孖展動態 孖展倍數898.5x 孖展資金1206.4億 捷利預測倍數1168.05x
排名 券商 孖展資金
1 富途证券富途 626.7億
2 辉立证券辉立 363.0億
3 老虎国际老虎 96.9億
4 华泰国际华泰 28.4億
5 信诚证券信诚 20.0億
6 致富证券致富 16.0億
7 盈立证券盈立 13.9億
8 华盛证券华盛 13.1億
9 复星国际复星 11.3億
孖展倍數
時間倍數
2026-06-12T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-12T10:07:36+08:000.02249199374394876
2026-06-12T10:08:15+08:000.022566470544425413
2026-06-12T10:08:29+08:000.054442541148432264
2026-06-12T11:07:33+08:000.0758918596857079
2026-06-12T11:08:07+08:000.1610188426305206
2026-06-12T11:08:23+08:000.17755269233633722
2026-06-12T11:08:52+08:000.5201459745289342
2026-06-12T11:09:06+08:000.55738437476726
2026-06-12T11:22:45+08:000.5580546659715498
2026-06-12T11:43:18+08:000.558650480375363
2026-06-12T12:07:30+08:000.5860579429507708
2026-06-12T12:07:44+08:000.62322186638862
2026-06-12T12:08:14+08:000.6306695464362851
2026-06-12T12:08:36+08:001.219036270201832
2026-06-12T12:08:54+08:001.2196320846056454
2026-06-12T12:09:08+08:001.2200789454085053
2026-06-12T13:40:01+08:001.2279734862590304
2026-06-12T13:40:45+08:001.1990020108736128
2026-06-12T13:41:07+08:001.383183138452372
2026-06-12T13:41:53+08:001.68
2026-06-12T14:02:30+08:001.6900275564161764
2026-06-12T14:03:01+08:001.694794071646682
2026-06-12T14:04:17+08:002.3371564757578014
2026-06-12T14:05:08+08:002.4192299098830716
2026-06-12T14:06:02+08:002.9778059134579578
2026-06-12T15:06:44+08:002.98331719669323
2026-06-12T15:07:00+08:002.9883816191256423
2026-06-12T15:07:11+08:003.0541446339465255
2026-06-12T15:07:28+08:003.0692634244432857
2026-06-12T15:10:08+08:003.1884263052059283
2026-06-12T16:07:09+08:003.1991509644745664
2026-06-12T16:07:55+08:003.2035450957026885
2026-06-12T16:08:19+08:003.2058538765174647
2026-06-12T16:08:37+08:003.2173233037908693
2026-06-12T16:08:58+08:003.3588292246965072
2026-06-12T16:28:31+08:003.5822596261264614
2026-06-12T17:04:07+08:003.6262754152081627
2026-06-12T17:05:48+08:003.65681090340359
2026-06-12T17:06:15+08:003.664854397855068
2026-06-12T17:06:39+08:003.6664184106650777
2026-06-12T17:06:56+08:003.7557905712370596
2026-06-12T17:16:04+08:007.479630595069636
2026-06-12T18:04:57+08:007.312877038802413
2026-06-12T18:05:20+08:007.337007522156848
2026-06-12T18:05:53+08:007.36054219110747
2026-06-12T18:05:59+08:007.367021672748939
2026-06-12T18:06:20+08:007.369032546361808
2026-06-12T18:07:29+08:007.503090787219781
2026-06-12T20:04:31+08:007.5062188128398
2026-06-12T20:05:53+08:007.580695613316452
2026-06-12T20:06:02+08:007.577716541297386
2026-06-12T20:06:11+08:007.5555224547553435
2026-06-12T20:06:30+08:007.565800253221122
2026-06-12T20:07:02+08:007.655172413793103
2026-06-12T22:04:01+08:007.657183287405973
2026-06-12T22:05:01+08:007.776346168168615
2026-06-12T22:05:17+08:007.796603857898265
2026-06-12T22:05:36+08:007.803902584344977
2026-06-12T22:05:58+08:007.893274744916958
2026-06-13T10:09:50+08:007.893274744916958
2026-06-13T10:12:22+08:008.196991137260744
2026-06-13T10:12:41+08:008.196544276457884
2026-06-13T10:13:08+08:009.075370522082371
2026-06-13T10:13:24+08:009.104639904669696
2026-06-13T10:13:28+08:009.21062039174797
2026-06-13T10:14:18+08:009.262754152081627
2026-06-13T12:57:14+08:009.285246145825575
2026-06-13T12:58:02+08:009.290385045058464
2026-06-13T12:58:44+08:009.294779176286587
2026-06-13T13:01:25+08:009.302226856334253
2026-06-13T13:02:13+08:009.3990466969539
2026-06-13T13:02:26+08:009.401281000968199
2026-06-13T13:02:36+08:009.401206524167721
2026-06-13T13:03:17+08:009.412675951441127
2026-06-13T13:06:26+08:009.464809711774782
2026-06-13T15:25:55+08:009.546734192299098
2026-06-13T15:26:10+08:009.547776867505773
2026-06-13T15:26:25+08:009.549340880315782
2026-06-13T15:26:30+08:009.563789379608252
2026-06-13T15:26:50+08:009.597601847024652
2026-06-13T15:27:32+08:009.627392567215312
2026-06-13T18:27:52+08:009.665524689059358
2026-06-13T18:28:26+08:009.672302077902733
2026-06-13T18:28:47+08:009.708199895732479
2026-06-13T18:29:19+08:009.717583972592537
2026-06-13T18:30:52+08:0010.238921575929098
2026-06-13T18:31:08+08:0010.31339837640575
2026-06-13T20:09:46+08:0010.31719669323006
2026-06-13T20:10:32+08:0010.652342295374991
2026-06-13T20:10:41+08:0010.654948983391673
2026-06-13T20:10:52+08:0010.68972964921427
2026-06-13T20:11:11+08:0010.695911223653832
2026-06-13T20:11:37+08:0010.710806583749163
2026-06-13T22:33:10+08:0010.713934609369181
2026-06-13T22:33:16+08:0010.714679377373947
2026-06-13T22:33:35+08:0010.714977284575854
2026-06-13T22:33:50+08:0010.716466820585387
2026-06-13T22:34:09+08:0010.717062634989201
2026-06-13T22:34:32+08:0011.342667758993073
2026-06-14T09:39:26+08:0011.343784911000224
2026-06-14T09:40:23+08:0011.3438593878007
2026-06-14T09:40:27+08:0011.344902063007373
2026-06-14T09:40:32+08:0011.351679451850748
2026-06-14T09:46:48+08:0011.537871453042378
2026-06-14T09:47:26+08:0011.545765993892902
2026-06-14T09:49:06+08:0011.566619498026364
2026-06-14T12:40:20+08:0011.567289789230655
2026-06-14T12:40:25+08:0012.079466746108587
2026-06-14T12:40:30+08:0012.079913606911447
2026-06-14T12:42:19+08:0012.079988083711923
2026-06-14T12:42:24+08:0012.080285990913831
2026-06-14T12:42:28+08:0012.080658374916213
2026-06-14T12:44:43+08:0012.087733670961496
2026-06-14T12:44:47+08:0012.089074253370075
2026-06-14T12:44:52+08:0012.092574662992478
2026-06-14T12:46:57+08:0012.122365383183139
2026-06-14T12:47:01+08:0012.1521561033738
2026-06-14T12:47:06+08:0012.18194682356446
2026-06-14T12:51:11+08:0012.184404557980189
2026-06-14T12:51:25+08:0012.210545914947494
2026-06-14T16:12:07+08:0012.245475534371044
2026-06-14T16:12:12+08:0012.24555001117152
2026-06-14T16:19:25+08:0012.282788411409847
2026-06-14T16:19:39+08:0012.327474491695837
2026-06-14T16:19:45+08:0012.364712891934163
2026-06-14T16:19:55+08:0012.483875772696805
2026-06-14T16:27:10+08:0012.484173679898712
2026-06-14T16:27:16+08:0012.486556937513964
2026-06-14T16:27:20+08:0012.487078275117302
2026-06-14T16:27:25+08:0012.487003798316824
2026-06-14T16:29:11+08:0012.487674089521114
2026-06-14T16:29:15+08:0012.502718403217397
2026-06-14T16:29:19+08:0012.538988605049527
2026-06-14T16:29:24+08:0012.54025471065763
2026-06-14T16:31:07+08:0012.542042153869069
2026-06-14T19:09:57+08:0012.5569375139644
2026-06-14T19:10:46+08:0012.906978476204662
2026-06-14T19:10:55+08:0012.966559916585984
2026-06-14T19:11:39+08:0012.967826022194087
2026-06-14T19:11:51+08:0012.9684218365979
2026-06-14T19:13:47+08:0012.97177329261935
2026-06-14T19:13:50+08:0012.972220153422208
2026-06-14T19:13:54+08:0012.972592537424593
2026-06-14T19:17:21+08:0012.97378416623222
2026-06-14T19:17:34+08:0012.974305503835556
2026-06-14T19:17:46+08:0012.976092947046995
2026-06-14T19:19:21+08:0012.978029343859388
2026-06-14T19:19:25+08:0012.978327251061295
2026-06-14T19:19:29+08:0012.97996574067178
2026-06-14T22:04:53+08:0013.005585760035748
2026-06-14T22:06:25+08:0013.176882401132048
2026-06-14T22:06:45+08:0013.29604528189469
2026-06-14T22:06:58+08:0013.459894242943323
2026-06-14T22:09:01+08:0013.46153273255381
2026-06-14T22:09:06+08:0013.461607209354286
2026-06-14T22:09:11+08:0013.461905116556192
2026-06-14T22:09:47+08:0013.462500930960006
2026-06-15T08:33:57+08:0013.482833097490133
2026-06-15T08:34:09+08:0013.507410441647426
2026-06-15T08:35:36+08:0013.507410441647426
2026-06-15T08:36:05+08:0014.371341327176584
2026-06-15T09:20:03+08:0014.862888210322485
2026-06-15T09:20:13+08:0015.042600729872644
2026-06-15T09:20:25+08:0015.07008266924853
2026-06-15T09:20:32+08:0015.122439859983615
2026-06-15T09:20:39+08:0015.152826394578089
2026-06-15T09:20:54+08:0015.264541595293066
2026-06-15T10:07:09+08:0015.308706337975721
2026-06-15T10:07:22+08:0015.350711253444553
2026-06-15T10:07:28+08:0015.463618082967155
2026-06-15T10:07:34+08:0015.578088925299769
2026-06-15T10:07:54+08:0016.613316451925225
2026-06-15T11:07:38+08:0016.66373724584792
2026-06-15T11:08:49+08:0017.026364787368735
2026-06-15T11:10:01+08:0017.055932077157966
2026-06-15T11:10:44+08:0017.07961569970954
2026-06-15T11:11:22+08:0017.839279064571386
2026-06-15T12:09:20+08:0017.980784985477023
2026-06-15T12:10:12+08:0018.036121248231176
2026-06-15T12:11:46+08:0018.176063156326805
2026-06-15T12:12:22+08:0019.315558203619574
2026-06-15T12:14:04+08:0019.342444328591643
2026-06-15T12:15:12+08:0019.62523274000149
2026-06-15T13:46:20+08:0019.669844343487004
2026-06-15T13:47:49+08:0019.675430103522753
2026-06-15T13:49:23+08:0019.681388247560886
2026-06-15T13:50:02+08:0019.690474417219036
2026-06-15T13:50:26+08:0019.973486259030313
2026-06-15T14:01:25+08:0019.99113726074328
2026-06-15T14:01:58+08:0019.99620168317569
2026-06-15T14:03:26+08:0020.013852684888658
2026-06-15T14:04:06+08:0020.05757056676845
2026-06-15T14:05:51+08:0021.461830639755718
2026-06-15T14:07:55+08:0021.789528561852983
2026-06-15T14:49:32+08:0023.279064571386012
2026-06-15T15:09:32+08:0023.34676398301929
2026-06-15T15:11:33+08:0023.545244656289565
2026-06-15T15:12:06+08:0023.555299024353914
2026-06-15T15:12:42+08:0023.589037014969836
2026-06-15T15:13:13+08:0023.805019736352126
2026-06-15T16:12:49+08:0023.824234750875103
2026-06-15T16:14:21+08:0024.439189692410814
2026-06-15T16:15:04+08:0024.456468310121398
2026-06-15T16:15:52+08:0024.483801295896328
2026-06-15T16:16:22+08:0026.733000670291204
2026-06-15T16:34:48+08:0027.366053474342742
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2026-06-15T17:04:38+08:0027.752588068816564
2026-06-15T17:05:43+08:0029.694272734043345
2026-06-15T17:06:48+08:0031.296194235495644
2026-06-15T17:07:39+08:0045.1339837640575
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2026-06-15T18:09:32+08:0078.27615997616742
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捷利預測倍數
時間倍數
券商孖展資金走勢
時間券商孖展資金
預測模型 一手期望中籤手數— 期望中籤1手所需手數—
倍數推導
近期首日表現
-0.2%
→
參與人數
17,779
→
人均手數
52.1
→
認購倍數
31x
31x = 17,779 × 52.1 ÷ 29,905 A+H二次上市 · 參與×0.44 H股折價 56.4% 孖展加權 100% → 1168.0x
1x7447.0x
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.54
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.64
此模型不適用分配手法調節

實際 vs 預測 對比

以實際認購倍數 1563.16x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.544, 乙組 α=0.644) 為基準,對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數

申購手數 認購金額(HKD) 實際期望中籤 預測期望中籤 偏差

標誌星源材质中籤預測矩陣

行為申購檔位,列為不同認購倍數,數值為期望中籤手數,綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手;非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。

發售機制說明

機制B

《第18項應用指引》下的靈活發售機制。最低初訂分配份額爲發售股份的10%,不設回補機制。最高初訂分配份額爲發售股份的60%(因《第18項應用指引》規定發售股份總數至少40%須分配予配售部分投資者,基石投資者除外)。發行人可根據發售結構、市場狀況及散戶投資者利益,自行釐定公開認購部分的初訂分配份額。

分配手法係數 α

α 為發行人分配偏好係數,描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——無論申購多少手,每位中籤者獲配股數相同。對散戶(小單申購)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——獲配股數與申購手數成正比。對大額申購更有利。
  • 歷史實際 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3–0.9,乙組 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差異較大,反映發行人各自的分配策略。
中籤率定義

本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致:中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑,與其他網站可能使用的不同定義(如「申購人數中籤比例」)有本質區別。

期望中籤手數

期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數

例:某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

關於本頁

本頁展示 星源材质(06067)的中籤預測:基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導,公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數;其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準,再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準;隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權;臨近截止(進度約九成後)默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配,估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數,並結合分配手法係數 α(人均分配至比例分配)給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α,覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測,查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源:港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告;孖展數據(孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細)來自捷利交易寶(TradeGo),倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商,捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新;中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中籤率預測、中籤畫像與入通分析