孖展動態 孖展倍數810.25x 孖展資金971.3億 捷利預測倍數956.1x
排名 券商 孖展資金
1 富途证券富途 582.8億
2 辉立证券辉立 245.0億
3 老虎国际老虎 86.3億
4 华泰国际华泰 35.7億
5 华盛证券华盛 10.0億
6 盈立证券盈立 4.0億
7 长桥证券长桥 3.0億
8 信诚证券信诚 2.0億
9 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 1.7億
孖展倍數
時間倍數
2025-12-30T06:00:00+08:000
2025-12-30T10:03:14+08:000.014932843914240428
2025-12-30T10:03:25+08:000.04354717610744974
2025-12-30T10:03:41+08:000.053391173771585886
2025-12-30T10:06:54+08:000.15349962459330943
2025-12-30T10:34:29+08:000.15366647201134562
2025-12-30T11:16:10+08:000.16868273963460415
2025-12-30T11:16:33+08:000.19212480186869108
2025-12-30T11:16:51+08:000.20280303662300825
2025-12-30T11:17:06+08:000.5615249854008509
2025-12-30T11:17:21+08:000.5965629431884542
2025-12-30T12:14:43+08:000.6054892800533912
2025-12-30T12:15:18+08:000.6960040043380329
2025-12-30T12:15:36+08:000.8294819387669976
2025-12-30T12:15:58+08:000.8880453824977058
2025-12-30T13:48:57+08:000.8908817886043213
2025-12-30T13:49:36+08:000.898640193543005
2025-12-30T13:49:53+08:001.6744806874113622
2025-12-30T13:50:18+08:001.7468924668390757
2025-12-30T13:50:31+08:001.7802619504463169
2025-12-30T14:02:18+08:001.7828480854258781
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2025-12-30T14:05:06+08:001.8973888379077333
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2025-12-30T14:08:30+08:001.9770584800200217
2025-12-30T15:03:54+08:001.9803120046717277
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2025-12-30T15:04:19+08:002.0001668474180363
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2025-12-30T16:02:02+08:003.038041211312255
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2025-12-30T16:10:50+08:003.1169600400433803
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2025-12-30T17:12:32+08:003.1219654625844666
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2025-12-30T20:44:29+08:0010.381496621339785
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2025-12-30T20:47:07+08:0012.05939768082089
2025-12-30T20:47:19+08:0013.319095686994244
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2025-12-30T21:39:58+08:0013.743972637023441
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2025-12-30T22:22:51+08:0015.084257946108284
2025-12-30T22:23:06+08:0015.243847501459914
2025-12-30T22:23:15+08:0015.844498206390256
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2025-12-31T08:57:24+08:0016.47184449820639
2025-12-31T08:58:38+08:0016.548677734212063
2025-12-31T08:59:01+08:0016.6456160840911
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2025-12-31T08:59:41+08:0019.641528322349213
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2025-12-31T11:03:02+08:0022.051639275882206
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2025-12-31T11:07:35+08:0022.130558104613332
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2025-12-31T12:02:52+08:0022.54617502294152
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2025-12-31T12:07:37+08:0023.651122048886293
2025-12-31T13:41:20+08:0023.653207641611747
2025-12-31T13:41:23+08:0023.71986318511721
2025-12-31T13:41:26+08:0023.71769416868274
2025-12-31T13:41:29+08:0025.352798865437556
2025-12-31T13:41:32+08:0025.35221489947443
2025-12-31T14:27:03+08:0025.88070409610411
2025-12-31T14:27:07+08:0025.94627513139234
2025-12-31T14:27:11+08:0026.03603904229582
2025-12-31T14:27:17+08:0026.038041211312255
2025-12-31T14:27:24+08:0027.31442395928923
2025-12-31T14:28:30+08:0027.439559522816385
2025-12-31T14:31:09+08:0027.807541503295237
2025-12-31T14:34:34+08:0027.83774088595979
2025-12-31T15:28:21+08:0027.786101610077584
2025-12-31T15:28:26+08:0027.821389838992243
2025-12-31T15:28:31+08:0027.867606573788272
2025-12-31T15:28:34+08:0028.56019020605656
2025-12-31T15:28:37+08:0028.56060732460165
2025-12-31T15:28:41+08:0031.06331859514474
2025-12-31T16:22:14+08:0031.89755568532577
2025-12-31T16:22:19+08:0031.958955535163092
2025-12-31T16:22:27+08:0032.15450070910153
2025-12-31T16:22:30+08:0033.781263034954534
2025-12-31T16:32:16+08:0033.79110703261867
2025-12-31T16:33:14+08:0034.6253441227997
2025-12-31T17:01:27+08:0034.62859764745141
2025-12-31T17:04:11+08:0034.87653291065321
2025-12-31T17:05:10+08:0034.92541920413782
2025-12-31T17:06:04+08:0036.402018853758236
2025-12-31T17:25:28+08:0036.40268624343038
2025-12-31T18:08:03+08:0036.61958788687745
2025-12-31T18:08:49+08:0036.691248852924
2025-12-31T18:09:29+08:0036.69300075081338
2025-12-31T18:10:34+08:0036.73529657128556
2025-12-31T18:13:06+08:0036.960624009343455
2025-12-31T18:19:15+08:0037.77817635772087
2025-12-31T19:57:29+08:0037.77876032368399
2025-12-31T19:58:21+08:0037.77292066405273
2025-12-31T19:59:07+08:0037.974305497622424
2025-12-31T19:59:55+08:0037.96596312672062
2025-12-31T20:06:20+08:0037.90039209143239
2025-12-31T20:06:31+08:0037.92366730624843
2025-12-31T20:07:31+08:0037.909568699424376
2025-12-31T20:08:03+08:0038.52690414615834
2025-12-31T21:37:11+08:0038.65746225077167
2025-12-31T21:38:14+08:0038.71485776257612
2025-12-31T21:38:29+08:0038.94844414782681
2025-12-31T22:12:57+08:0039.112872278301495
2025-12-31T22:13:41+08:0039.17644114457329
2025-12-31T22:13:55+08:0040.319345958121296
2026-01-01T09:20:27+08:0040.3719028948027
2026-01-01T09:22:36+08:0040.56736464503212
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2026-01-01T09:26:13+08:0041.3631434053558
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2026-01-01T13:16:31+08:0046.24259614582464
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2026-01-01T16:21:09+08:0049.28230583131726
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2026-01-01T16:25:16+08:0052.0483857512305
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捷利預測倍數
時間倍數
券商孖展資金走勢
時間券商孖展資金
預測模型 一手期望中籤手數— 期望中籤1手所需手數—
倍數推導
近期首日表現
-0.2%
→
參與人數
20,103
→
人均手數
121.4
→
認購倍數
88x
88x = 20,103 × 121.4 ÷ 27,723 孖展加權 100% → 956.1x
1x8342.0x
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.66
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.76
此模型不適用分配手法調節

實際 vs 預測 對比

以實際認購倍數 1091.94x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.656, 乙組 α=0.756) 為基準,對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數

申購手數 認購金額(HKD) 實際期望中籤 預測期望中籤 偏差

標誌精锋医疗-B中籤預測矩陣

行為申購檔位,列為不同認購倍數,數值為期望中籤手數,綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手;非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。

發售機制說明

機制B

《第18項應用指引》下的靈活發售機制。最低初訂分配份額爲發售股份的10%,不設回補機制。最高初訂分配份額爲發售股份的60%(因《第18項應用指引》規定發售股份總數至少40%須分配予配售部分投資者,基石投資者除外)。發行人可根據發售結構、市場狀況及散戶投資者利益,自行釐定公開認購部分的初訂分配份額。

分配手法係數 α

α 為發行人分配偏好係數,描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——無論申購多少手,每位中籤者獲配股數相同。對散戶(小單申購)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——獲配股數與申購手數成正比。對大額申購更有利。
  • 歷史實際 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3–0.9,乙組 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差異較大,反映發行人各自的分配策略。
中籤率定義

本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致:中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑,與其他網站可能使用的不同定義(如「申購人數中籤比例」)有本質區別。

期望中籤手數

期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數

例:某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

關於本頁

本頁展示 精锋医疗-B(02675)的中籤預測:基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導,公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數;其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準,再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準;隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權;臨近截止(進度約九成後)默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配,估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數,並結合分配手法係數 α(人均分配至比例分配)給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α,覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測,查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源:港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告;孖展數據(孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細)來自捷利交易寶(TradeGo),倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商,捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新;中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中籤率預測、中籤畫像與入通分析