鲟龙科技 06715
新股中签预测
47.5800.13%( -0.060 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
1068.3亿 |
| 2 |  老虎 |
164.1亿 |
| 3 |  辉立 |
72.0亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
66.1亿 |
| 5 |  致富 |
23.5亿 |
| 6 |  华盛 |
18.0亿 |
| 7 |  复星 |
14.8亿 |
| 8 |  熊猫 |
10.6亿 |
| 9 |  盈立 |
10.2亿 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-22T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-06-22T10:17:08+08:00 | 0.0025950855567269484 |
| 2026-06-22T10:17:15+08:00 | 0.004541399724272159 |
| 2026-06-22T10:17:22+08:00 | 0.010299245803260077 |
| 2026-06-22T11:14:50+08:00 | 0.029924580326007623 |
| 2026-06-22T11:17:51+08:00 | 0.03373611223745033 |
| 2026-06-22T11:23:22+08:00 | 0.1472711053442543 |
| 2026-06-22T12:09:59+08:00 | 0.14775768388614063 |
| 2026-06-22T12:12:29+08:00 | 0.16738301840888817 |
| 2026-06-22T12:14:53+08:00 | 0.1679506933744222 |
| 2026-06-22T12:16:59+08:00 | 0.1760603357391939 |
| 2026-06-22T12:21:57+08:00 | 0.17962857837969345 |
| 2026-06-22T14:13:37+08:00 | 0.18773822074446517 |
| 2026-06-22T14:18:33+08:00 | 0.19373935609439624 |
| 2026-06-22T14:18:36+08:00 | 0.19471251317816884 |
| 2026-06-22T14:22:18+08:00 | 0.19657773092206635 |
| 2026-06-22T14:23:39+08:00 | 0.26145486984024 |
| 2026-06-22T14:23:41+08:00 | 0.3101127240288703 |
| 2026-06-22T14:27:10+08:00 | 0.31019382045251803 |
| 2026-06-22T14:30:10+08:00 | 0.3109236882653475 |
| 2026-06-22T14:30:13+08:00 | 0.34903900737977456 |
| 2026-06-22T14:41:31+08:00 | 0.3643662314491931 |
| 2026-06-22T15:13:01+08:00 | 0.3660692563457951 |
| 2026-06-22T15:14:28+08:00 | 0.3663125456167383 |
| 2026-06-22T15:15:56+08:00 | 0.6529884032114184 |
| 2026-06-22T15:17:53+08:00 | 0.6773173303057335 |
| 2026-06-22T16:04:20+08:00 | 0.6810477657935285 |
| 2026-06-22T16:08:49+08:00 | 0.6915903008677318 |
| 2026-06-22T16:12:41+08:00 | 0.6919146865623226 |
| 2026-06-22T16:16:13+08:00 | 0.7892303949395831 |
| 2026-06-22T17:04:01+08:00 | 0.8028545941123997 |
| 2026-06-22T17:05:06+08:00 | 0.8029356905360474 |
| 2026-06-22T17:06:39+08:00 | 0.7973400373043549 |
| 2026-06-22T17:07:59+08:00 | 0.9773740978022869 |
| 2026-06-22T17:10:09+08:00 | 1.22877301111021 |
| 2026-06-22T17:11:34+08:00 | 1.2735382369637498 |
| 2026-06-22T18:01:33+08:00 | 1.2848917362744303 |
| 2026-06-22T18:11:45+08:00 | 1.2913794501662477 |
| 2026-06-22T18:12:38+08:00 | 1.3194388127483578 |
| 2026-06-22T18:13:02+08:00 | 1.3232503446598005 |
| 2026-06-22T18:14:00+08:00 | 1.3475792717541157 |
| 2026-06-22T18:14:08+08:00 | 1.3918579190657692 |
| 2026-06-22T18:14:34+08:00 | 1.3932365582677804 |
| 2026-06-22T18:15:01+08:00 | 2.0420079474495174 |
| 2026-06-22T20:25:26+08:00 | 2.047522504257562 |
| 2026-06-22T20:27:21+08:00 | 2.0506041683561755 |
| 2026-06-22T20:30:00+08:00 | 2.052793771794664 |
| 2026-06-22T20:31:46+08:00 | 2.1617873651771955 |
| 2026-06-22T20:35:26+08:00 | 2.348309139566945 |
| 2026-06-22T21:22:48+08:00 | 2.3550401427297056 |
| 2026-06-22T22:06:28+08:00 | 2.3539047927986374 |
| 2026-06-22T22:08:47+08:00 | 2.3568242640499553 |
| 2026-06-22T22:10:03+08:00 | 2.492336387965291 |
| 2026-06-22T22:12:22+08:00 | 3.3762874057254075 |
| 2026-06-23T08:37:42+08:00 | 4.0088395101776015 |
| 2026-06-23T08:39:39+08:00 | 4.010461438650555 |
| 2026-06-23T08:43:07+08:00 | 4.024977698483497 |
| 2026-06-23T08:43:10+08:00 | 4.063417403292515 |
| 2026-06-23T09:18:11+08:00 | 4.1661665720541725 |
| 2026-06-23T09:18:23+08:00 | 4.169004946881842 |
| 2026-06-23T09:18:29+08:00 | 4.176384721433784 |
| 2026-06-23T09:18:37+08:00 | 4.223420647149461 |
| 2026-06-23T09:18:43+08:00 | 4.229016300381153 |
| 2026-06-23T09:18:51+08:00 | 4.293893439299327 |
| 2026-06-23T10:09:12+08:00 | 4.350660935852729 |
| 2026-06-23T10:10:01+08:00 | 4.352688346443922 |
| 2026-06-23T10:11:17+08:00 | 4.352931635714865 |
| 2026-06-23T10:12:19+08:00 | 4.353499310680399 |
| 2026-06-23T10:12:34+08:00 | 4.348309139566945 |
| 2026-06-23T10:12:58+08:00 | 4.331197794177276 |
| 2026-06-23T10:14:53+08:00 | 4.3393074365420485 |
| 2026-06-23T11:02:38+08:00 | 4.343929932689968 |
| 2026-06-23T11:03:26+08:00 | 4.356013299813478 |
| 2026-06-23T11:04:48+08:00 | 4.362744302976239 |
| 2026-06-23T11:10:57+08:00 | 4.381396480415214 |
| 2026-06-23T11:11:24+08:00 | 4.381477576838861 |
| 2026-06-23T11:12:06+08:00 | 4.387478712188792 |
| 2026-06-23T11:13:18+08:00 | 4.776741545697835 |
| 2026-06-23T12:13:06+08:00 | 4.809828886546104 |
| 2026-06-23T12:14:52+08:00 | 4.809909982969751 |
| 2026-06-23T12:15:14+08:00 | 4.820371421620306 |
| 2026-06-23T12:15:55+08:00 | 4.8200470359257155 |
| 2026-06-23T12:16:23+08:00 | 4.825642689157408 |
| 2026-06-23T12:17:03+08:00 | 4.906739112805125 |
| 2026-06-23T13:40:15+08:00 | 4.891736274430298 |
| 2026-06-23T13:41:05+08:00 | 4.891898467277593 |
| 2026-06-23T13:41:31+08:00 | 4.885816235504015 |
| 2026-06-23T13:43:31+08:00 | 4.886546103316844 |
| 2026-06-23T13:44:00+08:00 | 4.935203957505474 |
| 2026-06-23T14:01:59+08:00 | 4.9210931797907715 |
| 2026-06-23T14:03:05+08:00 | 4.9214175654853625 |
| 2026-06-23T14:04:38+08:00 | 4.7990430622009566 |
| 2026-06-23T14:05:47+08:00 | 4.885329656962128 |
| 2026-06-23T14:07:38+08:00 | 4.901548941691671 |
| 2026-06-23T14:10:35+08:00 | 4.916470683642851 |
| 2026-06-23T15:13:58+08:00 | 4.926769929446111 |
| 2026-06-23T15:15:32+08:00 | 4.929365015002839 |
| 2026-06-23T15:15:56+08:00 | 4.9305003649339065 |
| 2026-06-23T15:16:33+08:00 | 4.93747465736761 |
| 2026-06-23T15:18:09+08:00 | 4.978022869191468 |
| 2026-06-23T15:18:44+08:00 | 4.984429486659638 |
| 2026-06-23T16:35:15+08:00 | 4.984916065201524 |
| 2026-06-23T16:36:27+08:00 | 4.98897088638391 |
| 2026-06-23T16:39:32+08:00 | 4.990592814856865 |
| 2026-06-23T16:40:32+08:00 | 4.99253912902441 |
| 2026-06-23T16:41:23+08:00 | 5.008758413753953 |
| 2026-06-23T17:01:45+08:00 | 5.012813234936339 |
| 2026-06-23T17:02:12+08:00 | 5.015489416916714 |
| 2026-06-23T17:07:19+08:00 | 5.0162192847295435 |
| 2026-06-23T17:08:04+08:00 | 5.014516259832941 |
| 2026-06-23T17:08:39+08:00 | 5.01776011677885 |
| 2026-06-23T17:09:32+08:00 | 5.025869759143622 |
| 2026-06-23T18:09:17+08:00 | 5.033898305084746 |
| 2026-06-23T18:10:48+08:00 | 5.035844619252291 |
| 2026-06-23T18:12:12+08:00 | 5.036493390641473 |
| 2026-06-23T18:13:16+08:00 | 5.360879085232341 |
| 2026-06-23T18:14:46+08:00 | 5.361690049468819 |
| 2026-06-23T18:16:42+08:00 | 5.410347903657449 |
| 2026-06-23T18:17:57+08:00 | 5.4066985645933014 |
| 2026-06-23T20:16:03+08:00 | 5.407752818100722 |
| 2026-06-23T20:18:21+08:00 | 5.41099667504663 |
| 2026-06-23T20:18:57+08:00 | 5.415375881923607 |
| 2026-06-23T20:20:18+08:00 | 5.431595166653151 |
| 2026-06-23T20:20:49+08:00 | 5.432162841618685 |
| 2026-06-23T20:22:11+08:00 | 5.497039980536858 |
| 2026-06-23T21:06:54+08:00 | 5.498175330467927 |
| 2026-06-23T22:04:06+08:00 | 5.49874300543346 |
| 2026-06-23T22:05:07+08:00 | 5.551374584380829 |
| 2026-06-23T22:06:32+08:00 | 5.554699537750385 |
| 2026-06-23T22:07:50+08:00 | 5.627686319033331 |
| 2026-06-24T08:32:51+08:00 | 5.895304517070797 |
| 2026-06-24T08:34:08+08:00 | 5.897088638391047 |
| 2026-06-24T08:35:24+08:00 | 5.899845916795069 |
| 2026-06-24T08:35:46+08:00 | 5.966750466304436 |
| 2026-06-24T08:39:34+08:00 | 5.966750466304436 |
| 2026-06-24T09:15:42+08:00 | 6.0047846889952154 |
| 2026-06-24T09:17:05+08:00 | 5.987024572216365 |
| 2026-06-24T09:18:17+08:00 | 5.982807558186684 |
| 2026-06-24T09:19:16+08:00 | 6.033898305084746 |
| 2026-06-24T09:20:38+08:00 | 6.301516503122213 |
| 2026-06-24T09:30:08+08:00 | 6.325683237369232 |
| 2026-06-24T10:08:24+08:00 | 6.331765469142811 |
| 2026-06-24T10:08:57+08:00 | 6.339550725812992 |
| 2026-06-24T10:09:36+08:00 | 6.3427945827589 |
| 2026-06-24T10:10:39+08:00 | 6.351715189360149 |
| 2026-06-24T10:11:21+08:00 | 6.4571405401021815 |
| 2026-06-24T11:22:43+08:00 | 6.465087989619658 |
| 2026-06-24T11:23:12+08:00 | 6.4641959289595325 |
| 2026-06-24T11:24:04+08:00 | 6.4877138918173705 |
| 2026-06-24T11:24:54+08:00 | 6.489498013137621 |
| 2026-06-24T11:25:15+08:00 | 6.543183845592409 |
| 2026-06-24T11:26:02+08:00 | 6.891898467277593 |
| 2026-06-24T12:10:52+08:00 | 6.908928716243613 |
| 2026-06-24T12:12:01+08:00 | 6.920038926283351 |
| 2026-06-24T12:12:26+08:00 | 6.92044440840159 |
| 2026-06-24T12:12:47+08:00 | 6.940556321466223 |
| 2026-06-24T12:13:51+08:00 | 6.970480901792231 |
| 2026-06-24T12:15:07+08:00 | 7.002919471251317 |
| 2026-06-24T13:47:34+08:00 | 7.003568242640499 |
| 2026-06-24T13:48:08+08:00 | 7.022544805774065 |
| 2026-06-24T13:48:46+08:00 | 7.687535479685346 |
| 2026-06-24T13:49:15+08:00 | 7.7205417241099665 |
| 2026-06-24T13:49:53+08:00 | 7.7274349201200225 |
| 2026-06-24T14:03:37+08:00 | 7.790771226988889 |
| 2026-06-24T14:04:42+08:00 | 7.805287486821832 |
| 2026-06-24T14:05:24+08:00 | 7.82912983537426 |
| 2026-06-24T14:06:09+08:00 | 7.829616413916146 |
| 2026-06-24T14:07:04+08:00 | 8.437839591274026 |
| 2026-06-24T14:08:47+08:00 | 8.516422025788662 |
| 2026-06-24T15:11:48+08:00 | 8.601735463466062 |
| 2026-06-24T15:12:41+08:00 | 8.67285702700511 |
| 2026-06-24T15:13:03+08:00 | 8.682426404995539 |
| 2026-06-24T15:13:25+08:00 | 8.75557537912578 |
| 2026-06-24T15:14:33+08:00 | 8.767091071283756 |
| 2026-06-24T15:14:57+08:00 | 9.2131214013462 |
| 2026-06-24T16:19:03+08:00 | 9.224880382775119 |
| 2026-06-24T16:19:59+08:00 | 9.226583407671722 |
| 2026-06-24T16:20:23+08:00 | 9.250587949071447 |
| 2026-06-24T16:21:37+08:00 | 9.286027086205499 |
| 2026-06-24T16:23:25+08:00 | 10.85118806260644 |
| 2026-06-24T16:23:49+08:00 | 10.854107533857757 |
| 2026-06-24T17:00:37+08:00 | 12.800421701402968 |
| 2026-06-24T17:01:09+08:00 | 13.885816235504015 |
| 2026-06-24T17:01:53+08:00 | 13.892141756548536 |
| 2026-06-24T17:03:59+08:00 | 23.993350093260887 |
| 2026-06-24T17:04:20+08:00 | 24.00008109642365 |
| 2026-06-24T17:05:09+08:00 | 24.000162192847295 |
| 2026-06-24T17:05:40+08:00 | 71.77406536371745 |
| 2026-06-24T18:07:30+08:00 | 81.00162192847296 |
| 2026-06-24T18:15:59+08:00 | 138.41788987105667 |
| 2026-06-24T18:16:38+08:00 | 143.51617873651773 |
| 2026-06-24T18:18:01+08:00 | 144.15019057659558 |
| 2026-06-24T18:18:24+08:00 | 149.86327142972996 |
| 2026-06-24T18:18:44+08:00 | 149.91087503041115 |
| 2026-06-24T18:19:49+08:00 | 150.06284972832697 |
| 2026-06-24T18:20:20+08:00 | 151.19819965939502 |
| 2026-06-24T18:20:52+08:00 | 193.79004135917606 |
| 2026-06-24T20:13:44+08:00 | 195.31246452031465 |
| 2026-06-24T20:14:46+08:00 | 198.15692157975835 |
| 2026-06-24T20:15:43+08:00 | 200.14281080204364 |
| 2026-06-24T20:16:35+08:00 | 201.47627929608305 |
| 2026-06-24T20:17:09+08:00 | 210.82604817127566 |
| 2026-06-24T20:17:55+08:00 | 279.53904792798636 |
| 2026-06-24T21:41:38+08:00 | 281.66847782012815 |
| 2026-06-24T22:04:20+08:00 | 285.99464763603925 |
| 2026-06-24T22:05:16+08:00 | 287.35585110696616 |
| 2026-06-24T22:06:05+08:00 | 305.064228367529 |
| 2026-06-24T22:06:59+08:00 | 409.45154488687047 |
| 2026-06-25T08:41:26+08:00 | 422.06414727110536 |
| 2026-06-25T08:41:57+08:00 | 463.1913875598086 |
| 2026-06-25T08:43:42+08:00 | 465.1318627848512 |
| 2026-06-25T08:44:01+08:00 | 467.9891330792312 |
| 2026-06-25T08:44:47+08:00 | 814.1978752737004 |
| 2026-06-25T08:47:49+08:00 | 814.1978752737004 |
| 2026-06-25T09:04:11+08:00 | 825.6324710080286 |
| 2026-06-25T09:05:28+08:00 | 838.2032276376611 |
| 2026-06-25T09:06:09+08:00 | 838.6214418944124 |
| 2026-06-25T09:06:30+08:00 | 843.8471332414241 |
| 2026-06-25T09:07:06+08:00 | 928.5928959532885 |
| 2026-06-25T09:07:41+08:00 | 942.3136809666694 |
| 2026-06-25T09:10:52+08:00 | 986.4738464033736 |
| 2026-06-25T10:08:12+08:00 | 1006.7408969264455 |
| 2026-06-25T10:09:21+08:00 | 1171.1720055145568 |
| 2026-06-25T11:06:15+08:00 | 1180.65 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 2134.81x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.493, 乙组 α=0.593) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
鲟龙科技中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 鲟龙科技（06715）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
