孖展动态 孖展倍数196.16x 孖展资金1404.2亿 捷利预测倍数262.86x
排名 券商 孖展资金
1 富途证券富途 774.7亿
2 辉立证券辉立 453.0亿
3 老虎国际老虎 48.9亿
4 华泰国际华泰 30.0亿
5 致富证券致富 21.0亿
6 华盛证券华盛 14.5亿
7 复星国际复星 13.8亿
8 盈立证券盈立 12.0亿
9 信诚证券信诚 12.0亿
孖展倍数
时间倍数
2026-06-30T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-30T10:28:54+08:000.001522792997946325
2026-06-30T10:28:59+08:000.002333086519789324
2026-06-30T11:20:26+08:000.005560290029198508
2026-06-30T11:20:31+08:000.007921317704913453
2026-06-30T11:20:37+08:000.009388228391008537
2026-06-30T11:20:51+08:000.7386523980497073
2026-06-30T12:14:18+08:000.7510582712806829
2026-06-30T12:19:17+08:000.7577362075469062
2026-06-30T12:22:08+08:000.7594685592142947
2026-06-30T12:23:50+08:000.7628494390812948
2026-06-30T12:27:02+08:001.163805026613951
2026-06-30T14:05:56+08:001.1662498777574428
2026-06-30T14:05:59+08:001.1681079646264967
2026-06-30T14:14:11+08:001.1713072269799802
2026-06-30T14:14:14+08:001.1812403079115383
2026-06-30T14:16:16+08:001.186926333142402
2026-06-30T14:16:18+08:001.1933527990052948
2026-06-30T14:19:57+08:001.1919557412090138
2026-06-30T14:20:00+08:001.3386468098185222
2026-06-30T14:24:45+08:001.3526173877813326
2026-06-30T14:25:00+08:001.3617401751910476
2026-06-30T14:25:03+08:001.3624945864010394
2026-06-30T14:31:02+08:001.4323055644812026
2026-06-30T15:03:45+08:001.4339540926808143
2026-06-30T15:05:41+08:001.4572989284566702
2026-06-30T15:09:10+08:001.457983486776848
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2026-06-30T15:17:14+08:002.94452283490968
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2026-06-30T16:28:58+08:003.0445940848572906
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2026-06-30T17:14:53+08:003.2112770505315806
2026-06-30T17:17:38+08:002.2165718995794856
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2026-06-30T18:07:00+08:002.9532544461364365
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2026-06-30T18:24:49+08:002.992861034661004
2026-06-30T18:25:36+08:003.164699143603571
2026-06-30T18:27:20+08:003.178669721566381
2026-06-30T20:08:40+08:003.185235893208902
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2026-06-30T20:15:28+08:003.207798376618841
2026-06-30T20:17:28+08:003.242976291929197
2026-06-30T20:19:07+08:003.628564243702762
2026-06-30T21:59:31+08:003.630785565598849
2026-06-30T22:07:07+08:003.630911300800514
2026-06-30T22:08:53+08:003.7314994621327484
2026-06-30T22:10:42+08:003.973190460889367
2026-07-01T08:44:40+08:004.008033082328616
2026-07-01T08:44:43+08:004.06517274619651
2026-07-01T08:58:04+08:005.325318878442001
2026-07-01T09:02:37+08:005.325318878442001
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2026-07-01T10:26:21+08:005.867377303399041
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2026-07-01T11:08:58+08:005.873901563307674
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2026-07-01T14:12:09+08:006.194805739113427
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2026-07-01T17:10:49+08:007.8789170007963225
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2026-07-01T18:19:54+08:008.055058047751436
2026-07-01T20:54:38+08:008.055560988558097
2026-07-01T20:58:38+08:008.101929336816664
2026-07-01T20:59:50+08:008.10100727867112
2026-07-01T21:01:52+08:008.416742340630632
2026-07-01T21:04:18+08:008.457424663658335
2026-07-01T22:10:24+08:008.517302560806941
2026-07-01T22:14:40+08:008.317523295938752
2026-07-02T08:45:04+08:008.339051956579445
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2026-07-02T08:52:28+08:0010.682378910015508
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2026-07-02T09:26:48+08:0011.135402841615557
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捷利预测倍数
时间倍数
券商孖展资金走势
时间券商孖展资金
预测模型 一手期望中签手数— 期望中签1手所需手数—
倍数推导
近期首日表现
-0.2%
→
参与人数
15,804
→
人均手数
42.4
→
认购倍数
9x
9x = 15,804 × 42.4 ÷ 71,365 A+H二次上市 · 参与×0.45 H股折价 31.0% 孖展加权 100% → 262.9x
1x1397.0x
分配手法系数 α
分配手法系数
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.56
分配手法系数 α
分配手法系数
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.67
此模型不适用分配手法调节

实际 vs 预测 对比

以实际认购倍数 327.49x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.565, 乙组 α=0.665) 为基准,对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数

申购手数 认购金额(HKD) 实际期望中签 预测期望中签 偏差

标志三环集团中签预测矩阵

行为申购档位,列为不同认购倍数,数值为期望中签手数,绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手;非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。

发售机制说明

机制B

《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%,不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%(因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者,基石投资者除外)。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益,自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。

分配手法系数 α

α 为发行人分配偏好系数,描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——无论申购多少手,每位中签者获配股数相同。对散户(小单申购)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——获配股数与申购手数成正比。对大额申购更有利。
  • 历史实际 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3–0.9,乙组 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差异较大,反映发行人各自的分配策略。
中签率定义

本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致:中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径,与其他网站可能使用的不同定义(如「申购人数中签比例」)有本质区别。

期望中签手数

期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数

例:某档位获配总股数 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

关于本页

本页展示 三环集团(06951)的中签预测:基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导,公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数;其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准,再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准;随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权;临近截止(进度约九成后)默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配,估计各申购档位的期望中签手数,并结合分配手法系数 α(人均分配至比例分配)给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α,覆盖 cibo 的默认预测,查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源:港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告;孖展数据(孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细)来自捷利交易宝(TradeGo),倍数仅覆盖已上报券商,捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新;中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中签率预测、中签画像与入通分析