果下科技 02655
新股中籤預測
10.2600.49%( +0.050 )
11月13日 · 收市數據，非即時 · 香港交易所
基於相似IPO匹配的期望中籤預測
新股中籤預測| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展資金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
444.5億 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
292.0億 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
94.6億 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
39.5億 |
| 5 |  华盛 |
16.5億 |
| 6 | 卓锐证券 | 5.8億 |
| 8 |  信诚 |
5.0億 |
| 9 |  长桥 |
3.8億 |
| 10 |  盈立 |
3.3億 |
| 11 |  TradeGo |
3.1億 |
| 12 |  盈宝 |
9000萬 |
| 13 |  Funderstone |
6279萬 |
| 14 |  艾德 |
4005萬 |
| 時間 | 倍數 |
|---|---|
| 2025-12-08T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-12-08T10:19:37+08:00 | 0.008671369782480894 |
| 2025-12-08T10:20:04+08:00 | 0.2588183421516755 |
| 2025-12-08T10:20:13+08:00 | 0.32598471487360375 |
| 2025-12-08T10:20:19+08:00 | 0.5317460317460317 |
| 2025-12-08T10:20:22+08:00 | 0.6052322163433275 |
| 2025-12-08T11:11:01+08:00 | 0.6527042915931804 |
| 2025-12-08T11:11:04+08:00 | 0.9343033509700176 |
| 2025-12-08T11:11:07+08:00 | 1.010435038212816 |
| 2025-12-08T11:11:10+08:00 | 2.127425044091711 |
| 2025-12-08T12:03:22+08:00 | 2.2009112286890065 |
| 2025-12-08T12:03:51+08:00 | 2.2088477366255144 |
| 2025-12-08T12:03:56+08:00 | 2.6328630217519104 |
| 2025-12-08T12:03:59+08:00 | 3.2494121105232217 |
| 2025-12-08T13:48:54+08:00 | 4.704438565549677 |
| 2025-12-08T13:48:58+08:00 | 4.741769547325103 |
| 2025-12-08T13:49:04+08:00 | 4.523221634332746 |
| 2025-12-08T13:49:07+08:00 | 4.659905937683716 |
| 2025-12-08T13:49:10+08:00 | 4.76278659611993 |
| 2025-12-08T14:01:03+08:00 | 4.750293944738389 |
| 2025-12-08T14:01:34+08:00 | 6.412992357436802 |
| 2025-12-08T15:22:15+08:00 | 6.4641387419165195 |
| 2025-12-08T15:22:17+08:00 | 6.513521457965902 |
| 2025-12-08T15:22:34+08:00 | 6.602145796590241 |
| 2025-12-08T15:22:41+08:00 | 6.701058201058201 |
| 2025-12-08T15:23:03+08:00 | 7.053791887125221 |
| 2025-12-08T15:23:05+08:00 | 7.23015873015873 |
| 2025-12-08T15:23:13+08:00 | 7.296590241034686 |
| 2025-12-08T16:12:01+08:00 | 7.364491475602587 |
| 2025-12-08T16:12:04+08:00 | 7.500440917107584 |
| 2025-12-08T16:12:06+08:00 | 7.571134626690182 |
| 2025-12-08T16:12:09+08:00 | 8.688124632569076 |
| 2025-12-08T16:13:00+08:00 | 8.98206937095826 |
| 2025-12-08T17:29:04+08:00 | 9.129041740152852 |
| 2025-12-08T17:29:18+08:00 | 9.175338036449148 |
| 2025-12-08T17:29:21+08:00 | 13.46222810111699 |
| 2025-12-08T17:29:24+08:00 | 14.065696649029983 |
| 2025-12-08T17:29:27+08:00 | 18.88639035861258 |
| 2025-12-08T18:07:25+08:00 | 19.76822457378013 |
| 2025-12-08T18:07:30+08:00 | 19.77278071722516 |
| 2025-12-08T18:07:35+08:00 | 20.234567901234566 |
| 2025-12-08T18:07:40+08:00 | 21.11463844797178 |
| 2025-12-08T18:07:45+08:00 | 26.185185185185187 |
| 2025-12-08T18:08:33+08:00 | 27.27087007642563 |
| 2025-12-08T21:26:08+08:00 | 27.594209288653733 |
| 2025-12-08T21:26:13+08:00 | 27.598471487360378 |
| 2025-12-08T21:26:19+08:00 | 28.03938859494415 |
| 2025-12-08T21:26:24+08:00 | 28.52910052910053 |
| 2025-12-08T21:26:29+08:00 | 28.82995296884186 |
| 2025-12-08T21:26:34+08:00 | 30.31437389770723 |
| 2025-12-08T21:26:41+08:00 | 30.248236331569665 |
| 2025-12-08T21:26:46+08:00 | 30.762345679012345 |
| 2025-12-08T21:26:51+08:00 | 33.59891240446796 |
| 2025-12-08T21:26:57+08:00 | 33.613462669018226 |
| 2025-12-08T21:27:02+08:00 | 34.428718400940625 |
| 2025-12-08T21:27:11+08:00 | 36.133597883597886 |
| 2025-12-08T22:04:11+08:00 | 37.24294532627866 |
| 2025-12-08T22:04:15+08:00 | 37.380805408583186 |
| 2025-12-09T08:36:42+08:00 | 37.32010582010582 |
| 2025-12-09T08:36:45+08:00 | 39.41813639035861 |
| 2025-12-09T08:38:02+08:00 | 38.96649029982363 |
| 2025-12-09T08:38:05+08:00 | 38.85670194003527 |
| 2025-12-09T08:38:26+08:00 | 40.532186948853614 |
| 2025-12-09T08:38:30+08:00 | 46.719723691945916 |
| 2025-12-09T08:39:04+08:00 | 46.719723691945916 |
| 2025-12-09T09:03:07+08:00 | 47.16710758377425 |
| 2025-12-09T09:03:24+08:00 | 47.14564961787184 |
| 2025-12-09T09:03:27+08:00 | 47.2473544973545 |
| 2025-12-09T09:24:08+08:00 | 49.055114638447975 |
| 2025-12-09T09:44:44+08:00 | 49.789976484420926 |
| 2025-12-09T10:08:16+08:00 | 49.828630217519105 |
| 2025-12-09T10:08:36+08:00 | 50.509406231628454 |
| 2025-12-09T10:08:46+08:00 | 54.13962375073486 |
| 2025-12-09T10:08:56+08:00 | 54.2120811287478 |
| 2025-12-09T10:09:41+08:00 | 56.834362139917694 |
| 2025-12-09T11:00:36+08:00 | 57.40432098765432 |
| 2025-12-09T11:05:43+08:00 | 57.62477954144621 |
| 2025-12-09T11:05:53+08:00 | 57.931804820693706 |
| 2025-12-09T11:06:07+08:00 | 60.753674309229865 |
| 2025-12-09T12:06:17+08:00 | 60.9591416813639 |
| 2025-12-09T12:06:28+08:00 | 61.06878306878307 |
| 2025-12-09T12:06:30+08:00 | 61.50396825396825 |
| 2025-12-09T12:06:39+08:00 | 64.38462669018224 |
| 2025-12-09T13:44:43+08:00 | 64.51234567901234 |
| 2025-12-09T13:44:54+08:00 | 64.43048206937095 |
| 2025-12-09T13:45:07+08:00 | 65.5327748383304 |
| 2025-12-09T13:45:32+08:00 | 65.58054085831864 |
| 2025-12-09T14:00:35+08:00 | 65.62257495590829 |
| 2025-12-09T14:01:04+08:00 | 66.34847148736037 |
| 2025-12-09T14:06:17+08:00 | 66.40079365079364 |
| 2025-12-09T14:06:23+08:00 | 66.48030570252793 |
| 2025-12-09T14:06:34+08:00 | 69.41975308641975 |
| 2025-12-09T15:01:14+08:00 | 69.4620811287478 |
| 2025-12-09T15:04:00+08:00 | 69.3775720164609 |
| 2025-12-09T15:04:08+08:00 | 69.84141681363903 |
| 2025-12-09T15:06:44+08:00 | 73.0160199882422 |
| 2025-12-09T16:14:10+08:00 | 73.12360376249265 |
| 2025-12-09T16:14:33+08:00 | 74.53982951205174 |
| 2025-12-09T16:14:48+08:00 | 78.62566137566138 |
| 2025-12-09T16:14:59+08:00 | 78.72751322751323 |
| 2025-12-09T16:41:54+08:00 | 79.90329218106996 |
| 2025-12-09T17:02:07+08:00 | 79.99559082892416 |
| 2025-12-09T17:03:24+08:00 | 82.06966490299824 |
| 2025-12-09T17:03:36+08:00 | 82.34611992945327 |
| 2025-12-09T17:36:40+08:00 | 89.98868312757202 |
| 2025-12-09T17:37:24+08:00 | 102.77527924750147 |
| 2025-12-09T18:06:17+08:00 | 103.8040858318636 |
| 2025-12-09T18:06:39+08:00 | 103.93547912992358 |
| 2025-12-09T18:07:00+08:00 | 105.18841857730746 |
| 2025-12-09T18:07:05+08:00 | 105.78880070546737 |
| 2025-12-09T18:07:21+08:00 | 113.4754556143445 |
| 2025-12-09T18:08:27+08:00 | 115.47707231040565 |
| 2025-12-09T21:48:39+08:00 | 115.6524103468548 |
| 2025-12-09T21:48:49+08:00 | 115.78057025279247 |
| 2025-12-09T21:48:54+08:00 | 116.25338036449148 |
| 2025-12-09T21:49:09+08:00 | 121.47089947089947 |
| 2025-12-09T21:49:19+08:00 | 121.53689006466784 |
| 2025-12-09T21:49:23+08:00 | 122.06452087007642 |
| 2025-12-09T21:49:38+08:00 | 124.16622574955909 |
| 2025-12-09T21:50:11+08:00 | 124.18283362727807 |
| 2025-12-09T21:50:16+08:00 | 125.17842445620224 |
| 2025-12-09T21:50:31+08:00 | 127.22134038800705 |
| 2025-12-09T22:05:42+08:00 | 128.79570840681953 |
| 2025-12-09T22:05:47+08:00 | 128.87566137566137 |
| 2025-12-09T22:06:11+08:00 | 132.47648442092887 |
| 2025-12-10T08:36:52+08:00 | 132.5163139329806 |
| 2025-12-10T08:36:55+08:00 | 132.80776014109347 |
| 2025-12-10T08:38:03+08:00 | 133.50146972369194 |
| 2025-12-10T08:38:06+08:00 | 135.06084656084656 |
| 2025-12-10T08:39:06+08:00 | 150.77219282774837 |
| 2025-12-10T08:39:24+08:00 | 150.77219282774837 |
| 2025-12-10T09:05:25+08:00 | 150.83274544385657 |
| 2025-12-10T09:05:46+08:00 | 151.0299823633157 |
| 2025-12-10T09:05:56+08:00 | 153.35214579659024 |
| 2025-12-10T09:06:12+08:00 | 153.413139329806 |
| 2025-12-10T09:07:09+08:00 | 154.46693121693121 |
| 2025-12-10T09:50:15+08:00 | 155.8337742504409 |
| 2025-12-10T10:06:01+08:00 | 156.96061140505586 |
| 2025-12-10T10:06:30+08:00 | 157.18356848912404 |
| 2025-12-10T10:06:44+08:00 | 157.9134332745444 |
| 2025-12-10T10:07:04+08:00 | 173.13977072310405 |
| 2025-12-10T11:04:49+08:00 | 173.43121693121694 |
| 2025-12-10T11:04:58+08:00 | 173.54188712522046 |
| 2025-12-10T11:05:10+08:00 | 177.22721928277483 |
| 2025-12-10T11:05:26+08:00 | 196.02498530276307 |
| 2025-12-10T11:38:57+08:00 | 197.6416813639036 |
| 2025-12-10T12:03:38+08:00 | 197.7743974132863 |
| 2025-12-10T12:04:03+08:00 | 200.34376837154616 |
| 2025-12-10T12:04:32+08:00 | 200.52792475014698 |
| 2025-12-10T12:09:14+08:00 | 210.50734861845973 |
| 2025-12-10T13:50:04+08:00 | 210.5983245149912 |
| 2025-12-10T13:50:19+08:00 | 211.3641975308642 |
| 2025-12-10T13:50:32+08:00 | 219.2713109935332 |
| 2025-12-10T13:50:46+08:00 | 220.15314520870078 |
| 2025-12-10T13:51:03+08:00 | 220.385949441505 |
| 2025-12-10T14:05:04+08:00 | 222.42871840094062 |
| 2025-12-10T14:05:31+08:00 | 222.55349794238683 |
| 2025-12-10T14:05:43+08:00 | 222.84038800705468 |
| 2025-12-10T14:05:56+08:00 | 233.27542621987067 |
| 2025-12-10T14:09:23+08:00 | 238.95032333921222 |
| 2025-12-10T15:11:14+08:00 | 239.78453850676073 |
| 2025-12-10T15:11:24+08:00 | 242.2633744855967 |
| 2025-12-10T15:11:36+08:00 | 254.05055849500295 |
| 2025-12-10T15:11:54+08:00 | 254.09347442680777 |
| 2025-12-10T15:53:12+08:00 | 259.9723691945914 |
| 2025-12-10T16:07:50+08:00 | 262.4545855379189 |
| 2025-12-10T16:08:02+08:00 | 273.5950911228689 |
| 2025-12-10T17:16:02+08:00 | 278.6377131099353 |
| 2025-12-10T17:16:13+08:00 | 300.81584362139915 |
| 2025-12-10T17:50:04+08:00 | 403.69650205761315 |
| 2025-12-10T18:03:26+08:00 | 406.9298941798942 |
| 2025-12-10T18:04:01+08:00 | 410.4110817166373 |
| 2025-12-10T18:04:51+08:00 | 415.71310993533217 |
| 2025-12-10T18:05:45+08:00 | 428.9700176366843 |
| 2025-12-10T20:04:57+08:00 | 434.114785420341 |
| 2025-12-10T20:05:12+08:00 | 457.79203409758964 |
| 2025-12-10T20:05:41+08:00 | 461.05085243974133 |
| 2025-12-10T20:05:51+08:00 | 486.65343915343914 |
| 2025-12-10T21:34:24+08:00 | 492.09950029394474 |
| 2025-12-10T21:34:34+08:00 | 519.6274250440918 |
| 2025-12-10T22:12:57+08:00 | 530.3556731334509 |
| 2025-12-10T22:13:10+08:00 | 570.4056437389771 |
| 2025-12-11T08:44:26+08:00 | 790.9082892416226 |
| 2025-12-11T08:44:47+08:00 | 799.9582598471487 |
| 2025-12-11T08:44:53+08:00 | 830.2214873603763 |
| 2025-12-11T08:45:09+08:00 | 830.2214873603763 |
| 2025-12-11T09:21:57+08:00 | 845.7751322751323 |
| 2025-12-11T09:22:07+08:00 | 943.879188712522 |
| 2025-12-11T09:23:32+08:00 | 1199.611111111111 |
| 2025-12-11T09:23:41+08:00 | 1213.5 |
| 2025-12-11T09:26:14+08:00 | 1251.4579659024103 |
| 2025-12-11T10:00:16+08:00 | 1260.0121987066432 |
| 2025-12-11T10:08:46+08:00 | 1272.852733686067 |
| 2025-12-11T17:15:06+08:00 | 1337.49 |
| 時間 | 倍數 |
|---|
| 時間 | 券商 | 孖展資金 |
|---|
以實際認購倍數 1890.73x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.359, 乙組 α=0.400) 為基準，對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數
| 申購手數 | 認購金額(HKD) | 實際期望中籤 | 預測期望中籤 | 偏差 |
|---|
果下科技中籤預測矩陣行為申購檔位，列為不同認購倍數，數值為期望中籤手數，綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手；非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。
機制B
《第18項應用指引》下的靈活發售機制。最低初訂分配份額爲發售股份的10%，不設回補機制。最高初訂分配份額爲發售股份的60%（因《第18項應用指引》規定發售股份總數至少40%須分配予配售部分投資者，基石投資者除外）。發行人可根據發售結構、市場狀況及散戶投資者利益，自行釐定公開認購部分的初訂分配份額。
α 為發行人分配偏好係數，描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。
本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致：中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑，與其他網站可能使用的不同定義（如「申購人數中籤比例」）有本質區別。
期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數
例：某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本頁展示 果下科技（02655）的中籤預測：基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導，公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數；其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準，再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準；隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權；臨近截止（進度約九成後）默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配，估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數，並結合分配手法係數 α（人均分配至比例分配）給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α，覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測，查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源：港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告；孖展數據（孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細）來自捷利交易寶（TradeGo），倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商，捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新；中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。
