丹诺医药 06872
新股中签预测
69.6002.11%( -1.500 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
2869.9亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
809.0亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
459.5亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
169.6亿 |
| 5 |  华盛 |
75.2亿 |
| 6 |  致富 |
60.0亿 |
| 7 |  招银 |
46.0亿 |
| 8 |  复星 |
45.7亿 |
| 9 |  盈立 |
36.7亿 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2026-05-14T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-05-14T10:03:03+08:00 | 0.014037326527356835 |
| 2026-05-14T10:04:02+08:00 | 0.052161429255064604 |
| 2026-05-14T10:05:42+08:00 | 0.08406444408996651 |
| 2026-05-14T11:00:53+08:00 | 0.117722124740788 |
| 2026-05-14T11:01:20+08:00 | 0.2134311692454937 |
| 2026-05-14T11:01:43+08:00 | 0.26415696283298773 |
| 2026-05-14T11:03:12+08:00 | 1.8993459881958845 |
| 2026-05-14T11:05:45+08:00 | 3.350933163183921 |
| 2026-05-14T11:46:09+08:00 | 3.361301643005264 |
| 2026-05-14T11:46:23+08:00 | 3.5048652097623227 |
| 2026-05-14T12:02:43+08:00 | 3.592438985484128 |
| 2026-05-14T12:08:31+08:00 | 3.6294464826926145 |
| 2026-05-14T12:10:12+08:00 | 3.845908438347424 |
| 2026-05-14T12:10:28+08:00 | 3.9894720051044823 |
| 2026-05-14T13:42:36+08:00 | 4.153293986281704 |
| 2026-05-14T13:42:44+08:00 | 4.162386345509651 |
| 2026-05-14T13:43:52+08:00 | 4.536768224597225 |
| 2026-05-14T13:44:16+08:00 | 4.568671239432127 |
| 2026-05-14T13:44:52+08:00 | 4.572021055989791 |
| 2026-05-14T13:45:09+08:00 | 4.604402616047216 |
| 2026-05-14T14:07:56+08:00 | 4.6173233370553515 |
| 2026-05-14T14:09:03+08:00 | 4.6583187111182 |
| 2026-05-14T14:09:37+08:00 | 4.662466103046738 |
| 2026-05-14T14:10:07+08:00 | 4.710320625299091 |
| 2026-05-14T14:11:01+08:00 | 5.186313606635827 |
| 2026-05-14T14:43:30+08:00 | 5.2121550486520976 |
| 2026-05-14T15:20:12+08:00 | 5.400701866326368 |
| 2026-05-14T15:20:48+08:00 | 5.719732014675387 |
| 2026-05-14T15:21:18+08:00 | 5.732333705535173 |
| 2026-05-14T15:57:42+08:00 | 5.766150901260169 |
| 2026-05-14T16:02:16+08:00 | 5.998404849258255 |
| 2026-05-14T16:02:36+08:00 | 6.020258414420162 |
| 2026-05-14T16:03:59+08:00 | 6.55287924708885 |
| 2026-05-14T16:05:57+08:00 | 6.648588291593556 |
| 2026-05-14T16:17:00+08:00 | 6.855957888020418 |
| 2026-05-14T16:33:45+08:00 | 6.966661349497527 |
| 2026-05-14T17:01:52+08:00 | 7.2601690859786245 |
| 2026-05-14T17:02:12+08:00 | 7.286808103365768 |
| 2026-05-14T17:05:21+08:00 | 8.160472164619556 |
| 2026-05-14T17:06:24+08:00 | 11.366725155527197 |
| 2026-05-14T17:36:47+08:00 | 11.214547774764716 |
| 2026-05-14T17:47:00+08:00 | 14.883394480778433 |
| 2026-05-14T18:04:22+08:00 | 14.981496251395757 |
| 2026-05-14T18:04:42+08:00 | 15.011644600414739 |
| 2026-05-14T18:04:47+08:00 | 15.783219014196842 |
| 2026-05-14T18:05:29+08:00 | 17.553836337533898 |
| 2026-05-14T18:06:03+08:00 | 17.772691019301323 |
| 2026-05-14T20:43:40+08:00 | 18.155527197320147 |
| 2026-05-14T20:44:02+08:00 | 18.180571063965544 |
| 2026-05-14T20:44:53+08:00 | 18.391769022172596 |
| 2026-05-14T20:45:34+08:00 | 18.41952464507896 |
| 2026-05-14T20:45:55+08:00 | 18.73855479342798 |
| 2026-05-14T20:46:09+08:00 | 18.821821662147073 |
| 2026-05-14T20:46:22+08:00 | 21.055032700590207 |
| 2026-05-14T22:14:05+08:00 | 21.061094273408838 |
| 2026-05-14T22:14:14+08:00 | 21.127452544265434 |
| 2026-05-14T22:14:52+08:00 | 21.733609826128568 |
| 2026-05-14T22:15:02+08:00 | 21.842080076567235 |
| 2026-05-14T22:15:41+08:00 | 22.28872228425586 |
| 2026-05-15T08:41:22+08:00 | 21.86696442813846 |
| 2026-05-15T08:41:30+08:00 | 22.82485244855639 |
| 2026-05-15T08:42:23+08:00 | 22.82485244855639 |
| 2026-05-15T08:42:44+08:00 | 25.313287605678738 |
| 2026-05-15T09:02:24+08:00 | 25.410113255702665 |
| 2026-05-15T09:03:02+08:00 | 25.85181049609188 |
| 2026-05-15T09:04:44+08:00 | 25.907640772052957 |
| 2026-05-15T09:05:50+08:00 | 25.54075610145159 |
| 2026-05-15T09:37:19+08:00 | 26.159355559100334 |
| 2026-05-15T10:20:49+08:00 | 26.46977189344393 |
| 2026-05-15T10:21:10+08:00 | 26.62785133195087 |
| 2026-05-15T10:22:07+08:00 | 26.669006221087894 |
| 2026-05-15T10:22:23+08:00 | 28.407720529590048 |
| 2026-05-15T10:37:00+08:00 | 28.531344712075292 |
| 2026-05-15T11:05:14+08:00 | 28.941457967777954 |
| 2026-05-15T11:05:33+08:00 | 29.06859148189504 |
| 2026-05-15T11:05:54+08:00 | 29.152974956133356 |
| 2026-05-15T11:06:12+08:00 | 31.673313128090605 |
| 2026-05-15T11:51:25+08:00 | 31.937310575849416 |
| 2026-05-15T12:02:06+08:00 | 32.06013718296379 |
| 2026-05-15T12:03:39+08:00 | 32.202743659275804 |
| 2026-05-15T12:08:04+08:00 | 36.812729302919124 |
| 2026-05-15T13:41:33+08:00 | 37.0175466581592 |
| 2026-05-15T13:41:35+08:00 | 37.03286010527995 |
| 2026-05-15T13:41:38+08:00 | 37.472802679853245 |
| 2026-05-15T13:41:46+08:00 | 40.04099537406285 |
| 2026-05-15T13:41:49+08:00 | 40.09427340883713 |
| 2026-05-15T14:01:05+08:00 | 40.69500717817834 |
| 2026-05-15T14:01:13+08:00 | 40.8216621470729 |
| 2026-05-15T14:03:54+08:00 | 41.20689105120434 |
| 2026-05-15T14:04:58+08:00 | 42.46658159196044 |
| 2026-05-15T14:05:12+08:00 | 44.50837454139416 |
| 2026-05-15T14:56:02+08:00 | 44.505024724836495 |
| 2026-05-15T15:01:14+08:00 | 44.68304354761525 |
| 2026-05-15T15:03:20+08:00 | 44.90891689264635 |
| 2026-05-15T15:05:20+08:00 | 46.77524326048812 |
| 2026-05-15T16:07:09+08:00 | 47.030467379167334 |
| 2026-05-15T16:07:40+08:00 | 47.026000957090446 |
| 2026-05-15T16:07:43+08:00 | 47.294464826926145 |
| 2026-05-15T16:07:46+08:00 | 47.71941298452704 |
| 2026-05-15T16:07:55+08:00 | 50.86185994576488 |
| 2026-05-15T17:08:47+08:00 | 50.86154091561652 |
| 2026-05-15T17:08:57+08:00 | 50.85994576487478 |
| 2026-05-15T17:08:59+08:00 | 51.28154410591801 |
| 2026-05-15T17:09:07+08:00 | 55.82772371989153 |
| 2026-05-15T17:33:38+08:00 | 63.00590205774446 |
| 2026-05-15T18:02:09+08:00 | 63.01132557026639 |
| 2026-05-15T18:08:09+08:00 | 63.20162705375658 |
| 2026-05-15T18:08:17+08:00 | 65.2115169883554 |
| 2026-05-15T18:29:48+08:00 | 67.01052799489551 |
| 2026-05-15T21:32:44+08:00 | 67.04083585898867 |
| 2026-05-15T21:32:48+08:00 | 67.96171638219812 |
| 2026-05-15T21:32:58+08:00 | 69.11022491625458 |
| 2026-05-15T21:33:02+08:00 | 69.19588451108629 |
| 2026-05-15T21:33:07+08:00 | 69.54426543308342 |
| 2026-05-15T21:33:16+08:00 | 69.9111501036848 |
| 2026-05-15T21:33:21+08:00 | 69.93092997288244 |
| 2026-05-15T21:33:26+08:00 | 70.50821502631999 |
| 2026-05-15T21:33:35+08:00 | 71.24198436752273 |
| 2026-05-15T22:12:25+08:00 | 72.0181847184559 |
| 2026-05-15T22:12:34+08:00 | 74.31520178656884 |
| 2026-05-16T09:17:08+08:00 | 74.49050885308662 |
| 2026-05-16T09:17:12+08:00 | 75.02424629127452 |
| 2026-05-16T09:17:17+08:00 | 75.12553836337534 |
| 2026-05-16T09:18:06+08:00 | 75.12553836337534 |
| 2026-05-16T09:18:53+08:00 | 76.30483330674748 |
| 2026-05-16T09:19:31+08:00 | 80.51603126495453 |
| 2026-05-16T09:19:43+08:00 | 80.99457648747807 |
| 2026-05-16T09:19:57+08:00 | 81.07401499441697 |
| 2026-05-16T11:00:44+08:00 | 81.15807943850695 |
| 2026-05-16T11:00:47+08:00 | 81.15855798372947 |
| 2026-05-16T11:00:56+08:00 | 81.25139575689903 |
| 2026-05-16T11:01:01+08:00 | 81.29079598022012 |
| 2026-05-16T11:01:27+08:00 | 81.29191258573935 |
| 2026-05-16T11:01:30+08:00 | 81.29701706811294 |
| 2026-05-16T11:01:45+08:00 | 81.42813845908438 |
| 2026-05-16T11:01:52+08:00 | 82.17785930770458 |
| 2026-05-16T11:14:28+08:00 | 82.18487797096826 |
| 2026-05-16T11:14:39+08:00 | 82.79103525283139 |
| 2026-05-16T11:53:57+08:00 | 82.79167331312809 |
| 2026-05-16T12:07:10+08:00 | 82.81528154410591 |
| 2026-05-16T12:07:35+08:00 | 82.81895039081193 |
| 2026-05-16T12:07:42+08:00 | 83.28154410591802 |
| 2026-05-16T13:53:49+08:00 | 83.27978944010209 |
| 2026-05-16T13:53:53+08:00 | 83.28361780188227 |
| 2026-05-16T13:53:57+08:00 | 83.29175307066518 |
| 2026-05-16T13:54:05+08:00 | 83.6107832190142 |
| 2026-05-16T18:15:06+08:00 | 83.72132716541714 |
| 2026-05-16T18:15:12+08:00 | 83.82405487318552 |
| 2026-05-16T18:15:17+08:00 | 83.84287765193811 |
| 2026-05-16T18:15:22+08:00 | 84.43420003190302 |
| 2026-05-16T18:15:27+08:00 | 84.45222523528473 |
| 2026-05-16T18:17:11+08:00 | 85.42526718774924 |
| 2026-05-16T18:17:16+08:00 | 85.76024884351571 |
| 2026-05-16T18:17:21+08:00 | 86.27069708087414 |
| 2026-05-16T18:17:26+08:00 | 87.05232094432924 |
| 2026-05-16T18:17:31+08:00 | 87.27564204817355 |
| 2026-05-16T18:17:55+08:00 | 87.29015791992343 |
| 2026-05-16T18:18:00+08:00 | 87.29669803796459 |
| 2026-05-16T18:18:05+08:00 | 87.29829318870634 |
| 2026-05-16T18:18:11+08:00 | 87.32046578401659 |
| 2026-05-16T18:18:16+08:00 | 87.32764396235444 |
| 2026-05-16T18:18:48+08:00 | 87.5281544105918 |
| 2026-05-16T18:18:53+08:00 | 87.54857234008614 |
| 2026-05-16T18:18:58+08:00 | 87.81942893603446 |
| 2026-05-16T18:21:01+08:00 | 87.81847184558941 |
| 2026-05-16T22:23:52+08:00 | 87.8329877173393 |
| 2026-05-16T22:24:22+08:00 | 87.83569947360026 |
| 2026-05-16T22:24:28+08:00 | 87.84080395597384 |
| 2026-05-16T22:24:34+08:00 | 87.84223959164142 |
| 2026-05-16T22:26:18+08:00 | 88.46466741107035 |
| 2026-05-16T22:26:23+08:00 | 88.69468814802998 |
| 2026-05-16T22:26:28+08:00 | 89.21359068431967 |
| 2026-05-16T22:26:32+08:00 | 89.22013080236083 |
| 2026-05-16T22:27:03+08:00 | 89.95390014356357 |
| 2026-05-16T22:27:08+08:00 | 89.96985165098101 |
| 2026-05-16T22:27:14+08:00 | 90.11341521773808 |
| 2026-05-16T22:27:19+08:00 | 90.28888179933004 |
| 2026-05-17T09:30:27+08:00 | 90.27739671398948 |
| 2026-05-17T09:30:46+08:00 | 90.46562450151539 |
| 2026-05-17T09:30:56+08:00 | 92.92215664380284 |
| 2026-05-17T09:31:00+08:00 | 93.12809060456213 |
| 2026-05-17T09:31:10+08:00 | 93.16382198117722 |
| 2026-05-17T09:31:14+08:00 | 94.61540915616526 |
| 2026-05-17T09:31:19+08:00 | 94.62625618120913 |
| 2026-05-17T10:09:07+08:00 | 94.62593715106078 |
| 2026-05-17T10:09:12+08:00 | 94.62753230180252 |
| 2026-05-17T10:09:17+08:00 | 94.66884670601372 |
| 2026-05-17T10:09:30+08:00 | 95.03573137661509 |
| 2026-05-17T12:41:46+08:00 | 95.11213909714468 |
| 2026-05-17T12:41:51+08:00 | 95.17546658159196 |
| 2026-05-17T12:42:06+08:00 | 95.81352687828999 |
| 2026-05-17T12:42:14+08:00 | 95.81799330036688 |
| 2026-05-17T12:42:19+08:00 | 95.8967937470091 |
| 2026-05-17T12:42:27+08:00 | 96.58270856595948 |
| 2026-05-17T12:42:31+08:00 | 96.58302759610783 |
| 2026-05-17T13:29:15+08:00 | 96.59483171159674 |
| 2026-05-17T13:29:20+08:00 | 96.97352049768703 |
| 2026-05-17T13:29:24+08:00 | 97.91465943531664 |
| 2026-05-17T16:15:51+08:00 | 97.91577604083587 |
| 2026-05-17T16:15:56+08:00 | 98.1126176423672 |
| 2026-05-17T16:16:02+08:00 | 98.1158079438507 |
| 2026-05-17T16:16:06+08:00 | 98.22332110384431 |
| 2026-05-17T16:16:16+08:00 | 98.28712713351412 |
| 2026-05-17T16:16:22+08:00 | 98.28744616366247 |
| 2026-05-17T16:16:27+08:00 | 98.34471207529111 |
| 2026-05-17T16:16:32+08:00 | 98.3504546179614 |
| 2026-05-17T16:16:37+08:00 | 98.40453022810655 |
| 2026-05-17T16:16:42+08:00 | 99.07449353963949 |
| 2026-05-17T16:16:46+08:00 | 99.08486201946084 |
| 2026-05-17T16:16:51+08:00 | 99.0862976551284 |
| 2026-05-17T16:16:56+08:00 | 99.17387143085021 |
| 2026-05-17T16:17:06+08:00 | 99.47695007178179 |
| 2026-05-17T17:55:27+08:00 | 99.47854522252352 |
| 2026-05-17T17:55:32+08:00 | 99.48620194608391 |
| 2026-05-17T17:55:41+08:00 | 99.90094113893763 |
| 2026-05-17T18:05:48+08:00 | 99.90269580475355 |
| 2026-05-17T18:05:53+08:00 | 99.9336417291434 |
| 2026-05-17T18:06:02+08:00 | 100.30052639974478 |
| 2026-05-17T20:26:28+08:00 | 100.37501993938427 |
| 2026-05-17T20:26:33+08:00 | 100.39224756739512 |
| 2026-05-17T20:26:40+08:00 | 100.9511883873026 |
| 2026-05-17T20:26:49+08:00 | 101.89232732493221 |
| 2026-05-17T20:26:53+08:00 | 101.89886744297335 |
| 2026-05-17T20:27:05+08:00 | 101.90732174190461 |
| 2026-05-17T20:27:15+08:00 | 102.22635189025362 |
| 2026-05-17T22:06:43+08:00 | 102.84527037805073 |
| 2026-05-17T22:06:49+08:00 | 102.93906524166533 |
| 2026-05-17T22:06:58+08:00 | 104.99680969851651 |
| 2026-05-17T22:07:02+08:00 | 105.11516988355399 |
| 2026-05-17T22:07:11+08:00 | 106.24772691019301 |
| 2026-05-18T08:23:48+08:00 | 106.36066358270857 |
| 2026-05-18T08:23:51+08:00 | 106.60216940500878 |
| 2026-05-18T08:24:29+08:00 | 106.60216940500878 |
| 2026-05-18T08:24:38+08:00 | 113.5570266390174 |
| 2026-05-18T09:24:57+08:00 | 113.63056308821183 |
| 2026-05-18T09:25:10+08:00 | 113.85595788802041 |
| 2026-05-18T09:25:18+08:00 | 113.66501834423353 |
| 2026-05-18T09:25:32+08:00 | 116.96698037964588 |
| 2026-05-18T10:05:59+08:00 | 116.97001116605519 |
| 2026-05-18T10:06:05+08:00 | 117.76758653692774 |
| 2026-05-18T10:06:12+08:00 | 119.3185516031265 |
| 2026-05-18T10:06:20+08:00 | 119.78305949912267 |
| 2026-05-18T10:08:01+08:00 | 121.75115648428776 |
| 2026-05-18T10:08:15+08:00 | 132.85340564683364 |
| 2026-05-18T10:50:59+08:00 | 134.43930451427659 |
| 2026-05-18T11:10:37+08:00 | 134.60902855319827 |
| 2026-05-18T11:11:08+08:00 | 137.15297495613336 |
| 2026-05-18T11:11:32+08:00 | 150.39272611261765 |
| 2026-05-18T11:53:11+08:00 | 150.6289679374701 |
| 2026-05-18T11:53:33+08:00 | 151.42654330834264 |
| 2026-05-18T12:08:12+08:00 | 152.19652257138299 |
| 2026-05-18T12:09:28+08:00 | 153.4048492582549 |
| 2026-05-18T12:10:09+08:00 | 160.8223002073696 |
| 2026-05-18T12:10:38+08:00 | 160.95326208326688 |
| 2026-05-18T13:44:29+08:00 | 161.40133992662305 |
| 2026-05-18T13:44:42+08:00 | 161.776040835859 |
| 2026-05-18T13:45:47+08:00 | 163.38427181368638 |
| 2026-05-18T13:46:24+08:00 | 170.91338331472323 |
| 2026-05-18T13:47:42+08:00 | 171.31871111820067 |
| 2026-05-18T13:48:03+08:00 | 171.38969532620834 |
| 2026-05-18T14:29:31+08:00 | 171.76280108470252 |
| 2026-05-18T14:30:33+08:00 | 173.46386983569948 |
| 2026-05-18T14:30:56+08:00 | 181.71079917052163 |
| 2026-05-18T14:31:24+08:00 | 181.92454936991547 |
| 2026-05-18T14:31:48+08:00 | 182.3010049449673 |
| 2026-05-18T14:32:56+08:00 | 185.82309778274046 |
| 2026-05-18T15:07:53+08:00 | 186.0293507736481 |
| 2026-05-18T15:08:14+08:00 | 187.90269580475356 |
| 2026-05-18T15:09:18+08:00 | 199.132557026639 |
| 2026-05-18T15:42:19+08:00 | 199.3340245653214 |
| 2026-05-18T15:42:27+08:00 | 200.19540596586378 |
| 2026-05-18T16:09:36+08:00 | 201.14356356675705 |
| 2026-05-18T16:10:23+08:00 | 212.40532780347743 |
| 2026-05-18T16:10:58+08:00 | 213.12984527037804 |
| 2026-05-18T16:11:36+08:00 | 214.86600733769342 |
| 2026-05-18T16:34:42+08:00 | 215.13048333067474 |
| 2026-05-18T17:16:21+08:00 | 215.39543786887862 |
| 2026-05-18T17:16:46+08:00 | 217.95262402297018 |
| 2026-05-18T17:18:00+08:00 | 228.00207369596427 |
| 2026-05-18T17:35:38+08:00 | 228.5519221566438 |
| 2026-05-18T18:09:27+08:00 | 235.88658478226193 |
| 2026-05-18T18:09:51+08:00 | 464.31217100015954 |
| 2026-05-18T18:10:13+08:00 | 465.00909235922796 |
| 2026-05-18T18:10:22+08:00 | 594.7599298133673 |
| 2026-05-18T18:11:19+08:00 | 633.0116446004147 |
| 2026-05-18T18:11:22+08:00 | 1213.6465145956292 |
| 2026-05-18T20:13:17+08:00 | 1258.284255862179 |
| 2026-05-18T20:13:53+08:00 | 1292.3242941457968 |
| 2026-05-18T20:15:08+08:00 | 1446.6533737438187 |
| 2026-05-18T20:15:32+08:00 | 2089.25985005583 |
| 2026-05-18T20:15:54+08:00 | 2472.17578561174 |
| 2026-05-18T22:04:02+08:00 | 2479.6857553038762 |
| 2026-05-18T22:05:08+08:00 | 2582.8872228425585 |
| 2026-05-18T22:05:31+08:00 | 2920.3732652735684 |
| 2026-05-18T22:05:50+08:00 | 3263.3625777635984 |
| 2026-05-19T08:37:08+08:00 | 3323.2188546817674 |
| 2026-05-19T08:37:11+08:00 | 3471.0877332907958 |
| 2026-05-19T08:39:05+08:00 | 3471.0877332907958 |
| 2026-05-19T08:39:38+08:00 | 4736.760089328442 |
| 2026-05-19T09:00:36+08:00 | 4745.3080236082305 |
| 2026-05-19T09:01:48+08:00 | 5008.172595310257 |
| 2026-05-19T09:13:42+08:00 | 5046.234646674111 |
| 2026-05-19T09:14:24+08:00 | 5085.438825969054 |
| 2026-05-19T09:15:31+08:00 | 5439.003987876855 |
| 2026-05-19T09:16:01+08:00 | 5517.166374222364 |
| 2026-05-19T10:02:05+08:00 | 5584.502791513798 |
| 2026-05-19T10:04:10+08:00 | 5647.27356835221 |
| 2026-05-19T10:05:39+08:00 | 6162.985803158398 |
| 2026-05-19T11:06:30+08:00 | 6167.869357154251 |
| 2026-05-19T11:37:45+08:00 | 6241.246291274525 |
| 2026-05-19T15:04:55+08:00 | 7292.450630084543 |
| 2026-05-19T17:40:37+08:00 | 7395.43 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 9015.11x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.470, 乙组 α=0.570) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
丹诺医药中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 丹诺医药（06872）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
