来福谐波 03952
新股中签预测
26.5006.23%( -1.760 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
1140.3亿 |
| 2 |  老虎 |
178.0亿 |
| 3 |  华泰 |
80.5亿 |
| 4 |  辉立 |
46.0亿 |
| 5 |  盈立 |
37.1亿 |
| 6 |  华盛 |
32.0亿 |
| 7 |  致富 |
31.4亿 |
| 8 |  复星 |
26.3亿 |
| 9 |  熊猫 |
11.7亿 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-22T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-06-22T10:16:27+08:00 | 0.005395057431256526 |
| 2026-06-22T10:16:33+08:00 | 0.015315001740341106 |
| 2026-06-22T10:16:40+08:00 | 0.023146536721197354 |
| 2026-06-22T10:16:48+08:00 | 0.5104420466411417 |
| 2026-06-22T11:14:53+08:00 | 0.5226244343891403 |
| 2026-06-22T11:17:49+08:00 | 0.5377654020187956 |
| 2026-06-22T11:23:26+08:00 | 0.7292029237730595 |
| 2026-06-22T12:10:42+08:00 | 0.7316394013226593 |
| 2026-06-22T12:12:26+08:00 | 0.8304907761921336 |
| 2026-06-22T12:14:59+08:00 | 0.8402366863905325 |
| 2026-06-22T12:16:57+08:00 | 1.0838844413505047 |
| 2026-06-22T12:22:00+08:00 | 1.0852767142359903 |
| 2026-06-22T13:39:27+08:00 | 1.1061608075182736 |
| 2026-06-22T14:18:20+08:00 | 1.1689871214758092 |
| 2026-06-22T14:18:23+08:00 | 1.3219631047685347 |
| 2026-06-22T14:20:55+08:00 | 1.3221371388792202 |
| 2026-06-22T14:21:08+08:00 | 1.3270100939784197 |
| 2026-06-22T14:21:11+08:00 | 1.372955099199443 |
| 2026-06-22T14:24:52+08:00 | 1.407761921336582 |
| 2026-06-22T14:24:55+08:00 | 1.4425687434737209 |
| 2026-06-22T14:27:30+08:00 | 1.4457013574660633 |
| 2026-06-22T14:27:32+08:00 | 1.4467455621301775 |
| 2026-06-22T14:29:27+08:00 | 1.4495301079011487 |
| 2026-06-22T14:29:30+08:00 | 1.6028541594152454 |
| 2026-06-22T14:38:28+08:00 | 1.6129481378350157 |
| 2026-06-22T15:13:04+08:00 | 1.6209537069265576 |
| 2026-06-22T15:13:36+08:00 | 1.6244343891402715 |
| 2026-06-22T15:14:47+08:00 | 1.625826662025757 |
| 2026-06-22T15:15:48+08:00 | 1.6268708666898712 |
| 2026-06-22T15:15:53+08:00 | 1.68795683954055 |
| 2026-06-22T15:17:49+08:00 | 1.8619909502262444 |
| 2026-06-22T16:04:23+08:00 | 1.8776540201879568 |
| 2026-06-22T16:08:46+08:00 | 1.9049773755656108 |
| 2026-06-22T16:10:10+08:00 | 1.905499477897668 |
| 2026-06-22T16:12:56+08:00 | 1.9063696484510964 |
| 2026-06-22T16:16:10+08:00 | 2.0978071702053604 |
| 2026-06-22T17:04:04+08:00 | 2.215628263139575 |
| 2026-06-22T17:06:44+08:00 | 2.2173686042464325 |
| 2026-06-22T17:07:56+08:00 | 2.6334841628959276 |
| 2026-06-22T17:10:06+08:00 | 3.399234249912983 |
| 2026-06-22T17:11:55+08:00 | 3.408458057779325 |
| 2026-06-22T18:01:36+08:00 | 3.5624782457361643 |
| 2026-06-22T18:07:18+08:00 | 3.5920640445527323 |
| 2026-06-22T18:11:12+08:00 | 3.600765750087017 |
| 2026-06-22T18:12:48+08:00 | 3.6244343891402715 |
| 2026-06-22T18:13:57+08:00 | 4.459798120431604 |
| 2026-06-22T18:14:03+08:00 | 4.464671075530804 |
| 2026-06-22T18:14:35+08:00 | 6.727114514444831 |
| 2026-06-22T18:14:41+08:00 | 6.733727810650888 |
| 2026-06-22T20:25:31+08:00 | 6.7493908806126 |
| 2026-06-22T20:27:26+08:00 | 6.780891054646711 |
| 2026-06-22T20:28:37+08:00 | 6.794987817612252 |
| 2026-06-22T20:30:40+08:00 | 6.807344239470936 |
| 2026-06-22T20:31:41+08:00 | 7.3602506091193876 |
| 2026-06-22T20:35:22+08:00 | 7.725722241559346 |
| 2026-06-22T21:22:57+08:00 | 7.723807866341803 |
| 2026-06-22T22:05:42+08:00 | 7.724678036895232 |
| 2026-06-22T22:08:52+08:00 | 7.7506091193874 |
| 2026-06-22T22:09:58+08:00 | 7.939088061260007 |
| 2026-06-22T22:12:18+08:00 | 8.113122171945701 |
| 2026-06-23T08:37:38+08:00 | 8.77445179255134 |
| 2026-06-23T08:40:29+08:00 | 8.784893839192481 |
| 2026-06-23T08:40:35+08:00 | 8.780717020536025 |
| 2026-06-23T08:43:37+08:00 | 8.85120083536373 |
| 2026-06-23T08:43:42+08:00 | 9.138357117995128 |
| 2026-06-23T09:17:18+08:00 | 9.297250261051166 |
| 2026-06-23T09:17:30+08:00 | 9.308040375913679 |
| 2026-06-23T09:17:36+08:00 | 9.383919248172642 |
| 2026-06-23T09:17:43+08:00 | 9.726940480334145 |
| 2026-06-23T09:17:50+08:00 | 9.72798468499826 |
| 2026-06-23T09:17:55+08:00 | 10.006439262095371 |
| 2026-06-23T10:10:07+08:00 | 10.017577445179255 |
| 2026-06-23T10:11:07+08:00 | 10.02018795683954 |
| 2026-06-23T10:12:31+08:00 | 10.067699269056735 |
| 2026-06-23T10:12:55+08:00 | 10.06996171249565 |
| 2026-06-23T10:14:51+08:00 | 10.67908109989558 |
| 2026-06-23T11:02:41+08:00 | 10.703967977723634 |
| 2026-06-23T11:03:31+08:00 | 10.743473720849286 |
| 2026-06-23T11:04:44+08:00 | 10.752001392272886 |
| 2026-06-23T11:06:33+08:00 | 11.391750783153498 |
| 2026-06-23T11:11:34+08:00 | 11.592064044552732 |
| 2026-06-23T11:12:03+08:00 | 11.58649495301079 |
| 2026-06-23T11:13:15+08:00 | 12.300034806822136 |
| 2026-06-23T12:13:09+08:00 | 12.241559345631744 |
| 2026-06-23T12:14:49+08:00 | 12.242255482074487 |
| 2026-06-23T12:15:12+08:00 | 12.588583362339019 |
| 2026-06-23T12:16:01+08:00 | 12.579881656804734 |
| 2026-06-23T12:16:31+08:00 | 12.552384267316395 |
| 2026-06-23T12:17:00+08:00 | 12.65680473372781 |
| 2026-06-23T13:40:18+08:00 | 12.664810302819353 |
| 2026-06-23T13:40:50+08:00 | 12.667594848590324 |
| 2026-06-23T13:41:27+08:00 | 12.708666898712147 |
| 2026-06-23T13:42:10+08:00 | 12.710407239819004 |
| 2026-06-23T13:43:26+08:00 | 12.711451444483119 |
| 2026-06-23T13:43:56+08:00 | 13.024712843717369 |
| 2026-06-23T14:02:01+08:00 | 13.033762617473025 |
| 2026-06-23T14:02:52+08:00 | 13.035851026801254 |
| 2026-06-23T14:04:34+08:00 | 13.206752523494606 |
| 2026-06-23T14:05:52+08:00 | 13.221719457013574 |
| 2026-06-23T14:07:35+08:00 | 13.378350156630699 |
| 2026-06-23T14:09:02+08:00 | 13.669161155586496 |
| 2026-06-23T15:14:01+08:00 | 13.67664462234598 |
| 2026-06-23T15:15:18+08:00 | 13.691437521754263 |
| 2026-06-23T15:15:54+08:00 | 13.705012182387748 |
| 2026-06-23T15:16:38+08:00 | 13.712495649147233 |
| 2026-06-23T15:18:06+08:00 | 14.164984336930038 |
| 2026-06-23T15:18:49+08:00 | 14.192481726418379 |
| 2026-06-23T16:35:06+08:00 | 14.200835363731292 |
| 2026-06-23T16:36:25+08:00 | 14.237208492864601 |
| 2026-06-23T16:38:50+08:00 | 14.238252697528715 |
| 2026-06-23T16:39:38+08:00 | 14.26923076923077 |
| 2026-06-23T16:40:29+08:00 | 14.360772711451444 |
| 2026-06-23T16:41:21+08:00 | 14.882875043508527 |
| 2026-06-23T17:01:48+08:00 | 15.146362687086668 |
| 2026-06-23T17:02:26+08:00 | 15.163418029933867 |
| 2026-06-23T17:07:22+08:00 | 15.237730595196659 |
| 2026-06-23T17:08:01+08:00 | 15.246258266620258 |
| 2026-06-23T17:08:34+08:00 | 15.282805429864254 |
| 2026-06-23T17:09:30+08:00 | 15.630873651235643 |
| 2026-06-23T18:07:23+08:00 | 16.174556213017752 |
| 2026-06-23T18:10:51+08:00 | 16.206056387051863 |
| 2026-06-23T18:12:01+08:00 | 16.20866689871215 |
| 2026-06-23T18:12:59+08:00 | 17.426905673512007 |
| 2026-06-23T18:14:43+08:00 | 17.388966237382526 |
| 2026-06-23T18:16:40+08:00 | 17.458579881656803 |
| 2026-06-23T18:17:20+08:00 | 17.460668290985033 |
| 2026-06-23T18:17:59+08:00 | 17.475287156282633 |
| 2026-06-23T20:16:16+08:00 | 17.510964148973198 |
| 2026-06-23T20:16:56+08:00 | 17.514270797076225 |
| 2026-06-23T20:18:04+08:00 | 17.70240167072746 |
| 2026-06-23T20:18:53+08:00 | 17.713713887922033 |
| 2026-06-23T20:19:58+08:00 | 17.866863905325445 |
| 2026-06-23T20:21:16+08:00 | 17.875391576749042 |
| 2026-06-23T20:22:07+08:00 | 18.29307344239471 |
| 2026-06-23T21:06:43+08:00 | 18.306648103028195 |
| 2026-06-23T22:04:21+08:00 | 18.301427079707622 |
| 2026-06-23T22:05:03+08:00 | 18.343021232161504 |
| 2026-06-23T22:06:27+08:00 | 18.35172293769579 |
| 2026-06-23T22:07:45+08:00 | 18.769404803341455 |
| 2026-06-24T08:32:48+08:00 | 19.448137835015665 |
| 2026-06-24T08:33:51+08:00 | 19.449530107901147 |
| 2026-06-24T08:34:05+08:00 | 19.46206056387052 |
| 2026-06-24T08:35:21+08:00 | 19.48224852071006 |
| 2026-06-24T08:35:43+08:00 | 19.503480682213713 |
| 2026-06-24T08:39:30+08:00 | 19.503480682213713 |
| 2026-06-24T09:15:45+08:00 | 19.58162199791159 |
| 2026-06-24T09:17:02+08:00 | 19.79986077271145 |
| 2026-06-24T09:17:36+08:00 | 19.811347024016708 |
| 2026-06-24T09:18:08+08:00 | 19.891228680821442 |
| 2026-06-24T09:19:04+08:00 | 19.967803689523148 |
| 2026-06-24T09:20:35+08:00 | 20.14183780020884 |
| 2026-06-24T09:28:12+08:00 | 20.293943612948137 |
| 2026-06-24T10:08:21+08:00 | 20.34476157326836 |
| 2026-06-24T10:09:06+08:00 | 20.361990950226243 |
| 2026-06-24T10:09:39+08:00 | 20.392969021928298 |
| 2026-06-24T10:10:30+08:00 | 20.397493908806126 |
| 2026-06-24T10:11:18+08:00 | 20.57152801949182 |
| 2026-06-24T11:22:45+08:00 | 20.838844413505047 |
| 2026-06-24T11:23:10+08:00 | 20.95440306300035 |
| 2026-06-24T11:24:01+08:00 | 21.43978419770275 |
| 2026-06-24T11:24:52+08:00 | 21.46327880264532 |
| 2026-06-24T11:25:23+08:00 | 21.68604246432301 |
| 2026-06-24T11:25:59+08:00 | 22.782457361642884 |
| 2026-06-24T12:10:54+08:00 | 22.824051514096762 |
| 2026-06-24T12:12:03+08:00 | 22.815871910894536 |
| 2026-06-24T12:12:24+08:00 | 22.819874695440305 |
| 2026-06-24T12:12:55+08:00 | 22.93821789070658 |
| 2026-06-24T12:13:54+08:00 | 23.05012182387748 |
| 2026-06-24T12:15:04+08:00 | 25.068917507831536 |
| 2026-06-24T13:47:31+08:00 | 25.160633484162897 |
| 2026-06-24T13:47:51+08:00 | 25.160807518273582 |
| 2026-06-24T13:48:17+08:00 | 25.20971110337626 |
| 2026-06-24T13:48:43+08:00 | 27.298120431604595 |
| 2026-06-24T13:49:18+08:00 | 27.452488687782804 |
| 2026-06-24T13:49:47+08:00 | 27.474242951618518 |
| 2026-06-24T14:03:40+08:00 | 27.653324051514097 |
| 2026-06-24T14:04:39+08:00 | 28.145144448311868 |
| 2026-06-24T14:05:05+08:00 | 28.145492516533242 |
| 2026-06-24T14:05:36+08:00 | 28.347198050817962 |
| 2026-06-24T14:05:58+08:00 | 28.3807866341803 |
| 2026-06-24T14:07:02+08:00 | 29.964497041420117 |
| 2026-06-24T14:07:56+08:00 | 30.29098503306648 |
| 2026-06-24T15:11:50+08:00 | 30.33344935607379 |
| 2026-06-24T15:12:38+08:00 | 30.475635224504003 |
| 2026-06-24T15:13:01+08:00 | 30.490428123912288 |
| 2026-06-24T15:13:32+08:00 | 30.55099199443091 |
| 2026-06-24T15:14:30+08:00 | 30.618169161155585 |
| 2026-06-24T15:14:54+08:00 | 33.08945353289245 |
| 2026-06-24T16:18:44+08:00 | 33.30194918203968 |
| 2026-06-24T16:19:56+08:00 | 33.31256526279151 |
| 2026-06-24T16:20:32+08:00 | 33.632439958231814 |
| 2026-06-24T16:21:40+08:00 | 34.680473372781066 |
| 2026-06-24T16:23:22+08:00 | 36.38600765750087 |
| 2026-06-24T16:23:43+08:00 | 36.45979812043161 |
| 2026-06-24T17:00:41+08:00 | 39.766446223459795 |
| 2026-06-24T17:01:12+08:00 | 43.51531500174034 |
| 2026-06-24T17:01:50+08:00 | 43.59937347720153 |
| 2026-06-24T17:03:56+08:00 | 71.97598329272537 |
| 2026-06-24T17:04:28+08:00 | 72.10146188652976 |
| 2026-06-24T17:05:06+08:00 | 72.20849286460147 |
| 2026-06-24T17:05:37+08:00 | 213.52419074138533 |
| 2026-06-24T18:06:22+08:00 | 240.31691611555866 |
| 2026-06-24T18:16:08+08:00 | 316.89192481726417 |
| 2026-06-24T18:16:42+08:00 | 343.27427775844063 |
| 2026-06-24T18:17:56+08:00 | 344.62756700313264 |
| 2026-06-24T18:18:20+08:00 | 367.93717368604246 |
| 2026-06-24T18:18:58+08:00 | 368.41054646710757 |
| 2026-06-24T18:19:31+08:00 | 368.79933867037937 |
| 2026-06-24T18:20:07+08:00 | 374.0203619909502 |
| 2026-06-24T18:20:47+08:00 | 480.16376609815524 |
| 2026-06-24T20:13:48+08:00 | 485.8712147580926 |
| 2026-06-24T20:14:42+08:00 | 495.9707622694048 |
| 2026-06-24T20:15:56+08:00 | 498.56804733727813 |
| 2026-06-24T20:16:31+08:00 | 502.8609467455621 |
| 2026-06-24T20:17:04+08:00 | 529.6735120083537 |
| 2026-06-24T20:17:51+08:00 | 686.9655412460843 |
| 2026-06-24T21:41:25+08:00 | 694.5221023320571 |
| 2026-06-24T22:04:33+08:00 | 718.6754263835712 |
| 2026-06-24T22:05:12+08:00 | 723.0605638705186 |
| 2026-06-24T22:06:00+08:00 | 761.353289244692 |
| 2026-06-24T22:06:54+08:00 | 1003.9394361294814 |
| 2026-06-25T08:41:22+08:00 | 1033.110163592064 |
| 2026-06-25T08:41:53+08:00 | 1115.1066829098504 |
| 2026-06-25T08:43:39+08:00 | 1118.5440306300036 |
| 2026-06-25T08:43:57+08:00 | 1123.7513052558302 |
| 2026-06-25T08:44:45+08:00 | 1897.6287852419075 |
| 2026-06-25T08:49:16+08:00 | 1897.6287852419075 |
| 2026-06-25T09:04:01+08:00 | 1936.7864601461886 |
| 2026-06-25T09:05:24+08:00 | 1966.6270449008005 |
| 2026-06-25T09:06:05+08:00 | 1968.0706578489385 |
| 2026-06-25T09:06:39+08:00 | 1984.753567699269 |
| 2026-06-25T09:07:03+08:00 | 2171.579185520362 |
| 2026-06-25T09:07:35+08:00 | 2207.3336233901846 |
| 2026-06-25T09:08:05+08:00 | 2233.059867734076 |
| 2026-06-25T09:09:57+08:00 | 2344.3867037939435 |
| 2026-06-25T10:07:38+08:00 | 2352.2182387748 |
| 2026-06-25T10:08:09+08:00 | 2394.466759484859 |
| 2026-06-25T10:09:18+08:00 | 2750.4709363035154 |
| 2026-06-25T11:06:13+08:00 | 2755.7168465019145 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 4571.99x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.580, 乙组 α=0.680) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
来福谐波中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
18C特专科技
《主板规则》第18C章，为特专科技公司设立。机制A及机制B不适用。初订分配份额为5%，回补门槛：10倍至不足50倍→10%，50倍或以上→20%。根据第18C.08条，发售股份总数中至少50%须由配售部分的独立定价投资者认购。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 来福谐波（03952）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
