诺比侃 02635
新股中籤預測
5.1007.69%( -0.425 )
11月13日 · 收市數據，非即時 · 香港交易所
基於相似IPO匹配的期望中籤預測
新股中籤預測| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展資金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
39.9億 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
9.0億 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
6.2億 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
4.2億 |
| 5 | 卓锐证券 | 4164萬 |
| 6 |  信诚 |
3000萬 |
| 7 |  华盛 |
2450萬 |
| 8 |  盈立 |
1910萬 |
| 9 |  长桥 |
1482萬 |
| 11 |  TradeGo |
944萬 |
| 12 |  盈宝 |
237萬 |
| 13 |  艾德 |
71萬 |
| 時間 | 倍數 |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-15T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-12-15T10:17:30+08:00 | 0.0014947683109118087 |
| 2025-12-15T10:17:37+08:00 | 0.03587443946188341 |
| 2025-12-15T10:19:09+08:00 | 0.08570004982561036 |
| 2025-12-15T11:15:57+08:00 | 0.08769307424015944 |
| 2025-12-15T11:16:39+08:00 | 0.09566517189835576 |
| 2025-12-15T11:17:30+08:00 | 0.11733931240657698 |
| 2025-12-15T11:18:59+08:00 | 0.16716492277030393 |
| 2025-12-15T12:05:29+08:00 | 0.1684105630293971 |
| 2025-12-15T12:06:11+08:00 | 0.19257598405580467 |
| 2025-12-15T12:07:10+08:00 | 0.26980568011958145 |
| 2025-12-15T12:08:15+08:00 | 0.4192825112107623 |
| 2025-12-15T12:08:42+08:00 | 0.4441953163926258 |
| 2025-12-15T13:45:00+08:00 | 0.46811160936721474 |
| 2025-12-15T13:46:20+08:00 | 0.47110114598903835 |
| 2025-12-15T13:47:52+08:00 | 0.9942700548081714 |
| 2025-12-15T13:50:59+08:00 | 0.9980069755854509 |
| 2025-12-15T13:51:53+08:00 | 1.0104633781763828 |
| 2025-12-15T14:02:02+08:00 | 1.0112107623318385 |
| 2025-12-15T14:05:05+08:00 | 1.0194319880418534 |
| 2025-12-15T14:07:44+08:00 | 1.0373692077727952 |
| 2025-12-15T14:08:46+08:00 | 1.2117588440458396 |
| 2025-12-15T14:09:33+08:00 | 1.2122571001494769 |
| 2025-12-15T15:10:10+08:00 | 1.2149975087194818 |
| 2025-12-15T15:11:55+08:00 | 1.2214748380667664 |
| 2025-12-15T15:13:04+08:00 | 1.3211260587942202 |
| 2025-12-15T15:33:02+08:00 | 1.3460388639760836 |
| 2025-12-15T16:08:16+08:00 | 1.3480318883906328 |
| 2025-12-15T16:09:30+08:00 | 1.4225211758844045 |
| 2025-12-15T16:10:37+08:00 | 1.6467364225211758 |
| 2025-12-15T17:11:37+08:00 | 1.647982062780269 |
| 2025-12-15T17:12:21+08:00 | 1.7473841554559044 |
| 2025-12-15T17:13:28+08:00 | 1.747633283507723 |
| 2025-12-15T17:14:46+08:00 | 2.37045341305431 |
| 2025-12-15T17:33:56+08:00 | 3.366965620328849 |
| 2025-12-15T18:06:41+08:00 | 3.3687095166915793 |
| 2025-12-15T18:07:09+08:00 | 3.393622321873443 |
| 2025-12-15T18:07:54+08:00 | 4.018933731938216 |
| 2025-12-15T18:09:56+08:00 | 4.666666666666667 |
| 2025-12-15T18:14:06+08:00 | 4.787742899850524 |
| 2025-12-15T20:12:57+08:00 | 4.7924763328350775 |
| 2025-12-15T20:14:36+08:00 | 4.806925759840558 |
| 2025-12-15T20:15:28+08:00 | 4.808669656203288 |
| 2025-12-15T20:15:37+08:00 | 5.344544095665172 |
| 2025-12-15T20:17:04+08:00 | 5.4691081215744894 |
| 2025-12-15T20:17:40+08:00 | 4.348031888390633 |
| 2025-12-15T22:13:37+08:00 | 4.351519681116094 |
| 2025-12-15T22:14:49+08:00 | 4.402341803687095 |
| 2025-12-15T22:16:09+08:00 | 4.452167414050822 |
| 2025-12-15T22:16:47+08:00 | 5.473592426507225 |
| 2025-12-16T08:55:19+08:00 | 5.497010463378176 |
| 2025-12-16T08:56:20+08:00 | 5.497010463378176 |
| 2025-12-16T08:57:31+08:00 | 5.639511709018436 |
| 2025-12-16T08:58:44+08:00 | 6.087942202291978 |
| 2025-12-16T09:00:42+08:00 | 6.118335824613852 |
| 2025-12-16T09:03:09+08:00 | 6.145739910313901 |
| 2025-12-16T09:05:52+08:00 | 6.220478325859491 |
| 2025-12-16T09:54:37+08:00 | 6.270303936223219 |
| 2025-12-16T10:05:24+08:00 | 6.407075236671649 |
| 2025-12-16T10:06:15+08:00 | 6.41429995017439 |
| 2025-12-16T10:06:25+08:00 | 6.4374688589935225 |
| 2025-12-16T10:07:28+08:00 | 6.661684105630294 |
| 2025-12-16T11:08:05+08:00 | 6.679621325361236 |
| 2025-12-16T11:10:24+08:00 | 6.684603886397609 |
| 2025-12-16T11:11:02+08:00 | 6.659691081215745 |
| 2025-12-16T12:05:52+08:00 | 6.662182361733931 |
| 2025-12-16T12:06:55+08:00 | 6.687842551071251 |
| 2025-12-16T12:07:33+08:00 | 6.682859990034878 |
| 2025-12-16T12:08:34+08:00 | 6.857249626307922 |
| 2025-12-16T13:45:25+08:00 | 6.874439461883408 |
| 2025-12-16T13:46:34+08:00 | 6.879422022919781 |
| 2025-12-16T13:47:09+08:00 | 6.9225211758844045 |
| 2025-12-16T13:47:59+08:00 | 7.071998006975585 |
| 2025-12-16T14:01:15+08:00 | 7.101395117090185 |
| 2025-12-16T14:03:27+08:00 | 7.568759342301943 |
| 2025-12-16T14:08:36+08:00 | 7.570752366716492 |
| 2025-12-16T14:08:57+08:00 | 7.720229197807673 |
| 2025-12-16T15:09:52+08:00 | 7.721225710014948 |
| 2025-12-16T15:10:15+08:00 | 7.723218734429497 |
| 2025-12-16T15:11:04+08:00 | 7.74813153961136 |
| 2025-12-16T15:48:28+08:00 | 7.972346786248131 |
| 2025-12-16T16:02:37+08:00 | 7.969855505729945 |
| 2025-12-16T16:03:21+08:00 | 7.970353761833582 |
| 2025-12-16T16:03:58+08:00 | 7.972346786248131 |
| 2025-12-16T16:07:24+08:00 | 7.9225211758844045 |
| 2025-12-16T17:01:27+08:00 | 7.97633283507723 |
| 2025-12-16T17:03:52+08:00 | 7.976831091180867 |
| 2025-12-16T17:04:18+08:00 | 8.116093672147484 |
| 2025-12-16T17:05:43+08:00 | 8.963129048330842 |
| 2025-12-16T17:30:50+08:00 | 10.208769307424015 |
| 2025-12-16T18:11:54+08:00 | 10.205032386646737 |
| 2025-12-16T18:12:14+08:00 | 10.220229197807674 |
| 2025-12-16T18:13:19+08:00 | 10.444444444444445 |
| 2025-12-16T18:16:56+08:00 | 10.455156950672645 |
| 2025-12-16T19:10:43+08:00 | 10.455406078724465 |
| 2025-12-16T19:10:50+08:00 | 10.458146487294469 |
| 2025-12-16T19:11:01+08:00 | 10.461883408071749 |
| 2025-12-16T19:12:01+08:00 | 10.312406576980568 |
| 2025-12-16T21:31:00+08:00 | 10.33931240657698 |
| 2025-12-16T21:31:10+08:00 | 10.346537120079722 |
| 2025-12-16T21:32:11+08:00 | 10.471101145989039 |
| 2025-12-16T22:17:01+08:00 | 10.51270553064275 |
| 2025-12-17T08:37:47+08:00 | 10.49451918285999 |
| 2025-12-17T08:37:51+08:00 | 10.562780269058296 |
| 2025-12-17T08:37:57+08:00 | 10.936472346786248 |
| 2025-12-17T08:38:03+08:00 | 10.937468858993523 |
| 2025-12-17T08:38:07+08:00 | 10.946188340807176 |
| 2025-12-17T08:38:10+08:00 | 10.953413054309916 |
| 2025-12-17T08:38:18+08:00 | 10.953413054309916 |
| 2025-12-17T09:08:10+08:00 | 10.980817140009965 |
| 2025-12-17T09:08:50+08:00 | 11.03637269556552 |
| 2025-12-17T09:09:40+08:00 | 11.039362232187344 |
| 2025-12-17T09:10:16+08:00 | 11.313403089187842 |
| 2025-12-17T09:18:09+08:00 | 11.46910812157449 |
| 2025-12-17T10:00:49+08:00 | 11.50373692077728 |
| 2025-12-17T10:03:26+08:00 | 11.528898854010961 |
| 2025-12-17T10:03:59+08:00 | 11.154210264075735 |
| 2025-12-17T10:05:20+08:00 | 11.32859990034878 |
| 2025-12-17T11:02:36+08:00 | 11.343547583457898 |
| 2025-12-17T11:03:49+08:00 | 10.866965620328848 |
| 2025-12-17T11:04:00+08:00 | 10.917040358744394 |
| 2025-12-17T11:05:41+08:00 | 10.991778774289985 |
| 2025-12-17T12:03:01+08:00 | 11.00722471350274 |
| 2025-12-17T12:03:18+08:00 | 11.012207274539113 |
| 2025-12-17T12:03:37+08:00 | 11.028649725959143 |
| 2025-12-17T12:08:03+08:00 | 11.103388141504734 |
| 2025-12-17T13:48:10+08:00 | 11.103637269556552 |
| 2025-12-17T13:48:45+08:00 | 11.125560538116591 |
| 2025-12-17T13:49:08+08:00 | 11.23368211260588 |
| 2025-12-17T14:00:56+08:00 | 11.23916292974589 |
| 2025-12-17T14:01:49+08:00 | 11.314897857498755 |
| 2025-12-17T14:03:57+08:00 | 11.331340308918785 |
| 2025-12-17T14:04:13+08:00 | 11.378176382660687 |
| 2025-12-17T14:05:24+08:00 | 12.773293472845042 |
| 2025-12-17T15:05:08+08:00 | 12.777030393622322 |
| 2025-12-17T15:05:30+08:00 | 12.935724962630792 |
| 2025-12-17T15:05:49+08:00 | 13.78276033881415 |
| 2025-12-17T15:06:54+08:00 | 13.79571499750872 |
| 2025-12-17T15:37:17+08:00 | 14.293971101145988 |
| 2025-12-17T16:04:46+08:00 | 14.248380667663179 |
| 2025-12-17T16:06:37+08:00 | 18.060039860488292 |
| 2025-12-17T17:08:41+08:00 | 19.626307922272048 |
| 2025-12-17T17:09:11+08:00 | 30.114598903836573 |
| 2025-12-17T17:33:06+08:00 | 32.356751370204286 |
| 2025-12-17T18:06:01+08:00 | 34.1751370204285 |
| 2025-12-17T18:06:31+08:00 | 39.53139013452915 |
| 2025-12-17T18:08:23+08:00 | 43.45092177379173 |
| 2025-12-17T20:22:48+08:00 | 44.29347284504235 |
| 2025-12-17T20:23:20+08:00 | 45.83806676631789 |
| 2025-12-17T20:24:23+08:00 | 45.94369706028899 |
| 2025-12-17T20:24:43+08:00 | 49.4813153961136 |
| 2025-12-17T22:16:17+08:00 | 51.62929745889387 |
| 2025-12-17T22:16:55+08:00 | 57.28450423517688 |
| 2025-12-17T22:18:02+08:00 | 57.92476332835077 |
| 2025-12-17T22:18:24+08:00 | 63.530144494270054 |
| 2025-12-18T08:18:23+08:00 | 65.15047334329846 |
| 2025-12-18T08:19:12+08:00 | 65.15047334329846 |
| 2025-12-18T08:19:34+08:00 | 69.40184354758345 |
| 2025-12-18T08:19:43+08:00 | 103.98081714000996 |
| 2025-12-18T09:09:20+08:00 | 104.52067762830094 |
| 2025-12-18T09:09:28+08:00 | 125.32286995515695 |
| 2025-12-18T09:09:49+08:00 | 125.82112605879422 |
| 2025-12-18T10:23:21+08:00 | 126.85849526656702 |
| 2025-12-18T10:23:26+08:00 | 144.79571499750872 |
| 2025-12-18T10:23:51+08:00 | 145.39013452914799 |
| 2025-12-18T14:10:48+08:00 | 151.29 |
| 時間 | 倍數 |
|---|
| 時間 | 券商 | 孖展資金 |
|---|
以實際認購倍數 188.74x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.505, 乙組 α=0.605) 為基準，對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數
| 申購手數 | 認購金額(HKD) | 實際期望中籤 | 預測期望中籤 | 偏差 |
|---|
诺比侃中籤預測矩陣行為申購檔位，列為不同認購倍數，數值為期望中籤手數，綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手；非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。
機制B
《第18項應用指引》下的靈活發售機制。最低初訂分配份額爲發售股份的10%，不設回補機制。最高初訂分配份額爲發售股份的60%（因《第18項應用指引》規定發售股份總數至少40%須分配予配售部分投資者，基石投資者除外）。發行人可根據發售結構、市場狀況及散戶投資者利益，自行釐定公開認購部分的初訂分配份額。
α 為發行人分配偏好係數，描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。
本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致：中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑，與其他網站可能使用的不同定義（如「申購人數中籤比例」）有本質區別。
期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數
例：某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本頁展示 诺比侃（02635）的中籤預測：基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導，公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數；其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準，再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準；隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權；臨近截止（進度約九成後）默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配，估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數，並結合分配手法係數 α（人均分配至比例分配）給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α，覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測，查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源：港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告；孖展數據（孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細）來自捷利交易寶（TradeGo），倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商，捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新；中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。
