江西生物 06915
新股中籤預測
5.9055.37%( -0.335 )
11月13日 · 收市數據，非即時 · 香港交易所
基於相似IPO匹配的期望中籤預測
新股中籤預測| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展資金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
72.2億 |
| 2 |  老虎 |
12.1億 |
| 3 |  辉立 |
6.0億 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
4.4億 |
| 5 |  盈立 |
3.1億 |
| 6 |  复星 |
1.8億 |
| 7 |  致富 |
1.7億 |
| 8 |  华盛 |
1.0億 |
| 9 |  熊猫 |
7036萬 |
| 時間 | 倍數 |
|---|---|
| 2026-06-22T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-06-22T10:17:38+08:00 | 0.0061284868977176665 |
| 2026-06-22T10:17:45+08:00 | 0.011411665257819104 |
| 2026-06-22T10:17:51+08:00 | 0.012468300929839391 |
| 2026-06-22T10:17:57+08:00 | 0.5196534234995773 |
| 2026-06-22T11:14:42+08:00 | 0.5946745562130178 |
| 2026-06-22T11:17:54+08:00 | 0.6187658495350803 |
| 2026-06-22T11:20:05+08:00 | 0.621513102282333 |
| 2026-06-22T11:23:29+08:00 | 0.5158495350803043 |
| 2026-06-22T12:10:38+08:00 | 0.5160608622147084 |
| 2026-06-22T12:12:31+08:00 | 0.6297548605240912 |
| 2026-06-22T12:15:25+08:00 | 0.6299661876584953 |
| 2026-06-22T12:16:49+08:00 | 0.7778951817413355 |
| 2026-06-22T12:21:51+08:00 | 0.7789518174133558 |
| 2026-06-22T14:14:03+08:00 | 0.8846153846153846 |
| 2026-06-22T14:18:10+08:00 | 0.8928571428571429 |
| 2026-06-22T14:18:14+08:00 | 0.8945477599323753 |
| 2026-06-22T14:22:06+08:00 | 0.900887573964497 |
| 2026-06-22T14:23:47+08:00 | 0.9642857142857143 |
| 2026-06-22T14:23:50+08:00 | 1.0276838546069316 |
| 2026-06-22T14:27:02+08:00 | 1.0297971259509722 |
| 2026-06-22T14:27:05+08:00 | 1.0300084530853761 |
| 2026-06-22T14:30:04+08:00 | 1.0407861369399831 |
| 2026-06-22T14:40:16+08:00 | 1.0464919695688926 |
| 2026-06-22T15:12:54+08:00 | 1.0486052409129332 |
| 2026-06-22T15:14:37+08:00 | 1.0494505494505495 |
| 2026-06-22T15:15:59+08:00 | 1.0931952662721893 |
| 2026-06-22T16:04:15+08:00 | 1.099323753169907 |
| 2026-06-22T16:08:52+08:00 | 1.1187658495350803 |
| 2026-06-22T16:10:08+08:00 | 1.1193998309382924 |
| 2026-06-22T16:12:44+08:00 | 1.1204564666103127 |
| 2026-06-22T16:16:05+08:00 | 1.775570583262891 |
| 2026-06-22T17:03:56+08:00 | 1.790152155536771 |
| 2026-06-22T17:05:10+08:00 | 1.790363482671175 |
| 2026-06-22T17:06:47+08:00 | 1.7893068469991547 |
| 2026-06-22T17:08:02+08:00 | 1.937235841081995 |
| 2026-06-22T17:10:00+08:00 | 2.106297548605241 |
| 2026-06-22T17:11:47+08:00 | 2.106931530008453 |
| 2026-06-22T18:01:28+08:00 | 2.111158072696534 |
| 2026-06-22T18:10:11+08:00 | 2.1263736263736264 |
| 2026-06-22T18:11:42+08:00 | 2.1316568047337277 |
| 2026-06-22T18:13:05+08:00 | 2.1369399830938294 |
| 2026-06-22T18:13:52+08:00 | 2.3060016906170753 |
| 2026-06-22T18:14:11+08:00 | 2.308114961961116 |
| 2026-06-22T18:14:45+08:00 | 2.308748943364328 |
| 2026-06-22T18:15:23+08:00 | 3.999366018596788 |
| 2026-06-22T20:22:43+08:00 | 3.999577345731192 |
| 2026-06-22T20:27:13+08:00 | 4.004226542688081 |
| 2026-06-22T20:28:15+08:00 | 4.0065511411665256 |
| 2026-06-22T20:30:49+08:00 | 4.010143702451395 |
| 2026-06-22T20:31:50+08:00 | 4.0135249366018595 |
| 2026-06-22T20:35:13+08:00 | 4.562975486052409 |
| 2026-06-22T22:06:35+08:00 | 4.562130177514793 |
| 2026-06-22T22:07:59+08:00 | 4.563398140321217 |
| 2026-06-22T22:10:07+08:00 | 4.750845308537616 |
| 2026-06-23T08:37:30+08:00 | 4.793110735418428 |
| 2026-06-23T08:40:02+08:00 | 4.79374471682164 |
| 2026-06-23T08:40:06+08:00 | 4.794801352493661 |
| 2026-06-23T08:42:55+08:00 | 4.7967032967032965 |
| 2026-06-23T08:42:59+08:00 | 4.825232459847845 |
| 2026-06-23T09:19:06+08:00 | 4.873837700760777 |
| 2026-06-23T09:19:18+08:00 | 4.890321217244294 |
| 2026-06-23T09:19:24+08:00 | 4.723795435333897 |
| 2026-06-23T09:19:33+08:00 | 4.7273879966187655 |
| 2026-06-23T09:19:41+08:00 | 4.854184277261201 |
| 2026-06-23T10:09:55+08:00 | 4.864539306846999 |
| 2026-06-23T10:11:10+08:00 | 4.864327979712595 |
| 2026-06-23T10:13:02+08:00 | 4.867920540997464 |
| 2026-06-23T10:14:40+08:00 | 5.100380388841927 |
| 2026-06-23T11:02:32+08:00 | 5.1058748943364325 |
| 2026-06-23T11:03:08+08:00 | 5.108622147083685 |
| 2026-06-23T11:09:07+08:00 | 5.117286559594252 |
| 2026-06-23T11:11:27+08:00 | 5.118554522400676 |
| 2026-06-23T11:12:09+08:00 | 5.120033812341505 |
| 2026-06-23T11:13:10+08:00 | 5.267962806424345 |
| 2026-06-23T12:13:00+08:00 | 5.27240067624683 |
| 2026-06-23T12:14:56+08:00 | 5.2726120033812345 |
| 2026-06-23T12:15:17+08:00 | 5.277049873203719 |
| 2026-06-23T12:15:46+08:00 | 5.277472527472527 |
| 2026-06-23T12:16:26+08:00 | 5.279585798816568 |
| 2026-06-23T12:16:54+08:00 | 5.258453085376162 |
| 2026-06-23T13:40:08+08:00 | 5.263736263736264 |
| 2026-06-23T13:40:56+08:00 | 5.263947590870668 |
| 2026-06-23T13:41:34+08:00 | 5.264370245139476 |
| 2026-06-23T13:43:53+08:00 | 5.306635672020287 |
| 2026-06-23T14:01:50+08:00 | 5.310016906170753 |
| 2026-06-23T14:02:54+08:00 | 5.311073541842773 |
| 2026-06-23T14:04:41+08:00 | 5.31403212172443 |
| 2026-06-23T14:10:00+08:00 | 5.340448013524937 |
| 2026-06-23T15:13:53+08:00 | 5.347633136094674 |
| 2026-06-23T15:16:35+08:00 | 5.348689771766695 |
| 2026-06-23T15:18:51+08:00 | 5.353550295857988 |
| 2026-06-23T16:35:10+08:00 | 5.353761622992392 |
| 2026-06-23T16:36:30+08:00 | 5.356508875739645 |
| 2026-06-23T16:38:52+08:00 | 5.357565511411665 |
| 2026-06-23T16:39:35+08:00 | 5.358199492814878 |
| 2026-06-23T16:40:37+08:00 | 5.361580726965342 |
| 2026-06-23T16:41:17+08:00 | 5.446111580726965 |
| 2026-06-23T17:01:43+08:00 | 5.450972104818258 |
| 2026-06-23T17:02:20+08:00 | 5.453085376162299 |
| 2026-06-23T17:07:16+08:00 | 5.453930684699915 |
| 2026-06-23T17:08:07+08:00 | 5.454564666103128 |
| 2026-06-23T17:08:36+08:00 | 5.4814032121724425 |
| 2026-06-23T17:09:24+08:00 | 5.24894336432798 |
| 2026-06-23T18:08:27+08:00 | 5.266483516483516 |
| 2026-06-23T18:10:42+08:00 | 5.269019442096365 |
| 2026-06-23T18:12:04+08:00 | 5.2696534234995775 |
| 2026-06-23T18:13:58+08:00 | 6.1149619611158075 |
| 2026-06-23T18:14:48+08:00 | 6.117920540997464 |
| 2026-06-23T18:16:34+08:00 | 6.1390532544378695 |
| 2026-06-23T20:15:54+08:00 | 6.142434488588335 |
| 2026-06-23T20:18:08+08:00 | 6.143702451394759 |
| 2026-06-23T20:19:01+08:00 | 6.149408284023669 |
| 2026-06-23T20:21:10+08:00 | 6.1770921386306 |
| 2026-06-23T20:22:02+08:00 | 6.6420118343195265 |
| 2026-06-23T21:06:21+08:00 | 6.642857142857143 |
| 2026-06-23T22:04:12+08:00 | 6.647717666948436 |
| 2026-06-23T22:05:12+08:00 | 6.66821639898563 |
| 2026-06-23T22:06:36+08:00 | 6.669907016060862 |
| 2026-06-23T22:07:19+08:00 | 6.691039729501268 |
| 2026-06-24T08:35:26+08:00 | 6.695688926458157 |
| 2026-06-24T08:35:48+08:00 | 6.702451394759087 |
| 2026-06-24T08:39:26+08:00 | 6.702451394759087 |
| 2026-06-24T09:15:37+08:00 | 6.926880811496196 |
| 2026-06-24T09:17:08+08:00 | 6.92814877430262 |
| 2026-06-24T09:18:14+08:00 | 6.9251901944209635 |
| 2026-06-24T09:19:10+08:00 | 6.9321639898562974 |
| 2026-06-24T09:20:31+08:00 | 7.185756551141167 |
| 2026-06-24T09:29:27+08:00 | 7.18956043956044 |
| 2026-06-24T10:08:27+08:00 | 7.191462383770076 |
| 2026-06-24T10:09:00+08:00 | 7.2043533389687235 |
| 2026-06-24T10:09:31+08:00 | 7.210059171597633 |
| 2026-06-24T10:10:33+08:00 | 7.210270498732037 |
| 2026-06-24T10:11:12+08:00 | 7.484995773457312 |
| 2026-06-24T11:22:38+08:00 | 7.509932375316991 |
| 2026-06-24T11:23:15+08:00 | 7.512890955198648 |
| 2026-06-24T11:24:07+08:00 | 7.515849535080305 |
| 2026-06-24T11:24:57+08:00 | 7.516060862214708 |
| 2026-06-24T11:25:17+08:00 | 7.517328825021132 |
| 2026-06-24T11:25:54+08:00 | 7.918850380388842 |
| 2026-06-24T12:10:49+08:00 | 7.9270921386306 |
| 2026-06-24T12:11:58+08:00 | 7.941885038038884 |
| 2026-06-24T12:12:50+08:00 | 7.957100591715976 |
| 2026-06-24T12:13:46+08:00 | 7.9974640743871515 |
| 2026-06-24T12:14:58+08:00 | 8.018596787827557 |
| 2026-06-24T13:47:36+08:00 | 8.019442096365173 |
| 2026-06-24T13:48:11+08:00 | 8.021132713440405 |
| 2026-06-24T13:48:37+08:00 | 7.85207100591716 |
| 2026-06-24T13:49:10+08:00 | 7.8579881656804735 |
| 2026-06-24T13:49:56+08:00 | 7.888841927303465 |
| 2026-06-24T13:50:31+08:00 | 7.909974640743871 |
| 2026-06-24T14:03:32+08:00 | 7.922231614539307 |
| 2026-06-24T14:04:45+08:00 | 7.924556213017752 |
| 2026-06-24T14:05:08+08:00 | 7.9251901944209635 |
| 2026-06-24T14:05:27+08:00 | 8.002535925612849 |
| 2026-06-24T14:06:01+08:00 | 8.013947590870668 |
| 2026-06-24T14:06:56+08:00 | 8.373203719357566 |
| 2026-06-24T14:08:13+08:00 | 8.390321217244294 |
| 2026-06-24T15:11:43+08:00 | 8.384192730346577 |
| 2026-06-24T15:12:44+08:00 | 8.387785291631445 |
| 2026-06-24T15:13:06+08:00 | 8.398351648351648 |
| 2026-06-24T15:13:27+08:00 | 8.399619611158073 |
| 2026-06-24T15:14:28+08:00 | 8.406382079459002 |
| 2026-06-24T15:14:49+08:00 | 8.554311073541843 |
| 2026-06-24T16:19:10+08:00 | 8.578825021132714 |
| 2026-06-24T16:20:02+08:00 | 8.58072696534235 |
| 2026-06-24T16:20:26+08:00 | 8.505494505494505 |
| 2026-06-24T16:21:32+08:00 | 8.52557058326289 |
| 2026-06-24T16:23:17+08:00 | 8.673499577345732 |
| 2026-06-24T16:23:55+08:00 | 8.675612848689772 |
| 2026-06-24T17:00:33+08:00 | 9.098267117497887 |
| 2026-06-24T17:01:03+08:00 | 10.820583262890954 |
| 2026-06-24T17:01:55+08:00 | 10.83284023668639 |
| 2026-06-24T17:04:02+08:00 | 15.321217244294168 |
| 2026-06-24T17:04:23+08:00 | 15.323119188503805 |
| 2026-06-24T17:05:12+08:00 | 15.323753169907016 |
| 2026-06-24T17:05:31+08:00 | 30.180050718512256 |
| 2026-06-24T18:06:42+08:00 | 32.98076923076923 |
| 2026-06-24T18:16:14+08:00 | 43.12447168216399 |
| 2026-06-24T18:16:29+08:00 | 44.057480980557905 |
| 2026-06-24T18:18:05+08:00 | 44.201606086221474 |
| 2026-06-24T18:18:30+08:00 | 45.60038038884193 |
| 2026-06-24T18:18:48+08:00 | 45.624260355029584 |
| 2026-06-24T18:19:55+08:00 | 45.6561707523246 |
| 2026-06-24T18:20:16+08:00 | 45.90976331360947 |
| 2026-06-24T18:20:38+08:00 | 58.46259509721048 |
| 2026-06-24T20:13:36+08:00 | 59.02387996618766 |
| 2026-06-24T20:14:50+08:00 | 59.46576500422654 |
| 2026-06-24T20:15:48+08:00 | 60.684065934065934 |
| 2026-06-24T20:16:39+08:00 | 60.96935756551141 |
| 2026-06-24T20:17:13+08:00 | 64.18153000845308 |
| 2026-06-24T20:17:43+08:00 | 78.9110312764159 |
| 2026-06-24T21:41:42+08:00 | 79.30874894336432 |
| 2026-06-24T22:04:24+08:00 | 80.04522400676247 |
| 2026-06-24T22:05:23+08:00 | 80.25169061707523 |
| 2026-06-24T22:06:10+08:00 | 82.6037616229924 |
| 2026-06-24T22:06:45+08:00 | 100.14391377852917 |
| 2026-06-25T08:41:29+08:00 | 102.5101437024514 |
| 2026-06-25T08:42:02+08:00 | 108.60101437024514 |
| 2026-06-25T08:43:47+08:00 | 108.98753169907016 |
| 2026-06-25T08:44:04+08:00 | 109.40321217244295 |
| 2026-06-25T08:44:38+08:00 | 159.72020287404902 |
| 2026-06-25T08:48:57+08:00 | 159.72020287404902 |
| 2026-06-25T09:04:14+08:00 | 160.7768385460693 |
| 2026-06-25T09:05:31+08:00 | 162.33114961961115 |
| 2026-06-25T09:06:12+08:00 | 162.35249366018596 |
| 2026-06-25T09:06:34+08:00 | 163.96513102282333 |
| 2026-06-25T09:06:57+08:00 | 180.406382079459 |
| 2026-06-25T09:07:44+08:00 | 183.0090870667794 |
| 2026-06-25T09:07:59+08:00 | 185.8286136939983 |
| 2026-06-25T09:10:17+08:00 | 192.13672865595942 |
| 2026-06-25T10:07:43+08:00 | 192.4114539306847 |
| 2026-06-25T10:08:14+08:00 | 195.69103972950126 |
| 2026-06-25T10:09:13+08:00 | 217.22527472527472 |
| 2026-06-25T11:06:18+08:00 | 219.58 |
| 時間 | 倍數 |
|---|
| 時間 | 券商 | 孖展資金 |
|---|
以實際認購倍數 476.56x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.503, 乙組 α=0.603) 為基準，對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數
| 申購手數 | 認購金額(HKD) | 實際期望中籤 | 預測期望中籤 | 偏差 |
|---|
江西生物中籤預測矩陣行為申購檔位，列為不同認購倍數，數值為期望中籤手數，綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手；非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。
機制B
《第18項應用指引》下的靈活發售機制。最低初訂分配份額爲發售股份的10%，不設回補機制。最高初訂分配份額爲發售股份的60%（因《第18項應用指引》規定發售股份總數至少40%須分配予配售部分投資者，基石投資者除外）。發行人可根據發售結構、市場狀況及散戶投資者利益，自行釐定公開認購部分的初訂分配份額。
α 為發行人分配偏好係數，描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。
本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致：中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑，與其他網站可能使用的不同定義（如「申購人數中籤比例」）有本質區別。
期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數
例：某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本頁展示 江西生物（06915）的中籤預測：基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導，公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數；其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準，再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準；隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權；臨近截止（進度約九成後）默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配，估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數，並結合分配手法係數 α（人均分配至比例分配）給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α，覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測，查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源：港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告；孖展數據（孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細）來自捷利交易寶（TradeGo），倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商，捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新；中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。
