孖展動態 孖展倍數65.93x 孖展資金105.1億 捷利預測倍數85.71x
排名 券商 孖展資金
1 富途证券富途 59.0億
2 辉立证券辉立 34.0億
3 老虎国际老虎 6.6億
4 华泰国际华泰 3.2億
5 华盛证券华盛 8800萬
6 盈立证券盈立 5158萬
7 长桥证券长桥 3695萬
8 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 2586萬
9 信诚证券信诚 1000萬
孖展倍數
時間倍數
2025-12-31T06:00:00+08:000
2025-12-31T10:04:27+08:000.016379039849388138
2025-12-31T10:05:20+08:000.01644179479133982
2025-12-31T10:06:49+08:000.06664574835268278
2025-12-31T11:04:37+08:000.09890178851584562
2025-12-31T11:06:46+08:000.09965484781926577
2025-12-31T11:07:25+08:000.10404769375588327
2025-12-31T11:08:23+08:000.6060872293693128
2025-12-31T12:03:05+08:000.6086601819893317
2025-12-31T12:04:36+08:000.6321932852212112
2025-12-31T12:06:14+08:000.6471289614057107
2025-12-31T12:07:55+08:001.7076874803890807
2025-12-31T13:43:39+08:001.7080640100407907
2025-12-31T13:43:42+08:001.7242547850643237
2025-12-31T13:43:45+08:001.7464072795732664
2025-12-31T13:43:48+08:002.104110448697835
2025-12-31T14:23:29+08:002.1166614370881707
2025-12-31T14:23:40+08:002.1169124568559776
2025-12-31T14:23:43+08:002.135676184499529
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2025-12-31T14:23:50+08:002.29645434577973
2025-12-31T14:31:55+08:002.434703482899278
2025-12-31T15:28:53+08:002.4370254157514903
2025-12-31T15:28:59+08:002.495889551302165
2025-12-31T15:29:04+08:002.5228114213994353
2025-12-31T15:29:10+08:003.150360840916222
2025-12-31T16:21:48+08:003.7779102604330093
2025-12-31T16:21:59+08:003.786507687480389
2025-12-31T16:22:01+08:003.7957954188892375
2025-12-31T16:22:05+08:003.816379039849388
2025-12-31T16:22:08+08:003.9544399121430813
2025-12-31T16:34:55+08:003.955067461562598
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2025-12-31T17:05:53+08:004.229055538123627
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2025-12-31T18:14:10+08:004.784122999686225
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2025-12-31T20:08:22+08:004.954063382491372
2025-12-31T21:37:32+08:004.95927204267336
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2025-12-31T22:13:15+08:004.96297458424851
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2025-12-31T22:14:16+08:005.314465014119862
2026-01-01T09:20:17+08:005.319422654534044
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2026-01-01T09:26:27+08:005.375525572638845
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2026-01-01T09:28:30+08:005.513586444932538
2026-01-01T10:07:30+08:005.513774709758393
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2026-01-01T13:16:53+08:005.473235017257609
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2026-01-01T16:21:27+08:005.708754314402259
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2026-01-01T16:24:04+08:005.714653278945717
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2026-01-01T18:21:33+08:005.810668340131786
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2026-01-01T20:36:49+08:005.855098839033574
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2026-01-02T08:58:25+08:006.07141512394101
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2026-01-02T10:08:10+08:006.0391590837778475
2026-01-02T10:08:13+08:006.29645434577973
2026-01-02T11:18:42+08:006.344336366488861
2026-01-02T11:19:50+08:006.345528710385943
2026-01-02T11:22:07+08:006.345591465327894
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2026-01-02T12:12:17+08:006.865641669281456
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2026-01-02T12:14:31+08:006.886476310009413
2026-01-02T12:15:37+08:007.639535613429557
2026-01-02T13:51:00+08:007.638343269532475
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2026-01-02T14:05:52+08:007.8803890806401
2026-01-02T14:07:00+08:007.941449639159083
2026-01-02T14:10:16+08:007.943081267649827
2026-01-02T14:11:27+08:008.118795105114527
2026-01-02T14:13:00+08:008.79215563225604
2026-01-02T15:28:07+08:008.793159711327267
2026-01-02T15:29:29+08:008.823658613115782
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2026-01-02T15:31:07+08:009.448133040476938
2026-01-02T15:32:04+08:009.474741135864448
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2026-01-02T17:33:47+08:0011.414433636648885
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2026-01-02T20:52:50+08:0011.54879196736743
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2026-01-02T22:23:33+08:0012.442296830875431
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2026-01-02T22:24:47+08:0012.616943834326953
2026-01-03T08:41:34+08:0012.616881079385001
2026-01-03T08:44:41+08:0012.615877000313775
2026-01-03T08:45:29+08:0012.589268904926262
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2026-01-03T08:46:49+08:0012.294320677753372
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2026-01-03T10:47:13+08:0012.319359899592094
2026-01-03T10:48:04+08:0012.41531220583621
2026-01-03T10:48:49+08:0012.496893630373393
2026-01-03T10:49:15+08:0012.521995607154063
2026-01-03T13:35:50+08:0012.54615625980546
2026-01-03T13:36:42+08:0012.54992155632256
2026-01-03T13:37:49+08:0012.630812676498275
2026-01-03T13:39:06+08:0013.095199246940696
2026-01-03T13:39:40+08:0013.164229683087543
2026-01-03T16:50:14+08:0013.164543457797302
2026-01-03T16:50:33+08:0013.174144963915909
2026-01-03T16:52:03+08:0013.300470662064638
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2026-01-03T16:53:45+08:0013.601694383432696
2026-01-03T19:04:03+08:0013.603639786633197
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2026-01-03T19:07:15+08:0014.287229369312833
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捷利預測倍數
時間倍數
券商孖展資金走勢
時間券商孖展資金
預測模型 一手期望中籤手數— 期望中籤1手所需手數—
倍數推導
近期首日表現
+4.6%
→
參與人數
18,911
→
人均手數
49.5
→
認購倍數
68x
68x = 18,911 × 49.5 ÷ 13,744 孖展加權 100% → 85.7x
1x6275.0x
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.59
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.69
此模型不適用分配手法調節

實際 vs 預測 對比

以實際認購倍數 101.06x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.590, 乙組 α=0.690) 為基準,對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數

申購手數 認購金額(HKD) 實際期望中籤 預測期望中籤 偏差

標誌瑞博生物-B中籤預測矩陣

行為申購檔位,列為不同認購倍數,數值為期望中籤手數,綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手;非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。

發售機制說明

機制B

《第18項應用指引》下的靈活發售機制。最低初訂分配份額爲發售股份的10%,不設回補機制。最高初訂分配份額爲發售股份的60%(因《第18項應用指引》規定發售股份總數至少40%須分配予配售部分投資者,基石投資者除外)。發行人可根據發售結構、市場狀況及散戶投資者利益,自行釐定公開認購部分的初訂分配份額。

分配手法係數 α

α 為發行人分配偏好係數,描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——無論申購多少手,每位中籤者獲配股數相同。對散戶(小單申購)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——獲配股數與申購手數成正比。對大額申購更有利。
  • 歷史實際 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3–0.9,乙組 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差異較大,反映發行人各自的分配策略。
中籤率定義

本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致:中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑,與其他網站可能使用的不同定義(如「申購人數中籤比例」)有本質區別。

期望中籤手數

期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數

例:某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

關於本頁

本頁展示 瑞博生物-B(06938)的中籤預測:基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導,公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數;其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準,再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準;隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權;臨近截止(進度約九成後)默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配,估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數,並結合分配手法係數 α(人均分配至比例分配)給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α,覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測,查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源:港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告;孖展數據(孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細)來自捷利交易寶(TradeGo),倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商,捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新;中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中籤率預測、中籤畫像與入通分析