五一视界 06651
新股中签预测
50.2506.77%( -3.650 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
29.6亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
26.0亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
4.2亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
1.4亿 |
| 5 |  华盛 |
6250万 |
| 6 |  盈立 |
4216万 |
| 7 |  信诚 |
2000万 |
| 9 | 卓锐证券 | 1614万 |
| 10 |  长桥 |
1103万 |
| 11 |  TradeGo |
997万 |
| 12 |  Funderstone |
388万 |
| 13 |  艾德 |
328万 |
| 14 |  盈宝 |
9万 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-18T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-12-18T10:24:14+08:00 | 0.008479212253829322 |
| 2025-12-18T10:25:37+08:00 | 0.199945295404814 |
| 2025-12-18T11:09:22+08:00 | 0.2149890590809628 |
| 2025-12-18T11:10:12+08:00 | 0.21717724288840262 |
| 2025-12-18T11:10:19+08:00 | 0.22565645514223195 |
| 2025-12-18T11:11:04+08:00 | 1.0735776805251642 |
| 2025-12-18T12:03:22+08:00 | 1.076859956236324 |
| 2025-12-18T12:05:07+08:00 | 1.2989606126914661 |
| 2025-12-18T12:05:51+08:00 | 1.299781181619256 |
| 2025-12-18T12:06:08+08:00 | 0.9715536105032823 |
| 2025-12-18T13:47:14+08:00 | 0.9833150984682714 |
| 2025-12-18T13:47:31+08:00 | 1.010667396061269 |
| 2025-12-18T13:49:33+08:00 | 1.0144967177242887 |
| 2025-12-18T13:49:40+08:00 | 1.024617067833698 |
| 2025-12-18T14:04:00+08:00 | 1.0333698030634573 |
| 2025-12-18T14:04:17+08:00 | 1.0445842450765865 |
| 2025-12-18T14:04:59+08:00 | 1.0670131291028446 |
| 2025-12-18T14:06:02+08:00 | 2.0790481400437635 |
| 2025-12-18T14:08:31+08:00 | 2.091083150984683 |
| 2025-12-18T14:49:12+08:00 | 2.1184354485776806 |
| 2025-12-18T15:31:41+08:00 | 2.1219912472647704 |
| 2025-12-18T15:32:30+08:00 | 2.137582056892779 |
| 2025-12-18T15:33:06+08:00 | 2.153719912472648 |
| 2025-12-18T15:33:33+08:00 | 2.7554704595185995 |
| 2025-12-18T16:56:06+08:00 | 2.7582056892778994 |
| 2025-12-18T16:56:09+08:00 | 2.762582056892779 |
| 2025-12-18T16:57:21+08:00 | 2.771061269146608 |
| 2025-12-18T16:57:45+08:00 | 2.774617067833698 |
| 2025-12-18T17:00:49+08:00 | 2.7768052516411377 |
| 2025-12-18T17:04:55+08:00 | 2.789660831509847 |
| 2025-12-18T17:05:36+08:00 | 2.801422319474836 |
| 2025-12-18T17:06:43+08:00 | 2.8834792122538295 |
| 2025-12-18T18:10:17+08:00 | 4.4152078774617065 |
| 2025-12-18T18:10:35+08:00 | 4.442833698030634 |
| 2025-12-18T18:11:13+08:00 | 4.49562363238512 |
| 2025-12-18T18:12:38+08:00 | 4.604485776805252 |
| 2025-12-18T18:13:17+08:00 | 4.610503282275711 |
| 2025-12-18T18:13:29+08:00 | 4.692560175054704 |
| 2025-12-18T18:16:46+08:00 | 4.699398249452954 |
| 2025-12-18T20:24:11+08:00 | 4.706509846827133 |
| 2025-12-18T20:26:16+08:00 | 4.768873085339169 |
| 2025-12-18T20:27:16+08:00 | 4.774890590809628 |
| 2025-12-18T20:27:41+08:00 | 4.936269146608315 |
| 2025-12-18T20:28:07+08:00 | 4.963621444201313 |
| 2025-12-18T20:28:31+08:00 | 5.319201312910285 |
| 2025-12-18T21:38:45+08:00 | 5.322210065645514 |
| 2025-12-18T21:38:55+08:00 | 5.486323851203501 |
| 2025-12-18T22:06:19+08:00 | 5.927789934354486 |
| 2025-12-18T22:06:52+08:00 | 5.941739606126915 |
| 2025-12-18T22:07:03+08:00 | 6.269967177242888 |
| 2025-12-19T08:37:54+08:00 | 6.300875273522976 |
| 2025-12-19T08:37:57+08:00 | 6.351750547045952 |
| 2025-12-19T08:40:10+08:00 | 6.679978118161926 |
| 2025-12-19T08:45:21+08:00 | 6.700765864332604 |
| 2025-12-19T08:46:40+08:00 | 6.700765864332604 |
| 2025-12-19T09:03:11+08:00 | 6.762855579868709 |
| 2025-12-19T09:04:05+08:00 | 6.7598468271334795 |
| 2025-12-19T09:07:16+08:00 | 6.677789934354486 |
| 2025-12-19T09:09:46+08:00 | 6.692833698030634 |
| 2025-12-19T09:39:33+08:00 | 6.706509846827133 |
| 2025-12-19T10:13:58+08:00 | 6.723468271334792 |
| 2025-12-19T10:15:50+08:00 | 6.714442013129103 |
| 2025-12-19T10:16:03+08:00 | 6.7319474835886215 |
| 2025-12-19T10:16:10+08:00 | 7.196936542669584 |
| 2025-12-19T11:00:36+08:00 | 7.211159737417943 |
| 2025-12-19T11:08:08+08:00 | 7.216083150984683 |
| 2025-12-19T11:08:56+08:00 | 7.25437636761488 |
| 2025-12-19T11:10:49+08:00 | 7.4458424507658645 |
| 2025-12-19T12:04:09+08:00 | 7.4570568927789935 |
| 2025-12-19T12:05:43+08:00 | 7.469638949671772 |
| 2025-12-19T12:06:14+08:00 | 7.474015317286652 |
| 2025-12-19T12:06:36+08:00 | 7.774890590809628 |
| 2025-12-19T13:42:01+08:00 | 7.785010940919038 |
| 2025-12-19T13:42:52+08:00 | 7.8011487964989055 |
| 2025-12-19T13:43:32+08:00 | 7.805251641137856 |
| 2025-12-19T13:43:54+08:00 | 7.832603938730854 |
| 2025-12-19T13:44:33+08:00 | 7.887308533916849 |
| 2025-12-19T14:09:12+08:00 | 7.891684901531729 |
| 2025-12-19T14:10:02+08:00 | 7.99917943107221 |
| 2025-12-19T14:10:15+08:00 | 8.026531728665208 |
| 2025-12-19T14:11:06+08:00 | 7.972100656455142 |
| 2025-12-19T14:12:56+08:00 | 8.002735229759299 |
| 2025-12-19T15:08:01+08:00 | 8.00300875273523 |
| 2025-12-19T15:08:18+08:00 | 8.01531728665208 |
| 2025-12-19T15:09:09+08:00 | 8.016684901531729 |
| 2025-12-19T15:09:19+08:00 | 8.098741794310722 |
| 2025-12-19T16:00:35+08:00 | 8.11214442013129 |
| 2025-12-19T16:01:57+08:00 | 8.358315098468271 |
| 2025-12-19T16:04:17+08:00 | 8.358588621444202 |
| 2025-12-19T16:04:48+08:00 | 8.36761487964989 |
| 2025-12-19T16:05:37+08:00 | 8.88730853391685 |
| 2025-12-19T17:03:13+08:00 | 8.894420131291028 |
| 2025-12-19T17:03:57+08:00 | 8.893052516411379 |
| 2025-12-19T17:05:04+08:00 | 8.967450765864333 |
| 2025-12-19T17:05:40+08:00 | 9.678610503282275 |
| 2025-12-19T17:37:35+08:00 | 9.705962800875273 |
| 2025-12-19T17:38:24+08:00 | 9.897428884026258 |
| 2025-12-19T18:09:32+08:00 | 9.901258205689278 |
| 2025-12-19T18:10:57+08:00 | 9.845185995623632 |
| 2025-12-19T18:11:23+08:00 | 10.050328227571116 |
| 2025-12-19T18:11:28+08:00 | 10.679431072210066 |
| 2025-12-19T18:19:53+08:00 | 10.735503282275712 |
| 2025-12-19T20:19:48+08:00 | 10.73522975929978 |
| 2025-12-19T20:21:25+08:00 | 10.74398249452954 |
| 2025-12-19T20:21:34+08:00 | 11.044857768052516 |
| 2025-12-19T20:22:36+08:00 | 11.060448577680525 |
| 2025-12-19T20:22:57+08:00 | 11.13074398249453 |
| 2025-12-19T20:23:06+08:00 | 11.048687089715536 |
| 2025-12-19T22:20:38+08:00 | 11.041575492341357 |
| 2025-12-19T22:20:51+08:00 | 11.043763676148796 |
| 2025-12-19T22:21:21+08:00 | 10.903993435448578 |
| 2025-12-19T22:21:40+08:00 | 10.906181619256017 |
| 2025-12-19T22:21:55+08:00 | 10.960886214442013 |
| 2025-12-19T22:22:16+08:00 | 11.070295404814004 |
| 2025-12-19T23:05:54+08:00 | 11.069748358862144 |
| 2025-12-19T23:06:32+08:00 | 11.070021881838075 |
| 2025-12-20T10:13:03+08:00 | 11.092997811816193 |
| 2025-12-20T10:13:07+08:00 | 11.093544857768052 |
| 2025-12-20T10:24:20+08:00 | 11.099835886214443 |
| 2025-12-20T10:24:24+08:00 | 11.150437636761488 |
| 2025-12-20T10:24:43+08:00 | 11.423960612691467 |
| 2025-12-20T10:24:46+08:00 | 11.588074398249454 |
| 2025-12-20T10:29:23+08:00 | 11.688183807439826 |
| 2025-12-20T10:29:26+08:00 | 11.691739606126914 |
| 2025-12-20T10:34:01+08:00 | 11.691739606126914 |
| 2025-12-20T12:34:29+08:00 | 11.675328227571116 |
| 2025-12-20T12:37:10+08:00 | 12.167669584245077 |
| 2025-12-20T12:37:31+08:00 | 12.195021881838075 |
| 2025-12-20T12:39:47+08:00 | 12.196663019693654 |
| 2025-12-20T12:40:12+08:00 | 12.225656455142232 |
| 2025-12-20T15:53:28+08:00 | 12.226477024070022 |
| 2025-12-20T15:53:33+08:00 | 12.228391684901531 |
| 2025-12-20T15:53:38+08:00 | 12.230032822757112 |
| 2025-12-20T15:56:26+08:00 | 12.394146608315099 |
| 2025-12-20T15:58:29+08:00 | 12.437089715536105 |
| 2025-12-20T15:58:33+08:00 | 12.437363238512035 |
| 2025-12-20T15:58:37+08:00 | 12.449671772428884 |
| 2025-12-20T16:00:27+08:00 | 12.49206783369803 |
| 2025-12-20T21:42:51+08:00 | 12.550328227571116 |
| 2025-12-20T21:42:55+08:00 | 12.556345733041576 |
| 2025-12-20T21:42:59+08:00 | 12.558533916849015 |
| 2025-12-20T21:43:04+08:00 | 12.562089715536105 |
| 2025-12-20T21:50:30+08:00 | 12.564551422319475 |
| 2025-12-20T21:50:36+08:00 | 12.564277899343544 |
| 2025-12-20T21:50:40+08:00 | 12.564824945295404 |
| 2025-12-20T21:51:31+08:00 | 12.6195295404814 |
| 2025-12-20T21:51:36+08:00 | 12.701586433260394 |
| 2025-12-20T21:51:42+08:00 | 12.728938730853391 |
| 2025-12-20T21:51:47+08:00 | 12.86570021881838 |
| 2025-12-20T21:51:52+08:00 | 12.893052516411379 |
| 2025-12-20T21:51:56+08:00 | 12.920404814004376 |
| 2025-12-20T21:56:51+08:00 | 12.920951859956237 |
| 2025-12-20T21:56:54+08:00 | 12.921498905908097 |
| 2025-12-20T21:56:58+08:00 | 12.923140043763675 |
| 2025-12-20T22:05:51+08:00 | 12.924781181619256 |
| 2025-12-21T10:05:12+08:00 | 12.919857768052516 |
| 2025-12-21T10:06:41+08:00 | 12.943107221006565 |
| 2025-12-21T10:08:28+08:00 | 12.970185995623632 |
| 2025-12-21T10:09:16+08:00 | 12.806072210065645 |
| 2025-12-21T10:09:43+08:00 | 12.833424507658643 |
| 2025-12-21T10:10:06+08:00 | 12.860776805251641 |
| 2025-12-21T12:22:57+08:00 | 12.862964989059082 |
| 2025-12-21T12:24:46+08:00 | 12.908096280087527 |
| 2025-12-21T12:24:59+08:00 | 12.99015317286652 |
| 2025-12-21T12:25:21+08:00 | 13.017505470459518 |
| 2025-12-21T16:30:38+08:00 | 13.018052516411379 |
| 2025-12-21T16:32:00+08:00 | 13.022428884026258 |
| 2025-12-21T16:33:30+08:00 | 13.208698030634574 |
| 2025-12-21T16:34:46+08:00 | 13.345459518599561 |
| 2025-12-21T16:35:09+08:00 | 13.536925601750546 |
| 2025-12-21T18:12:14+08:00 | 13.541849015317286 |
| 2025-12-21T18:14:02+08:00 | 13.560722100656456 |
| 2025-12-21T18:14:21+08:00 | 13.533369803063458 |
| 2025-12-21T20:08:13+08:00 | 13.534190371991247 |
| 2025-12-21T20:09:16+08:00 | 13.566192560175054 |
| 2025-12-21T20:09:25+08:00 | 13.429431072210066 |
| 2025-12-21T20:10:26+08:00 | 13.480032822757112 |
| 2025-12-21T20:10:35+08:00 | 13.671498905908097 |
| 2025-12-21T21:09:41+08:00 | 13.673413566739606 |
| 2025-12-21T21:09:51+08:00 | 13.837527352297593 |
| 2025-12-21T22:11:45+08:00 | 13.838621444201314 |
| 2025-12-21T22:12:04+08:00 | 13.687089715536105 |
| 2025-12-21T22:12:14+08:00 | 13.796498905908097 |
| 2025-12-22T08:58:44+08:00 | 14.179431072210066 |
| 2025-12-22T08:58:47+08:00 | 14.268873085339168 |
| 2025-12-22T09:00:33+08:00 | 14.569748358862144 |
| 2025-12-22T09:01:19+08:00 | 14.602571115973742 |
| 2025-12-22T09:02:01+08:00 | 14.602571115973742 |
| 2025-12-22T09:05:13+08:00 | 14.61159737417943 |
| 2025-12-22T09:05:54+08:00 | 14.61460612691466 |
| 2025-12-22T09:07:40+08:00 | 14.942833698030634 |
| 2025-12-22T10:04:52+08:00 | 14.970185995623632 |
| 2025-12-22T10:05:18+08:00 | 14.99206783369803 |
| 2025-12-22T10:06:29+08:00 | 14.818927789934355 |
| 2025-12-22T10:06:55+08:00 | 14.704595185995624 |
| 2025-12-22T10:07:17+08:00 | 15.415754923413568 |
| 2025-12-22T11:10:16+08:00 | 15.166028446389497 |
| 2025-12-22T11:10:41+08:00 | 15.688730853391684 |
| 2025-12-22T11:11:39+08:00 | 16.12171772428884 |
| 2025-12-22T11:12:22+08:00 | 18.227844638949673 |
| 2025-12-22T12:20:48+08:00 | 18.235776805251643 |
| 2025-12-22T12:22:17+08:00 | 18.306892778993436 |
| 2025-12-22T12:23:00+08:00 | 19.23687089715536 |
| 2025-12-22T12:24:16+08:00 | 19.27160831509847 |
| 2025-12-22T13:51:40+08:00 | 20.201586433260395 |
| 2025-12-22T13:52:25+08:00 | 20.415207877461707 |
| 2025-12-22T13:52:50+08:00 | 20.414660831509845 |
| 2025-12-22T13:53:26+08:00 | 20.430798687089716 |
| 2025-12-22T14:02:47+08:00 | 20.437363238512035 |
| 2025-12-22T14:04:11+08:00 | 20.423413566739605 |
| 2025-12-22T14:05:32+08:00 | 20.51066739606127 |
| 2025-12-22T14:06:04+08:00 | 22.233862144420133 |
| 2025-12-22T14:08:21+08:00 | 22.63894967177243 |
| 2025-12-22T14:10:38+08:00 | 23.103665207877462 |
| 2025-12-22T15:20:19+08:00 | 23.11214442013129 |
| 2025-12-22T15:20:48+08:00 | 23.12527352297593 |
| 2025-12-22T15:24:29+08:00 | 23.399343544857768 |
| 2025-12-22T15:25:04+08:00 | 23.727571115973742 |
| 2025-12-22T16:05:10+08:00 | 23.880470459518598 |
| 2025-12-22T16:07:13+08:00 | 24.208698030634572 |
| 2025-12-22T16:09:13+08:00 | 24.48222100656455 |
| 2025-12-22T17:12:51+08:00 | 24.722647702407002 |
| 2025-12-22T17:13:39+08:00 | 27.157002188183807 |
| 2025-12-22T17:59:40+08:00 | 41.98194748358862 |
| 2025-12-22T18:00:29+08:00 | 42.423413566739605 |
| 2025-12-22T18:08:36+08:00 | 43.086433260393875 |
| 2025-12-22T18:08:54+08:00 | 46.943107221006564 |
| 2025-12-22T18:12:31+08:00 | 47.536925601750546 |
| 2025-12-22T19:58:52+08:00 | 48.796498905908095 |
| 2025-12-22T19:59:06+08:00 | 52.461706783369806 |
| 2025-12-22T20:05:01+08:00 | 52.683533916849015 |
| 2025-12-22T20:05:14+08:00 | 56.29403719912472 |
| 2025-12-22T21:31:33+08:00 | 57.39879649890591 |
| 2025-12-22T21:31:46+08:00 | 60.35284463894967 |
| 2025-12-22T22:10:18+08:00 | 60.5839715536105 |
| 2025-12-22T22:10:30+08:00 | 64.65946389496717 |
| 2025-12-23T08:56:03+08:00 | 65.57904814004377 |
| 2025-12-23T08:56:15+08:00 | 65.57904814004377 |
| 2025-12-23T08:56:40+08:00 | 67.34409190371991 |
| 2025-12-23T08:56:48+08:00 | 87.01039387308533 |
| 2025-12-23T09:10:43+08:00 | 87.79403719912473 |
| 2025-12-23T09:10:49+08:00 | 95.6167943107221 |
| 2025-12-23T10:11:57+08:00 | 96.71088621444201 |
| 2025-12-23T10:12:03+08:00 | 96.71088621444201 |
| 2025-12-23T10:12:08+08:00 | 98.11132385120351 |
| 2025-12-23T10:12:15+08:00 | 114.13977024070022 |
| 2025-12-23T10:59:39+08:00 | 116.91110503282276 |
| 2025-12-23T11:07:25+08:00 | 171.4789387308534 |
| 2025-12-23T16:46:54+08:00 | 171.93 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 256.01x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.510, 乙组 α=0.610) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
五一视界中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
18C特专科技
《主板规则》第18C章，为特专科技公司设立。机制A及机制B不适用。初订分配份额为5%，回补门槛：10倍至不足50倍→10%，50倍或以上→20%。根据第18C.08条，发售股份总数中至少50%须由配售部分的独立定价投资者认购。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 五一视界（06651）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
