孖展動態 孖展倍數4103.74x 孖展資金1168.6億 捷利預測倍數5252.79x
排名 券商 孖展資金
1 富途证券富途 767.1億
2 辉立证券辉立 150.0億
3 老虎国际老虎 147.9億
4 华泰国际华泰 44.6億
5 华盛证券华盛 18.0億
6 盈立证券盈立 12.1億
7 信诚证券信诚 10.0億
8 致富证券致富 7.6億
9 长桥证券长桥 6.7億
孖展倍數
時間倍數
2026-02-27T06:00:00+08:000
2026-02-27T10:22:19+08:000.2847612359550562
2026-02-27T10:22:43+08:000.5063202247191011
2026-02-27T10:23:08+08:001.5245786516853932
2026-02-27T11:15:47+08:001.7212078651685394
2026-02-27T11:16:46+08:001.791432584269663
2026-02-27T11:16:55+08:003.044943820224719
2026-02-27T11:17:04+08:003.990870786516854
2026-02-27T11:17:25+08:0015.542837078651685
2026-02-27T12:05:54+08:0015.597612359550562
2026-02-27T12:06:43+08:0015.770716292134832
2026-02-27T12:07:17+08:0019.001404494382022
2026-02-27T12:07:34+08:0019.732092696629213
2026-02-27T12:07:50+08:0028.194171348314608
2026-02-27T13:43:51+08:0028.2563202247191
2026-02-27T13:44:18+08:0028.312851123595507
2026-02-27T13:45:18+08:0031.202598314606742
2026-02-27T13:45:35+08:0032.11797752808989
2026-02-27T13:46:19+08:0041.49297752808989
2026-02-27T13:46:30+08:0041.598314606741575
2026-02-27T14:31:30+08:0042.651685393258425
2026-02-27T14:31:47+08:0042.715941011235955
2026-02-27T14:32:23+08:0042.76615168539326
2026-02-27T14:32:42+08:0044.960323033707866
2026-02-27T14:32:58+08:0045.86446629213483
2026-02-27T14:33:20+08:0053.0625
2026-02-27T15:23:10+08:0053.12851123595506
2026-02-27T15:23:48+08:0053.54950842696629
2026-02-27T15:24:17+08:0058.747191011235955
2026-02-27T15:24:21+08:0058.762289325842694
2026-02-27T15:24:51+08:0068.87464887640449
2026-02-27T16:07:55+08:0068.96875
2026-02-27T16:08:19+08:0069.44452247191012
2026-02-27T16:08:43+08:0070.70751404494382
2026-02-27T16:09:14+08:0083.4181882022472
2026-02-27T17:19:30+08:0084.12043539325843
2026-02-27T17:19:45+08:0084.20189606741573
2026-02-27T17:20:10+08:0085.5252808988764
2026-02-27T17:20:34+08:0086.51158707865169
2026-02-27T17:20:54+08:0086.50526685393258
2026-02-27T17:21:19+08:0097.1443117977528
2026-02-27T17:21:37+08:00106.62464887640449
2026-02-27T18:01:49+08:00109.84058988764045
2026-02-27T18:02:12+08:00110.07373595505618
2026-02-27T18:05:14+08:00116.25351123595506
2026-02-27T18:05:37+08:00117.80793539325843
2026-02-27T18:05:53+08:00117.85884831460675
2026-02-27T18:07:02+08:00125.40800561797752
2026-02-27T21:57:28+08:00125.44311797752809
2026-02-27T21:58:09+08:00125.63623595505618
2026-02-27T21:58:40+08:00125.78370786516854
2026-02-27T21:59:00+08:00125.9880617977528
2026-02-27T22:00:49+08:00130.0635533707865
2026-02-27T22:01:43+08:00132.25421348314606
2026-02-27T22:03:02+08:00140.61095505617976
2026-02-27T22:03:20+08:00148.05477528089887
2026-02-27T22:03:51+08:00149.42626404494382
2026-02-27T22:03:56+08:00149.63202247191012
2026-02-27T22:06:53+08:00155.67134831460675
2026-02-28T09:49:42+08:00158.50702247191012
2026-02-28T09:49:59+08:00158.50702247191012
2026-02-28T09:50:18+08:00164.15273876404495
2026-02-28T09:50:27+08:00189.78476123595505
2026-02-28T09:50:35+08:00192.22787921348313
2026-02-28T09:50:52+08:00192.8181179775281
2026-02-28T09:51:10+08:00193.7191011235955
2026-02-28T09:51:18+08:00194.65308988764045
2026-02-28T09:51:27+08:00197.84831460674158
2026-02-28T09:51:44+08:00202.06179775280899
2026-02-28T10:10:30+08:00202.12710674157304
2026-02-28T10:10:38+08:00202.14290730337078
2026-02-28T10:10:56+08:00203.9754213483146
2026-02-28T10:11:04+08:00209.87429775280899
2026-02-28T11:07:14+08:00209.90554775280899
2026-02-28T11:07:36+08:00210.0807584269663
2026-02-28T11:07:55+08:00212.05442415730337
2026-02-28T11:08:32+08:00218.65554775280899
2026-02-28T14:20:53+08:00219.35779494382024
2026-02-28T14:21:33+08:00219.47366573033707
2026-02-28T14:22:45+08:00219.91046348314606
2026-02-28T14:24:43+08:00223.69803370786516
2026-02-28T14:26:13+08:00233.77528089887642
2026-02-28T14:26:31+08:00238.23455056179776
2026-02-28T18:04:54+08:00238.3370786516854
2026-02-28T18:06:15+08:00238.80547752808988
2026-02-28T18:07:03+08:00243.17064606741573
2026-02-28T18:07:43+08:00243.29459269662922
2026-02-28T18:11:24+08:00253.93363764044943
2026-02-28T18:11:42+08:00256.2510533707865
2026-02-28T20:37:48+08:00256.250702247191
2026-02-28T20:38:42+08:00256.4655898876405
2026-02-28T20:40:08+08:00256.73384831460675
2026-02-28T20:41:15+08:00257.6818820224719
2026-02-28T20:41:37+08:00259.12148876404495
2026-02-28T22:02:44+08:00259.4497893258427
2026-02-28T22:03:01+08:00259.8957162921348
2026-02-28T22:03:32+08:00262.283356741573
2026-02-28T22:03:51+08:00263.6945224719101
2026-02-28T22:07:25+08:00266.4683988764045
2026-03-01T08:53:31+08:00267.1113061797753
2026-03-01T08:53:48+08:00267.8314606741573
2026-03-01T08:54:27+08:00282.6488764044944
2026-03-01T09:01:39+08:00282.66081460674155
2026-03-01T09:02:42+08:00282.966643258427
2026-03-01T09:04:03+08:00283.0761938202247
2026-03-01T09:04:40+08:00283.7043539325843
2026-03-01T09:05:39+08:00287.67205056179773
2026-03-01T12:01:01+08:00287.55969101123594
2026-03-01T12:01:16+08:00289.40976123595505
2026-03-01T12:03:00+08:00289.4406601123595
2026-03-01T12:03:04+08:00289.4459269662921
2026-03-01T12:03:08+08:00289.4866573033708
2026-03-01T12:16:54+08:00289.55969101123594
2026-03-01T12:17:05+08:00289.69206460674155
2026-03-01T12:17:25+08:00289.80898876404495
2026-03-01T12:17:57+08:00290.1004213483146
2026-03-01T12:19:39+08:00294.4543539325843
2026-03-01T12:19:43+08:00297.1931179775281
2026-03-01T12:19:48+08:00300.1425561797753
2026-03-01T18:07:07+08:00300.23455056179773
2026-03-01T18:07:13+08:00301.4448735955056
2026-03-01T18:07:17+08:00302.6457162921348
2026-03-01T18:07:21+08:00302.77879213483146
2026-03-01T18:07:25+08:00304.4947331460674
2026-03-01T18:07:28+08:00305.64080056179773
2026-03-01T18:07:49+08:00305.6365870786517
2026-03-01T18:07:55+08:00305.45786516853934
2026-03-01T18:07:59+08:00305.54740168539325
2026-03-01T18:08:03+08:00305.5761938202247
2026-03-01T18:08:07+08:00305.6323735955056
2026-03-01T18:11:45+08:00305.6769662921348
2026-03-01T18:11:50+08:00305.6980337078652
2026-03-01T18:11:54+08:00305.74648876404495
2026-03-01T18:11:58+08:00305.74754213483146
2026-03-01T18:12:02+08:00305.9178370786517
2026-03-01T18:12:07+08:00305.9185393258427
2026-03-01T18:12:27+08:00305.93398876404495
2026-03-01T18:12:31+08:00305.94733146067415
2026-03-01T18:12:35+08:00305.96594101123594
2026-03-01T18:12:40+08:00305.99543539325845
2026-03-01T18:12:44+08:00306.0066713483146
2026-03-01T18:12:48+08:00306.0238764044944
2026-03-01T18:17:13+08:00309.9564606741573
2026-03-01T18:17:17+08:00313.2219101123595
2026-03-01T18:17:21+08:00317.8918539325843
2026-03-01T18:17:24+08:00321.85955056179773
2026-03-01T18:17:28+08:00327.1615168539326
2026-03-01T18:17:31+08:00332.42837078651684
2026-03-01T20:17:11+08:00333.5842696629214
2026-03-01T20:17:28+08:00334.50877808988764
2026-03-01T20:18:07+08:00339.4947331460674
2026-03-01T20:18:16+08:00342.05793539325845
2026-03-01T20:18:55+08:00342.08497191011236
2026-03-01T20:19:12+08:00342.1070926966292
2026-03-01T20:20:05+08:00342.12640449438203
2026-03-01T22:37:47+08:00345.5323033707865
2026-03-01T22:37:58+08:00350.6938202247191
2026-03-01T22:38:53+08:00350.7742275280899
2026-03-01T22:40:06+08:00352.78370786516854
2026-03-01T22:40:27+08:00355.3700842696629
2026-03-01T22:41:52+08:00355.377106741573
2026-03-02T08:41:44+08:00355.37851123595505
2026-03-02T08:43:14+08:00381.747893258427
2026-03-02T08:44:21+08:00382.1074438202247
2026-03-02T08:44:25+08:00387.4122191011236
2026-03-02T08:44:48+08:00387.4122191011236
2026-03-02T09:04:09+08:00387.5477528089888
2026-03-02T09:05:15+08:00388.00280898876406
2026-03-02T09:05:50+08:00390.9940308988764
2026-03-02T09:06:18+08:00400.96594101123594
2026-03-02T09:08:58+08:00412.29213483146066
2026-03-02T09:29:38+08:00417.20786516853934
2026-03-02T10:16:25+08:00425.1748595505618
2026-03-02T10:16:45+08:00457.93469101123594
2026-03-02T10:17:40+08:00458.54143258426967
2026-03-02T10:18:43+08:00458.7636938202247
2026-03-02T11:08:27+08:00462.61306179775283
2026-03-02T11:08:55+08:00463.5719803370786
2026-03-02T11:09:13+08:00463.57233146067415
2026-03-02T11:09:44+08:00491.6622191011236
2026-03-02T11:10:36+08:00502.968047752809
2026-03-02T11:56:51+08:00506.30372191011236
2026-03-02T12:05:03+08:00507.84726123595505
2026-03-02T12:05:30+08:00508.2373595505618
2026-03-02T12:06:23+08:00512.4002808988764
2026-03-02T12:06:56+08:00514.4691011235955
2026-03-02T12:07:22+08:00539.3286516853933
2026-03-02T13:47:46+08:00540.0983146067416
2026-03-02T13:48:13+08:00540.3876404494382
2026-03-02T13:48:56+08:00541.1260533707865
2026-03-02T13:49:16+08:00543.9761235955057
2026-03-02T13:49:45+08:00563.2176966292135
2026-03-02T13:50:24+08:00565.3244382022472
2026-03-02T14:03:36+08:00565.7408707865169
2026-03-02T14:04:08+08:00566.593047752809
2026-03-02T14:05:03+08:00573.2988061797753
2026-03-02T14:05:28+08:00592.8212780898876
2026-03-02T14:05:51+08:00593.2018960674158
2026-03-02T14:11:14+08:00602.6411516853933
2026-03-02T14:42:51+08:00612.1214887640449
2026-03-02T15:10:27+08:00613.443820224719
2026-03-02T15:11:04+08:00619.2289325842696
2026-03-02T15:11:26+08:00637.4171348314607
2026-03-02T15:12:02+08:00640.0733848314607
2026-03-02T15:12:35+08:00640.379213483146
2026-03-02T16:15:00+08:00641.9146769662922
2026-03-02T16:16:30+08:00642.4375
2026-03-02T16:16:44+08:00643.2626404494382
2026-03-02T16:17:48+08:00649.4933286516854
2026-03-02T16:18:25+08:00672.0003511235955
2026-03-02T17:03:57+08:00672.1422050561798
2026-03-02T17:04:19+08:00672.6537921348314
2026-03-02T17:04:34+08:00673.3209269662922
2026-03-02T17:05:03+08:00676.5316011235955
2026-03-02T17:05:31+08:00691.8054775280899
2026-03-02T17:55:12+08:00696.7212078651686
2026-03-02T17:55:24+08:00743.4206460674158
2026-03-02T18:12:05+08:00743.3567415730337
2026-03-02T18:12:55+08:00743.5695224719101
2026-03-02T18:13:16+08:00748.658356741573
2026-03-02T18:13:22+08:00749.8412921348314
2026-03-02T18:14:01+08:00768.1699438202247
2026-03-02T18:19:19+08:00775.4241573033707
2026-03-02T20:20:46+08:00775.5684691011236
2026-03-02T20:21:32+08:00775.9329353932584
2026-03-02T20:22:14+08:00776.5635533707865
2026-03-02T20:22:54+08:00783.8283005617977
2026-03-02T20:24:07+08:00796.8549859550562
2026-03-02T20:24:25+08:00811.0754915730337
2026-03-02T22:04:44+08:00811.5832162921348
2026-03-02T22:05:22+08:00812.1369382022472
2026-03-02T22:06:01+08:00820.3226825842696
2026-03-02T22:07:02+08:00836.0530196629213
2026-03-02T22:07:53+08:00854.1709971910112
2026-03-03T08:38:20+08:00855.7545646067416
2026-03-03T08:39:03+08:00865.7945926966293
2026-03-03T08:39:07+08:00884.5073735955057
2026-03-03T08:40:02+08:001016.2840589887641
2026-03-03T08:41:46+08:001016.2840589887641
2026-03-03T09:00:20+08:001020.1825842696629
2026-03-03T09:01:30+08:001025.1004213483145
2026-03-03T09:04:42+08:001042.456109550562
2026-03-03T09:05:46+08:001042.4571629213483
2026-03-03T09:06:14+08:001047.0365168539327
2026-03-03T09:06:36+08:001080.4283707865168
2026-03-03T09:23:38+08:001094.4733146067415
2026-03-03T10:01:37+08:001096.1924157303372
2026-03-03T10:02:40+08:001097.938904494382
2026-03-03T10:04:36+08:001098.4571629213483
2026-03-03T10:05:35+08:001113.2675561797753
2026-03-03T10:06:48+08:001177.8391853932585
2026-03-03T11:10:18+08:001179.0754915730338
2026-03-03T11:10:39+08:001192.8641151685392
2026-03-03T11:11:11+08:001252.8009129213483
2026-03-03T11:11:52+08:001254.3570926966293
2026-03-03T11:12:05+08:001256.3240870786517
2026-03-03T12:02:22+08:001256.993679775281
2026-03-03T12:02:45+08:001257.7198033707866
2026-03-03T12:03:10+08:001261.2310393258426
2026-03-03T12:04:07+08:001272.3525280898875
2026-03-03T12:04:38+08:001273.183988764045
2026-03-03T12:05:37+08:001323.5
2026-03-03T13:47:13+08:001323.9827949438202
2026-03-03T13:47:37+08:001332.745786516854
2026-03-03T13:48:05+08:001367.1558988764045
2026-03-03T13:49:13+08:001367.594452247191
2026-03-03T13:49:57+08:001368.5196629213483
2026-03-03T13:50:30+08:001372.0308988764045
2026-03-03T14:01:03+08:001372.8760533707866
2026-03-03T14:01:56+08:001373.9599719101125
2026-03-03T14:04:21+08:001393.6267556179776
2026-03-03T14:05:37+08:001394.342345505618
2026-03-03T14:05:59+08:001406.310393258427
2026-03-03T14:06:27+08:001452.3426966292134
2026-03-03T15:11:41+08:001453.1127106741574
2026-03-03T15:12:08+08:001454.6776685393259
2026-03-03T15:12:27+08:001455.4087078651685
2026-03-03T15:14:22+08:001463.877808988764
2026-03-03T15:14:33+08:001510.436797752809
2026-03-03T16:02:07+08:001511.4448735955057
2026-03-03T16:04:13+08:001512.157654494382
2026-03-03T16:04:47+08:001526.4638342696628
2026-03-03T16:06:09+08:001551.0424859550562
2026-03-03T16:07:28+08:001599.1464185393259
2026-03-03T16:31:17+08:001609.6801264044943
2026-03-03T17:13:19+08:001610.1281601123596
2026-03-03T17:13:36+08:001610.8240870786517
2026-03-03T17:14:28+08:001622.325140449438
2026-03-03T17:15:26+08:001679.9796348314608
2026-03-03T17:16:08+08:001682.7886235955057
2026-03-03T17:47:41+08:001854.8391853932585
2026-03-03T18:00:18+08:001855.4066011235955
2026-03-03T18:06:16+08:001876.881320224719
2026-03-03T18:06:49+08:001877.8567415730338
2026-03-03T18:07:22+08:001888.5526685393259
2026-03-03T18:07:55+08:001944.9080056179776
2026-03-03T20:14:14+08:001945.5800561797753
2026-03-03T20:16:11+08:001945.8697331460673
2026-03-03T20:19:48+08:001970.7966994382023
2026-03-03T20:20:20+08:002009.9469803370787
2026-03-03T20:20:38+08:002067.215238764045
2026-03-03T22:07:46+08:002067.47577247191
2026-03-03T22:08:23+08:002099.3349719101125
2026-03-03T22:10:16+08:002175.809691011236
2026-03-03T22:10:36+08:002264.5386235955057
2026-03-04T08:46:46+08:002290.3686797752807
2026-03-04T08:46:50+08:002391.143609550562
2026-03-04T08:48:09+08:002391.143609550562
2026-03-04T08:48:49+08:002999.14922752809
2026-03-04T09:08:38+08:003003.538974719101
2026-03-04T09:10:32+08:003038.6987359550562
2026-03-04T09:11:19+08:003249.056882022472
2026-03-04T09:14:19+08:003312.977176966292
2026-03-04T09:34:43+08:003320.701896067416
2026-03-04T10:14:43+08:003348.897823033708
2026-03-04T10:15:10+08:003788.961025280899
2026-03-04T11:03:03+08:004087.4160814606744
2026-03-04T22:05:10+08:004103.74
捷利預測倍數
時間倍數
券商孖展資金走勢
時間券商孖展資金
預測模型 一手期望中籤手數— 期望中籤1手所需手數—
倍數推導
近期首日表現
+4.6%
→
參與人數
18,215
→
人均手數
67.9
→
認購倍數
304x
304x = 18,215 × 67.9 ÷ 4,068 孖展加權 100% → 5252.8x
1x44694.0x
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.58
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.69
此模型不適用分配手法調節

實際 vs 預測 對比

以實際認購倍數 5297.23x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.585, 乙組 α=0.685) 為基準,對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數

申購手數 認購金額(HKD) 實際期望中籤 預測期望中籤 偏差

標誌优乐赛共享中籤預測矩陣

行為申購檔位,列為不同認購倍數,數值為期望中籤手數,綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手;非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。

發售機制說明

機制B

《第18項應用指引》下的靈活發售機制。最低初訂分配份額爲發售股份的10%,不設回補機制。最高初訂分配份額爲發售股份的60%(因《第18項應用指引》規定發售股份總數至少40%須分配予配售部分投資者,基石投資者除外)。發行人可根據發售結構、市場狀況及散戶投資者利益,自行釐定公開認購部分的初訂分配份額。

分配手法係數 α

α 為發行人分配偏好係數,描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——無論申購多少手,每位中籤者獲配股數相同。對散戶(小單申購)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——獲配股數與申購手數成正比。對大額申購更有利。
  • 歷史實際 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3–0.9,乙組 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差異較大,反映發行人各自的分配策略。
中籤率定義

本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致:中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑,與其他網站可能使用的不同定義(如「申購人數中籤比例」)有本質區別。

期望中籤手數

期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數

例:某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

關於本頁

本頁展示 优乐赛共享(02649)的中籤預測:基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導,公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數;其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準,再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準;隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權;臨近截止(進度約九成後)默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配,估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數,並結合分配手法係數 α(人均分配至比例分配)給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α,覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測,查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源:港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告;孖展數據(孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細)來自捷利交易寶(TradeGo),倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商,捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新;中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中籤率預測、中籤畫像與入通分析