东鹏饮料 09980
新股中签预测
99.4501.14%( -1.150 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  辉立 |
195.0亿 |
| 2 |  富途 |
158.3亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
38.4亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
21.4亿 |
| 5 |  招银 |
8.0亿 |
| 6 |  TradeGo |
6.8亿 |
| 7 |  长桥 |
3.5亿 |
| 8 |  盈立 |
3.2亿 |
| 9 |  信诚 |
3.0亿 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-26T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-01-26T10:13:57+08:00 | 0.008687763172167602 |
| 2026-01-26T10:13:59+08:00 | 0.021043912155965565 |
| 2026-01-26T10:14:02+08:00 | 0.029751397832496772 |
| 2026-01-26T10:14:07+08:00 | 0.05144615263246127 |
| 2026-01-26T10:44:06+08:00 | 0.05151518139773389 |
| 2026-01-26T11:07:31+08:00 | 0.05761929649826935 |
| 2026-01-26T11:07:43+08:00 | 0.11470608537872139 |
| 2026-01-26T11:07:49+08:00 | 0.13227883676669264 |
| 2026-01-26T11:07:53+08:00 | 0.3423235082390762 |
| 2026-01-26T12:01:10+08:00 | 0.3708323882966659 |
| 2026-01-26T12:04:25+08:00 | 0.37102961334030193 |
| 2026-01-26T12:04:32+08:00 | 0.3967674815348053 |
| 2026-01-26T12:04:35+08:00 | 0.43705069669746666 |
| 2026-01-26T12:05:14+08:00 | 0.4883292080428373 |
| 2026-01-26T13:37:33+08:00 | 0.4883982368081099 |
| 2026-01-26T13:37:36+08:00 | 0.48859546185174596 |
| 2026-01-26T13:37:58+08:00 | 0.48958158706992616 |
| 2026-01-26T13:38:03+08:00 | 0.5169761456309723 |
| 2026-01-26T13:38:07+08:00 | 0.525210291202777 |
| 2026-01-26T13:38:10+08:00 | 0.5843778042935892 |
| 2026-01-26T14:00:22+08:00 | 0.5832141765361366 |
| 2026-01-26T14:01:17+08:00 | 0.5936671038488467 |
| 2026-01-26T14:06:23+08:00 | 0.6031536284477403 |
| 2026-01-26T14:06:29+08:00 | 0.6052836589190095 |
| 2026-01-26T14:06:35+08:00 | 0.670367923318903 |
| 2026-01-26T15:07:41+08:00 | 0.6661473073850918 |
| 2026-01-26T15:07:55+08:00 | 0.7026832467186683 |
| 2026-01-26T15:07:59+08:00 | 0.7114400386561085 |
| 2026-01-26T15:08:03+08:00 | 0.7587740491287583 |
| 2026-01-26T15:51:55+08:00 | 0.759040302937667 |
| 2026-01-26T16:21:31+08:00 | 0.7604504619996647 |
| 2026-01-26T16:21:40+08:00 | 1.0453913437928348 |
| 2026-01-26T16:21:45+08:00 | 1.044089658504837 |
| 2026-01-26T16:21:51+08:00 | 1.1624246846864614 |
| 2026-01-26T16:35:04+08:00 | 1.162444407190825 |
| 2026-01-26T16:58:16+08:00 | 1.172305659372627 |
| 2026-01-26T17:00:07+08:00 | 1.1736369284171704 |
| 2026-01-26T17:04:52+08:00 | 1.3621643476288618 |
| 2026-01-26T17:04:56+08:00 | 1.379638486495015 |
| 2026-01-26T17:06:50+08:00 | 2.0995098957665643 |
| 2026-01-26T17:20:38+08:00 | 2.099578924531837 |
| 2026-01-26T17:43:50+08:00 | 2.720837811985366 |
| 2026-01-26T17:48:13+08:00 | 2.721281568333547 |
| 2026-01-26T18:01:01+08:00 | 2.723007287465362 |
| 2026-01-26T18:01:13+08:00 | 3.087873618192038 |
| 2026-01-26T18:16:46+08:00 | 3.0899444811502166 |
| 2026-01-26T18:16:51+08:00 | 3.2467581133452326 |
| 2026-01-26T18:16:55+08:00 | 3.298095792203694 |
| 2026-01-26T18:17:00+08:00 | 3.51898784107606 |
| 2026-01-26T18:17:14+08:00 | 3.516986006883154 |
| 2026-01-26T18:18:21+08:00 | 3.6100762274793654 |
| 2026-01-26T20:09:28+08:00 | 3.610303036279547 |
| 2026-01-26T20:09:34+08:00 | 3.6468389756131234 |
| 2026-01-26T20:09:44+08:00 | 4.091482836490577 |
| 2026-01-26T20:09:49+08:00 | 4.146173341090852 |
| 2026-01-26T20:09:54+08:00 | 4.20137663080458 |
| 2026-01-26T20:10:00+08:00 | 4.309850404804402 |
| 2026-01-26T20:10:18+08:00 | 4.3724003273935725 |
| 2026-01-26T20:10:23+08:00 | 4.396806926543532 |
| 2026-01-26T20:10:29+08:00 | 4.52697545534332 |
| 2026-01-26T22:09:06+08:00 | 4.530525506128768 |
| 2026-01-26T22:09:11+08:00 | 4.551914562111097 |
| 2026-01-26T22:09:16+08:00 | 4.561075665387991 |
| 2026-01-26T22:09:21+08:00 | 4.69913319593322 |
| 2026-01-26T22:09:25+08:00 | 4.699340282229038 |
| 2026-01-26T22:09:38+08:00 | 4.71954598794955 |
| 2026-01-26T22:09:43+08:00 | 4.732858678394982 |
| 2026-01-26T22:09:47+08:00 | 4.842318577612986 |
| 2026-01-27T08:36:48+08:00 | 4.8786178468941985 |
| 2026-01-27T08:37:16+08:00 | 4.92815091660339 |
| 2026-01-27T08:37:20+08:00 | 5.1203861666354396 |
| 2026-01-27T08:37:24+08:00 | 5.1203861666354396 |
| 2026-01-27T08:37:44+08:00 | 5.1204058891398025 |
| 2026-01-27T08:37:49+08:00 | 5.655871882611654 |
| 2026-01-27T09:11:01+08:00 | 5.662222529016734 |
| 2026-01-27T09:11:18+08:00 | 5.783289122052718 |
| 2026-01-27T09:11:23+08:00 | 5.787519599238712 |
| 2026-01-27T09:11:29+08:00 | 5.838798110584082 |
| 2026-01-27T09:11:56+08:00 | 5.887315471318548 |
| 2026-01-27T10:00:37+08:00 | 5.987535377242202 |
| 2026-01-27T10:09:10+08:00 | 6.054059384460639 |
| 2026-01-27T10:09:16+08:00 | 6.335105071641997 |
| 2026-01-27T10:09:29+08:00 | 6.332353782283274 |
| 2026-01-27T10:26:33+08:00 | 6.332126973483093 |
| 2026-01-27T11:09:23+08:00 | 6.339858195193625 |
| 2026-01-27T11:10:28+08:00 | 6.409074324257694 |
| 2026-01-27T11:10:49+08:00 | 6.420010452927313 |
| 2026-01-27T11:11:00+08:00 | 6.958434822053705 |
| 2026-01-27T11:32:23+08:00 | 6.962882246787697 |
| 2026-01-27T11:50:45+08:00 | 6.963326003135879 |
| 2026-01-27T12:10:59+08:00 | 6.969844290828049 |
| 2026-01-27T12:11:32+08:00 | 7.024929245515596 |
| 2026-01-27T12:12:00+08:00 | 7.017128995039791 |
| 2026-01-27T12:12:11+08:00 | 7.127575019475973 |
| 2026-01-27T13:49:33+08:00 | 7.1274566844497915 |
| 2026-01-27T13:49:54+08:00 | 7.144802627037581 |
| 2026-01-27T13:50:04+08:00 | 7.131322295305058 |
| 2026-01-27T13:50:20+08:00 | 7.100752413541471 |
| 2026-01-27T13:50:32+08:00 | 7.100821442306744 |
| 2026-01-27T14:07:39+08:00 | 7.111047560819273 |
| 2026-01-27T14:08:01+08:00 | 7.053733963138639 |
| 2026-01-27T14:08:14+08:00 | 7.056672616288816 |
| 2026-01-27T14:09:21+08:00 | 7.298440936030057 |
| 2026-01-27T15:01:23+08:00 | 7.299525673770055 |
| 2026-01-27T15:02:57+08:00 | 7.388276943406273 |
| 2026-01-27T15:03:40+08:00 | 7.368298046485942 |
| 2026-01-27T15:03:56+08:00 | 7.379046811364107 |
| 2026-01-27T15:05:57+08:00 | 7.48850671058211 |
| 2026-01-27T16:02:44+08:00 | 7.494482629404282 |
| 2026-01-27T16:03:27+08:00 | 7.501050223357362 |
| 2026-01-27T16:04:06+08:00 | 7.505389174317354 |
| 2026-01-27T16:05:22+08:00 | 7.691766840553414 |
| 2026-01-27T17:21:08+08:00 | 7.691835869318686 |
| 2026-01-27T17:21:13+08:00 | 7.712613527665743 |
| 2026-01-27T17:22:02+08:00 | 8.846657528572978 |
| 2026-01-27T17:22:12+08:00 | 8.908438273491967 |
| 2026-01-27T17:22:20+08:00 | 8.924936148392122 |
| 2026-01-27T17:22:25+08:00 | 9.00481229106472 |
| 2026-01-27T17:33:31+08:00 | 9.00125237902709 |
| 2026-01-27T18:04:32+08:00 | 9.00502923861272 |
| 2026-01-27T18:05:10+08:00 | 9.006528148944353 |
| 2026-01-27T18:05:17+08:00 | 9.072598538562426 |
| 2026-01-27T18:05:45+08:00 | 9.163253029869733 |
| 2026-01-27T18:12:49+08:00 | 9.27727868884791 |
| 2026-01-27T20:20:31+08:00 | 9.277347717613182 |
| 2026-01-27T20:20:42+08:00 | 9.277574526413364 |
| 2026-01-27T20:20:56+08:00 | 9.329060124054552 |
| 2026-01-27T20:21:05+08:00 | 9.330282919325096 |
| 2026-01-27T20:21:10+08:00 | 9.382547555888646 |
| 2026-01-27T20:21:36+08:00 | 9.404360645714792 |
| 2026-01-27T20:21:44+08:00 | 9.406244144881517 |
| 2026-01-27T20:21:49+08:00 | 9.37271588746339 |
| 2026-01-27T21:26:32+08:00 | 9.361197944915045 |
| 2026-01-27T21:26:47+08:00 | 9.361040164880137 |
| 2026-01-27T21:26:52+08:00 | 9.452749810170895 |
| 2026-01-27T22:07:29+08:00 | 9.443243563067638 |
| 2026-01-27T22:07:37+08:00 | 9.453331624049621 |
| 2026-01-27T22:07:42+08:00 | 9.519402013667696 |
| 2026-01-28T08:34:05+08:00 | 9.42612442928003 |
| 2026-01-28T08:34:08+08:00 | 9.456142080921435 |
| 2026-01-28T08:34:16+08:00 | 9.86538404646622 |
| 2026-01-28T08:34:53+08:00 | 9.869831471200213 |
| 2026-01-28T08:35:57+08:00 | 9.871034543966394 |
| 2026-01-28T08:36:25+08:00 | 9.871034543966394 |
| 2026-01-28T09:19:40+08:00 | 9.871103572731666 |
| 2026-01-28T09:20:21+08:00 | 9.87719782658002 |
| 2026-01-28T09:20:50+08:00 | 9.896220182038716 |
| 2026-01-28T09:21:20+08:00 | 9.899563146528346 |
| 2026-01-28T09:21:31+08:00 | 9.930133028291932 |
| 2026-01-28T09:22:22+08:00 | 9.959884426124429 |
| 2026-01-28T10:20:29+08:00 | 10.012444900253435 |
| 2026-01-28T10:20:41+08:00 | 10.03371562120958 |
| 2026-01-28T10:21:03+08:00 | 10.033262003609218 |
| 2026-01-28T10:21:09+08:00 | 10.037689705838847 |
| 2026-01-28T10:21:15+08:00 | 10.03775873460412 |
| 2026-01-28T10:21:21+08:00 | 10.368110682694489 |
| 2026-01-28T10:21:57+08:00 | 10.375654540613567 |
| 2026-01-28T11:03:58+08:00 | 10.37572356937884 |
| 2026-01-28T11:04:09+08:00 | 10.388050134606093 |
| 2026-01-28T11:04:37+08:00 | 10.402477146548069 |
| 2026-01-28T11:05:07+08:00 | 10.416628043428954 |
| 2026-01-28T11:05:16+08:00 | 10.817981007228298 |
| 2026-01-28T11:32:40+08:00 | 10.818109203506662 |
| 2026-01-28T11:32:44+08:00 | 10.818848797420296 |
| 2026-01-28T12:02:07+08:00 | 10.835405839833543 |
| 2026-01-28T12:09:06+08:00 | 10.922214442789945 |
| 2026-01-28T12:09:27+08:00 | 10.922707505399035 |
| 2026-01-28T12:09:35+08:00 | 11.209669943889475 |
| 2026-01-28T13:41:35+08:00 | 11.216336150364373 |
| 2026-01-28T13:41:39+08:00 | 11.216375595373101 |
| 2026-01-28T13:41:56+08:00 | 11.217884366956916 |
| 2026-01-28T13:42:01+08:00 | 11.219580502332185 |
| 2026-01-28T13:42:28+08:00 | 11.250653307957045 |
| 2026-01-28T13:42:59+08:00 | 11.503101363811176 |
| 2026-01-28T14:16:57+08:00 | 11.520171191337877 |
| 2026-01-28T14:17:10+08:00 | 11.561549005492717 |
| 2026-01-28T14:17:21+08:00 | 11.571114420109065 |
| 2026-01-28T14:18:01+08:00 | 11.967536757817507 |
| 2026-01-28T14:18:33+08:00 | 12.258690228485213 |
| 2026-01-28T15:24:08+08:00 | 12.270504008599012 |
| 2026-01-28T15:24:12+08:00 | 12.279655250623724 |
| 2026-01-28T15:24:17+08:00 | 12.281883893616811 |
| 2026-01-28T15:24:19+08:00 | 12.282682655043537 |
| 2026-01-28T15:24:47+08:00 | 12.35871290936523 |
| 2026-01-28T15:25:28+08:00 | 13.003638802055084 |
| 2026-01-28T15:25:42+08:00 | 13.012109617679252 |
| 2026-01-28T15:26:10+08:00 | 13.005137712386718 |
| 2026-01-28T16:13:07+08:00 | 13.07809125602769 |
| 2026-01-28T16:13:23+08:00 | 13.460707840681609 |
| 2026-01-28T16:15:53+08:00 | 13.65793288431765 |
| 2026-01-28T17:10:08+08:00 | 13.715266204502647 |
| 2026-01-28T17:10:14+08:00 | 14.35821984675614 |
| 2026-01-28T17:32:36+08:00 | 19.929827329474296 |
| 2026-01-28T17:50:35+08:00 | 19.92996538700484 |
| 2026-01-28T18:02:31+08:00 | 19.98205252102912 |
| 2026-01-28T18:05:49+08:00 | 19.998254558363822 |
| 2026-01-28T18:05:55+08:00 | 20.161951344581734 |
| 2026-01-28T18:11:16+08:00 | 21.08750875186131 |
| 2026-01-28T19:59:50+08:00 | 21.088238484522766 |
| 2026-01-28T20:00:05+08:00 | 21.119735323991442 |
| 2026-01-28T20:00:10+08:00 | 21.371197254627393 |
| 2026-01-28T20:00:19+08:00 | 21.38009210409538 |
| 2026-01-28T20:00:33+08:00 | 21.380289329139014 |
| 2026-01-28T20:00:43+08:00 | 21.42475371522676 |
| 2026-01-28T20:20:11+08:00 | 21.42870807735166 |
| 2026-01-28T20:20:15+08:00 | 21.871478300314575 |
| 2026-01-28T21:34:41+08:00 | 21.878223396806927 |
| 2026-01-28T21:35:16+08:00 | 21.882532764010374 |
| 2026-01-28T21:35:42+08:00 | 21.88364708550692 |
| 2026-01-28T21:35:56+08:00 | 21.960367627481336 |
| 2026-01-28T21:36:01+08:00 | 22.236482688571794 |
| 2026-01-28T22:14:53+08:00 | 22.236541856084887 |
| 2026-01-28T22:15:02+08:00 | 22.29479227272279 |
| 2026-01-28T22:15:06+08:00 | 22.77897975484927 |
| 2026-01-29T08:54:11+08:00 | 23.32018499709093 |
| 2026-01-29T08:54:25+08:00 | 23.32018499709093 |
| 2026-01-29T08:54:42+08:00 | 24.037305117003758 |
| 2026-01-29T08:54:51+08:00 | 26.968069265435325 |
| 2026-01-29T08:55:07+08:00 | 27.03147711696431 |
| 2026-01-29T09:32:12+08:00 | 27.031506700720858 |
| 2026-01-29T09:32:23+08:00 | 27.16432790635755 |
| 2026-01-29T09:32:30+08:00 | 27.16241482343428 |
| 2026-01-29T09:32:39+08:00 | 28.208693679923478 |
| 2026-01-29T09:32:46+08:00 | 28.204463202737482 |
| 2026-01-29T10:28:33+08:00 | 28.208841598706204 |
| 2026-01-29T10:28:41+08:00 | 28.20904868500202 |
| 2026-01-29T10:28:48+08:00 | 28.338418452375084 |
| 2026-01-29T10:28:54+08:00 | 30.471407299298864 |
| 2026-01-29T10:29:00+08:00 | 30.471338270533593 |
| 2026-01-29T11:08:48+08:00 | 42.009003323241984 |
| 2026-01-29T11:13:00+08:00 | 42.36598065222322 |
| 2026-01-29T11:14:21+08:00 | 43.62 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 57.46x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.615, 乙组 α=0.715) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
东鹏饮料中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 东鹏饮料（09980）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
