孖展动态 孖展倍数295.78x 孖展资金1087.8亿 捷利预测倍数343.11x
排名 券商 孖展资金
1 富途证券富途 680.9亿
2 辉立证券辉立 205.0亿
3 老虎国际老虎 107.9亿
4 华泰国际华泰 59.4亿
5 华盛证券华盛 15.1亿
6 长桥证券长桥 5.4亿
7 盈立证券盈立 5.2亿
8 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 3.4亿
9 FunderstoneFunderstone 2.3亿
孖展倍数
时间倍数
2025-12-30T06:00:00+08:000
2025-12-30T10:03:17+08:000.00416043507817811
2025-12-30T10:03:33+08:000.05813732154996601
2025-12-30T10:03:45+08:000.07605710401087695
2025-12-30T10:07:06+08:000.15763426240652617
2025-12-30T10:34:31+08:000.1577702243371856
2025-12-30T11:16:23+08:000.1647858599592114
2025-12-30T11:16:41+08:000.19961930659415364
2025-12-30T11:16:56+08:000.7760978925900748
2025-12-30T11:17:13+08:000.8984636301835486
2025-12-30T11:17:24+08:000.917226376614548
2025-12-30T12:14:48+08:000.9192658055744392
2025-12-30T12:15:21+08:000.9363426240652617
2025-12-30T12:15:44+08:001.0342352141400408
2025-12-30T12:16:05+08:001.1084160435078179
2025-12-30T13:49:00+08:001.1117878993881714
2025-12-30T13:49:39+08:001.1179877634262407
2025-12-30T13:49:59+08:001.8195513256288238
2025-12-30T13:50:21+08:001.8388851121685927
2025-12-30T13:50:39+08:001.8552005438477226
2025-12-30T14:02:28+08:001.858382053025153
2025-12-30T14:03:44+08:001.8825016995241333
2025-12-30T14:05:10+08:001.8847586675730796
2025-12-30T14:08:11+08:002.1430863358259686
2025-12-30T14:08:32+08:002.1661726716519376
2025-12-30T15:04:05+08:002.1663902107409925
2025-12-30T15:04:21+08:002.1679673691366417
2025-12-30T15:04:54+08:002.1826784500339906
2025-12-30T15:05:12+08:002.19393609789259
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2025-12-30T16:02:05+08:002.290496261046907
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2025-12-30T16:11:01+08:002.6317063222297756
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2025-12-30T17:12:47+08:002.8516655336505776
2025-12-30T17:12:57+08:002.879700883752549
2025-12-30T17:13:09+08:004.2447586675730795
2025-12-30T17:54:59+08:005.6043779741672335
2025-12-30T18:01:09+08:005.606526172671652
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2025-12-30T18:09:41+08:006.138382053025153
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2025-12-30T20:47:13+08:008.923589394969408
2025-12-30T20:47:30+08:009.075866757307955
2025-12-30T20:48:07+08:009.075893949694086
2025-12-30T21:40:02+08:009.191053704962611
2025-12-30T21:40:25+08:009.563589394969409
2025-12-30T22:22:31+08:009.563371855880353
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2025-12-30T22:23:11+08:009.61052345343304
2025-12-30T22:23:25+08:0010.002093813732156
2025-12-31T08:57:42+08:0010.002066621346023
2025-12-31T08:58:21+08:0010.002719238613189
2025-12-31T08:59:12+08:0010.08709721278042
2025-12-31T08:59:15+08:0010.610849762066621
2025-12-31T08:59:31+08:0010.610849762066621
2025-12-31T08:59:54+08:0011.075839564921822
2025-12-31T09:00:11+08:0011.133487423521414
2025-12-31T10:02:25+08:0011.138001359619306
2025-12-31T10:03:38+08:0011.547246770904147
2025-12-31T10:03:41+08:0011.599592114208022
2025-12-31T10:05:06+08:0011.607450713800135
2025-12-31T10:06:23+08:0011.74613188307274
2025-12-31T10:06:27+08:0011.936478585995921
2025-12-31T10:09:04+08:0012.3637525492862
2025-12-31T11:02:58+08:0012.635676410605031
2025-12-31T11:04:43+08:0012.769435757987763
2025-12-31T11:06:03+08:0012.770849762066621
2025-12-31T11:07:21+08:0012.835594833446635
2025-12-31T11:08:29+08:0013.270673011556765
2025-12-31T12:02:55+08:0013.272386131883072
2025-12-31T12:04:46+08:0013.358341264445954
2025-12-31T12:06:24+08:0013.389422161794698
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2025-12-31T13:44:10+08:0013.737239972807615
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2025-12-31T13:44:16+08:0013.733242692046227
2025-12-31T13:44:19+08:0013.997008837525494
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2025-12-31T14:24:45+08:0014.178273283480625
2025-12-31T14:24:51+08:0014.223657375934739
2025-12-31T14:24:55+08:0014.22368456832087
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2025-12-31T14:31:36+08:0015.076220258327668
2025-12-31T15:27:17+08:0015.210169952413324
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2025-12-31T15:27:33+08:0015.342868796736914
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2025-12-31T15:27:49+08:0015.463711760707001
2025-12-31T15:27:55+08:0016.554126444595514
2025-12-31T15:33:05+08:0016.564840244731474
2025-12-31T16:20:09+08:0017.231053704962612
2025-12-31T16:20:12+08:0017.241794697484703
2025-12-31T16:20:22+08:0017.260258327668254
2025-12-31T16:20:25+08:0017.47738953093134
2025-12-31T16:20:27+08:0017.477307953772943
2025-12-31T16:20:30+08:0018.32299116247451
2025-12-31T16:32:29+08:0018.326553365057784
2025-12-31T16:49:56+08:0018.327341944255608
2025-12-31T17:01:24+08:0018.344418762746432
2025-12-31T17:04:08+08:0018.4862270564242
2025-12-31T17:05:21+08:0018.6
2025-12-31T17:06:01+08:0019.38314072059823
2025-12-31T17:25:31+08:0019.383358259687288
2025-12-31T18:07:57+08:0019.516600951733516
2025-12-31T18:09:08+08:0019.538518014955812
2025-12-31T18:09:34+08:0019.539388171312034
2025-12-31T18:10:39+08:0019.66512576478586
2025-12-31T18:13:39+08:0020.47654656696125
2025-12-31T18:19:25+08:0020.84636301835486
2025-12-31T19:57:33+08:0020.860883752549285
2025-12-31T19:57:47+08:0020.86110129163834
2025-12-31T19:57:56+08:0020.861291638341264
2025-12-31T19:58:43+08:0020.861672331747112
2025-12-31T19:59:12+08:0020.95651937457512
2025-12-31T20:00:04+08:0021.089762066621347
2025-12-31T20:06:36+08:0021.1081441196465
2025-12-31T20:08:13+08:0021.23594833446635
2025-12-31T21:37:17+08:0021.657811012916383
2025-12-31T21:38:39+08:0021.902542488103332
2025-12-31T22:12:47+08:0021.903793337865398
2025-12-31T22:13:01+08:0021.986322229775663
2025-12-31T22:14:05+08:0022.42411964649898
2026-01-01T09:20:31+08:0022.45283480625425
2026-01-01T09:22:28+08:0022.452780421481986
2026-01-01T09:23:05+08:0022.474860639021074
2026-01-01T09:26:16+08:0022.690169952413324
2026-01-01T09:27:17+08:0022.690169952413324
2026-01-01T09:27:43+08:0023.544010876954452
2026-01-01T09:28:22+08:0023.601114887831407
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2026-01-01T10:07:50+08:0023.623657375934737
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2026-01-01T13:15:17+08:0023.72984364377974
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2026-01-01T13:16:36+08:0023.737566281441197
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2026-01-01T13:21:26+08:0024.11078178110129
2026-01-01T13:22:20+08:0024.200516655336507
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2026-01-01T16:21:14+08:0024.31420802175391
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2026-01-01T16:25:26+08:0025.280299116247452
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2026-01-01T18:18:55+08:0025.73601631543168
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2026-01-02T10:10:08+08:0032.40160435078178
2026-01-02T11:18:51+08:0032.750129163834124
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捷利预测倍数
时间倍数
券商孖展资金走势
时间券商孖展资金
预测模型 一手期望中签手数— 期望中签1手所需手数—
倍数推导
近期首日表现
+4.6%
→
参与人数
21,903
→
人均手数
45.1
→
认购倍数
39x
39x = 21,903 × 45.1 ÷ 25,432 孖展加权 100% → 343.1x
1x2719.0x
分配手法系数 α
分配手法系数
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.55
分配手法系数 α
分配手法系数
反映发行人对不同申购规模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人获配相同股数,与申购手数无关。
α → 1  按申购量比例分配 — 申购手数越多,获配越多。
历史 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3 – 0.9,乙组 0.4 – 1.0
0.65
此模型不适用分配手法调节

实际 vs 预测 对比

以实际认购倍数 10.68x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.553, 乙组 α=0.653) 为基准,对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数

申购手数 认购金额(HKD) 实际期望中签 预测期望中签 偏差

标志天数智芯中签预测矩阵

行为申购档位,列为不同认购倍数,数值为期望中签手数,绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手;非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。

发售机制说明

机制B

《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%,不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%(因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者,基石投资者除外)。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益,自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。

分配手法系数 α

α 为发行人分配偏好系数,描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——无论申购多少手,每位中签者获配股数相同。对散户(小单申购)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——获配股数与申购手数成正比。对大额申购更有利。
  • 历史实际 α 区间(P10–P90):甲组 0.3–0.9,乙组 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差异较大,反映发行人各自的分配策略。
中签率定义

本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致:中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径,与其他网站可能使用的不同定义(如「申购人数中签比例」)有本质区别。

期望中签手数

期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数

例:某档位获配总股数 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

关于本页

本页展示 天数智芯(09903)的中签预测:基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导,公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数;其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准,再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准;随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权;临近截止(进度约九成后)默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配,估计各申购档位的期望中签手数,并结合分配手法系数 α(人均分配至比例分配)给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α,覆盖 cibo 的默认预测,查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源:港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告;孖展数据(孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细)来自捷利交易宝(TradeGo),倍数仅覆盖已上报券商,捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新;中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中签率预测、中签画像与入通分析