孖展動態 孖展倍數188.6x 孖展資金905.3億 捷利預測倍數252.72x
排名 券商 孖展資金
1 富途证券富途 468.3億
2 辉立证券辉立 300.0億
3 老虎国际老虎 57.0億
4 华泰国际华泰 30.0億
5 信诚证券信诚 10.0億
6 致富证券致富 8.9億
7 华盛证券华盛 6.0億
8 盈立证券盈立 5.9億
9 复星国际复星 5.4億
孖展倍數
時間倍數
2026-06-30T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-30T10:27:40+08:000.0004791467022207408
2026-06-30T10:27:48+08:000.006228907128869631
2026-06-30T11:17:28+08:000.009416274321903255
2026-06-30T11:17:34+08:000.030207074705220615
2026-06-30T11:17:40+08:000.036873463605683096
2026-06-30T11:17:52+08:000.14520228323819842
2026-06-30T12:14:27+08:000.14824382317403442
2026-06-30T12:19:06+08:000.19317945085621432
2026-06-30T12:21:31+08:000.2012207824673972
2026-06-30T12:24:09+08:000.20305403941502437
2026-06-30T12:26:53+08:000.9488562976542644
2026-06-30T14:04:09+08:000.9528561309945419
2026-06-30T14:04:13+08:000.9547727178034249
2026-06-30T14:07:33+08:000.9573559435023541
2026-06-30T14:07:37+08:000.9768967959668348
2026-06-30T14:14:50+08:000.9957710095412691
2026-06-30T14:14:53+08:001.0291237865088954
2026-06-30T14:16:09+08:001.0389775426023915
2026-06-30T14:16:11+08:001.041123286529728
2026-06-30T14:20:13+08:001.4848547977167619
2026-06-30T14:20:16+08:001.5494354401899921
2026-06-30T14:24:42+08:001.5661014124411483
2026-06-30T14:30:22+08:001.6017249281279946
2026-06-30T15:03:37+08:001.6151618682554894
2026-06-30T15:05:55+08:001.6422649056289322
2026-06-30T15:09:12+08:001.646139744177326
2026-06-30T15:10:21+08:002.0252906128911294
2026-06-30T15:17:00+08:002.031290362901546
2026-06-30T15:20:25+08:002.052122828215491
2026-06-30T16:29:06+08:002.0991417024290655
2026-06-30T16:32:54+08:002.611537019290863
2026-06-30T16:37:12+08:002.6143910670388735
2026-06-30T16:39:55+08:002.628557143452356
2026-06-30T16:41:39+08:002.8368817965918085
2026-06-30T17:06:56+08:002.8360693304445648
2026-06-30T17:08:26+08:002.8510270405399774
2026-06-30T17:11:20+08:002.8613391108703805
2026-06-30T17:14:57+08:002.8624223990667055
2026-06-30T17:17:47+08:002.9770009582934045
2026-06-30T17:48:05+08:003.7269697095954335
2026-06-30T18:06:18+08:003.87665097287613
2026-06-30T18:12:32+08:003.9141702429065455
2026-06-30T18:17:44+08:003.921211616182659
2026-06-30T18:20:57+08:003.948314653556102
2026-06-30T18:24:55+08:003.949460439148369
2026-06-30T18:25:45+08:004.145285613099454
2026-06-30T18:27:15+08:004.166118078413399
2026-06-30T20:08:56+08:004.175534352735303
2026-06-30T20:12:26+08:004.17815924336486
2026-06-30T20:15:33+08:004.202408232990292
2026-06-30T20:17:10+08:004.24976042664889
2026-06-30T20:19:20+08:004.724740635806842
2026-06-30T21:59:25+08:004.726469730427898
2026-06-30T22:08:34+08:004.792987792175326
2026-06-30T22:10:50+08:005.047143869005458
2026-07-01T08:44:11+08:005.084079830007083
2026-07-01T08:44:16+08:004.735302695721011
2026-07-01T08:58:12+08:005.587350527061372
2026-07-01T09:02:12+08:005.587350527061372
2026-07-01T09:05:37+08:005.633098620890796
2026-07-01T09:12:38+08:005.637890087913004
2026-07-01T09:13:59+08:005.65455606016416
2026-07-01T09:18:17+08:005.67420107495521
2026-07-01T09:24:09+08:005.855047706345569
2026-07-01T10:18:17+08:005.856568476313487
2026-07-01T10:22:09+08:005.865693096120995
2026-07-01T10:26:29+08:005.986521394941877
2026-07-01T10:28:20+08:005.989687929669597
2026-07-01T11:09:06+08:005.9902504062330735
2026-07-01T11:10:30+08:006.008624640639973
2026-07-01T11:13:33+08:006.00997875088538
2026-07-01T11:16:09+08:006.010728719636682
2026-07-01T11:20:11+08:006.121140785800591
2026-07-01T12:13:46+08:006.132098662555727
2026-07-01T12:18:09+08:006.135202699887505
2026-07-01T12:19:40+08:006.135181867422191
2026-07-01T12:21:08+08:006.149764593141953
2026-07-01T14:10:57+08:006.14209824590642
2026-07-01T14:11:00+08:006.142494062747385
2026-07-01T14:15:15+08:006.129702929044623
2026-07-01T14:15:17+08:006.144348152160327
2026-07-01T14:18:50+08:006.198512561976584
2026-07-01T14:18:52+08:006.2880921628265485
2026-07-01T14:25:20+08:006.288258822549061
2026-07-01T14:25:22+08:006.29005041456606
2026-07-01T14:31:05+08:006.334319403358194
2026-07-01T15:09:46+08:006.343589850422899
2026-07-01T15:12:57+08:006.378692554476896
2026-07-01T15:18:04+08:006.383734011082872
2026-07-01T15:19:53+08:006.442064913961918
2026-07-01T16:14:56+08:006.442544060664139
2026-07-01T16:18:03+08:006.522499062539061
2026-07-01T16:22:09+08:006.637077621765759
2026-07-01T16:23:34+08:006.637619265863922
2026-07-01T17:03:51+08:006.638994208574642
2026-07-01T17:06:33+08:006.6565768092996125
2026-07-01T17:10:57+08:006.762822382400733
2026-07-01T17:12:39+08:006.777092621140786
2026-07-01T18:02:33+08:006.777571767843007
2026-07-01T18:04:32+08:006.788196325153119
2026-07-01T18:08:25+08:006.827694679388359
2026-07-01T18:09:57+08:006.988104662305737
2026-07-01T18:18:46+08:007.590142077413441
2026-07-01T20:58:20+08:007.609182950710387
2026-07-01T21:00:04+08:007.6094954376900965
2026-07-01T21:02:01+08:007.803237365109787
2026-07-01T21:04:13+08:007.820882463230698
2026-07-01T22:05:38+08:007.820819965834757
2026-07-01T22:10:10+08:007.896545977250948
2026-07-01T22:14:53+08:007.571559518353402
2026-07-02T08:43:55+08:007.62176575976001
2026-07-02T08:43:57+08:007.730511228698804
2026-07-02T08:52:19+08:009.207533019457523
2026-07-02T08:58:47+08:009.207533019457523
2026-07-02T09:00:50+08:009.253364443148202
2026-07-02T09:13:08+08:009.256405983084038
2026-07-02T09:19:01+08:009.296633473605267
2026-07-02T09:26:54+08:009.419524186492229
2026-07-02T09:29:51+08:009.47877171784509
2026-07-02T09:33:14+08:009.495437690096246
2026-07-02T09:51:32+08:009.324465647264697
2026-07-02T10:14:24+08:009.506062247406359
2026-07-02T10:16:58+08:009.509645431440356
2026-07-02T10:19:17+08:009.511395358526729
2026-07-02T10:21:48+08:009.514791050372901
2026-07-02T10:25:43+08:009.775196866797216
2026-07-02T11:09:57+08:009.782467397191784
2026-07-02T11:14:07+08:009.871547018874214
2026-07-02T11:15:18+08:0010.198616724303154
2026-07-02T11:17:03+08:0010.200616640973292
2026-07-02T11:18:38+08:0010.206741385775592
2026-07-02T12:11:43+08:0010.208428815466021
2026-07-02T12:16:58+08:0010.290696220990792
2026-07-02T12:20:11+08:0010.316674305237282
2026-07-02T12:21:45+08:0010.722907378859214
2026-07-02T12:24:05+08:0010.73761509937086
2026-07-02T13:43:29+08:0010.810528727969668
2026-07-02T14:08:40+08:0010.813486938044248
2026-07-02T14:08:42+08:0010.813966084746468
2026-07-02T14:12:54+08:0011.113995250197908
2026-07-02T14:12:56+08:0011.202512395316862
2026-07-02T14:18:53+08:0011.211657847589684
2026-07-02T14:18:55+08:0011.214741052456148
2026-07-02T14:21:14+08:0011.223324028165493
2026-07-02T14:21:16+08:0011.58997541769093
2026-07-02T14:21:19+08:0011.597204283154868
2026-07-02T14:21:22+08:0011.89719178367568
2026-07-02T14:36:39+08:0012.478959210032915
2026-07-02T15:01:17+08:0012.481188283821508
2026-07-02T15:03:50+08:0012.501520769967918
2026-07-02T15:06:42+08:0012.558601724928128
2026-07-02T15:12:08+08:0012.5619974167743
2026-07-02T15:13:24+08:0013.02656139327528
2026-07-02T16:05:18+08:0013.354901879088372
2026-07-02T16:07:38+08:0013.354756051831174
2026-07-02T16:10:29+08:0013.370067913836923
2026-07-02T16:11:58+08:0014.055456022665723
2026-07-02T16:14:24+08:0014.066768051331195
2026-07-02T17:04:28+08:0014.118245073121953
2026-07-02T17:06:25+08:0014.134786050581226
2026-07-02T17:08:49+08:0014.1774717720095
2026-07-02T17:11:23+08:0014.184013166118078
2026-07-02T17:14:27+08:0014.994396066830548
2026-07-02T17:15:37+08:0015.015228532144494
2026-07-02T18:10:17+08:0015.16274321903254
2026-07-02T18:17:39+08:0015.187950502062414
2026-07-02T18:19:29+08:0015.198533394441899
2026-07-02T18:21:29+08:0015.32009082954877
2026-07-02T18:22:29+08:0015.336652639473355
2026-07-02T18:24:11+08:0015.55539352526978
2026-07-02T18:27:00+08:0020.221865755593516
2026-07-02T20:41:55+08:0020.2237823424024
2026-07-02T20:44:15+08:0020.257510103745677
2026-07-02T20:46:45+08:0020.289508770467897
2026-07-02T20:49:45+08:0020.472771967834674
2026-07-02T20:51:59+08:0021.362318236740137
2026-07-02T21:50:41+08:0021.378380067497186
2026-07-02T22:07:01+08:0021.41714928544644
2026-07-02T22:09:55+08:0021.869567934669387
2026-07-02T22:12:07+08:0023.2340944127328
2026-07-03T08:39:57+08:0023.673180284154828
2026-07-03T08:40:01+08:0024.385879755010208
2026-07-03T08:46:04+08:0024.385879755010208
2026-07-03T08:48:32+08:0027.883650681221617
2026-07-03T09:01:31+08:0028.091975334361067
2026-07-03T09:02:23+08:0028.18201324944794
2026-07-03T09:06:58+08:0028.368734636056832
2026-07-03T09:10:03+08:0028.558955876838464
2026-07-03T09:12:38+08:0028.758760051664513
2026-07-03T09:14:40+08:0029.004583142369068
2026-07-03T09:19:17+08:0029.51620765801425
2026-07-03T10:16:35+08:0029.554268572142828
2026-07-03T10:17:50+08:0029.56268488812966
2026-07-03T10:20:33+08:0031.03970667888838
2026-07-03T10:27:15+08:0031.068413816090995
2026-07-03T10:30:06+08:0031.097829257114288
2026-07-03T11:12:53+08:0031.136035998500063
2026-07-03T11:14:02+08:0031.149785425607266
2026-07-03T11:16:19+08:0031.397691762843216
2026-07-03T11:18:21+08:0031.407774676055165
2026-07-03T11:19:16+08:0031.417399275030206
2026-07-03T12:28:29+08:0031.540706637223447
2026-07-03T12:30:12+08:0031.570413732761136
2026-07-03T12:31:00+08:0031.98289654597725
2026-07-03T12:32:57+08:0032.0147910503729
2026-07-03T12:34:49+08:0032.03018624223991
2026-07-03T13:40:26+08:0032.049768759635015
2026-07-03T13:42:04+08:0032.050497895921005
2026-07-03T13:43:34+08:0032.265072288654636
2026-07-03T13:44:36+08:0032.2709887088038
2026-07-03T13:45:47+08:0032.280425815591016
2026-07-03T14:01:04+08:0032.29273780259156
2026-07-03T14:03:20+08:0032.40571226198908
2026-07-03T14:07:31+08:0032.60970376234324
2026-07-03T14:09:13+08:0032.607662180742466
2026-07-03T14:10:47+08:0032.87223449022957
2026-07-03T14:13:09+08:0032.88465063955668
2026-07-03T15:19:51+08:0032.906233073621934
2026-07-03T15:21:21+08:0032.936523478188406
2026-07-03T15:22:09+08:0033.33650681221616
2026-07-03T15:24:53+08:0033.3476313486938
2026-07-03T15:25:36+08:0033.35481854922712
2026-07-03T16:04:32+08:0033.42423232365318
2026-07-03T16:06:04+08:0033.42983625682263
2026-07-03T16:06:41+08:0033.9006499729178
2026-07-03T16:07:40+08:0033.93000291654514
2026-07-03T16:09:13+08:0033.943939835840176
2026-07-03T17:09:19+08:0034.022457397608434
2026-07-03T17:10:43+08:0034.10080829965418
2026-07-03T17:12:57+08:0034.108849631265365
2026-07-03T17:13:38+08:0034.152097829257116
2026-07-03T17:15:31+08:0034.61041206616391
2026-07-03T17:18:06+08:0036.67282613224449
2026-07-03T18:32:48+08:0047.922357401774924
2026-07-03T18:33:45+08:0048.06818465897254
2026-07-03T18:34:21+08:0048.11991167034707
2026-07-03T18:37:59+08:0048.06614307737178
2026-07-03T18:39:13+08:0048.088850464563976
2026-07-03T18:40:25+08:0048.24213574434398
2026-07-03T18:43:11+08:0048.62753635265197
2026-07-03T18:48:12+08:0048.90081663264031
2026-07-03T21:05:23+08:0048.93360693304446
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2026-07-03T21:09:19+08:0049.05056039331694
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2026-07-03T21:14:32+08:0049.68624223990667
2026-07-03T21:15:19+08:0050.64453564434815
2026-07-04T09:35:08+08:0050.64453564434815
2026-07-04T09:36:37+08:0050.71776175992667
2026-07-04T09:37:44+08:0050.75451022874047
2026-07-04T09:39:58+08:0050.940981625765595
2026-07-04T09:41:32+08:0051.012457814257736
2026-07-04T09:42:53+08:0052.5498937544269
2026-07-04T09:43:35+08:0052.74988542144077
2026-07-04T10:26:59+08:0052.75478105078955
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2026-07-04T12:02:54+08:0052.93914836881797
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2026-07-04T21:33:52+08:0055.64691054539394
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2026-07-05T09:47:22+08:0056.248197991750345
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2026-07-05T09:53:53+08:0057.55089371276197
2026-07-05T09:54:28+08:0057.578850881213285
2026-07-05T12:19:39+08:0057.93091954501896
2026-07-05T12:20:26+08:0058.3704845631432
2026-07-05T12:21:04+08:0058.93504437315112
2026-07-05T12:23:13+08:0058.948002166576394
2026-07-05T12:23:53+08:0058.95791842006583
2026-07-05T12:24:34+08:0058.966480563309865
2026-07-05T12:28:13+08:0058.967980500812466
2026-07-05T12:28:41+08:0058.977709262114075
2026-07-05T12:29:12+08:0059.00870797050123
2026-07-05T12:31:14+08:0059.10137077621766
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2026-07-05T12:32:19+08:0059.253864422315736
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捷利預測倍數
時間倍數
券商孖展資金走勢
時間券商孖展資金
預測模型 一手期望中籤手數— 期望中籤1手所需手數—
倍數推導
近期首日表現
+4.6%
→
參與人數
16,274
→
人均手數
17.1
→
認購倍數
22x
22x = 16,274 × 17.1 ÷ 12,632 A+H二次上市 · 參與×0.44 H股折價 27.8% 孖展加權 100% → 252.7x
1x2083.0x
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.47
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.57
此模型不適用分配手法調節

實際 vs 預測 對比

以實際認購倍數 354.64x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.474, 乙組 α=0.574) 為基準,對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數

申購手數 認購金額(HKD) 實際期望中籤 預測期望中籤 偏差

標誌鼎泰高科中籤預測矩陣

行為申購檔位,列為不同認購倍數,數值為期望中籤手數,綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手;非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。

發售機制說明

機制B

《第18項應用指引》下的靈活發售機制。最低初訂分配份額爲發售股份的10%,不設回補機制。最高初訂分配份額爲發售股份的60%(因《第18項應用指引》規定發售股份總數至少40%須分配予配售部分投資者,基石投資者除外)。發行人可根據發售結構、市場狀況及散戶投資者利益,自行釐定公開認購部分的初訂分配份額。

分配手法係數 α

α 為發行人分配偏好係數,描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——無論申購多少手,每位中籤者獲配股數相同。對散戶(小單申購)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——獲配股數與申購手數成正比。對大額申購更有利。
  • 歷史實際 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3–0.9,乙組 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差異較大,反映發行人各自的分配策略。
中籤率定義

本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致:中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑,與其他網站可能使用的不同定義(如「申購人數中籤比例」)有本質區別。

期望中籤手數

期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數

例:某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

關於本頁

本頁展示 鼎泰高科(01377)的中籤預測:基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導,公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數;其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準,再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準;隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權;臨近截止(進度約九成後)默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配,估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數,並結合分配手法係數 α(人均分配至比例分配)給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α,覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測,查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源:港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告;孖展數據(孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細)來自捷利交易寶(TradeGo),倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商,捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新;中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中籤率預測、中籤畫像與入通分析