曹操出行 02643
新股中籤預測
9.5203.64%( -0.360 )
11月13日 · 收市數據，非即時 · 香港交易所
基於相似IPO匹配的期望中籤預測
新股中籤預測| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展資金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
10.0億 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
4.7億 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
2.9億 |
| 4 |  耀才 |
2.3億 |
| 5 |  华盛 |
7200萬 |
| 6 |  长桥 |
5013萬 |
| 7 |  华泰 |
3339萬 |
| 8 |  盈立 |
2531萬 |
| 10 | 卓锐证券 | 356萬 |
| 11 |  艾德 |
338萬 |
| 12 |  盈宝 |
252萬 |
| 13 |  信诚 |
200萬 |
| 14 |  Funderstone |
79萬 |
| 15 |  TradeGo |
10萬 |
| 時間 | 倍數 |
|---|---|
| 2025-06-17T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-06-17T10:05:14+08:00 | 0.0004857250796049436 |
| 2025-06-17T10:05:37+08:00 | 0.0007016028927626963 |
| 2025-06-17T10:06:06+08:00 | 0.027686329537481784 |
| 2025-06-17T11:10:58+08:00 | 0.08165578282691996 |
| 2025-06-17T11:11:38+08:00 | 0.08446219439797074 |
| 2025-06-17T11:12:20+08:00 | 0.13406012197096442 |
| 2025-06-17T11:12:32+08:00 | 0.13945706729990826 |
| 2025-06-17T12:05:53+08:00 | 0.1429111123104323 |
| 2025-06-17T12:06:53+08:00 | 0.2616439095471963 |
| 2025-06-17T12:07:40+08:00 | 0.2599168870419343 |
| 2025-06-17T12:08:14+08:00 | 0.4977602676884883 |
| 2025-06-17T13:40:48+08:00 | 0.4979761455016461 |
| 2025-06-17T13:41:18+08:00 | 0.6814722866857359 |
| 2025-06-17T13:42:29+08:00 | 0.7030600680015111 |
| 2025-06-17T13:43:49+08:00 | 0.7052188461330887 |
| 2025-06-17T14:31:54+08:00 | 0.7075395326245345 |
| 2025-06-17T14:32:29+08:00 | 0.7142317448324248 |
| 2025-06-17T14:33:27+08:00 | 0.827567596740245 |
| 2025-06-17T14:34:05+08:00 | 0.8327486642560311 |
| 2025-06-17T14:35:57+08:00 | 0.8361487398132657 |
| 2025-06-17T15:11:27+08:00 | 0.8373360677856333 |
| 2025-06-17T15:11:58+08:00 | 0.8475902639106266 |
| 2025-06-17T15:12:34+08:00 | 0.8745749905553457 |
| 2025-06-17T16:05:34+08:00 | 0.8805116304171838 |
| 2025-06-17T16:05:52+08:00 | 0.8842355226941551 |
| 2025-06-17T16:06:12+08:00 | 0.8875816287981003 |
| 2025-06-17T16:06:47+08:00 | 0.9469480274164823 |
| 2025-06-17T17:03:39+08:00 | 0.9473258135895083 |
| 2025-06-17T17:03:56+08:00 | 0.9652976415348913 |
| 2025-06-17T17:07:45+08:00 | 1.0840304387716553 |
| 2025-06-17T17:15:41+08:00 | 1.4995952291003292 |
| 2025-06-17T18:07:05+08:00 | 1.5024556101246693 |
| 2025-06-17T18:07:41+08:00 | 1.5271196502779427 |
| 2025-06-17T18:08:05+08:00 | 1.6879486210804684 |
| 2025-06-17T18:08:34+08:00 | 2.1304981380538615 |
| 2025-06-17T18:10:12+08:00 | 2.1364887473689893 |
| 2025-06-17T20:40:03+08:00 | 2.163473474013708 |
| 2025-06-17T20:41:52+08:00 | 2.164660801986076 |
| 2025-06-17T20:43:29+08:00 | 2.2204112472340656 |
| 2025-06-17T20:44:02+08:00 | 2.5766096389443573 |
| 2025-06-17T20:56:47+08:00 | 2.6602622915429865 |
| 2025-06-17T22:40:40+08:00 | 2.684818392789681 |
| 2025-06-17T22:41:12+08:00 | 2.954665659236872 |
| 2025-06-18T09:13:48+08:00 | 2.9674024502131795 |
| 2025-06-18T09:14:25+08:00 | 3.328997787252415 |
| 2025-06-18T09:15:15+08:00 | 3.338496411031356 |
| 2025-06-18T09:17:12+08:00 | 3.3397377084570135 |
| 2025-06-18T09:17:36+08:00 | 3.3235468724701818 |
| 2025-06-18T10:00:55+08:00 | 3.3235468724701818 |
| 2025-06-18T10:02:31+08:00 | 3.3248421393491285 |
| 2025-06-18T10:04:18+08:00 | 3.871660640077716 |
| 2025-06-18T10:04:35+08:00 | 3.8729559069566624 |
| 2025-06-18T10:06:05+08:00 | 4.033353122132873 |
| 2025-06-18T10:07:56+08:00 | 4.22764315397485 |
| 2025-06-18T10:57:53+08:00 | 4.281612607264289 |
| 2025-06-18T11:06:19+08:00 | 4.317502293701764 |
| 2025-06-18T11:07:26+08:00 | 4.3876625829780345 |
| 2025-06-18T12:10:58+08:00 | 4.395973878784608 |
| 2025-06-18T12:11:32+08:00 | 4.406713799989206 |
| 2025-06-18T12:11:58+08:00 | 4.466080198607588 |
| 2025-06-18T12:12:53+08:00 | 4.5232338496411035 |
| 2025-06-18T13:41:42+08:00 | 4.523611635814129 |
| 2025-06-18T13:42:33+08:00 | 4.529710184035836 |
| 2025-06-18T13:43:07+08:00 | 4.535107129364779 |
| 2025-06-18T14:00:53+08:00 | 4.5401802579739865 |
| 2025-06-18T14:02:30+08:00 | 4.584165362404879 |
| 2025-06-18T14:05:27+08:00 | 4.6101246694370985 |
| 2025-06-18T14:05:53+08:00 | 4.632360084192348 |
| 2025-06-18T14:06:22+08:00 | 4.637757029521291 |
| 2025-06-18T15:17:44+08:00 | 4.64358573047655 |
| 2025-06-18T15:18:17+08:00 | 4.655351071293648 |
| 2025-06-18T15:18:40+08:00 | 4.736305251227805 |
| 2025-06-18T15:19:40+08:00 | 4.860434993793513 |
| 2025-06-18T16:06:25+08:00 | 4.87128285390469 |
| 2025-06-18T16:07:29+08:00 | 5.017000377786173 |
| 2025-06-18T16:08:07+08:00 | 5.018133736305251 |
| 2025-06-18T16:08:36+08:00 | 5.091154406605861 |
| 2025-06-18T17:05:14+08:00 | 5.093960818176912 |
| 2025-06-18T17:05:56+08:00 | 5.100275244211776 |
| 2025-06-18T17:06:18+08:00 | 5.213611096119596 |
| 2025-06-18T17:16:57+08:00 | 5.267580549409034 |
| 2025-06-18T17:32:07+08:00 | 5.321550002698473 |
| 2025-06-18T18:05:15+08:00 | 5.32279130012413 |
| 2025-06-18T18:06:47+08:00 | 5.362512817745157 |
| 2025-06-18T18:06:52+08:00 | 5.361703275945815 |
| 2025-06-18T18:07:17+08:00 | 5.356306330616871 |
| 2025-06-18T18:11:00+08:00 | 5.364239840250418 |
| 2025-06-18T20:14:07+08:00 | 5.365103351503049 |
| 2025-06-18T20:14:53+08:00 | 5.366560526741864 |
| 2025-06-18T20:15:22+08:00 | 5.452911652004965 |
| 2025-06-18T20:16:19+08:00 | 5.454800582870096 |
| 2025-06-18T20:23:25+08:00 | 6.018781369744724 |
| 2025-06-18T21:12:10+08:00 | 6.018187705758541 |
| 2025-06-18T21:12:36+08:00 | 6.028981596416428 |
| 2025-06-18T22:08:58+08:00 | 6.0286038102434025 |
| 2025-06-18T22:09:18+08:00 | 6.055588536888122 |
| 2025-06-19T07:23:43+08:00 | 6.073398456473636 |
| 2025-06-19T07:23:47+08:00 | 6.075179448432188 |
| 2025-06-19T07:23:51+08:00 | 6.077554104376922 |
| 2025-06-19T07:25:51+08:00 | 6.066760213719035 |
| 2025-06-19T07:25:56+08:00 | 6.109935776350586 |
| 2025-06-19T07:27:22+08:00 | 6.109935776350586 |
| 2025-06-19T09:25:04+08:00 | 6.110583409790059 |
| 2025-06-19T09:29:55+08:00 | 6.213125371039991 |
| 2025-06-19T09:30:20+08:00 | 6.230071779372875 |
| 2025-06-19T09:31:12+08:00 | 6.229747962653138 |
| 2025-06-19T09:31:35+08:00 | 6.2135571266663066 |
| 2025-06-19T10:06:25+08:00 | 6.2157698742511736 |
| 2025-06-19T10:07:24+08:00 | 6.20751254789789 |
| 2025-06-19T10:07:27+08:00 | 6.289438177991257 |
| 2025-06-19T10:07:44+08:00 | 6.230071779372875 |
| 2025-06-19T11:05:34+08:00 | 6.231421015705111 |
| 2025-06-19T11:06:26+08:00 | 6.355550758270819 |
| 2025-06-19T11:07:05+08:00 | 6.355658697177398 |
| 2025-06-19T11:08:54+08:00 | 6.3723892276971235 |
| 2025-06-19T12:12:43+08:00 | 6.373738464029359 |
| 2025-06-19T12:13:32+08:00 | 6.387284796805008 |
| 2025-06-19T12:13:50+08:00 | 6.457445086081278 |
| 2025-06-19T12:14:35+08:00 | 6.457984780614172 |
| 2025-06-19T13:43:19+08:00 | 6.470991418856927 |
| 2025-06-19T13:44:16+08:00 | 6.471099357763506 |
| 2025-06-19T13:44:41+08:00 | 6.460305467105618 |
| 2025-06-19T14:04:00+08:00 | 6.400021587781316 |
| 2025-06-19T14:05:59+08:00 | 6.395326245345134 |
| 2025-06-19T14:06:35+08:00 | 6.399589832155001 |
| 2025-06-19T15:10:43+08:00 | 6.334826488207675 |
| 2025-06-19T15:11:30+08:00 | 6.329753359598468 |
| 2025-06-19T16:06:16+08:00 | 6.316854660262291 |
| 2025-06-19T16:06:35+08:00 | 6.354633277564898 |
| 2025-06-19T17:07:57+08:00 | 6.59749581736737 |
| 2025-06-19T17:20:00+08:00 | 8.540396135787145 |
| 2025-06-19T18:04:39+08:00 | 8.37956716498462 |
| 2025-06-19T18:08:04+08:00 | 8.843704463273786 |
| 2025-06-19T18:08:28+08:00 | 8.962437260510551 |
| 2025-06-19T18:10:09+08:00 | 8.964488099735549 |
| 2025-06-19T20:08:03+08:00 | 9.142587295590696 |
| 2025-06-19T20:09:09+08:00 | 9.299098710130066 |
| 2025-06-19T20:10:11+08:00 | 9.871174914998111 |
| 2025-06-19T21:18:33+08:00 | 9.935938258945438 |
| 2025-06-19T22:26:28+08:00 | 10.022289384208538 |
| 2025-06-20T08:43:26+08:00 | 10.324518322629391 |
| 2025-06-20T08:43:29+08:00 | 10.51880835447137 |
| 2025-06-20T08:43:32+08:00 | 10.513411409142426 |
| 2025-06-20T08:43:35+08:00 | 10.534999190458201 |
| 2025-06-20T08:43:38+08:00 | 10.761670894273841 |
| 2025-06-20T08:48:37+08:00 | 10.761670894273841 |
| 2025-06-20T09:55:50+08:00 | 11.107075395326245 |
| 2025-06-20T10:07:59+08:00 | 11.581844675913432 |
| 2025-06-20T10:08:56+08:00 | 11.689783582492309 |
| 2025-06-20T10:09:28+08:00 | 11.70899670786335 |
| 時間 | 倍數 |
|---|
| 時間 | 券商 | 孖展資金 |
|---|
以實際認購倍數 21.14x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.612, 乙組 α=0.712) 為基準，對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數
| 申購手數 | 認購金額(HKD) | 實際期望中籤 | 預測期望中籤 | 偏差 |
|---|
曹操出行中籤預測矩陣行為申購檔位，列為不同認購倍數，數值為期望中籤手數，綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手；非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。
機制A(舊)
2025年8月4日前適用的機制A。初訂分配份額爲發售股份的10%，回補機制觸發點爲15倍/50倍/100倍，分別回補至30%/40%/50%。
α 為發行人分配偏好係數，描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。
本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致：中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑，與其他網站可能使用的不同定義（如「申購人數中籤比例」）有本質區別。
期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數
例：某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本頁展示 曹操出行（02643）的中籤預測：基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導，公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數；其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準，再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準；隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權；臨近截止（進度約九成後）默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配，估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數，並結合分配手法係數 α（人均分配至比例分配）給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α，覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測，查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源：港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告；孖展數據（孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細）來自捷利交易寶（TradeGo），倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商，捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新；中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。
