MERDEKAGOLD-DRS 06228
新股中签预测
21.8001.58%( +0.340 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
2.5亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
1.8亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
1.7亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
2224万 |
| 5 |  TradeGo |
1506万 |
| 6 |  致富 |
1379万 |
| 7 |  盈立 |
1045万 |
| 8 |  信诚 |
1000万 |
| 9 |  复星 |
900万 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-17T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-06-17T10:12:36+08:00 | 0.0003773268489015596 |
| 2026-06-17T10:12:43+08:00 | 0.0007127284923696126 |
| 2026-06-17T11:15:51+08:00 | 0.0014254569847392251 |
| 2026-06-17T11:18:12+08:00 | 0.2273184638604729 |
| 2026-06-17T12:15:10+08:00 | 0.22740231427133992 |
| 2026-06-17T12:16:36+08:00 | 0.22803119235284253 |
| 2026-06-17T12:18:57+08:00 | 0.22807311755827603 |
| 2026-06-17T12:19:52+08:00 | 0.23075633070602045 |
| 2026-06-17T13:43:21+08:00 | 0.23092403152775448 |
| 2026-06-17T13:44:35+08:00 | 0.23096595673318798 |
| 2026-06-17T13:46:00+08:00 | 0.23377494549723293 |
| 2026-06-17T14:07:58+08:00 | 0.23381687070266644 |
| 2026-06-17T14:08:49+08:00 | 0.23385879590809994 |
| 2026-06-17T14:10:33+08:00 | 0.24568170384034882 |
| 2026-06-17T15:04:40+08:00 | 0.24987422438369947 |
| 2026-06-17T15:07:38+08:00 | 0.25079657890323664 |
| 2026-06-17T15:09:17+08:00 | 0.2512158309575717 |
| 2026-06-17T15:11:25+08:00 | 0.25540835150092234 |
| 2026-06-17T16:27:09+08:00 | 0.25545027670635584 |
| 2026-06-17T16:27:56+08:00 | 0.2620744591648499 |
| 2026-06-17T16:31:14+08:00 | 0.2634999161495891 |
| 2026-06-17T16:32:38+08:00 | 0.2676924366929398 |
| 2026-06-17T16:35:49+08:00 | 0.26819553915814187 |
| 2026-06-17T17:01:23+08:00 | 0.2694532953211471 |
| 2026-06-17T17:02:36+08:00 | 0.2697467717591816 |
| 2026-06-17T17:04:19+08:00 | 0.27372966627536477 |
| 2026-06-17T17:07:29+08:00 | 0.2779221868187154 |
| 2026-06-17T18:04:33+08:00 | 0.27796411202414895 |
| 2026-06-17T18:05:22+08:00 | 0.278467214489351 |
| 2026-06-17T18:07:43+08:00 | 0.27859299010565153 |
| 2026-06-17T18:08:55+08:00 | 0.2774610095589468 |
| 2026-06-17T18:09:47+08:00 | 0.2816535301022975 |
| 2026-06-17T18:11:35+08:00 | 0.281779305718598 |
| 2026-06-17T20:22:06+08:00 | 0.7848817709206775 |
| 2026-06-17T20:23:35+08:00 | 0.785091396947845 |
| 2026-06-17T20:24:48+08:00 | 0.7854267985913131 |
| 2026-06-17T20:27:03+08:00 | 0.797249706523562 |
| 2026-06-17T20:33:38+08:00 | 0.8056347476102633 |
| 2026-06-17T22:24:58+08:00 | 0.8061378500754653 |
| 2026-06-17T22:27:28+08:00 | 0.8072279054167365 |
| 2026-06-17T22:28:57+08:00 | 0.8156129465034379 |
| 2026-06-18T09:16:05+08:00 | 0.8158644977360389 |
| 2026-06-18T09:16:10+08:00 | 0.8158644977360389 |
| 2026-06-18T09:16:16+08:00 | 0.8175834311588127 |
| 2026-06-18T09:16:26+08:00 | 0.8217759517021633 |
| 2026-06-18T09:16:35+08:00 | 0.8172061043099111 |
| 2026-06-18T09:16:41+08:00 | 0.8174995807479457 |
| 2026-06-18T09:16:47+08:00 | 0.8174995807479457 |
| 2026-06-18T10:08:04+08:00 | 0.8178349823914137 |
| 2026-06-18T10:08:09+08:00 | 0.8179188328022807 |
| 2026-06-18T10:08:15+08:00 | 0.8186734865000839 |
| 2026-06-18T11:19:30+08:00 | 0.8189669629381184 |
| 2026-06-18T11:20:35+08:00 | 0.8190088881435519 |
| 2026-06-18T11:22:37+08:00 | 0.8205601207445916 |
| 2026-06-18T11:24:01+08:00 | 0.8208535971826262 |
| 2026-06-18T11:25:50+08:00 | 0.8250461177259768 |
| 2026-06-18T12:16:12+08:00 | 0.8250880429314104 |
| 2026-06-18T12:19:02+08:00 | 0.8252138185477109 |
| 2026-06-18T12:20:35+08:00 | 0.8255911453966125 |
| 2026-06-18T14:05:50+08:00 | 0.8256330706020459 |
| 2026-06-18T14:05:52+08:00 | 0.8256749958074795 |
| 2026-06-18T14:10:21+08:00 | 0.835988596344122 |
| 2026-06-18T14:14:16+08:00 | 0.8370367264799597 |
| 2026-06-18T14:16:09+08:00 | 0.8370786516853933 |
| 2026-06-18T14:16:14+08:00 | 0.8372463525071273 |
| 2026-06-18T14:19:25+08:00 | 0.8386718094918665 |
| 2026-06-18T15:11:20+08:00 | 0.838881435519034 |
| 2026-06-18T15:11:26+08:00 | 0.8390072111353346 |
| 2026-06-18T15:11:32+08:00 | 0.839049136340768 |
| 2026-06-18T15:11:39+08:00 | 0.8391329867516351 |
| 2026-06-18T15:56:09+08:00 | 0.9607160825088042 |
| 2026-06-18T16:12:06+08:00 | 0.9609676337414054 |
| 2026-06-18T16:14:29+08:00 | 0.9613030353848734 |
| 2026-06-18T17:47:56+08:00 | 0.9673402649672983 |
| 2026-06-18T17:50:01+08:00 | 0.9664598356531947 |
| 2026-06-18T17:51:47+08:00 | 0.9667952372966627 |
| 2026-06-18T17:53:12+08:00 | 0.9683464698977025 |
| 2026-06-18T17:54:05+08:00 | 0.9851165520711052 |
| 2026-06-18T17:55:51+08:00 | 1.0480043602213651 |
| 2026-06-18T18:10:41+08:00 | 1.0481720610430991 |
| 2026-06-18T18:10:48+08:00 | 1.0535804125440216 |
| 2026-06-18T18:10:55+08:00 | 1.0536642629548885 |
| 2026-06-18T18:11:03+08:00 | 1.0546285426798592 |
| 2026-06-18T18:11:14+08:00 | 1.0588210632232098 |
| 2026-06-18T18:15:28+08:00 | 1.059994968975348 |
| 2026-06-18T20:30:00+08:00 | 1.0609173234948852 |
| 2026-06-18T20:31:08+08:00 | 1.0612527251383532 |
| 2026-06-18T20:34:46+08:00 | 1.0658225725306054 |
| 2026-06-18T20:36:21+08:00 | 1.070015093073956 |
| 2026-06-18T21:34:30+08:00 | 1.0708535971826263 |
| 2026-06-18T22:08:23+08:00 | 1.525406674492705 |
| 2026-06-18T22:09:25+08:00 | 1.5250293476438035 |
| 2026-06-18T22:09:43+08:00 | 1.5263290290122422 |
| 2026-06-18T22:10:58+08:00 | 1.5934093577058528 |
| 2026-06-19T09:17:09+08:00 | 1.6227570015093074 |
| 2026-06-19T09:17:14+08:00 | 1.6437196042260607 |
| 2026-06-19T09:20:15+08:00 | 1.6439292302532282 |
| 2026-06-19T09:21:33+08:00 | 1.6400721113533456 |
| 2026-06-19T09:22:36+08:00 | 1.6401140365587792 |
| 2026-06-19T09:24:53+08:00 | 1.6354603387556599 |
| 2026-06-19T09:31:16+08:00 | 1.6374727486164682 |
| 2026-06-19T10:17:04+08:00 | 1.6378920006708033 |
| 2026-06-19T10:20:50+08:00 | 1.6404913634076808 |
| 2026-06-19T10:24:43+08:00 | 1.648876404494382 |
| 2026-06-19T11:41:54+08:00 | 1.6489183296998156 |
| 2026-06-19T11:43:20+08:00 | 1.6491279557269831 |
| 2026-06-19T11:44:39+08:00 | 1.6501341606573872 |
| 2026-06-19T11:45:35+08:00 | 1.6754569847392253 |
| 2026-06-19T12:08:01+08:00 | 1.6755827603555258 |
| 2026-06-19T12:10:23+08:00 | 1.675289283917491 |
| 2026-06-19T12:11:29+08:00 | 1.676672815696797 |
| 2026-06-19T12:14:27+08:00 | 1.6808653362401476 |
| 2026-06-19T14:17:56+08:00 | 1.6821650176085863 |
| 2026-06-19T14:18:00+08:00 | 1.6822907932248867 |
| 2026-06-19T14:21:04+08:00 | 1.6820392419922858 |
| 2026-06-19T14:24:15+08:00 | 1.6821650176085863 |
| 2026-06-19T14:27:32+08:00 | 1.6947425792386384 |
| 2026-06-19T15:19:16+08:00 | 1.6963357370451115 |
| 2026-06-19T15:21:07+08:00 | 1.7089132986751636 |
| 2026-06-19T17:18:30+08:00 | 1.708955223880597 |
| 2026-06-19T17:20:31+08:00 | 1.709039074291464 |
| 2026-06-19T17:20:35+08:00 | 1.7077393929230253 |
| 2026-06-19T17:23:42+08:00 | 1.7087455978534294 |
| 2026-06-19T22:47:50+08:00 | 1.7092487003186316 |
| 2026-06-19T22:58:42+08:00 | 1.7096679523729665 |
| 2026-06-19T23:06:05+08:00 | 1.7097937279892672 |
| 2026-06-19T23:06:09+08:00 | 1.7098356531947005 |
| 2026-06-19T23:13:44+08:00 | 1.7108418581251048 |
| 2026-06-19T23:17:25+08:00 | 1.723419419755157 |
| 2026-06-19T23:25:27+08:00 | 1.7236709709877578 |
| 2026-06-20T10:19:50+08:00 | 1.7236709709877578 |
| 2026-06-20T10:23:03+08:00 | 1.7236709709877578 |
| 2026-06-20T10:24:36+08:00 | 1.7014925373134329 |
| 2026-06-20T10:25:30+08:00 | 1.703085695119906 |
| 2026-06-20T10:28:02+08:00 | 1.7044273016937783 |
| 2026-06-20T10:28:53+08:00 | 1.7044273016937783 |
| 2026-06-20T10:32:56+08:00 | 1.7295824249538823 |
| 2026-06-20T12:20:31+08:00 | 1.7296662753647494 |
| 2026-06-20T12:23:09+08:00 | 1.7300855274190843 |
| 2026-06-20T12:24:01+08:00 | 1.7310078819386214 |
| 2026-06-20T12:24:52+08:00 | 1.7309240315277545 |
| 2026-06-20T14:15:34+08:00 | 1.731049807144055 |
| 2026-06-20T14:16:32+08:00 | 1.7311755827603554 |
| 2026-06-20T14:18:00+08:00 | 1.731217507965789 |
| 2026-06-20T18:32:22+08:00 | 1.7311755827603554 |
| 2026-06-20T18:33:37+08:00 | 1.7313432835820894 |
| 2026-06-20T18:35:59+08:00 | 1.7323494885124937 |
| 2026-06-20T18:38:46+08:00 | 1.736835485493879 |
| 2026-06-20T18:39:56+08:00 | 1.7365000838504108 |
| 2026-06-20T20:12:32+08:00 | 1.7365420090558443 |
| 2026-06-20T20:13:40+08:00 | 1.7365000838504108 |
| 2026-06-20T20:18:42+08:00 | 1.7490776454804629 |
| 2026-06-20T21:09:50+08:00 | 1.7487422438369948 |
| 2026-06-20T22:08:30+08:00 | 1.7495388227402315 |
| 2026-06-20T22:09:36+08:00 | 1.7453463021968807 |
| 2026-06-21T09:52:32+08:00 | 1.7453463021968807 |
| 2026-06-21T09:52:39+08:00 | 1.7454720778131814 |
| 2026-06-21T09:52:56+08:00 | 1.7454720778131814 |
| 2026-06-21T09:53:03+08:00 | 1.7455559282240483 |
| 2026-06-21T09:53:20+08:00 | 1.7455559282240483 |
| 2026-06-21T09:53:28+08:00 | 1.7456397786349154 |
| 2026-06-21T10:09:12+08:00 | 1.7456817038403487 |
| 2026-06-21T10:09:24+08:00 | 1.7457236290457823 |
| 2026-06-21T12:36:58+08:00 | 1.746687908770753 |
| 2026-06-21T12:39:27+08:00 | 1.746855609592487 |
| 2026-06-21T12:41:27+08:00 | 1.7471490860305217 |
| 2026-06-21T12:44:52+08:00 | 1.747358712057689 |
| 2026-06-21T12:44:58+08:00 | 1.7484906926043937 |
| 2026-06-21T12:48:45+08:00 | 1.744298172061043 |
| 2026-06-21T15:48:30+08:00 | 1.7443820224719102 |
| 2026-06-21T15:51:30+08:00 | 1.7445497232936442 |
| 2026-06-21T15:52:18+08:00 | 1.7486164682206944 |
| 2026-06-21T15:53:33+08:00 | 1.7499161495891329 |
| 2026-06-21T18:31:55+08:00 | 1.7502515512326011 |
| 2026-06-21T18:34:00+08:00 | 1.747191011235955 |
| 2026-06-21T18:35:02+08:00 | 1.747526412879423 |
| 2026-06-21T18:36:06+08:00 | 1.7477779641120241 |
| 2026-06-21T18:37:30+08:00 | 1.7603555257420762 |
| 2026-06-21T20:07:45+08:00 | 1.7612359550561798 |
| 2026-06-21T20:08:55+08:00 | 1.7611521046453127 |
| 2026-06-21T20:09:58+08:00 | 1.7611940298507462 |
| 2026-06-21T20:11:18+08:00 | 1.7863491531108502 |
| 2026-06-21T22:09:23+08:00 | 1.8066409525406675 |
| 2026-06-21T22:11:01+08:00 | 1.806766728156968 |
| 2026-06-21T22:11:33+08:00 | 1.8075633070602046 |
| 2026-06-21T22:15:37+08:00 | 1.8452959919503606 |
| 2026-06-21T22:15:42+08:00 | 1.8411034714070098 |
| 2026-06-22T09:09:55+08:00 | 1.841355022639611 |
| 2026-06-22T09:10:08+08:00 | 1.841355022639611 |
| 2026-06-22T09:10:14+08:00 | 1.841355022639611 |
| 2026-06-22T09:10:21+08:00 | 1.8640784839845714 |
| 2026-06-22T09:10:35+08:00 | 1.8766560456146235 |
| 2026-06-22T09:10:41+08:00 | 1.8772429984906926 |
| 2026-06-22T09:10:48+08:00 | 1.8790038571188998 |
| 2026-06-22T09:11:07+08:00 | 1.8878920006708033 |
| 2026-06-22T09:11:13+08:00 | 1.8907429146402817 |
| 2026-06-22T09:11:20+08:00 | 1.8908686902565823 |
| 2026-06-22T10:11:11+08:00 | 1.8914975683380848 |
| 2026-06-22T10:11:18+08:00 | 1.8932165017608586 |
| 2026-06-22T10:11:24+08:00 | 1.8937196042260607 |
| 2026-06-22T10:11:31+08:00 | 1.8971993962770417 |
| 2026-06-22T10:11:43+08:00 | 1.9349320811671977 |
| 2026-06-22T11:14:30+08:00 | 1.942310917323495 |
| 2026-06-22T11:18:15+08:00 | 1.9431913466375985 |
| 2026-06-22T11:19:54+08:00 | 1.943400972664766 |
| 2026-06-22T11:21:03+08:00 | 1.9451618312929733 |
| 2026-06-22T11:22:21+08:00 | 1.9460841858125104 |
| 2026-06-22T11:23:41+08:00 | 2.0550897199396276 |
| 2026-06-22T11:51:31+08:00 | 2.056012074459165 |
| 2026-06-22T12:08:55+08:00 | 2.0568925037732684 |
| 2026-06-22T12:11:24+08:00 | 2.057185980211303 |
| 2026-06-22T12:13:02+08:00 | 2.057689082676505 |
| 2026-06-22T12:15:17+08:00 | 2.058234110347141 |
| 2026-06-22T12:16:39+08:00 | 2.049849069260439 |
| 2026-06-22T12:21:40+08:00 | 2.0513583766560455 |
| 2026-06-22T14:18:02+08:00 | 2.0541673654200907 |
| 2026-06-22T14:18:05+08:00 | 2.0545446922689923 |
| 2026-06-22T14:22:36+08:00 | 2.054586617474426 |
| 2026-06-22T14:22:39+08:00 | 2.054460841858125 |
| 2026-06-22T14:25:05+08:00 | 2.1383112527251384 |
| 2026-06-22T14:25:07+08:00 | 2.1215411705517355 |
| 2026-06-22T14:25:20+08:00 | 2.1206188160321986 |
| 2026-06-22T14:25:23+08:00 | 2.121247694113701 |
| 2026-06-22T14:25:31+08:00 | 2.1225893006875736 |
| 2026-06-22T14:25:34+08:00 | 2.123218178769076 |
| 2026-06-22T14:35:05+08:00 | 2.1277041757504613 |
| 2026-06-22T14:38:46+08:00 | 2.151098440382358 |
| 2026-06-22T15:06:55+08:00 | 2.0672480295153446 |
| 2026-06-22T15:11:00+08:00 | 2.067541505953379 |
| 2026-06-22T15:11:24+08:00 | 2.092864330035217 |
| 2026-06-22T15:12:40+08:00 | 2.0966375985242327 |
| 2026-06-22T15:14:54+08:00 | 2.096931074962267 |
| 2026-06-22T15:16:24+08:00 | 2.1019620996142883 |
| 2026-06-22T15:17:44+08:00 | 2.105316116048969 |
| 2026-06-22T15:34:00+08:00 | 2.1091732349488512 |
| 2026-06-22T16:04:04+08:00 | 2.1104309911118566 |
| 2026-06-22T16:05:42+08:00 | 2.1126949522052656 |
| 2026-06-22T16:05:45+08:00 | 2.113281905081335 |
| 2026-06-22T16:09:15+08:00 | 2.2175918161998993 |
| 2026-06-22T16:13:02+08:00 | 2.2188914975683383 |
| 2026-06-22T16:15:54+08:00 | 2.2021214153949353 |
| 2026-06-22T16:26:04+08:00 | 2.202163340600369 |
| 2026-06-22T17:03:45+08:00 | 2.209039074291464 |
| 2026-06-22T17:06:55+08:00 | 2.208703672647996 |
| 2026-06-22T17:08:24+08:00 | 2.229247023310414 |
| 2026-06-22T17:09:49+08:00 | 2.321482475264129 |
| 2026-06-22T17:12:02+08:00 | 2.322488680194533 |
| 2026-06-22T17:14:10+08:00 | 2.3227821566325675 |
| 2026-06-22T17:19:46+08:00 | 2.3239979875901393 |
| 2026-06-22T17:46:26+08:00 | 1.869906087539829 |
| 2026-06-22T17:50:19+08:00 | 1.8688998826094247 |
| 2026-06-22T18:01:12+08:00 | 1.8704930404158981 |
| 2026-06-22T18:07:43+08:00 | 1.8896528592990105 |
| 2026-06-22T18:09:17+08:00 | 2.0783162837497904 |
| 2026-06-22T18:09:22+08:00 | 2.0900972664766058 |
| 2026-06-22T18:09:28+08:00 | 2.0913130974341776 |
| 2026-06-22T18:09:34+08:00 | 2.1087959080999497 |
| 2026-06-22T18:09:47+08:00 | 2.251341606573872 |
| 2026-06-22T20:18:45+08:00 | 2.2510481301358376 |
| 2026-06-22T20:25:09+08:00 | 2.25155123260104 |
| 2026-06-22T20:26:55+08:00 | 2.2555760523226565 |
| 2026-06-22T20:28:46+08:00 | 2.2593073956062386 |
| 2026-06-22T20:33:11+08:00 | 2.3358628207278214 |
| 2026-06-22T20:34:56+08:00 | 2.32747777964112 |
| 2026-06-22T21:23:05+08:00 | 2.328022807311756 |
| 2026-06-22T22:08:30+08:00 | 2.3284001341606575 |
| 2026-06-22T22:10:45+08:00 | 2.4073452959919504 |
| 2026-06-22T22:12:00+08:00 | 2.516350830119068 |
| 2026-06-23T08:35:19+08:00 | 2.5160154284755993 |
| 2026-06-23T08:37:14+08:00 | 2.6627536474928726 |
| 2026-06-23T08:41:39+08:00 | 2.7048465537481134 |
| 2026-06-23T08:41:45+08:00 | 2.72656381016267 |
| 2026-06-23T09:11:30+08:00 | 2.738847895354687 |
| 2026-06-23T09:11:37+08:00 | 2.758510816703002 |
| 2026-06-23T09:11:42+08:00 | 2.773016937782995 |
| 2026-06-23T09:11:56+08:00 | 2.735284252892839 |
| 2026-06-23T09:20:08+08:00 | 2.7349907764548047 |
| 2026-06-23T10:07:33+08:00 | 2.7339845715244007 |
| 2026-06-23T10:13:38+08:00 | 2.7322656381016266 |
| 2026-06-23T10:14:28+08:00 | 2.7993459667952374 |
| 2026-06-23T11:06:58+08:00 | 2.8473084018111687 |
| 2026-06-23T11:12:36+08:00 | 2.8484403823578734 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 4.42x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.588, 乙组 α=0.688) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
MERDEKAGOLD-DRS中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 MERDEKAGOLD-DRS（06228）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
