HASHKEY HLDGS 03887
新股中签预测
1.7803.52%( -0.065 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
291.5亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
69.0亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
65.5亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
34.5亿 |
| 5 |  华盛 |
11.5亿 |
| 6 |  长桥 |
10.1亿 |
| 7 |  信诚 |
8.0亿 |
| 8 |  盈立 |
7.1亿 |
| 10 | 卓锐证券 | 6.3亿 |
| 11 |  TradeGo |
5.4亿 |
| 12 |  艾德 |
7534万 |
| 13 |  Funderstone |
3191万 |
| 14 |  盈宝 |
3147万 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-09T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-12-09T10:08:20+08:00 | 0.04090909090909091 |
| 2025-12-09T10:08:25+08:00 | 0.33995215311004784 |
| 2025-12-09T10:08:39+08:00 | 2.408732057416268 |
| 2025-12-09T10:08:48+08:00 | 3.2101674641148326 |
| 2025-12-09T10:08:58+08:00 | 3.2555622009569376 |
| 2025-12-09T11:00:40+08:00 | 3.4163277511961723 |
| 2025-12-09T11:05:46+08:00 | 3.9407296650717702 |
| 2025-12-09T11:05:58+08:00 | 5.2794258373205745 |
| 2025-12-09T11:06:10+08:00 | 10.147846889952152 |
| 2025-12-09T12:06:21+08:00 | 10.158133971291866 |
| 2025-12-09T12:06:33+08:00 | 10.7816985645933 |
| 2025-12-09T12:06:36+08:00 | 11.28397129186603 |
| 2025-12-09T12:06:42+08:00 | 13.682296650717703 |
| 2025-12-09T13:44:47+08:00 | 13.685107655502392 |
| 2025-12-09T13:44:58+08:00 | 14.057117224880383 |
| 2025-12-09T13:45:11+08:00 | 15.313098086124402 |
| 2025-12-09T13:45:37+08:00 | 15.31543062200957 |
| 2025-12-09T14:00:38+08:00 | 15.316985645933014 |
| 2025-12-09T14:01:25+08:00 | 15.661303827751196 |
| 2025-12-09T14:06:26+08:00 | 16.020933014354068 |
| 2025-12-09T14:06:37+08:00 | 17.45633971291866 |
| 2025-12-09T15:00:59+08:00 | 18.054425837320576 |
| 2025-12-09T15:01:18+08:00 | 18.06232057416268 |
| 2025-12-09T15:04:03+08:00 | 18.247488038277513 |
| 2025-12-09T15:04:12+08:00 | 18.801913875598085 |
| 2025-12-09T15:06:46+08:00 | 20.09377990430622 |
| 2025-12-09T16:14:14+08:00 | 20.101734449760766 |
| 2025-12-09T16:14:36+08:00 | 20.758253588516748 |
| 2025-12-09T16:14:51+08:00 | 23.16255980861244 |
| 2025-12-09T16:15:03+08:00 | 23.517583732057417 |
| 2025-12-09T16:42:05+08:00 | 23.816626794258372 |
| 2025-12-09T17:02:09+08:00 | 23.82488038277512 |
| 2025-12-09T17:03:31+08:00 | 25.64461722488038 |
| 2025-12-09T17:03:39+08:00 | 25.81255980861244 |
| 2025-12-09T17:36:43+08:00 | 28.58767942583732 |
| 2025-12-09T17:37:14+08:00 | 33.671411483253586 |
| 2025-12-09T18:06:23+08:00 | 34.2694976076555 |
| 2025-12-09T18:06:44+08:00 | 34.71238038277512 |
| 2025-12-09T18:07:10+08:00 | 35.31273923444976 |
| 2025-12-09T18:07:16+08:00 | 35.720215311004786 |
| 2025-12-09T18:07:26+08:00 | 37.855382775119615 |
| 2025-12-09T18:09:04+08:00 | 40.495514354066984 |
| 2025-12-09T21:48:44+08:00 | 40.513636363636365 |
| 2025-12-09T21:48:59+08:00 | 40.91662679425837 |
| 2025-12-09T21:49:04+08:00 | 41.58444976076555 |
| 2025-12-09T21:49:14+08:00 | 42.64306220095694 |
| 2025-12-09T21:49:28+08:00 | 42.87565789473684 |
| 2025-12-09T21:49:33+08:00 | 42.862081339712915 |
| 2025-12-09T21:49:43+08:00 | 45.22452153110048 |
| 2025-12-09T21:50:22+08:00 | 45.32494019138756 |
| 2025-12-09T21:50:26+08:00 | 46.02775119617225 |
| 2025-12-09T21:50:35+08:00 | 47.98947368421052 |
| 2025-12-09T22:06:01+08:00 | 48.08056220095694 |
| 2025-12-09T22:06:06+08:00 | 49.79874401913876 |
| 2025-12-09T22:06:17+08:00 | 51.293959330143544 |
| 2025-12-10T08:37:16+08:00 | 51.38403110047847 |
| 2025-12-10T08:37:30+08:00 | 51.55023923444976 |
| 2025-12-10T08:37:41+08:00 | 52.332775119617224 |
| 2025-12-10T08:37:44+08:00 | 54.21824162679426 |
| 2025-12-10T08:39:09+08:00 | 64.72063397129186 |
| 2025-12-10T08:39:21+08:00 | 64.72063397129186 |
| 2025-12-10T09:05:29+08:00 | 65.06674641148325 |
| 2025-12-10T09:05:49+08:00 | 66.02757177033493 |
| 2025-12-10T09:06:00+08:00 | 69.19144736842105 |
| 2025-12-10T09:06:17+08:00 | 69.19192583732057 |
| 2025-12-10T09:06:47+08:00 | 71.59539473684211 |
| 2025-12-10T09:50:21+08:00 | 72.79156698564593 |
| 2025-12-10T10:06:04+08:00 | 73.66578947368421 |
| 2025-12-10T10:06:35+08:00 | 73.70394736842105 |
| 2025-12-10T10:06:48+08:00 | 74.50005980861243 |
| 2025-12-10T10:07:17+08:00 | 78.3936004784689 |
| 2025-12-10T11:04:52+08:00 | 78.71106459330143 |
| 2025-12-10T11:05:01+08:00 | 78.85293062200957 |
| 2025-12-10T11:05:13+08:00 | 79.97936602870813 |
| 2025-12-10T11:05:36+08:00 | 82.95185406698565 |
| 2025-12-10T11:39:03+08:00 | 83.54994019138756 |
| 2025-12-10T12:03:42+08:00 | 83.60753588516747 |
| 2025-12-10T12:04:08+08:00 | 84.45155502392345 |
| 2025-12-10T12:04:37+08:00 | 84.62900717703349 |
| 2025-12-10T12:09:17+08:00 | 88.43881578947368 |
| 2025-12-10T13:50:09+08:00 | 88.4924043062201 |
| 2025-12-10T13:50:22+08:00 | 89.03648325358851 |
| 2025-12-10T13:50:38+08:00 | 91.8714114832536 |
| 2025-12-10T13:50:49+08:00 | 92.4694976076555 |
| 2025-12-10T13:51:10+08:00 | 92.565490430622 |
| 2025-12-10T14:05:07+08:00 | 92.89383971291866 |
| 2025-12-10T14:05:34+08:00 | 92.91716507177034 |
| 2025-12-10T14:05:48+08:00 | 93.14862440191388 |
| 2025-12-10T14:06:00+08:00 | 95.80412679425838 |
| 2025-12-10T14:09:40+08:00 | 98.54605263157895 |
| 2025-12-10T15:11:18+08:00 | 98.72781100478468 |
| 2025-12-10T15:11:27+08:00 | 99.72613636363636 |
| 2025-12-10T15:11:40+08:00 | 105.88044258373206 |
| 2025-12-10T15:11:57+08:00 | 106.46267942583732 |
| 2025-12-10T15:53:25+08:00 | 109.15406698564593 |
| 2025-12-10T16:07:42+08:00 | 109.23403110047848 |
| 2025-12-10T16:07:54+08:00 | 109.75149521531101 |
| 2025-12-10T16:08:06+08:00 | 112.84958133971291 |
| 2025-12-10T16:08:13+08:00 | 113.02398325358851 |
| 2025-12-10T17:15:50+08:00 | 113.03971291866029 |
| 2025-12-10T17:16:07+08:00 | 113.71267942583732 |
| 2025-12-10T17:16:17+08:00 | 117.88732057416269 |
| 2025-12-10T17:16:33+08:00 | 118.20568181818182 |
| 2025-12-10T17:49:56+08:00 | 129.27027511961722 |
| 2025-12-10T18:03:34+08:00 | 129.86836124401913 |
| 2025-12-10T18:03:40+08:00 | 129.87332535885167 |
| 2025-12-10T18:03:56+08:00 | 129.93887559808613 |
| 2025-12-10T18:04:06+08:00 | 130.33570574162678 |
| 2025-12-10T18:05:37+08:00 | 133.4549043062201 |
| 2025-12-10T18:05:50+08:00 | 137.3005980861244 |
| 2025-12-10T20:04:41+08:00 | 137.3096889952153 |
| 2025-12-10T20:05:02+08:00 | 137.41465311004785 |
| 2025-12-10T20:05:07+08:00 | 137.77075358851675 |
| 2025-12-10T20:05:17+08:00 | 141.9453947368421 |
| 2025-12-10T20:05:36+08:00 | 141.9717105263158 |
| 2025-12-10T20:05:46+08:00 | 142.9769138755981 |
| 2025-12-10T20:05:57+08:00 | 146.1407894736842 |
| 2025-12-10T21:34:20+08:00 | 146.20257177033494 |
| 2025-12-10T21:34:29+08:00 | 147.76297846889952 |
| 2025-12-10T21:34:39+08:00 | 149.58116028708133 |
| 2025-12-10T22:12:35+08:00 | 149.55412679425837 |
| 2025-12-10T22:13:05+08:00 | 150.13983253588518 |
| 2025-12-10T22:13:16+08:00 | 152.55011961722488 |
| 2025-12-11T08:44:09+08:00 | 152.51722488038277 |
| 2025-12-11T08:44:12+08:00 | 152.55819377990431 |
| 2025-12-11T08:44:29+08:00 | 163.13833732057415 |
| 2025-12-11T08:44:50+08:00 | 163.6729066985646 |
| 2025-12-11T08:44:56+08:00 | 165.6785885167464 |
| 2025-12-11T08:45:05+08:00 | 165.6785885167464 |
| 2025-12-11T09:22:01+08:00 | 165.0436004784689 |
| 2025-12-11T09:22:11+08:00 | 168.23738038277511 |
| 2025-12-11T09:23:23+08:00 | 168.21776315789472 |
| 2025-12-11T09:23:47+08:00 | 169.41393540669856 |
| 2025-12-11T09:23:58+08:00 | 169.35496411483254 |
| 2025-12-11T09:25:54+08:00 | 171.93068181818182 |
| 2025-12-11T10:00:03+08:00 | 173.157476076555 |
| 2025-12-11T10:08:52+08:00 | 175.18068181818182 |
| 2025-12-11T10:09:05+08:00 | 181.07183014354067 |
| 2025-12-11T10:09:19+08:00 | 181.05275119617224 |
| 2025-12-11T11:05:54+08:00 | 181.19282296650718 |
| 2025-12-11T11:06:13+08:00 | 181.18265550239235 |
| 2025-12-11T11:06:48+08:00 | 181.9898923444976 |
| 2025-12-11T11:07:11+08:00 | 185.47673444976076 |
| 2025-12-11T11:50:59+08:00 | 186.0748205741627 |
| 2025-12-11T12:02:08+08:00 | 186.1974880382775 |
| 2025-12-11T12:09:47+08:00 | 186.19455741626794 |
| 2025-12-11T12:09:53+08:00 | 185.9464114832536 |
| 2025-12-11T12:10:16+08:00 | 187.16650717703348 |
| 2025-12-11T13:45:29+08:00 | 187.25233253588516 |
| 2025-12-11T13:45:49+08:00 | 187.34348086124402 |
| 2025-12-11T13:46:04+08:00 | 189.64013157894738 |
| 2025-12-11T13:46:37+08:00 | 189.6788875598086 |
| 2025-12-11T14:04:12+08:00 | 189.75364832535885 |
| 2025-12-11T14:04:23+08:00 | 189.86764354066986 |
| 2025-12-11T14:04:47+08:00 | 190.5627990430622 |
| 2025-12-11T14:05:38+08:00 | 193.00299043062202 |
| 2025-12-11T14:06:39+08:00 | 194.84653110047847 |
| 2025-12-11T15:24:18+08:00 | 195.21070574162678 |
| 2025-12-11T15:24:34+08:00 | 198.9008971291866 |
| 2025-12-11T15:24:52+08:00 | 198.9840909090909 |
| 2025-12-11T15:25:33+08:00 | 199.11363636363637 |
| 2025-12-11T15:45:25+08:00 | 200.9078947368421 |
| 2025-12-11T16:10:07+08:00 | 201.2348086124402 |
| 2025-12-11T16:10:54+08:00 | 204.94294258373205 |
| 2025-12-11T17:14:47+08:00 | 206.34694976076554 |
| 2025-12-11T17:15:15+08:00 | 210.10293062200958 |
| 2025-12-11T17:31:25+08:00 | 210.70101674641148 |
| 2025-12-11T17:31:42+08:00 | 236.41872009569377 |
| 2025-12-11T18:02:40+08:00 | 238.8784090909091 |
| 2025-12-11T18:03:47+08:00 | 240.10627990430623 |
| 2025-12-11T18:06:56+08:00 | 242.18761961722487 |
| 2025-12-11T20:07:25+08:00 | 242.20221291866028 |
| 2025-12-11T20:07:30+08:00 | 243.5891148325359 |
| 2025-12-11T20:07:46+08:00 | 247.29724880382776 |
| 2025-12-11T20:08:05+08:00 | 247.32123205741627 |
| 2025-12-11T20:08:11+08:00 | 247.99204545454546 |
| 2025-12-11T20:08:24+08:00 | 248.73965311004784 |
| 2025-12-11T21:42:41+08:00 | 248.76614832535884 |
| 2025-12-11T21:42:46+08:00 | 249.59641148325358 |
| 2025-12-11T21:42:59+08:00 | 253.7172248803828 |
| 2025-12-11T22:03:25+08:00 | 253.75867224880383 |
| 2025-12-11T22:03:30+08:00 | 254.28965311004785 |
| 2025-12-11T22:12:40+08:00 | 256.7896531100478 |
| 2025-12-12T07:33:03+08:00 | 256.80873205741625 |
| 2025-12-12T07:33:06+08:00 | 256.81704545454545 |
| 2025-12-12T07:33:10+08:00 | 256.8165669856459 |
| 2025-12-12T07:35:31+08:00 | 256.8165669856459 |
| 2025-12-12T07:35:49+08:00 | 258.79922248803825 |
| 2025-12-12T08:21:00+08:00 | 260.52661483253587 |
| 2025-12-12T08:22:11+08:00 | 285.52661483253587 |
| 2025-12-12T08:22:33+08:00 | 285.5257177033493 |
| 2025-12-12T09:29:40+08:00 | 284.2802033492823 |
| 2025-12-12T09:29:47+08:00 | 295.26704545454544 |
| 2025-12-12T09:29:56+08:00 | 296.1043660287081 |
| 2025-12-12T10:15:43+08:00 | 299.8468899521531 |
| 2025-12-12T10:15:49+08:00 | 298.41148325358853 |
| 2025-12-12T10:16:05+08:00 | 298.56166267942587 |
| 2025-12-12T14:03:03+08:00 | 305.13 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 393.71x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.576, 乙组 α=0.676) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
HASHKEY HLDGS中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 HASHKEY HLDGS（03887）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
