孖展動態 孖展倍數120.89x 孖展資金152.8億 捷利預測倍數161.99x
排名 券商 孖展資金
1 富途证券富途 85.9億
2 辉立证券辉立 35.0億
3 老虎国际老虎 14.3億
4 华泰国际华泰 6.4億
5 致富证券致富 2.7億
6 复星国际复星 2.7億
7 盈立证券盈立 1.7億
8 华盛证券华盛 1.3億
9 熊猫证券熊猫 1.3億
孖展倍數
時間倍數
2026-06-30T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-30T11:21:45+08:000.00031643066213116053
2026-06-30T11:21:53+08:000.0013448303140574322
2026-06-30T11:22:06+08:000.009255596867336445
2026-06-30T12:14:38+08:000.009492919863934815
2026-06-30T12:19:23+08:000.02033067004192706
2026-06-30T12:21:18+08:000.020647100704058223
2026-06-30T12:23:18+08:000.03275057353057511
2026-06-30T12:26:45+08:000.0881259394035282
2026-06-30T14:02:26+08:000.08852147773119215
2026-06-30T14:02:29+08:000.08915433905545447
2026-06-30T14:06:39+08:000.08820504706906099
2026-06-30T14:06:42+08:000.08860058539672494
2026-06-30T14:13:50+08:000.09477098330828257
2026-06-30T14:13:53+08:000.09975476623684836
2026-06-30T14:18:44+08:000.10766553279012736
2026-06-30T14:24:37+08:000.10924768610078317
2026-06-30T14:31:34+08:000.11154180840123408
2026-06-30T15:03:27+08:000.11209556205996361
2026-06-30T15:05:36+08:000.11644648366426706
2026-06-30T15:16:45+08:000.11684202199193101
2026-06-30T16:29:20+08:000.11897792896131636
2026-06-30T16:33:11+08:000.11905703662684915
2026-06-30T17:07:07+08:000.11992722094770983
2026-06-30T17:11:03+08:000.12040186694090657
2026-06-30T17:14:22+08:000.12071829760303773
2026-06-30T18:07:41+08:000.1210347282651689
2026-06-30T18:12:56+08:000.12119294359623448
2026-06-30T18:16:46+08:000.11106716240803734
2026-06-30T18:21:29+08:000.1122537773910292
2026-06-30T18:26:31+08:001.3779764259156713
2026-06-30T20:09:13+08:001.378055533581204
2026-06-30T20:12:47+08:001.3783719642433352
2026-06-30T20:17:36+08:001.3785301795744007
2026-06-30T22:06:13+08:001.3786883949054662
2026-07-01T08:42:55+08:001.3798750098884582
2026-07-01T08:42:57+08:001.4149197057194842
2026-07-01T08:46:13+08:001.4153152440471481
2026-07-01T09:02:54+08:001.4153152440471481
2026-07-01T09:05:25+08:001.4221185032829682
2026-07-01T09:07:47+08:001.422514041610632
2026-07-01T09:10:31+08:001.4227513646072305
2026-07-01T09:12:22+08:001.422988687603829
2026-07-01T09:18:23+08:001.4238588719246894
2026-07-01T09:25:20+08:001.4243335179178862
2026-07-01T10:18:28+08:001.4246499485800175
2026-07-01T10:22:27+08:001.424808163911083
2026-07-01T10:28:03+08:001.4248872715766159
2026-07-01T11:09:17+08:001.425124594573214
2026-07-01T12:14:06+08:001.4254410252353453
2026-07-01T12:16:33+08:001.4264694248872716
2026-07-01T12:18:20+08:001.4267858555494026
2026-07-01T12:19:31+08:001.4268649632149355
2026-07-01T14:11:30+08:001.427023178546001
2026-07-01T14:15:04+08:001.4277351475357962
2026-07-01T14:15:07+08:001.4306621311605094
2026-07-01T14:18:42+08:001.4860374970334624
2026-07-01T14:18:45+08:001.4939482635867416
2026-07-01T14:23:35+08:001.4940273712522742
2026-07-01T14:26:03+08:001.4942646942488726
2026-07-01T14:32:09+08:001.4968752472114548
2026-07-01T15:09:56+08:001.4969543548769875
2026-07-01T15:13:14+08:001.4978245391978482
2026-07-01T15:15:36+08:001.4980618621944466
2026-07-01T16:14:44+08:001.4981409698599795
2026-07-01T17:03:41+08:001.498299185191045
2026-07-01T17:06:10+08:001.4987738311842418
2026-07-01T17:08:09+08:001.4986156158531763
2026-07-01T18:02:55+08:001.4989320465153073
2026-07-01T18:04:27+08:001.4990111541808402
2026-07-01T18:10:14+08:001.5069219207341191
2026-07-01T18:21:00+08:001.5081876433826438
2026-07-01T20:58:47+08:001.508504074044775
2026-07-01T21:00:21+08:001.5157819792737917
2026-07-01T21:02:14+08:001.5236927458270706
2026-07-01T22:10:32+08:001.5238509611581361
2026-07-02T08:44:18+08:001.5251957914721936
2026-07-02T08:44:20+08:001.525828652796456
2026-07-02T08:47:53+08:001.5319199430424808
2026-07-02T08:47:55+08:001.531840835376948
2026-07-02T08:52:00+08:001.539751601930227
2026-07-02T08:58:43+08:001.539751601930227
2026-07-02T09:13:21+08:001.549244521794162
2026-07-02T09:20:55+08:001.5481370144767028
2026-07-02T09:26:41+08:001.5494027371252275
2026-07-02T09:29:59+08:001.5508266751048176
2026-07-02T09:33:03+08:001.5033620757851436
2026-07-02T09:52:44+08:001.5141998259631357
2026-07-02T10:14:40+08:001.5139625029665376
2026-07-02T10:17:17+08:001.5137251799699392
2026-07-02T10:19:05+08:001.5145953642907999
2026-07-02T10:21:55+08:001.5142789336286686
2026-07-02T10:25:35+08:001.5854758326081797
2026-07-02T11:13:52+08:001.5929910608337947
2026-07-02T11:15:10+08:001.6167233604936317
2026-07-02T11:16:52+08:001.634364369907444
2026-07-02T11:18:46+08:001.6395854758326083
2026-07-02T12:11:54+08:001.6398227988292065
2026-07-02T12:16:41+08:001.6406138754845345
2026-07-02T12:19:04+08:001.6414049521398624
2026-07-02T12:21:55+08:001.6493157186931413
2026-07-02T14:07:51+08:001.6468633810616249
2026-07-02T14:07:54+08:001.6365793845423622
2026-07-02T14:12:28+08:001.6372122458666245
2026-07-02T14:12:30+08:001.6473380270548217
2026-07-02T14:17:27+08:001.6474962423858872
2026-07-02T14:17:41+08:001.6565145162566253
2026-07-02T14:25:32+08:001.7593544814492523
2026-07-02T14:25:36+08:001.7648129103710148
2026-07-02T14:37:43+08:002.2396962265643543
2026-07-02T15:01:28+08:002.245629301479313
2026-07-02T15:03:22+08:002.2411201645439442
2026-07-02T15:06:26+08:002.2440471481686575
2026-07-02T15:09:45+08:002.2441262558341903
2026-07-02T15:11:43+08:002.2696780318012815
2026-07-02T15:13:16+08:002.2617672652480025
2026-07-02T16:05:07+08:002.2620045882446007
2026-07-02T16:07:20+08:002.2624001265722646
2026-07-02T16:10:45+08:002.283126334941856
2026-07-02T16:14:18+08:002.2839965192627165
2026-07-02T17:04:17+08:002.2841547345937823
2026-07-02T17:06:30+08:002.2848667035835772
2026-07-02T17:08:32+08:002.2877145795427576
2026-07-02T17:10:16+08:002.287951902539356
2026-07-02T17:11:42+08:002.2832845502729215
2026-07-02T17:13:54+08:002.3307491495925956
2026-07-02T18:13:35+08:001.8765129341033147
2026-07-02T18:18:00+08:001.8766711494343802
2026-07-02T18:21:56+08:001.8776204414207738
2026-07-02T18:22:05+08:001.8777786567518393
2026-07-02T18:26:41+08:002.58974764654695
2026-07-02T20:42:13+08:002.589905861878016
2026-07-02T20:43:56+08:002.5912506921920735
2026-07-02T20:50:13+08:002.673839095008306
2026-07-02T20:52:12+08:002.7054821612214224
2026-07-02T21:49:37+08:002.7055612688869553
2026-07-02T22:08:16+08:002.7054821612214224
2026-07-02T22:10:21+08:002.7031880389209713
2026-07-02T22:12:20+08:002.6952772723676923
2026-07-03T08:38:31+08:002.7103077288189223
2026-07-03T08:38:33+08:002.6910054584289216
2026-07-03T08:44:05+08:002.6910845660944545
2026-07-03T08:45:58+08:002.6910845660944545
2026-07-03T08:48:23+08:002.6752630329878966
2026-07-03T09:02:34+08:002.688632228462938
2026-07-03T09:06:46+08:002.6914009967565855
2026-07-03T09:09:46+08:002.6911636737599873
2026-07-03T09:12:41+08:002.7076180681908077
2026-07-03T09:20:22+08:002.719167787358595
2026-07-03T10:16:18+08:002.718060280041136
2026-07-03T10:17:47+08:002.721145478996915
2026-07-03T10:20:24+08:002.729056245550194
2026-07-03T10:27:20+08:002.729293568546792
2026-07-03T10:29:53+08:002.7212245866624474
2026-07-03T11:12:36+08:002.7220156633177757
2026-07-03T11:14:18+08:002.765841310022941
2026-07-03T11:16:26+08:002.813305909342615
2026-07-03T11:18:10+08:002.81117000237323
2026-07-03T11:19:08+08:002.8128312633494184
2026-07-03T12:28:50+08:002.8144134166600745
2026-07-03T12:29:45+08:002.8148089549877384
2026-07-03T12:30:09+08:002.814096985997943
2026-07-03T12:33:07+08:002.813701447670279
2026-07-03T12:34:44+08:002.812673048018353
2026-07-03T13:40:42+08:002.812752155683886
2026-07-03T13:41:49+08:002.8140178783324106
2026-07-03T13:43:42+08:002.8456609445455263
2026-07-03T13:46:03+08:002.8302349497666324
2026-07-03T14:01:14+08:002.8338739023811406
2026-07-03T14:04:41+08:002.8377501779922474
2026-07-03T14:07:48+08:002.838620362313108
2026-07-03T14:10:55+08:002.854441895419666
2026-07-03T14:12:58+08:002.854521003085199
2026-07-03T15:20:07+08:002.8660707222529864
2026-07-03T15:21:08+08:002.8686812752155686
2026-07-03T15:21:57+08:002.860770508662289
2026-07-03T15:25:04+08:002.861245154655486
2026-07-03T16:04:48+08:002.8621153389763467
2026-07-03T16:05:48+08:002.8621944466418796
2026-07-03T16:06:48+08:002.8780159797484375
2026-07-03T16:07:50+08:002.8799145637212247
2026-07-03T16:09:04+08:002.8808638557076183
2026-07-03T17:09:34+08:002.8836326240012657
2026-07-03T17:12:02+08:002.8837117316667986
2026-07-03T17:12:37+08:002.885056561980856
2026-07-03T17:13:28+08:002.8870342536191758
2026-07-03T17:15:39+08:002.9028557867257336
2026-07-03T18:34:42+08:002.908788861640693
2026-07-03T18:36:51+08:002.9131397832449966
2026-07-03T18:39:31+08:002.9143263982279883
2026-07-03T18:40:56+08:002.9157503362075787
2026-07-03T18:41:47+08:002.915908551538644
2026-07-03T18:51:19+08:002.918993750494423
2026-07-03T21:05:44+08:002.919784827149751
2026-07-03T21:06:35+08:002.9258761173957755
2026-07-03T21:08:44+08:002.9280911320306937
2026-07-03T21:10:28+08:002.930385254331145
2026-07-03T21:12:56+08:002.930701684993276
2026-07-04T09:34:33+08:002.930701684993276
2026-07-04T09:36:26+08:002.931334546317538
2026-07-04T09:37:17+08:002.957440075943359
2026-07-04T09:38:44+08:002.9582311525986866
2026-07-04T09:39:51+08:002.961949212878728
2026-07-04T09:41:47+08:002.974685547029507
2026-07-04T09:43:04+08:003.077525512222134
2026-07-04T10:27:16+08:003.0776837275532
2026-07-04T10:30:07+08:003.0777628352187327
2026-07-04T10:30:25+08:003.0782374812119295
2026-07-04T12:02:39+08:003.0783165888774624
2026-07-04T12:10:44+08:003.0786330195395935
2026-07-04T12:12:18+08:003.0933470453286924
2026-07-04T15:36:58+08:003.092239538011233
2026-07-04T15:39:54+08:003.083616802468159
2026-07-04T15:40:06+08:003.0845660944545528
2026-07-04T15:42:26+08:003.1082983941143896
2026-07-04T15:42:54+08:003.1003876275611106
2026-07-04T18:35:39+08:003.1006249505577093
2026-07-04T18:36:23+08:003.101020488885373
2026-07-04T18:38:34+08:003.1014951348785695
2026-07-04T18:40:52+08:003.1331382010916857
2026-07-04T20:04:21+08:003.1332964164227515
2026-07-04T20:06:52+08:003.1338501700814807
2026-07-04T20:09:07+08:003.157582469741318
2026-07-05T09:35:02+08:003.1633573293252115
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2026-07-05T09:44:58+08:003.183529784036073
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2026-07-05T09:53:24+08:003.1600348073728344
2026-07-05T09:53:58+08:003.1603512380349654
2026-07-05T12:18:53+08:003.1761727711415237
2026-07-05T12:23:32+08:003.176330986472589
2026-07-05T12:24:11+08:003.176489201803655
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2026-07-05T12:41:45+08:003.17917886243177
2026-07-05T14:50:10+08:003.1813147694011548
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2026-07-05T17:16:44+08:003.2025947314294756
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捷利預測倍數
時間倍數
券商孖展資金走勢
時間券商孖展資金
預測模型 一手期望中籤手數— 期望中籤1手所需手數—
倍數推導
近期首日表現
+4.6%
→
參與人數
12,901
→
人均手數
46.4
→
認購倍數
17x
17x = 12,901 × 46.4 ÷ 35,213 A+H二次上市 · 參與×0.44 H股折價 39.3% 孖展加權 100% → 162.0x
1x8160.0x
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.54
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.64
此模型不適用分配手法調節

實際 vs 預測 對比

以實際認購倍數 227.58x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.542, 乙組 α=0.642) 為基準,對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數

申購手數 認購金額(HKD) 實際期望中籤 預測期望中籤 偏差

標誌滨化股份中籤預測矩陣

行為申購檔位,列為不同認購倍數,數值為期望中籤手數,綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手;非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。

發售機制說明

機制B

《第18項應用指引》下的靈活發售機制。最低初訂分配份額爲發售股份的10%,不設回補機制。最高初訂分配份額爲發售股份的60%(因《第18項應用指引》規定發售股份總數至少40%須分配予配售部分投資者,基石投資者除外)。發行人可根據發售結構、市場狀況及散戶投資者利益,自行釐定公開認購部分的初訂分配份額。

分配手法係數 α

α 為發行人分配偏好係數,描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——無論申購多少手,每位中籤者獲配股數相同。對散戶(小單申購)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——獲配股數與申購手數成正比。對大額申購更有利。
  • 歷史實際 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3–0.9,乙組 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差異較大,反映發行人各自的分配策略。
中籤率定義

本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致:中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑,與其他網站可能使用的不同定義(如「申購人數中籤比例」)有本質區別。

期望中籤手數

期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數

例:某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

關於本頁

本頁展示 滨化股份(06745)的中籤預測:基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導,公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數;其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準,再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準;隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權;臨近截止(進度約九成後)默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配,估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數,並結合分配手法係數 α(人均分配至比例分配)給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α,覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測,查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源:港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告;孖展數據(孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細)來自捷利交易寶(TradeGo),倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商,捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新;中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中籤率預測、中籤畫像與入通分析