孖展动态 孖展倍数562.99x 孖展资金1826.8亿 捷利预测倍数731.89x
排名 券商 孖展资金
1 富途证券富途 1293.5亿
2 老虎国际老虎 190.6亿
3 辉立证券辉立 113.0亿
4 华泰国际华泰 83.4亿
5 华盛证券华盛 32.0亿
6 致富证券致富 27.6亿
7 复星国际复星 27.0亿
8 盈立证券盈立 22.8亿
9 熊猫证券熊猫 10.9亿
孖展倍数
时间倍数
2026-06-17T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-17T10:12:55+08:000.00329758382642998
2026-06-17T10:13:00+08:000.007303994082840237
2026-06-17T10:13:06+08:000.08743219921104536
2026-06-17T11:15:53+08:000.10009861932938856
2026-06-17T11:16:24+08:000.10022189349112426
2026-06-17T11:18:09+08:000.1096215483234714
2026-06-17T11:19:07+08:000.11073101577909271
2026-06-17T11:19:57+08:000.8534578402366864
2026-06-17T12:15:08+08:000.8542899408284024
2026-06-17T12:16:33+08:000.9155571992110454
2026-06-17T12:19:00+08:000.9176836785009862
2026-06-17T12:19:55+08:000.9214435404339251
2026-06-17T12:20:43+08:001.220383382642998
2026-06-17T13:43:24+08:001.224944526627219
2026-06-17T13:44:33+08:001.2254684418145956
2026-06-17T13:45:57+08:001.3086168639053255
2026-06-17T13:48:06+08:001.3159208579881656
2026-06-17T13:50:27+08:001.750462278106509
2026-06-17T14:08:01+08:001.7730830867850098
2026-06-17T14:08:47+08:001.7732371794871795
2026-06-17T14:10:30+08:001.8073841222879685
2026-06-17T14:11:35+08:001.8098187869822486
2026-06-17T14:12:36+08:001.9762389053254439
2026-06-17T14:14:20+08:002.009861932938856
2026-06-17T15:07:18+08:002.2080867850098618
2026-06-17T15:08:35+08:002.2190890039447733
2026-06-17T15:09:19+08:002.2210613905325443
2026-06-17T15:09:56+08:002.2271018244575935
2026-06-17T15:11:38+08:002.8373089250493098
2026-06-17T16:27:06+08:002.8376171104536487
2026-06-17T16:28:00+08:002.8420241617357003
2026-06-17T16:31:09+08:002.8523483727810652
2026-06-17T16:32:44+08:003.832377958579882
2026-06-17T16:34:42+08:003.856416420118343
2026-06-17T16:36:05+08:003.8604844674556213
2026-06-17T17:01:25+08:003.922152366863905
2026-06-17T17:02:33+08:003.9521388067061145
2026-06-17T17:04:16+08:003.974420611439842
2026-06-17T17:06:09+08:003.9825875246548326
2026-06-17T17:07:11+08:004.293854783037475
2026-06-17T18:04:26+08:004.301097140039448
2026-06-17T18:05:26+08:004.303192800788954
2026-06-17T18:07:39+08:004.324457593688363
2026-06-17T18:08:17+08:004.335490631163708
2026-06-17T18:09:01+08:004.374568540433925
2026-06-17T18:09:36+08:004.639607988165681
2026-06-17T18:12:35+08:004.6775764299802765
2026-06-17T20:22:11+08:005.602132642998027
2026-06-17T20:23:40+08:005.610731015779093
2026-06-17T20:24:43+08:005.634091469428008
2026-06-17T20:25:47+08:005.6420118343195265
2026-06-17T20:27:08+08:005.66944033530572
2026-06-17T20:33:24+08:005.623212524654832
2026-06-17T22:23:45+08:005.623736439842209
2026-06-17T22:25:36+08:005.644662228796844
2026-06-17T22:26:07+08:005.644908777120316
2026-06-17T22:27:33+08:005.6692246055226825
2026-06-17T22:28:48+08:005.841808431952662
2026-06-18T09:17:03+08:005.861717209072978
2026-06-18T09:17:10+08:005.862241124260355
2026-06-18T09:17:17+08:005.862241124260355
2026-06-18T09:17:22+08:005.909670857988166
2026-06-18T09:17:28+08:005.9098865877712035
2026-06-18T09:17:34+08:006.5570759368836296
2026-06-18T09:17:41+08:006.653568786982248
2026-06-18T09:17:55+08:006.836168639053255
2026-06-18T09:18:01+08:006.846554487179487
2026-06-18T09:18:07+08:006.846955128205129
2026-06-18T09:18:13+08:006.927083333333333
2026-06-18T10:07:06+08:006.989336785009862
2026-06-18T10:07:11+08:006.996979783037475
2026-06-18T10:07:17+08:006.998582347140039
2026-06-18T10:07:22+08:006.997996794871795
2026-06-18T10:07:29+08:007.003266765285996
2026-06-18T10:07:41+08:007.004684418145956
2026-06-18T10:07:48+08:007.050912228796844
2026-06-18T11:19:27+08:007.08817184418146
2026-06-18T11:20:31+08:007.091900887573964
2026-06-18T11:22:39+08:007.110823471400394
2026-06-18T11:22:51+08:007.111193293885601
2026-06-18T11:25:42+08:008.146696252465484
2026-06-18T12:16:15+08:008.147959812623274
2026-06-18T12:18:59+08:008.249167899408285
2026-06-18T12:20:32+08:008.270062869822485
2026-06-18T12:22:41+08:008.40726701183432
2026-06-18T12:23:18+08:008.558277859960553
2026-06-18T14:06:07+08:008.574889053254438
2026-06-18T14:06:09+08:008.577693540433925
2026-06-18T14:09:50+08:008.596646942800788
2026-06-18T14:09:56+08:008.640008629191321
2026-06-18T14:11:35+08:008.640039447731755
2026-06-18T14:11:44+08:008.64031681459566
2026-06-18T14:12:49+08:008.791327662721894
2026-06-18T14:12:53+08:009.03171227810651
2026-06-18T14:13:49+08:009.06878698224852
2026-06-18T14:13:52+08:009.083764792899409
2026-06-18T14:16:28+08:009.107556706114398
2026-06-18T14:16:31+08:009.108943540433925
2026-06-18T14:19:58+08:009.189410749506903
2026-06-18T15:11:52+08:009.248304980276133
2026-06-18T15:11:58+08:009.268090483234714
2026-06-18T15:12:24+08:009.284763313609467
2026-06-18T15:12:35+08:009.454419378698224
2026-06-18T15:12:47+08:009.790341469428007
2026-06-18T16:12:08+08:009.853858481262327
2026-06-18T16:13:01+08:009.854289940828401
2026-06-18T16:14:26+08:009.958086785009861
2026-06-18T16:15:36+08:009.958333333333334
2026-06-18T16:16:38+08:009.991031804733728
2026-06-18T16:17:35+08:0011.701460798816568
2026-06-18T16:18:16+08:0011.732279339250493
2026-06-18T17:47:59+08:0011.879591962524655
2026-06-18T17:49:58+08:0012.027428500986193
2026-06-18T17:51:50+08:0012.043793145956608
2026-06-18T17:53:15+08:0012.078094181459566
2026-06-18T17:53:57+08:0013.514238165680473
2026-06-18T17:55:43+08:0014.2847016765286
2026-06-18T18:11:29+08:0014.36479906311637
2026-06-18T18:11:41+08:0014.395617603550296
2026-06-18T18:11:48+08:0014.420364891518737
2026-06-18T18:11:53+08:0014.431644477317555
2026-06-18T18:12:05+08:0014.75597879684418
2026-06-18T18:12:17+08:0014.757889546351084
2026-06-18T18:12:25+08:0016.089250493096646
2026-06-18T18:16:41+08:0016.55048076923077
2026-06-18T20:30:04+08:0016.57066691321499
2026-06-18T20:31:04+08:0016.637851331360945
2026-06-18T20:32:47+08:0016.684325690335307
2026-06-18T20:33:59+08:0016.721955128205128
2026-06-18T20:35:07+08:0016.750832100591715
2026-06-18T20:36:07+08:0018.606108234714004
2026-06-18T21:34:34+08:0018.624476084812624
2026-06-18T22:09:21+08:0018.65874630177515
2026-06-18T22:09:48+08:0018.68891765285996
2026-06-18T22:10:24+08:0018.716808431952664
2026-06-18T22:10:45+08:0019.80778476331361
2026-06-19T09:17:30+08:0022.90812993096647
2026-06-19T09:17:35+08:0023.675511587771204
2026-06-19T09:20:08+08:0023.717671351084814
2026-06-19T09:21:37+08:0023.830189842209073
2026-06-19T09:24:47+08:0023.909979043392504
2026-06-19T09:26:41+08:0023.918916420118343
2026-06-19T09:31:34+08:0024.701614891518737
2026-06-19T09:33:07+08:0024.701614891518737
2026-06-19T10:17:00+08:0024.702077169625248
2026-06-19T10:17:34+08:0024.71230892504931
2026-06-19T10:19:24+08:0024.71372657790927
2026-06-19T10:20:45+08:0024.717147435897434
2026-06-19T10:23:20+08:0024.71717825443787
2026-06-19T10:24:50+08:0025.09008259368836
2026-06-19T11:40:11+08:0025.091900887573964
2026-06-19T11:41:58+08:0025.09381163708087
2026-06-19T11:43:16+08:0025.09828032544379
2026-06-19T11:44:43+08:0025.113258136094675
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2026-06-19T11:50:30+08:0025.36190212031558
2026-06-19T12:08:05+08:0025.363134861932938
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2026-06-19T12:12:52+08:0025.38843688362919
2026-06-19T12:13:28+08:0025.388929980276135
2026-06-19T12:14:38+08:0025.502958579881657
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2026-06-19T15:16:14+08:0026.162875986193296
2026-06-19T15:16:53+08:0026.182846400394478
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2026-06-19T15:21:19+08:0026.37278106508876
2026-06-19T17:10:04+08:0026.37580128205128
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2026-06-19T22:48:31+08:0026.818478796844182
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2026-06-20T18:41:03+08:0032.40902366863905
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捷利预测倍数
时间倍数
券商孖展资金走势
时间券商孖展资金
预测模型 一手期望中签手数— 期望中签1手所需手数—
倍数推导
近期首日表现
+4.6%
→
参与人数
17,828
→
人均手数
27.2
→
认购倍数
19x
19x = 17,828 × 27.2 ÷ 25,678 A+H二次上市 · 参与×0.44 H股折价 56.0% 孖展加权 100% → 731.9x
1x3081.0x
分配手法系数 α
分配手法系数
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.53
分配手法系数 α
分配手法系数
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.63
此模型不适用分配手法调节

实际 vs 预测 对比

以实际认购倍数 1007.22x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.526, 乙组 α=0.626) 为基准,对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数

申购手数 认购金额(HKD) 实际期望中签 预测期望中签 偏差

标志芯碁微装中签预测矩阵

行为申购档位,列为不同认购倍数,数值为期望中签手数,绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手;非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。

发售机制说明

机制B

《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%,不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%(因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者,基石投资者除外)。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益,自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。

分配手法系数 α

α 为发行人分配偏好系数,描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——无论申购多少手,每位中签者获配股数相同。对散户(小单申购)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——获配股数与申购手数成正比。对大额申购更有利。
  • 历史实际 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3–0.9,乙组 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差异较大,反映发行人各自的分配策略。
中签率定义

本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致:中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径,与其他网站可能使用的不同定义(如「申购人数中签比例」)有本质区别。

期望中签手数

期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数

例:某档位获配总股数 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

关于本页

本页展示 芯碁微装(09630)的中签预测:基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导,公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数;其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准,再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准;随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权;临近截止(进度约九成后)默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配,估计各申购档位的期望中签手数,并结合分配手法系数 α(人均分配至比例分配)给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α,覆盖 cibo 的默认预测,查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源:港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告;孖展数据(孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细)来自捷利交易宝(TradeGo),倍数仅覆盖已上报券商,捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新;中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中签率预测、中签画像与入通分析