07-01T14:12:01+08:005.09872029250457
2026-07-01T14:15:54+08:005.102490859232176
2026-07-01T14:15:56+08:005.1074040219378425
2026-07-01T14:19:45+08:005.130255941499086
2026-07-01T14:19:48+08:005.290219378427788
2026-07-01T14:23:15+08:005.2903336380255945
2026-07-01T14:26:12+08:005.2917047531992685
2026-07-01T14:26:14+08:005.292847349177331
2026-07-01T14:29:36+08:005.403336380255942
2026-07-01T15:09:51+08:005.404478976234004
2026-07-01T15:13:05+08:005.418304387568556
2026-07-01T15:15:27+08:005.419104204753199
2026-07-01T15:17:43+08:005.4227605118829985
2026-07-01T15:19:50+08:005.457038391224863
2026-07-01T16:14:49+08:005.462979890310786
2026-07-01T16:18:11+08:005.4717778793418645
2026-07-01T16:20:41+08:005.473606032906764
2026-07-01T16:22:12+08:005.667847349177331
2026-07-01T16:23:45+08:005.669675502742231
2026-07-01T17:02:25+08:005.7839351005484465
2026-07-01T17:03:46+08:005.785648994515539
2026-07-01T17:06:25+08:005.794104204753199
2026-07-01T17:09:30+08:005.794675502742231
2026-07-01T17:10:54+08:005.806101462522852
2026-07-01T17:12:12+08:005.805758683729433
2026-07-01T18:02:44+08:005.8073583180987205
2026-07-01T18:05:22+08:005.808843692870201
2026-07-01T18:08:41+08:005.823354661791591
2026-07-01T18:09:52+08:005.834780621572212
2026-07-01T18:11:15+08:005.836151736745887
2026-07-01T18:16:00+08:005.861403107861061
2026-07-01T20:55:19+08:005.863574040219379
2026-07-01T20:58:34+08:005.8663162705667276
2026-07-01T21:00:12+08:005.881512797074954
2026-07-01T21:03:55+08:005.890539305301646
2026-07-01T22:06:25+08:005.890196526508227
2026-07-01T22:09:26+08:005.896023765996343
2026-07-01T22:14:49+08:006.558729433272394
2026-07-02T08:44:04+08:006.603062157221206
2026-07-02T08:44:07+08:006.637568555758683
2026-07-02T08:52:22+08:006.797531992687386
2026-07-02T08:59:27+08:006.797531992687386
2026-07-02T09:13:14+08:006.817984460694698
2026-07-02T09:19:09+08:006.832495429616087
2026-07-02T09:27:02+08:006.829638939670932
2026-07-02T09:29:43+08:006.8971663619744055
2026-07-02T09:33:18+08:006.920018281535649
2026-07-02T09:50:10+08:006.950297074954296
2026-07-02T10:14:32+08:006.960237659963437
2026-07-02T10:17:06+08:006.962408592321755
2026-07-02T10:19:11+08:006.978290676416819
2026-07-02T10:21:20+08:006.978976234003657
2026-07-02T10:25:45+08:007.047531992687386
2026-07-02T11:10:06+08:007.050502742230347
2026-07-02T11:13:59+08:007.024565813528336
2026-07-02T11:15:21+08:006.9103062157221204
2026-07-02T11:17:00+08:006.913391224862888
2026-07-02T11:19:02+08:006.9153336380255945
2026-07-02T12:11:48+08:006.9121343692870205
2026-07-02T12:16:50+08:006.940927787934187
2026-07-02T12:20:20+08:006.941384826325411
2026-07-02T12:21:43+08:006.92995886654479
2026-07-02T12:24:23+08:006.932472577696527
2026-07-02T14:09:31+08:006.934529250457039
2026-07-02T14:09:33+08:006.935100548446069
2026-07-02T14:13:30+08:006.944698354661791
2026-07-02T14:13:33+08:006.947783363802559
2026-07-02T14:19:26+08:006.951668190127971
2026-07-02T14:23:16+08:006.958866544789762
2026-07-02T14:23:18+08:007.324497257769653
2026-07-02T14:23:21+08:007.473034734917733
2026-07-02T14:35:35+08:007.509483546617916
2026-07-02T15:01:22+08:007.510968921389397
2026-07-02T15:03:29+08:007.524108775137112
2026-07-02T15:06:34+08:007.535991773308958
2026-07-02T15:11:55+08:007.535648994515539
2026-07-02T15:13:27+08:008.061243144424132
2026-07-02T16:05:13+08:008.064213893967093
2026-07-02T16:07:28+08:008.070498171846435
2026-07-02T16:10:38+08:008.095178244972578
2026-07-02T16:12:00+08:008.1066042047532
2026-07-02T16:14:32+08:008.110146252285192
2026-07-02T17:04:23+08:008.111288848263253
2026-07-02T17:06:01+08:008.121115173674589
2026-07-02T17:08:41+08:008.125342778793419
2026-07-02T17:11:31+08:008.125685557586838
2026-07-02T17:14:24+08:008.742687385740401
2026-07-02T18:07:47+08:008.77902193784278
2026-07-02T18:17:50+08:008.985031992687386
2026-07-02T18:19:19+08:009.018167276051189
2026-07-02T18:21:39+08:009.116430530164534
2026-07-02T18:23:05+08:009.136882998171846
2026-07-02T18:24:06+08:009.285420475319928
2026-07-02T18:26:46+08:0011.570612431444241
2026-07-02T20:42:04+08:0011.571069469835466
2026-07-02T20:44:51+08:0011.640539305301646
2026-07-02T20:45:46+08:0011.639968007312614
2026-07-02T20:50:00+08:0011.8106718464351
2026-07-02T20:51:55+08:0012.24485831809872
2026-07-02T21:49:46+08:0012.297760511882998
2026-07-02T22:06:10+08:0012.290904936014625
2026-07-02T22:10:08+08:0012.385626142595978
2026-07-02T22:12:02+08:0013.071183729433272
2026-07-03T08:40:31+08:0013.337180073126143
2026-07-03T08:40:34+08:0014.010511882998172
2026-07-03T08:46:17+08:0014.010511882998172
2026-07-03T08:48:35+08:0018.055301645338208
2026-07-03T09:01:36+08:0018.340950639853748
2026-07-03T09:02:28+08:0018.404707495429616
2026-07-03T09:07:06+08:0018.409277879341865
2026-07-03T09:09:54+08:0018.334095063985373
2026-07-03T09:12:47+08:0018.653450639853748
2026-07-03T09:14:42+08:0018.916247714808044
2026-07-03T09:18:15+08:0020.34026508226691
2026-07-03T10:16:27+08:0020.469606946983546
2026-07-03T10:20:36+08:0021.64648080438757
2026-07-03T10:27:00+08:0021.68441499085923
2026-07-03T10:29:59+08:0021.721892138939673
2026-07-03T11:14:11+08:0021.840493601462523
2026-07-03T11:16:16+08:0022.080438756855575
2026-07-03T11:18:16+08:0022.09414990859232
2026-07-03T11:19:30+08:0022.08695155393053
2026-07-03T12:28:41+08:0022.414762340036564
2026-07-03T12:30:56+08:0023.088893967093234
2026-07-03T12:33:02+08:0023.14248171846435
2026-07-03T12:35:08+08:0023.155050274223036
2026-07-03T13:40:34+08:0023.20235374771481
2026-07-03T13:43:32+08:0023.49942870201097
2026-07-03T13:44:30+08:0023.5293647166362
2026-07-03T13:46:00+08:0023.544789762340038
2026-07-03T14:01:09+08:0023.57883912248629
2026-07-03T14:02:41+08:0023.77993601462523
2026-07-03T14:07:40+08:0023.99337294332724
2026-07-03T14:09:05+08:0023.99462979890311
2026-07-03T14:10:45+08:0024.22314899451554
2026-07-03T14:13:19+08:0024.249314442413162
2026-07-03T15:19:59+08:0024.32883912248629
2026-07-03T15:22:06+08:0024.865859232175502
2026-07-03T15:24:58+08:0024.894766910420476
2026-07-03T15:25:48+08:0024.961723034734916
2026-07-03T16:04:40+08:0025.041247714808044
2026-07-03T16:06:38+08:0026.423788848263253
2026-07-03T16:07:45+08:0026.494058500914075
2026-07-03T16:09:23+08:0026.504113345521024
2026-07-03T17:09:26+08:0026.577696526508227
2026-07-03T17:10:51+08:0026.802102376599635
2026-07-03T17:12:47+08:0027.5331352833638
2026-07-03T17:13:49+08:0027.573811700182816
2026-07-03T17:15:28+08:0028.25936928702011
2026-07-03T17:18:28+08:0030.5331352833638
2026-07-03T18:32:21+08:0032.24702925045704
2026-07-03T18:33:50+08:0032.54296160877514
2026-07-03T18:33:54+08:0032.611517367458866
2026-07-03T18:34:32+08:0032.69435557586837
2026-07-03T18:37:07+08:0032.643510054844604
2026-07-03T18:39:44+08:0032.66350548446069
2026-07-03T18:40:39+08:0032.86688756855576
2026-07-03T18:43:05+08:0033.75811243144424
2026-07-03T18:47:07+08:0034.93338665447897
2026-07-03T21:05:34+08:0034.94275594149909
2026-07-03T21:07:10+08:0034.975776965265084
2026-07-03T21:09:03+08:0034.98994515539305
2026-07-03T21:12:42+08:0035.20121115173674
2026-07-03T21:14:26+08:0036.48091864716636
2026-07-03T21:15:14+08:0036.960808957952466
2026-07-04T09:34:51+08:0036.960808957952466
2026-07-04T09:36:51+08:0036.93772851919561
2026-07-04T09:37:31+08:0036.97909049360146
2026-07-04T09:40:07+08:0036.8216407678245
2026-07-04T09:41:39+08:0037.18132998171846
2026-07-04T09:42:49+08:0038.11825868372944
2026-07-04T09:43:32+08:0038.438185557586834
2026-07-04T10:27:06+08:0038.53759140767824
2026-07-04T10:28:02+08:0038.542390310786104
2026-07-04T10:29:58+08:0038.56010054844607
2026-07-04T10:31:58+08:0038.64008226691042
2026-07-04T12:03:13+08:0038.65196526508227
2026-07-04T12:10:38+08:0038.685900365630715
2026-07-04T12:12:07+08:0038.71423674588665
2026-07-04T12:13:55+08:0038.748514625228516
2026-07-04T12:14:16+08:0039.11414533820841
2026-07-04T15:36:48+08:0039.12557129798903
2026-07-04T15:38:31+08:0039.13105575868373
2026-07-04T15:39:44+08:0039.1140310786106
2026-07-04T15:40:22+08:0039.11323126142596
2026-07-04T15:42:13+08:0039.673103290676416
2026-07-04T15:42:40+08:0040.83855118829982
2026-07-04T18:35:32+08:0040.929159049360145
2026-07-04T18:37:40+08:0041.0643281535649
2026-07-04T18:38:48+08:0041.07369744058501
2026-07-04T18:40:11+08:0041.15390767824497
2026-07-04T18:41:07+08:0041.55381627056673
2026-07-04T18:41:32+08:0041.89659506398537
2026-07-04T20:04:13+08:0041.92298903107861
2026-07-04T20:06:24+08:0041.92847349177331
2026-07-04T20:07:05+08:0041.93715722120658
2026-07-04T20:07:55+08:0042.17790219378428
2026-07-04T20:08:55+08:0042.20075411334552
2026-07-04T21:34:08+08:0042.203724862888485
2026-07-04T21:34:34+08:0042.20132541133455
2026-07-04T21:35:51+08:0042.22943327239488
2026-07-04T21:36:32+08:0042.77787934186472
2026-07-05T09:33:49+08:0042.793989945155396
2026-07-05T09:33:54+08:0042.83500914076782
2026-07-05T09:33:59+08:0042.918304387568554
2026-07-05T09:34:03+08:0042.9926873857404
2026-07-05T09:42:11+08:0043.027079524680076
2026-07-05T09:44:50+08:0043.131398537477146
2026-07-05T09:47:18+08:0043.14282449725777
2026-07-05T09:47:49+08:0044.73103290676417
2026-07-05T09:53:40+08:0044.7776508226691
2026-07-05T09:54:15+08:0044.788162705667276
2026-07-05T12:19:35+08:0045.18807129798903
2026-07-05T12:20:22+08:0045.67938756855576
2026-07-05T12:21:00+08:0047.00479890310786
2026-07-05T12:23:22+08:0047.021252285191956
2026-07-05T12:24:02+08:0047.0515310786106
2026-07-05T12:24:41+08:0047.05587294332724
2026-07-05T12:28:00+08:0047.06935557586837
2026-07-05T12:28:25+08:0047.07324040219378
2026-07-05T12:28:58+08:0047.091978976234
2026-07-05T12:31:27+08:0047.09346435100549
2026-07-05T12:32:02+08:0047.12374314442413
2026-07-05T12:32:32+08:0047.17755941499086
2026-07-05T12:39:16+08:0047.183043875685556
2026-07-05T12:40:22+08:0047.19069926873858
2026-07-05T12:41:34+08:0047.201896709323584
2026-07-05T14:44:54+08:0047.31821297989031
2026-07-05T14:45:23+08:0047.27353747714808
2026-07-05T14:47:30+08:0047.277993601462526
2026-07-05T14:47:54+08:0047.28382084095064
2026-07-05T14:49:37+08:0047.2848491773309
2026-07-05T14:50:03+08:0047.29764625228519
2026-07-05T14:51:51+08:0047.85751828153565
2026-07-05T14:52:26+08:0047.86894424131627
2026-07-05T14:54:05+08:0047.89111060329068
2026-07-05T14:54:34+08:0047.91373400365631
2026-07-05T17:19:51+08:0047.99245886654479
2026-07-05T17:20:25+08:0048.092893053016454
2026-07-05T17:21:02+08:0048.10397623400365
2026-07-05T17:23:26+08:0048.120543875685556
2026-07-05T17:23:59+08:0048.12237202925046
2026-07-05T17:24:38+08:0048.137454296160875
2026-07-05T17:26:30+08:0048.468807129798904
2026-07-05T17:27:05+08:0048.88014168190128
2026-07-05T17:27:44+08:0049.95418190127971
2026-07-05T17:30:30+08:0049.9265310786106
2026-07-05T17:31:08+08:0049.9356718464351
2026-07-05T17:31:39+08:0049.96035191956124
2026-07-05T17:48:36+08:0049.96423674588665
2026-07-05T17:49:13+08:0049.967893053016454
2026-07-05T17:49:57+08:0049.96937842778794
2026-07-05T20:06:39+08:0050.1176873857404
2026-07-05T20:07:14+08:0050.119629798903105
2026-07-05T20:07:51+08:0050.36608775137112
2026-07-05T20:13:40+08:0050.35591864716636
2026-07-05T20:14:11+08:0050.3622029250457
2026-07-05T20:14:50+08:0050.39785191956124
2026-07-05T20:16:40+08:0050.415333638025594
2026-07-05T20:17:17+08:0050.4283592321755
2026-07-05T20:18:05+08:0050.442984460694696
2026-07-05T20:20:57+08:0050.44926873857404
2026-07-05T20:21:34+08:0050.455781535648995
2026-07-05T21:10:34+08:0051.88402650822669
2026-07-05T21:11:19+08:0053.769309872029254
2026-07-05T21:12:04+08:0055.07186928702011
2026-07-05T21:12:45+08:0055.90596435100549
2026-07-05T21:15:22+08:0055.92493144424132
2026-07-05T21:16:30+08:0055.99017367458867
2026-07-05T21:21:53+08:0055.88117001828154
2026-07-06T08:39:22+08:0056.00239945155393
2026-07-06T08:39:55+08:0056.4872029250457
2026-07-06T08:40:19+08:0057.28370658135283
2026-07-06T08:44:18+08:0057.35751828153565
2026-07-06T08:45:57+08:0058.728633455210236
2026-07-06T08:46:16+08:0068.86345978062157
2026-07-06T08:49:38+08:0068.86345978062157
2026-07-06T09:03:11+08:0069.05118829981718
2026-07-06T09:04:42+08:0069.96526508226691
2026-07-06T09:05:19+08:0070.35683272394881
2026-07-06T09:06:56+08:0070.5514168190128
2026-07-06T09:07:46+08:0074.893281535649
2026-07-06T09:09:34+08:0077.47154936014626
2026-07-06T10:26:52+08:0077.53187842778793
2026-07-06T10:27:41+08:0079.33535191956125
2026-07-06T10:28:57+08:0089.19595521023766
2026-07-06T11:10:16+08:0089.26793875685557
2026-07-06T16:19:49+08:0098.42
捷利预测倍数
时间倍数
券商孖展资金走势
时间券商孖展资金
预测模型 一手期望中签手数— 期望中签1手所需手数—
倍数推导
近期首日表现
-0.2%
→
参与人数
53,913
→
人均手数
125.5
→
认购倍数
294x
294x = 53,913 × 125.5 ÷ 23,032 机器人 孖展加权 100% → 133.9x
1x11425.0x
分配手法系数 α
分配手法系数
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.54
分配手法系数 α
分配手法系数
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.64
此模型不适用分配手法调节

实际 vs 预测 对比

以实际认购倍数 156.58x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.536, 乙组 α=0.636) 为基准,对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数

申购手数 认购金额(HKD) 实际期望中签 预测期望中签 偏差

标志珞石机器人中签预测矩阵

行为申购档位,列为不同认购倍数,数值为期望中签手数,绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手;非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。

发售机制说明

机制B

《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%,不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%(因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者,基石投资者除外)。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益,自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。

分配手法系数 α

α 为发行人分配偏好系数,描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——无论申购多少手,每位中签者获配股数相同。对散户(小单申购)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——获配股数与申购手数成正比。对大额申购更有利。
  • 历史实际 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3–0.9,乙组 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差异较大,反映发行人各自的分配策略。
中签率定义

本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致:中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径,与其他网站可能使用的不同定义(如「申购人数中签比例」)有本质区别。

期望中签手数

期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数

例:某档位获配总股数 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

关于本页

本页展示 珞石机器人(03752)的中签预测:基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导,公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数;其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准,再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准;随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权;临近截止(进度约九成后)默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配,估计各申购档位的期望中签手数,并结合分配手法系数 α(人均分配至比例分配)给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α,覆盖 cibo 的默认预测,查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源:港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告;孖展数据(孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细)来自捷利交易宝(TradeGo),倍数仅覆盖已上报券商,捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新;中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中签率预测、中签画像与入通分析