孖展动态 孖展倍数2536.83x 孖展资金771.7亿 捷利预测倍数3272.51x
排名 券商 孖展资金
1 富途证券富途 475.1亿
2 辉立证券辉立 126.0亿
3 老虎国际老虎 84.9亿
4 华泰国际华泰 25.9亿
5 致富证券致富 14.4亿
6 华盛证券华盛 13.5亿
7 盈立证券盈立 10.2亿
8 复星国际复星 8.5亿
9 熊猫证券熊猫 5.4亿
孖展倍数
时间倍数
2026-06-29T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-29T10:11:27+08:000.06969099276791585
2026-06-29T11:01:27+08:000.15614727153188693
2026-06-29T11:04:43+08:000.36522024983563445
2026-06-29T11:05:37+08:000.43721236028928334
2026-06-29T11:07:14+08:002.7712031558185406
2026-06-29T11:41:50+08:002.8205128205128207
2026-06-29T12:15:06+08:002.848454963839579
2026-06-29T12:15:49+08:002.9694280078895465
2026-06-29T12:16:24+08:003.36620644312952
2026-06-29T12:17:40+08:003.563773833004602
2026-06-29T12:18:29+08:003.720249835634451
2026-06-29T12:19:02+08:005.462524654832347
2026-06-29T13:41:13+08:005.561801446416831
2026-06-29T13:42:48+08:005.925378040762656
2026-06-29T13:43:28+08:005.936883629191321
2026-06-29T13:43:57+08:006.206771860618015
2026-06-29T13:44:46+08:006.3208415516107825
2026-06-29T13:45:46+08:008.621959237343853
2026-06-29T14:01:40+08:008.728139381985535
2026-06-29T14:05:10+08:008.828731097961867
2026-06-29T14:05:50+08:008.993754109138724
2026-06-29T14:07:13+08:009.201840894148587
2026-06-29T14:07:59+08:009.207429322813939
2026-06-29T14:08:37+08:0011.870151216305063
2026-06-29T14:10:47+08:0012.157133464825773
2026-06-29T15:00:17+08:0012.280736357659434
2026-06-29T15:01:37+08:0012.388231426692965
2026-06-29T15:04:20+08:0013.844510190664037
2026-06-29T15:05:50+08:0014.438198553583169
2026-06-29T15:06:25+08:0014.450361604207759
2026-06-29T15:06:58+08:0015.863905325443787
2026-06-29T16:01:45+08:0017.48224852071006
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2026-06-29T16:04:47+08:0020.342209072978303
2026-06-29T16:09:09+08:0020.382642998027613
2026-06-29T16:11:50+08:0021.59894806048652
2026-06-29T16:12:34+08:0021.93819855358317
2026-06-29T17:08:07+08:0022.300460223537147
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2026-06-29T18:00:52+08:0032.8353057199211
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2026-06-29T18:04:31+08:0035.36916502301118
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2026-06-29T18:07:58+08:0035.61604207758054
2026-06-29T18:08:37+08:0038.9362261669954
2026-06-29T18:11:07+08:0041.12721893491124
2026-06-29T20:28:08+08:0042.16436554898093
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2026-06-29T20:31:07+08:0042.841222879684416
2026-06-29T20:37:52+08:0044.15055884286654
2026-06-29T20:41:33+08:0049.1801446416831
2026-06-29T21:09:27+08:0049.248849441157134
2026-06-29T22:07:03+08:0049.349112426035504
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2026-06-30T09:08:16+08:0057.58612754766601
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2026-06-30T09:13:52+08:0069.49178172255095
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2026-06-30T10:22:50+08:0073.14102564102564
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2026-06-30T11:48:22+08:0085.27087442472057
2026-06-30T12:14:15+08:0085.52268244575937
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2026-06-30T14:03:09+08:0091.33464825772518
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2026-06-30T14:15:35+08:0093.0706771860618
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2026-06-30T14:17:26+08:0093.54174884944116
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2026-06-30T14:19:15+08:0098.57232084155162
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2026-06-30T14:28:03+08:00110.21170282708744
2026-06-30T15:03:48+08:00110.29092702169625
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2026-06-30T16:28:55+08:00118.89119000657462
2026-06-30T16:32:40+08:00121.35404339250493
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2026-06-30T21:59:43+08:00155.21071663379357
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2026-07-01T08:45:38+08:00164.52235371466142
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捷利预测倍数
时间倍数
券商孖展资金走势
时间券商孖展资金
预测模型 一手期望中签手数— 期望中签1手所需手数—
倍数推导
近期首日表现
+4.6%
→
参与人数
16,062
→
人均手数
75.2
→
认购倍数
172x
172x = 16,062 × 75.2 ÷ 7,022 孖展加权 100% → 3272.5x
1x32873.0x
分配手法系数 α
分配手法系数
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.54
分配手法系数 α
分配手法系数
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.64
此模型不适用分配手法调节

实际 vs 预测 对比

以实际认购倍数 3646.06x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.536, 乙组 α=0.636) 为基准,对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数

申购手数 认购金额(HKD) 实际期望中签 预测期望中签 偏差

标志瑞为技术中签预测矩阵

行为申购档位,列为不同认购倍数,数值为期望中签手数,绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手;非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。

发售机制说明

18C特专科技

《主板规则》第18C章,为特专科技公司设立。机制A及机制B不适用。初订分配份额为5%,回补门槛:10倍至不足50倍→10%,50倍或以上→20%。根据第18C.08条,发售股份总数中至少50%须由配售部分的独立定价投资者认购。

分配手法系数 α

α 为发行人分配偏好系数,描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——无论申购多少手,每位中签者获配股数相同。对散户(小单申购)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——获配股数与申购手数成正比。对大额申购更有利。
  • 历史实际 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3–0.9,乙组 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差异较大,反映发行人各自的分配策略。
中签率定义

本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致:中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径,与其他网站可能使用的不同定义(如「申购人数中签比例」)有本质区别。

期望中签手数

期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数

例:某档位获配总股数 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

关于本页

本页展示 瑞为技术(07656)的中签预测:基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导,公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数;其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准,再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准;随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权;临近截止(进度约九成后)默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配,估计各申购档位的期望中签手数,并结合分配手法系数 α(人均分配至比例分配)给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α,覆盖 cibo 的默认预测,查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源:港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告;孖展数据(孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细)来自捷利交易宝(TradeGo),倍数仅覆盖已上报券商,捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新;中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中签率预测、中签画像与入通分析