孖展动态 孖展倍数120.89x 孖展资金152.8亿 捷利预测倍数161.99x
排名 券商 孖展资金
1 富途证券富途 85.9亿
2 辉立证券辉立 35.0亿
3 老虎国际老虎 14.3亿
4 华泰国际华泰 6.4亿
5 致富证券致富 2.7亿
6 复星国际复星 2.7亿
7 盈立证券盈立 1.7亿
8 华盛证券华盛 1.3亿
9 熊猫证券熊猫 1.3亿
孖展倍数
时间倍数
2026-06-30T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-30T11:21:45+08:000.00031643066213116053
2026-06-30T11:21:53+08:000.0013448303140574322
2026-06-30T11:22:06+08:000.009255596867336445
2026-06-30T12:14:38+08:000.009492919863934815
2026-06-30T12:19:23+08:000.02033067004192706
2026-06-30T12:21:18+08:000.020647100704058223
2026-06-30T12:23:18+08:000.03275057353057511
2026-06-30T12:26:45+08:000.0881259394035282
2026-06-30T14:02:26+08:000.08852147773119215
2026-06-30T14:02:29+08:000.08915433905545447
2026-06-30T14:06:39+08:000.08820504706906099
2026-06-30T14:06:42+08:000.08860058539672494
2026-06-30T14:13:50+08:000.09477098330828257
2026-06-30T14:13:53+08:000.09975476623684836
2026-06-30T14:18:44+08:000.10766553279012736
2026-06-30T14:24:37+08:000.10924768610078317
2026-06-30T14:31:34+08:000.11154180840123408
2026-06-30T15:03:27+08:000.11209556205996361
2026-06-30T15:05:36+08:000.11644648366426706
2026-06-30T15:16:45+08:000.11684202199193101
2026-06-30T16:29:20+08:000.11897792896131636
2026-06-30T16:33:11+08:000.11905703662684915
2026-06-30T17:07:07+08:000.11992722094770983
2026-06-30T17:11:03+08:000.12040186694090657
2026-06-30T17:14:22+08:000.12071829760303773
2026-06-30T18:07:41+08:000.1210347282651689
2026-06-30T18:12:56+08:000.12119294359623448
2026-06-30T18:16:46+08:000.11106716240803734
2026-06-30T18:21:29+08:000.1122537773910292
2026-06-30T18:26:31+08:001.3779764259156713
2026-06-30T20:09:13+08:001.378055533581204
2026-06-30T20:12:47+08:001.3783719642433352
2026-06-30T20:17:36+08:001.3785301795744007
2026-06-30T22:06:13+08:001.3786883949054662
2026-07-01T08:42:55+08:001.3798750098884582
2026-07-01T08:42:57+08:001.4149197057194842
2026-07-01T08:46:13+08:001.4153152440471481
2026-07-01T09:02:54+08:001.4153152440471481
2026-07-01T09:05:25+08:001.4221185032829682
2026-07-01T09:07:47+08:001.422514041610632
2026-07-01T09:10:31+08:001.4227513646072305
2026-07-01T09:12:22+08:001.422988687603829
2026-07-01T09:18:23+08:001.4238588719246894
2026-07-01T09:25:20+08:001.4243335179178862
2026-07-01T10:18:28+08:001.4246499485800175
2026-07-01T10:22:27+08:001.424808163911083
2026-07-01T10:28:03+08:001.4248872715766159
2026-07-01T11:09:17+08:001.425124594573214
2026-07-01T12:14:06+08:001.4254410252353453
2026-07-01T12:16:33+08:001.4264694248872716
2026-07-01T12:18:20+08:001.4267858555494026
2026-07-01T12:19:31+08:001.4268649632149355
2026-07-01T14:11:30+08:001.427023178546001
2026-07-01T14:15:04+08:001.4277351475357962
2026-07-01T14:15:07+08:001.4306621311605094
2026-07-01T14:18:42+08:001.4860374970334624
2026-07-01T14:18:45+08:001.4939482635867416
2026-07-01T14:23:35+08:001.4940273712522742
2026-07-01T14:26:03+08:001.4942646942488726
2026-07-01T14:32:09+08:001.4968752472114548
2026-07-01T15:09:56+08:001.4969543548769875
2026-07-01T15:13:14+08:001.4978245391978482
2026-07-01T15:15:36+08:001.4980618621944466
2026-07-01T16:14:44+08:001.4981409698599795
2026-07-01T17:03:41+08:001.498299185191045
2026-07-01T17:06:10+08:001.4987738311842418
2026-07-01T17:08:09+08:001.4986156158531763
2026-07-01T18:02:55+08:001.4989320465153073
2026-07-01T18:04:27+08:001.4990111541808402
2026-07-01T18:10:14+08:001.5069219207341191
2026-07-01T18:21:00+08:001.5081876433826438
2026-07-01T20:58:47+08:001.508504074044775
2026-07-01T21:00:21+08:001.5157819792737917
2026-07-01T21:02:14+08:001.5236927458270706
2026-07-01T22:10:32+08:001.5238509611581361
2026-07-02T08:44:18+08:001.5251957914721936
2026-07-02T08:44:20+08:001.525828652796456
2026-07-02T08:47:53+08:001.5319199430424808
2026-07-02T08:47:55+08:001.531840835376948
2026-07-02T08:52:00+08:001.539751601930227
2026-07-02T08:58:43+08:001.539751601930227
2026-07-02T09:13:21+08:001.549244521794162
2026-07-02T09:20:55+08:001.5481370144767028
2026-07-02T09:26:41+08:001.5494027371252275
2026-07-02T09:29:59+08:001.5508266751048176
2026-07-02T09:33:03+08:001.5033620757851436
2026-07-02T09:52:44+08:001.5141998259631357
2026-07-02T10:14:40+08:001.5139625029665376
2026-07-02T10:17:17+08:001.5137251799699392
2026-07-02T10:19:05+08:001.5145953642907999
2026-07-02T10:21:55+08:001.5142789336286686
2026-07-02T10:25:35+08:001.5854758326081797
2026-07-02T11:13:52+08:001.5929910608337947
2026-07-02T11:15:10+08:001.6167233604936317
2026-07-02T11:16:52+08:001.634364369907444
2026-07-02T11:18:46+08:001.6395854758326083
2026-07-02T12:11:54+08:001.6398227988292065
2026-07-02T12:16:41+08:001.6406138754845345
2026-07-02T12:19:04+08:001.6414049521398624
2026-07-02T12:21:55+08:001.6493157186931413
2026-07-02T14:07:51+08:001.6468633810616249
2026-07-02T14:07:54+08:001.6365793845423622
2026-07-02T14:12:28+08:001.6372122458666245
2026-07-02T14:12:30+08:001.6473380270548217
2026-07-02T14:17:27+08:001.6474962423858872
2026-07-02T14:17:41+08:001.6565145162566253
2026-07-02T14:25:32+08:001.7593544814492523
2026-07-02T14:25:36+08:001.7648129103710148
2026-07-02T14:37:43+08:002.2396962265643543
2026-07-02T15:01:28+08:002.245629301479313
2026-07-02T15:03:22+08:002.2411201645439442
2026-07-02T15:06:26+08:002.2440471481686575
2026-07-02T15:09:45+08:002.2441262558341903
2026-07-02T15:11:43+08:002.2696780318012815
2026-07-02T15:13:16+08:002.2617672652480025
2026-07-02T16:05:07+08:002.2620045882446007
2026-07-02T16:07:20+08:002.2624001265722646
2026-07-02T16:10:45+08:002.283126334941856
2026-07-02T16:14:18+08:002.2839965192627165
2026-07-02T17:04:17+08:002.2841547345937823
2026-07-02T17:06:30+08:002.2848667035835772
2026-07-02T17:08:32+08:002.2877145795427576
2026-07-02T17:10:16+08:002.287951902539356
2026-07-02T17:11:42+08:002.2832845502729215
2026-07-02T17:13:54+08:002.3307491495925956
2026-07-02T18:13:35+08:001.8765129341033147
2026-07-02T18:18:00+08:001.8766711494343802
2026-07-02T18:21:56+08:001.8776204414207738
2026-07-02T18:22:05+08:001.8777786567518393
2026-07-02T18:26:41+08:002.58974764654695
2026-07-02T20:42:13+08:002.589905861878016
2026-07-02T20:43:56+08:002.5912506921920735
2026-07-02T20:50:13+08:002.673839095008306
2026-07-02T20:52:12+08:002.7054821612214224
2026-07-02T21:49:37+08:002.7055612688869553
2026-07-02T22:08:16+08:002.7054821612214224
2026-07-02T22:10:21+08:002.7031880389209713
2026-07-02T22:12:20+08:002.6952772723676923
2026-07-03T08:38:31+08:002.7103077288189223
2026-07-03T08:38:33+08:002.6910054584289216
2026-07-03T08:44:05+08:002.6910845660944545
2026-07-03T08:45:58+08:002.6910845660944545
2026-07-03T08:48:23+08:002.6752630329878966
2026-07-03T09:02:34+08:002.688632228462938
2026-07-03T09:06:46+08:002.6914009967565855
2026-07-03T09:09:46+08:002.6911636737599873
2026-07-03T09:12:41+08:002.7076180681908077
2026-07-03T09:20:22+08:002.719167787358595
2026-07-03T10:16:18+08:002.718060280041136
2026-07-03T10:17:47+08:002.721145478996915
2026-07-03T10:20:24+08:002.729056245550194
2026-07-03T10:27:20+08:002.729293568546792
2026-07-03T10:29:53+08:002.7212245866624474
2026-07-03T11:12:36+08:002.7220156633177757
2026-07-03T11:14:18+08:002.765841310022941
2026-07-03T11:16:26+08:002.813305909342615
2026-07-03T11:18:10+08:002.81117000237323
2026-07-03T11:19:08+08:002.8128312633494184
2026-07-03T12:28:50+08:002.8144134166600745
2026-07-03T12:29:45+08:002.8148089549877384
2026-07-03T12:30:09+08:002.814096985997943
2026-07-03T12:33:07+08:002.813701447670279
2026-07-03T12:34:44+08:002.812673048018353
2026-07-03T13:40:42+08:002.812752155683886
2026-07-03T13:41:49+08:002.8140178783324106
2026-07-03T13:43:42+08:002.8456609445455263
2026-07-03T13:46:03+08:002.8302349497666324
2026-07-03T14:01:14+08:002.8338739023811406
2026-07-03T14:04:41+08:002.8377501779922474
2026-07-03T14:07:48+08:002.838620362313108
2026-07-03T14:10:55+08:002.854441895419666
2026-07-03T14:12:58+08:002.854521003085199
2026-07-03T15:20:07+08:002.8660707222529864
2026-07-03T15:21:08+08:002.8686812752155686
2026-07-03T15:21:57+08:002.860770508662289
2026-07-03T15:25:04+08:002.861245154655486
2026-07-03T16:04:48+08:002.8621153389763467
2026-07-03T16:05:48+08:002.8621944466418796
2026-07-03T16:06:48+08:002.8780159797484375
2026-07-03T16:07:50+08:002.8799145637212247
2026-07-03T16:09:04+08:002.8808638557076183
2026-07-03T17:09:34+08:002.8836326240012657
2026-07-03T17:12:02+08:002.8837117316667986
2026-07-03T17:12:37+08:002.885056561980856
2026-07-03T17:13:28+08:002.8870342536191758
2026-07-03T17:15:39+08:002.9028557867257336
2026-07-03T18:34:42+08:002.908788861640693
2026-07-03T18:36:51+08:002.9131397832449966
2026-07-03T18:39:31+08:002.9143263982279883
2026-07-03T18:40:56+08:002.9157503362075787
2026-07-03T18:41:47+08:002.915908551538644
2026-07-03T18:51:19+08:002.918993750494423
2026-07-03T21:05:44+08:002.919784827149751
2026-07-03T21:06:35+08:002.9258761173957755
2026-07-03T21:08:44+08:002.9280911320306937
2026-07-03T21:10:28+08:002.930385254331145
2026-07-03T21:12:56+08:002.930701684993276
2026-07-04T09:34:33+08:002.930701684993276
2026-07-04T09:36:26+08:002.931334546317538
2026-07-04T09:37:17+08:002.957440075943359
2026-07-04T09:38:44+08:002.9582311525986866
2026-07-04T09:39:51+08:002.961949212878728
2026-07-04T09:41:47+08:002.974685547029507
2026-07-04T09:43:04+08:003.077525512222134
2026-07-04T10:27:16+08:003.0776837275532
2026-07-04T10:30:07+08:003.0777628352187327
2026-07-04T10:30:25+08:003.0782374812119295
2026-07-04T12:02:39+08:003.0783165888774624
2026-07-04T12:10:44+08:003.0786330195395935
2026-07-04T12:12:18+08:003.0933470453286924
2026-07-04T15:36:58+08:003.092239538011233
2026-07-04T15:39:54+08:003.083616802468159
2026-07-04T15:40:06+08:003.0845660944545528
2026-07-04T15:42:26+08:003.1082983941143896
2026-07-04T15:42:54+08:003.1003876275611106
2026-07-04T18:35:39+08:003.1006249505577093
2026-07-04T18:36:23+08:003.101020488885373
2026-07-04T18:38:34+08:003.1014951348785695
2026-07-04T18:40:52+08:003.1331382010916857
2026-07-04T20:04:21+08:003.1332964164227515
2026-07-04T20:06:52+08:003.1338501700814807
2026-07-04T20:09:07+08:003.157582469741318
2026-07-05T09:35:02+08:003.1633573293252115
2026-07-05T09:36:01+08:003.163911082983941
2026-07-05T09:36:06+08:003.1743532948342694
2026-07-05T09:41:48+08:003.18004904675263
2026-07-05T09:44:58+08:003.183529784036073
2026-07-05T09:48:08+08:003.159797484376236
2026-07-05T09:53:24+08:003.1600348073728344
2026-07-05T09:53:58+08:003.1603512380349654
2026-07-05T12:18:53+08:003.1761727711415237
2026-07-05T12:23:32+08:003.176330986472589
2026-07-05T12:24:11+08:003.176489201803655
2026-07-05T12:27:22+08:003.1775967091211137
2026-07-05T12:31:38+08:003.1778340321177123
2026-07-05T12:35:10+08:003.1782295704453762
2026-07-05T12:35:15+08:003.1784668934419744
2026-07-05T12:38:42+08:003.1787833241041055
2026-07-05T12:39:20+08:003.178941539435171
2026-07-05T12:41:45+08:003.17917886243177
2026-07-05T14:50:10+08:003.1813147694011548
2026-07-05T14:52:10+08:003.197136302507713
2026-07-05T17:16:44+08:003.2025947314294756
2026-07-05T17:19:26+08:003.2026738390950085
2026-07-05T17:23:14+08:003.20528439205759
2026-07-05T17:23:41+08:003.205521715054189
2026-07-05T17:24:18+08:003.205759038050787
2026-07-05T17:26:49+08:003.197848271497508
2026-07-05T17:27:26+08:003.213669804604066
2026-07-05T17:27:59+08:003.2294913377106242
2026-07-05T17:30:34+08:003.230282414365952
2026-07-05T17:48:45+08:003.230361522031485
2026-07-05T17:49:21+08:003.2322601060042717
2026-07-05T17:50:05+08:003.2323392136698046
2026-07-05T20:07:27+08:003.2508504074044775
2026-07-05T20:08:05+08:003.2511668380666086
2026-07-05T20:09:57+08:003.252116130053002
2026-07-05T20:10:01+08:003.2515623763942725
2026-07-05T20:13:44+08:003.252274345384068
2026-07-05T20:14:21+08:003.2523534530496003
2026-07-05T20:16:19+08:003.252986314373863
2026-07-05T20:17:38+08:003.253223637370461
2026-07-05T20:21:43+08:003.253302745035994
2026-07-05T21:10:59+08:003.28494581124911
2026-07-05T21:11:44+08:003.300767344355668
2026-07-05T21:12:26+08:003.308678110908947
2026-07-05T21:13:07+08:003.292856577802389
2026-07-05T21:14:24+08:003.2923819318091923
2026-07-05T21:16:44+08:003.293014793133455
2026-07-05T21:17:45+08:003.2938058697887826
2026-07-06T08:39:34+08:003.295546238430504
2026-07-06T08:40:03+08:003.31018115655407
2026-07-06T08:40:27+08:003.322680167708251
2026-07-06T08:42:20+08:003.3234712443635788
2026-07-06T08:42:53+08:003.3364449015109563
2026-07-06T08:43:19+08:003.3381852701526777
2026-07-06T08:44:08+08:003.337710624159481
2026-07-06T08:46:27+08:003.416818289692271
2026-07-06T08:49:31+08:003.416818289692271
2026-07-06T09:01:48+08:003.4200617039791155
2026-07-06T09:02:47+08:003.4219602879519027
2026-07-06T09:05:26+08:003.4238588719246894
2026-07-06T09:06:07+08:003.4241753025868205
2026-07-06T09:06:41+08:003.4400759433589116
2026-07-06T09:07:37+08:003.732774305830235
2026-07-06T09:11:08+08:003.7858555494027373
2026-07-06T10:26:13+08:003.7894153943517126
2026-07-06T10:26:38+08:003.790443794003639
2026-07-06T10:27:49+08:003.788228779368721
2026-07-06T10:28:14+08:003.7959813305909345
2026-07-06T10:29:08+08:004.001661260976189
2026-07-06T11:00:46+08:004.022308361680246
2026-07-06T11:02:06+08:004.024760699311764
2026-07-06T11:10:24+08:004.057194842180207
2026-07-06T11:10:44+08:004.05727394984574
2026-07-06T11:10:56+08:004.1063207024760695
2026-07-06T11:11:18+08:003.8373546396645835
2026-07-06T12:15:20+08:003.8392532236373706
2026-07-06T12:15:44+08:003.8399651926271656
2026-07-06T12:15:59+08:003.835535163357329
2026-07-06T12:16:34+08:004.009572027529468
2026-07-06T12:22:45+08:004.013922949133771
2026-07-06T12:23:00+08:004.015188671782296
2026-07-06T13:39:52+08:004.017720117079345
2026-07-06T13:40:09+08:004.028716082588403
2026-07-06T13:40:43+08:004.030140020567993
2026-07-06T13:41:14+08:004.028004113598608
2026-07-06T13:41:37+08:004.043825646705166
2026-07-06T14:06:20+08:004.0481765683094695
2026-07-06T14:06:54+08:004.093663475990824
2026-07-06T14:07:09+08:004.093505260659758
2026-07-06T14:07:20+08:004.094217229649553
2026-07-06T14:07:50+08:004.101732457875168
2026-07-06T14:08:05+08:004.125464757535005
2026-07-06T14:09:20+08:004.235503520291116
2026-07-06T15:16:07+08:004.242623210189067
2026-07-06T15:16:36+08:004.243018748516731
2026-07-06T15:16:57+08:004.25971046594415
2026-07-06T15:17:44+08:004.275531999050708
2026-07-06T15:18:01+08:004.308836326240012
2026-07-06T15:18:17+08:004.309073649236611
2026-07-06T16:16:28+08:004.3202278300767345
2026-07-06T16:17:41+08:004.369353690372597
2026-07-06T16:18:38+08:004.376710703267147
2026-07-06T16:18:58+08:004.384621469820425
2026-07-06T16:21:30+08:004.38928882208686
2026-07-06T17:31:35+08:004.66458349814097
2026-07-06T17:31:51+08:005.479708883790839
2026-07-06T17:32:12+08:006.620045882446009
2026-07-06T17:32:30+08:006.622735543074124
2026-07-06T17:32:41+08:006.58943121588482
2026-07-06T17:33:00+08:0012.878490625741634
2026-07-06T17:33:18+08:0012.884502808322127
2026-07-06T17:33:40+08:0013.121825804920498
2026-07-06T17:48:50+08:0019.054900719879758
2026-07-06T18:01:14+08:0019.32782216596788
2026-07-06T18:01:24+08:0019.391582944387313
2026-07-06T18:03:25+08:0020.92769559370303
2026-07-06T18:03:45+08:0020.991614587453522
2026-07-06T18:04:05+08:0021.63341507792105
2026-07-06T18:04:41+08:0021.80207262083696
2026-07-06T18:05:28+08:0026.065975793054346
2026-07-06T20:02:20+08:0026.145083458587138
2026-07-06T20:02:30+08:0026.275848429712838
2026-07-06T20:02:39+08:0026.50272921446088
2026-07-06T20:02:53+08:0026.505418875088996
2026-07-06T20:04:34+08:0029.321651768056324
2026-07-06T20:04:48+08:0029.67107032671466
2026-07-06T20:05:00+08:0029.672098726366585
2026-07-06T20:05:17+08:0030.739814888062654
2026-07-06T20:05:43+08:0030.900007910766554
2026-07-06T20:05:53+08:0032.933074914959256
2026-07-06T21:29:11+08:0033.19072858159956
2026-07-06T21:29:22+08:0033.189225535954435
2026-07-06T21:29:38+08:0033.56451230124199
2026-07-06T21:30:02+08:0033.615378530179576
2026-07-06T21:30:13+08:0035.84621469820426
2026-07-06T22:05:18+08:0035.84336682224507
2026-07-06T22:05:33+08:0037.994778894074834
2026-07-06T22:05:57+08:0038.06067557946365
2026-07-06T22:06:09+08:0041.62052052843921
2026-07-07T08:37:57+08:0042.63752867652875
2026-07-07T08:38:07+08:0044.681749861561585
2026-07-07T08:38:37+08:0044.76101574242544
2026-07-07T08:38:46+08:0045.05592911953168
2026-07-07T08:39:04+08:0066.79471560794241
2026-07-07T08:39:25+08:0066.79471560794241
2026-07-07T09:01:49+08:0067.66434617514437
2026-07-07T09:02:50+08:0070.99818052369275
2026-07-07T09:03:39+08:0071.52060754687129
2026-07-07T09:03:54+08:0073.41840044300292
2026-07-07T09:04:18+08:0073.57701131239617
2026-07-07T09:05:20+08:0079.23320939799066
2026-07-07T09:09:51+08:0079.668301558421
2026-07-07T10:23:47+08:0079.960208844237
2026-07-07T10:24:12+08:0081.77675816786646
2026-07-07T10:25:16+08:0099.86077050866228
2026-07-07T11:10:55+08:0099.95838936792975
2026-07-07T12:06:16+08:00120.89
捷利预测倍数
时间倍数
券商孖展资金走势
时间券商孖展资金
预测模型 一手期望中签手数— 期望中签1手所需手数—
倍数推导
近期首日表现
+4.6%
→
参与人数
12,901
→
人均手数
46.4
→
认购倍数
17x
17x = 12,901 × 46.4 ÷ 35,213 A+H二次上市 · 参与×0.44 H股折价 39.3% 孖展加权 100% → 162.0x
1x8160.0x
分配手法系数 α
分配手法系数
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.54
分配手法系数 α
分配手法系数
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.64
此模型不适用分配手法调节

实际 vs 预测 对比

以实际认购倍数 227.58x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.542, 乙组 α=0.642) 为基准,对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数

申购手数 认购金额(HKD) 实际期望中签 预测期望中签 偏差

标志滨化股份中签预测矩阵

行为申购档位,列为不同认购倍数,数值为期望中签手数,绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手;非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。

发售机制说明

机制B

《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%,不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%(因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者,基石投资者除外)。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益,自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。

分配手法系数 α

α 为发行人分配偏好系数,描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——无论申购多少手,每位中签者获配股数相同。对散户(小单申购)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——获配股数与申购手数成正比。对大额申购更有利。
  • 历史实际 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3–0.9,乙组 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差异较大,反映发行人各自的分配策略。
中签率定义

本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致:中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径,与其他网站可能使用的不同定义(如「申购人数中签比例」)有本质区别。

期望中签手数

期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数

例:某档位获配总股数 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

关于本页

本页展示 滨化股份(06745)的中签预测:基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导,公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数;其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准,再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准;随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权;临近截止(进度约九成后)默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配,估计各申购档位的期望中签手数,并结合分配手法系数 α(人均分配至比例分配)给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α,覆盖 cibo 的默认预测,查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源:港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告;孖展数据(孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细)来自捷利交易宝(TradeGo),倍数仅覆盖已上报券商,捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新;中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中签率预测、中签画像与入通分析