孖展動態 孖展倍數820.98x 孖展資金2137.8億 捷利預測倍數1067.28x
排名 券商 孖展資金
1 富途证券富途 1201.8億
2 辉立证券辉立 510.0億
3 老虎国际老虎 195.6億
4 华泰国际华泰 84.8億
5 招银国际招银 38.0億
6 华盛证券华盛 34.0億
7 盈立证券盈立 17.8億
8 熊猫证券熊猫 14.2億
9 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 10.6億
孖展倍數
時間倍數
2026-04-09T06:00:00+08:000
2026-04-09T10:12:13+08:000.1152073732718894
2026-04-09T10:12:28+08:000.15241935483870966
2026-04-09T10:12:44+08:000.3273809523809524
2026-04-09T10:13:04+08:000.8458141321044547
2026-04-09T10:27:43+08:000.8460829493087557
2026-04-09T10:51:27+08:000.8462365591397849
2026-04-09T10:51:34+08:001.3007680491551459
2026-04-09T11:01:23+08:001.3310675883256529
2026-04-09T11:07:17+08:001.331336405529954
2026-04-09T11:07:38+08:001.588748079877112
2026-04-09T11:08:00+08:001.672926267281106
2026-04-09T11:08:24+08:004.372619047619048
2026-04-09T11:50:00+08:004.3728878648233485
2026-04-09T12:14:03+08:004.386482334869432
2026-04-09T12:14:43+08:004.450499231950845
2026-04-09T12:15:00+08:004.640898617511521
2026-04-09T12:15:18+08:007.014170506912443
2026-04-09T13:43:31+08:007.014746543778802
2026-04-09T13:43:41+08:007.029493087557603
2026-04-09T13:43:44+08:007.031182795698925
2026-04-09T13:43:48+08:007.033410138248848
2026-04-09T13:44:40+08:007.03963133640553
2026-04-09T13:45:00+08:007.304915514592934
2026-04-09T13:45:23+08:007.326536098310292
2026-04-09T13:45:54+08:009.108410138248848
2026-04-09T13:50:32+08:009.119546850998464
2026-04-09T14:06:30+08:009.127380952380953
2026-04-09T14:07:11+08:009.26578341013825
2026-04-09T14:08:12+08:0010.23736559139785
2026-04-09T14:08:30+08:0010.264861751152074
2026-04-09T14:09:10+08:0010.265168970814132
2026-04-09T14:09:34+08:0010.39957757296467
2026-04-09T14:11:43+08:0010.774078341013825
2026-04-09T15:16:36+08:0010.774347158218125
2026-04-09T15:16:39+08:0010.763479262672812
2026-04-09T15:17:06+08:0010.772503840245776
2026-04-09T15:17:25+08:0012.331643625192012
2026-04-09T15:17:45+08:0012.385675883256528
2026-04-09T15:18:05+08:0012.646466973886328
2026-04-09T15:18:13+08:0012.646774193548387
2026-04-09T16:09:49+08:0012.667511520737326
2026-04-09T16:09:51+08:0012.695353302611368
2026-04-09T16:09:54+08:0012.723195084485408
2026-04-09T16:10:37+08:0013.012365591397849
2026-04-09T16:10:54+08:0013.156374807987712
2026-04-09T16:11:11+08:0013.60568356374808
2026-04-09T16:11:31+08:0013.652726574500768
2026-04-09T16:36:31+08:0013.806336405529954
2026-04-09T16:48:37+08:0013.807450076804916
2026-04-09T17:07:56+08:0013.883602150537634
2026-04-09T17:08:28+08:0014.058256528417818
2026-04-09T17:08:53+08:0014.079147465437789
2026-04-09T17:09:41+08:0014.093279569892474
2026-04-09T17:10:05+08:0016.40126728110599
2026-04-09T17:51:52+08:0016.411021505376343
2026-04-09T17:51:55+08:0016.4110599078341
2026-04-09T17:52:13+08:0027.355760368663596
2026-04-09T18:05:00+08:0027.384639016897083
2026-04-09T18:06:21+08:0027.861482334869432
2026-04-09T18:06:38+08:0029.985138248847925
2026-04-09T18:07:36+08:0030.03325652841782
2026-04-09T18:08:12+08:0031.397273425499233
2026-04-09T18:17:18+08:0031.397503840245776
2026-04-09T22:31:17+08:0032.177073732718895
2026-04-09T22:31:22+08:0032.99120583717358
2026-04-09T22:31:26+08:0033.88598310291859
2026-04-09T22:31:31+08:0034.93052995391705
2026-04-09T22:31:57+08:0035.186290322580646
2026-04-09T22:32:02+08:0035.60814132104455
2026-04-09T22:32:06+08:0035.66171274961597
2026-04-09T22:32:10+08:0036.15641321044547
2026-04-09T22:35:00+08:0036.21317204301075
2026-04-09T22:35:04+08:0036.29807987711214
2026-04-09T22:35:08+08:0036.46048387096774
2026-04-09T22:35:12+08:0036.59742703533026
2026-04-09T22:40:12+08:0036.59761904761905
2026-04-09T22:40:17+08:0036.59788786482335
2026-04-09T22:40:20+08:0036.598195084485404
2026-04-09T22:41:08+08:0036.64120583717358
2026-04-10T08:42:23+08:0036.87242703533026
2026-04-10T08:42:41+08:0036.99143625192012
2026-04-10T08:42:49+08:0036.99143625192012
2026-04-10T08:43:11+08:0036.99143625192012
2026-04-10T08:43:20+08:0037.01931643625192
2026-04-10T08:43:30+08:0038.50072964669739
2026-04-10T08:44:08+08:0038.751881720430106
2026-04-10T08:44:19+08:0045.391666666666666
2026-04-10T08:44:27+08:0045.40556835637481
2026-04-10T09:07:07+08:0045.455184331797234
2026-04-10T09:07:49+08:0045.48932411674347
2026-04-10T09:08:55+08:0046.55307219662058
2026-04-10T09:09:23+08:0046.65867895545315
2026-04-10T09:09:59+08:0048.03840245775729
2026-04-10T10:05:28+08:0048.04082181259601
2026-04-10T10:06:04+08:0050.295046082949305
2026-04-10T10:06:23+08:0050.35203533026114
2026-04-10T10:07:01+08:0050.352611367127494
2026-04-10T10:07:44+08:0050.54377880184332
2026-04-10T10:08:23+08:0051.50384024577573
2026-04-10T11:11:27+08:0051.50802611367128
2026-04-10T11:12:26+08:0051.98175883256528
2026-04-10T11:12:47+08:0055.10387864823349
2026-04-10T11:13:10+08:0055.21689708141321
2026-04-10T11:13:39+08:0055.22384792626728
2026-04-10T11:36:48+08:0055.79988479262673
2026-04-10T11:52:36+08:0055.81382488479262
2026-04-10T12:09:47+08:0057.01232718894009
2026-04-10T12:10:30+08:0057.30856374807988
2026-04-10T12:10:59+08:0060.630376344086024
2026-04-10T12:11:16+08:0060.69573732718894
2026-04-10T13:40:35+08:0060.793356374807985
2026-04-10T13:41:17+08:0061.10779569892473
2026-04-10T13:41:35+08:0062.82822580645161
2026-04-10T13:41:51+08:0062.901382488479264
2026-04-10T13:42:39+08:0062.9026113671275
2026-04-10T13:42:41+08:0062.889708141321044
2026-04-10T13:42:44+08:0062.889592933947775
2026-04-10T14:13:22+08:0063.04823348694316
2026-04-10T14:14:19+08:0063.315706605222736
2026-04-10T14:14:40+08:0063.3502688172043
2026-04-10T14:15:32+08:0066.4992703533026
2026-04-10T14:17:55+08:0068.19761904761904
2026-04-10T14:19:31+08:0068.18310291858678
2026-04-10T14:46:39+08:0068.18337173579108
2026-04-10T15:15:53+08:0068.23982334869432
2026-04-10T15:16:09+08:0068.2968509984639
2026-04-10T15:16:30+08:0070.9274193548387
2026-04-10T15:16:45+08:0071.32853302611367
2026-04-10T15:17:29+08:0071.37031490015362
2026-04-10T16:24:46+08:0071.38006912442397
2026-04-10T16:24:54+08:0071.38160522273425
2026-04-10T16:25:28+08:0071.9576420890937
2026-04-10T16:26:17+08:0072.68221966205837
2026-04-10T16:26:33+08:0075.63536866359448
2026-04-10T16:26:55+08:0075.72165898617511
2026-04-10T16:27:30+08:0075.7671658986175
2026-04-10T16:41:24+08:0075.90637480798772
2026-04-10T16:58:49+08:0075.91056067588326
2026-04-10T17:19:04+08:0076.02288786482335
2026-04-10T17:19:21+08:0078.30399385560676
2026-04-10T17:20:48+08:0079.47503840245776
2026-04-10T17:21:10+08:0079.54308755760368
2026-04-10T17:21:43+08:0079.54335637480798
2026-04-10T17:46:40+08:0099.32062211981567
2026-04-10T18:02:13+08:0099.32968509984639
2026-04-10T18:03:10+08:00100.11950844854071
2026-04-10T18:06:24+08:00100.17822580645161
2026-04-10T18:06:50+08:00100.45384024577572
2026-04-10T18:07:28+08:00101.72112135176651
2026-04-10T18:41:09+08:00101.72223502304148
2026-04-10T22:38:27+08:00101.78279569892473
2026-04-10T22:38:32+08:00101.86574500768049
2026-04-10T22:38:36+08:00101.91582181259601
2026-04-10T22:38:40+08:00101.97619047619048
2026-04-10T22:40:24+08:00102.16866359447005
2026-04-10T22:40:31+08:00102.43897849462365
2026-04-10T22:40:35+08:00102.82450076804915
2026-04-10T22:40:39+08:00103.83563748079877
2026-04-10T22:44:32+08:00105.38325652841782
2026-04-10T22:44:36+08:00107.49923195084486
2026-04-10T22:44:47+08:00110.18356374807988
2026-04-10T22:44:51+08:00111.95775729646698
2026-04-10T22:48:40+08:00111.9623271889401
2026-04-10T22:50:54+08:00111.96359447004609
2026-04-10T22:50:58+08:00111.96428571428571
2026-04-10T22:51:02+08:00111.96551459293394
2026-04-10T22:51:07+08:00111.96413210445469
2026-04-11T10:20:45+08:00112.03018433179723
2026-04-11T10:21:12+08:00112.08824884792627
2026-04-11T10:21:16+08:00112.12154377880184
2026-04-11T10:21:19+08:00112.13533026113672
2026-04-11T10:23:11+08:00120.96405529953917
2026-04-11T10:23:15+08:00122.64224270353303
2026-04-11T10:23:19+08:00124.15145929339478
2026-04-11T10:26:04+08:00125.50994623655914
2026-04-11T10:26:07+08:00126.6978494623656
2026-04-11T10:26:11+08:00126.8773425499232
2026-04-11T10:26:14+08:00127.08878648233487
2026-04-11T10:27:37+08:00127.13517665130568
2026-04-11T10:27:41+08:00127.15176651305684
2026-04-11T10:29:08+08:00127.14788786482335
2026-04-11T10:29:29+08:00127.14788786482335
2026-04-11T11:27:41+08:00128.772311827957
2026-04-11T11:28:22+08:00128.83141321044548
2026-04-11T11:29:04+08:00129.2284178187404
2026-04-11T11:29:12+08:00129.23241167434716
2026-04-11T12:34:07+08:00129.23878648233486
2026-04-11T12:35:01+08:00130.59439324116744
2026-04-11T12:35:22+08:00130.6481182795699
2026-04-11T12:36:06+08:00131.102688172043
2026-04-11T13:05:28+08:00131.20245775729646
2026-04-11T13:05:49+08:00132.51582181259602
2026-04-11T13:06:29+08:00132.83671274961597
2026-04-11T13:07:08+08:00132.84086021505377
2026-04-11T15:08:27+08:00134.0121351766513
2026-04-11T15:08:52+08:00134.94147465437788
2026-04-11T15:10:22+08:00135.28079877112134
2026-04-11T15:10:36+08:00135.64205069124424
2026-04-11T15:12:50+08:00135.65168970814133
2026-04-11T15:12:59+08:00135.65779569892473
2026-04-11T15:13:31+08:00135.65806451612903
2026-04-11T15:14:18+08:00135.69312596006145
2026-04-11T15:14:32+08:00135.7311827956989
2026-04-11T18:06:24+08:00137.40552995391704
2026-04-11T18:06:37+08:00138.74193548387098
2026-04-11T18:06:50+08:00139.35253456221199
2026-04-11T18:09:29+08:00139.44166666666666
2026-04-11T18:09:41+08:00139.49884792626727
2026-04-11T18:09:53+08:00139.50833333333333
2026-04-11T18:11:18+08:00139.51198156682028
2026-04-11T18:11:27+08:00139.51532258064515
2026-04-11T18:11:35+08:00139.51693548387098
2026-04-11T18:13:03+08:00139.88352534562213
2026-04-11T18:13:15+08:00140.00660522273427
2026-04-11T18:13:29+08:00140.07872503840247
2026-04-11T22:24:07+08:00141.09639016897083
2026-04-11T22:24:19+08:00141.94124423963135
2026-04-11T22:24:23+08:00143.5579877112135
2026-04-11T22:24:28+08:00144.9135944700461
2026-04-11T22:57:10+08:00144.91624423963134
2026-04-11T22:57:14+08:00144.9630184331797
2026-04-11T22:57:17+08:00145.00464669738864
2026-04-11T22:57:21+08:00145.03594470046082
2026-04-11T22:58:26+08:00145.19393241167435
2026-04-11T22:58:30+08:00145.38160522273427
2026-04-11T22:58:33+08:00145.74608294930874
2026-04-11T22:58:38+08:00145.98582949308755
2026-04-11T23:01:40+08:00145.98609831029185
2026-04-11T23:01:44+08:00145.98636712749615
2026-04-11T23:01:49+08:00145.98790322580646
2026-04-11T23:02:51+08:00145.99059139784947
2026-04-12T10:18:27+08:00145.99059139784947
2026-04-12T10:20:03+08:00148.3149385560676
2026-04-12T10:21:06+08:00148.34116743471583
2026-04-12T10:21:46+08:00148.4871351766513
2026-04-12T10:22:42+08:00156.27515360983102
2026-04-12T10:22:57+08:00158.12999231950846
2026-04-12T13:09:15+08:00158.1300307219662
2026-04-12T13:11:18+08:00158.2351766513057
2026-04-12T13:12:50+08:00160.01513056835637
2026-04-12T13:13:52+08:00160.0223886328725
2026-04-12T13:14:27+08:00164.31578341013824
2026-04-12T13:14:42+08:00166.5892089093702
2026-04-12T16:22:53+08:00166.66778033794162
2026-04-12T16:23:36+08:00166.67165898617512
2026-04-12T16:24:16+08:00167.60733486943164
2026-04-12T16:25:06+08:00171.99673579109063
2026-04-12T16:25:24+08:00174.08966973886328
2026-04-12T18:18:24+08:00174.09354838709677
2026-04-12T18:19:05+08:00174.22046850998464
2026-04-12T18:19:55+08:00175.65967741935484
2026-04-12T18:20:40+08:00178.25568356374808
2026-04-12T18:20:54+08:00180.87089093701996
2026-04-12T20:07:38+08:00181.03817204301075
2026-04-12T20:07:53+08:00181.03932411674347
2026-04-12T20:08:56+08:00182.60625960061444
2026-04-12T20:09:19+08:00185.95879416282642
2026-04-12T20:09:34+08:00190.4480414746544
2026-04-12T22:08:02+08:00190.45011520737327
2026-04-12T22:11:09+08:00192.9682411674347
2026-04-12T22:11:47+08:00193.34681259600615
2026-04-12T22:12:09+08:00198.33145161290324
2026-04-12T22:12:25+08:00203.88828725038402
2026-04-13T08:43:51+08:00205.5874807987711
2026-04-13T08:44:00+08:00210.32069892473118
2026-04-13T08:44:21+08:00210.51597542242703
2026-04-13T08:44:29+08:00211.09781105990783
2026-04-13T08:44:55+08:00211.09781105990783
2026-04-13T08:45:16+08:00246.4549539170507
2026-04-13T08:45:51+08:00246.45545314900153
2026-04-13T09:14:57+08:00246.5416282642089
2026-04-13T09:15:26+08:00248.10096006144394
2026-04-13T09:15:54+08:00261.8375192012289
2026-04-13T09:16:40+08:00261.8635560675883
2026-04-13T09:17:21+08:00262.14212749615973
2026-04-13T09:17:53+08:00267.51847158218123
2026-04-13T09:18:33+08:00278.9725806451613
2026-04-13T09:52:06+08:00278.9728494623656
2026-04-13T10:02:43+08:00279.00545314900154
2026-04-13T10:03:30+08:00279.00848694316437
2026-04-13T10:04:04+08:00281.7390168970814
2026-04-13T10:04:21+08:00281.74719662058374
2026-04-13T10:05:26+08:00302.3808371735791
2026-04-13T10:28:35+08:00302.3947388632873
2026-04-13T11:09:26+08:00302.43890168970813
2026-04-13T11:09:39+08:00306.2400153609831
2026-04-13T11:10:20+08:00317.49961597542244
2026-04-13T11:10:51+08:00317.4709293394777
2026-04-13T11:11:03+08:00317.4711213517665
2026-04-13T11:13:40+08:00319.6910138248848
2026-04-13T11:45:32+08:00320.9582949308756
2026-04-13T11:51:13+08:00320.9722350230415
2026-04-13T12:02:38+08:00321.1000768049155
2026-04-13T12:08:47+08:00321.1581029185868
2026-04-13T12:09:36+08:00322.40994623655916
2026-04-13T12:10:27+08:00330.85464669738866
2026-04-13T12:11:46+08:00330.85480030721965
2026-04-13T13:45:44+08:00330.87415514592936
2026-04-13T13:45:47+08:00331.75326420890934
2026-04-13T13:45:50+08:00332.15238095238095
2026-04-13T13:45:53+08:00332.3589861751152
2026-04-13T13:45:57+08:00332.3479646697389
2026-04-13T13:46:00+08:00332.383064516129
2026-04-13T13:47:10+08:00333.3045698924731
2026-04-13T13:47:22+08:00333.3317204301075
2026-04-13T13:47:42+08:00341.53448540706603
2026-04-13T13:48:08+08:00342.1489247311828
2026-04-13T13:48:22+08:00342.27046850998465
2026-04-13T13:49:22+08:00342.3683179723502
2026-04-13T14:08:11+08:00342.4577188940092
2026-04-13T14:08:40+08:00342.5078341013825
2026-04-13T14:08:58+08:00343.56044546851
2026-04-13T14:09:11+08:00351.2178955453149
2026-04-13T14:09:32+08:00351.2930491551459
2026-04-13T14:10:39+08:00356.8858678955453
2026-04-13T15:10:44+08:00356.9390552995392
2026-04-13T15:10:50+08:00356.94032258064516
2026-04-13T15:10:58+08:00356.98306451612905
2026-04-13T15:11:16+08:00357.23705837173577
2026-04-13T15:11:38+08:00364.4874423963134
2026-04-13T15:12:02+08:00364.5178187403994
2026-04-13T15:12:29+08:00365.66309523809525
2026-04-13T15:34:17+08:00365.8976958525346
2026-04-13T15:34:24+08:00366.8051075268817
2026-04-13T16:04:37+08:00366.8120583717358
2026-04-13T16:04:43+08:00366.81451612903226
2026-04-13T16:05:16+08:00374.2799539170507
2026-04-13T16:05:48+08:00375.18636712749617
2026-04-13T16:06:07+08:00375.2554915514593
2026-04-13T17:10:52+08:00375.2557603686636
2026-04-13T17:11:16+08:00375.26478494623655
2026-04-13T17:11:30+08:00382.4268433179723
2026-04-13T17:12:25+08:00383.8297619047619
2026-04-13T17:29:00+08:00384.8282258064516
2026-04-13T17:30:42+08:00486.97876344086023
2026-04-13T17:32:32+08:00496.5793778801843
2026-04-13T18:13:28+08:00496.59051459293397
2026-04-13T18:13:45+08:00497.42980030721964
2026-04-13T18:14:12+08:00497.4815668202765
2026-04-13T18:14:17+08:00503.00384024577573
2026-04-13T18:15:01+08:00505.0701612903226
2026-04-13T20:36:36+08:00505.15691244239633
2026-04-13T20:36:45+08:00505.1559139784946
2026-04-13T20:37:21+08:00507.5056067588326
2026-04-13T20:37:31+08:00512.7897849462365
2026-04-13T20:37:44+08:00518.9879416282643
2026-04-13T22:07:57+08:00518.9921274961598
2026-04-13T22:09:31+08:00522.8161674347158
2026-04-13T22:09:55+08:00522.9023041474654
2026-04-13T22:10:00+08:00530.5597542242704
2026-04-13T22:10:14+08:00542.4606758832565
2026-04-14T08:35:19+08:00544.2937788018434
2026-04-14T08:35:27+08:00555.0291090629801
2026-04-14T08:35:53+08:00555.0427803379416
2026-04-14T08:36:01+08:00555.1506528417818
2026-04-14T08:36:27+08:00555.1506528417818
2026-04-14T08:37:25+08:00634.5630952380952
2026-04-14T08:38:10+08:00634.5634024577573
2026-04-14T09:03:44+08:00637.9768049155145
2026-04-14T09:04:10+08:00637.9767665130569
2026-04-14T09:04:46+08:00645.833371735791
2026-04-14T09:07:01+08:00674.627534562212
2026-04-14T09:26:13+08:00676.9316820276498
2026-04-14T09:40:07+08:00676.9329493087557
2026-04-14T10:07:49+08:00736.5105222734255
2026-04-14T10:08:36+08:00740.424193548387
2026-04-14T11:07:01+08:00741.0991551459293
2026-04-14T13:45:41+08:00804.0791858678955
2026-04-14T13:48:19+08:00809.0715053763441
2026-04-14T16:28:02+08:00820.98
捷利預測倍數
時間倍數
券商孖展資金走勢
時間券商孖展資金
預測模型 一手期望中籤手數— 期望中籤1手所需手數—
倍數推導
近期首日表現
+4.6%
→
參與人數
22,156
→
人均手數
77.8
→
認購倍數
26x
26x = 22,156 × 77.8 ÷ 65,295 孖展加權 100% → 1067.3x
1x3840.0x
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.50
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.60
此模型不適用分配手法調節

實際 vs 預測 對比

以實際認購倍數 1138.21x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.496, 乙組 α=0.596) 為基準,對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數

申購手數 認購金額(HKD) 實際期望中籤 預測期望中籤 偏差

標誌长光辰芯中籤預測矩陣

行為申購檔位,列為不同認購倍數,數值為期望中籤手數,綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手;非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。

發售機制說明

機制B

《第18項應用指引》下的靈活發售機制。最低初訂分配份額爲發售股份的10%,不設回補機制。最高初訂分配份額爲發售股份的60%(因《第18項應用指引》規定發售股份總數至少40%須分配予配售部分投資者,基石投資者除外)。發行人可根據發售結構、市場狀況及散戶投資者利益,自行釐定公開認購部分的初訂分配份額。

分配手法係數 α

α 為發行人分配偏好係數,描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——無論申購多少手,每位中籤者獲配股數相同。對散戶(小單申購)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——獲配股數與申購手數成正比。對大額申購更有利。
  • 歷史實際 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3–0.9,乙組 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差異較大,反映發行人各自的分配策略。
中籤率定義

本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致:中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑,與其他網站可能使用的不同定義(如「申購人數中籤比例」)有本質區別。

期望中籤手數

期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數

例:某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

關於本頁

本頁展示 长光辰芯(03277)的中籤預測:基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導,公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數;其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準,再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準;隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權;臨近截止(進度約九成後)默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配,估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數,並結合分配手法係數 α(人均分配至比例分配)給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α,覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測,查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源:港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告;孖展數據(孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細)來自捷利交易寶(TradeGo),倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商,捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新;中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中籤率預測、中籤畫像與入通分析