孖展動態 孖展倍數100.88x 孖展資金231.8億 捷利預測倍數135.18x
排名 券商 孖展資金
1 富途证券富途 117.2億
2 辉立证券辉立 68.0億
3 老虎国际老虎 19.8億
4 华泰国际华泰 7.9億
5 盈立证券盈立 3.5億
6 致富证券致富 3.3億
7 华盛证券华盛 3.0億
8 复星国际复星 2.6億
9 信诚证券信诚 2.0億
孖展倍數
時間倍數
2026-06-29T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-29T10:11:58+08:000.0017410228509249185
2026-06-29T10:12:04+08:000.0026115342763873774
2026-06-29T11:01:22+08:000.03281828073993471
2026-06-29T11:02:08+08:000.03294885745375408
2026-06-29T11:04:45+08:000.05632208922742111
2026-06-29T11:05:55+08:000.06324265505984766
2026-06-29T11:07:20+08:000.3548639825897715
2026-06-29T11:41:55+08:000.38620239390642
2026-06-29T12:15:46+08:000.4347334058759521
2026-06-29T12:16:27+08:000.4401305767138194
2026-06-29T12:17:46+08:000.4621980413492927
2026-06-29T12:18:35+08:000.4713819368879216
2026-06-29T12:19:10+08:000.5801958650707291
2026-06-29T13:41:19+08:000.5831120783460283
2026-06-29T13:42:46+08:000.702981501632209
2026-06-29T13:44:00+08:000.7072034820457018
2026-06-29T13:44:52+08:000.7183460282916213
2026-06-29T13:45:38+08:000.8445701849836779
2026-06-29T14:01:46+08:000.8473558215451578
2026-06-29T14:05:05+08:000.8515778019586507
2026-06-29T14:05:48+08:000.8691621327529924
2026-06-29T14:07:10+08:000.8727747551686615
2026-06-29T14:08:29+08:001.0338193688792165
2026-06-29T14:11:36+08:001.1960391730141458
2026-06-29T14:58:12+08:001.4136670293797606
2026-06-29T15:00:26+08:001.418063112078346
2026-06-29T15:01:45+08:001.4275516866158868
2026-06-29T15:04:23+08:001.4434820457018498
2026-06-29T15:05:46+08:001.5481610446137106
2026-06-29T15:07:07+08:001.6917954298150164
2026-06-29T16:01:39+08:001.9014145810663765
2026-06-29T16:03:22+08:001.9149945593035909
2026-06-29T16:04:49+08:001.9818063112078346
2026-06-29T16:09:12+08:001.977366702937976
2026-06-29T16:11:59+08:002.2341675734494015
2026-06-29T16:12:55+08:002.255930359085963
2026-06-29T17:08:01+08:002.2691186071817193
2026-06-29T17:08:49+08:002.3459847660500546
2026-06-29T17:10:07+08:002.417410228509249
2026-06-29T17:11:21+08:002.456887921653972
2026-06-29T17:12:23+08:002.957431991294886
2026-06-29T18:00:59+08:003.740892274211099
2026-06-29T18:02:48+08:003.8678563656147986
2026-06-29T18:04:34+08:003.964613710554951
2026-06-29T18:06:36+08:003.9822415669205657
2026-06-29T18:08:06+08:003.9852013057671383
2026-06-29T18:08:42+08:004.403046789989118
2026-06-29T18:13:13+08:004.490359085963004
2026-06-29T20:27:57+08:004.480609357997824
2026-06-29T20:29:12+08:004.50341675734494
2026-06-29T20:31:03+08:004.5357562568008705
2026-06-29T20:37:56+08:004.570272034820457
2026-06-29T20:41:46+08:005.0142328618063114
2026-06-29T21:09:35+08:005.045048966267682
2026-06-29T22:08:10+08:005.223329706202394
2026-06-29T22:09:14+08:005.2267247007616975
2026-06-29T22:10:05+08:005.479173014145811
2026-06-30T09:08:01+08:005.622763873775844
2026-06-30T09:10:54+08:005.626376496191512
2026-06-30T09:10:57+08:005.748726877040261
2026-06-30T09:11:01+08:005.7845048966267685
2026-06-30T09:12:49+08:006.798650707290533
2026-06-30T09:12:53+08:006.82689880304679
2026-06-30T09:12:58+08:007.444961915125136
2026-06-30T09:15:59+08:007.487181719260065
2026-06-30T09:17:56+08:007.487181719260065
2026-06-30T10:24:05+08:007.500239390642002
2026-06-30T10:24:10+08:007.535103373231774
2026-06-30T10:24:21+08:007.537323177366703
2026-06-30T10:24:32+08:007.727573449401524
2026-06-30T10:24:38+08:007.734102285092492
2026-06-30T10:24:56+08:007.76892274211099
2026-06-30T11:13:48+08:007.76069640914037
2026-06-30T11:13:53+08:007.759651795429815
2026-06-30T11:14:05+08:007.780718171926006
2026-06-30T11:14:11+08:007.99316648531012
2026-06-30T11:14:32+08:008.615582154515778
2026-06-30T11:48:19+08:008.812752992383025
2026-06-30T12:14:09+08:008.836082698585418
2026-06-30T12:18:54+08:008.94746463547334
2026-06-30T12:21:45+08:008.977236126224156
2026-06-30T12:23:58+08:008.977801958650707
2026-06-30T12:27:08+08:008.973449401523395
2026-06-30T14:03:21+08:008.976931447225246
2026-06-30T14:03:24+08:008.983068552774755
2026-06-30T14:08:17+08:008.984287268770403
2026-06-30T14:08:19+08:008.987377584330794
2026-06-30T14:13:30+08:009.010620239390642
2026-06-30T14:13:32+08:009.024504896626768
2026-06-30T14:17:36+08:009.029379760609357
2026-06-30T14:17:38+08:009.030076169749728
2026-06-30T14:19:24+08:009.191120783460283
2026-06-30T14:19:27+08:009.965875952121872
2026-06-30T14:29:48+08:0010.467421109902068
2026-06-30T15:03:54+08:0010.526093579978237
2026-06-30T15:06:06+08:0010.564396082698586
2026-06-30T15:08:54+08:0010.54911860718172
2026-06-30T15:10:37+08:0010.827682263329706
2026-06-30T15:17:06+08:0010.850054406964091
2026-06-30T15:19:12+08:0011.502937976060936
2026-06-30T16:28:48+08:0011.534319912948858
2026-06-30T16:32:43+08:0011.591425462459195
2026-06-30T16:37:29+08:0011.619804134929272
2026-06-30T16:40:11+08:0011.645353645266594
2026-06-30T16:41:21+08:0013.538715995647443
2026-06-30T17:06:39+08:0013.535669205658325
2026-06-30T17:08:47+08:0013.55677910772579
2026-06-30T17:11:33+08:0013.550293797606093
2026-06-30T17:14:40+08:0013.637344940152339
2026-06-30T17:17:29+08:0014.046485310119696
2026-06-30T17:49:19+08:0015.656931447225245
2026-06-30T18:05:27+08:0015.850359085963003
2026-06-30T18:11:59+08:0015.9078563656148
2026-06-30T18:16:52+08:0015.917475516866158
2026-06-30T18:20:39+08:0015.937018498367792
2026-06-30T18:24:23+08:0015.946594124047879
2026-06-30T18:25:27+08:0016.068465723612622
2026-06-30T18:27:11+08:0016.19904243743199
2026-06-30T20:08:27+08:0016.236387377584332
2026-06-30T20:13:46+08:0016.23538628944505
2026-06-30T20:14:57+08:0016.25627856365615
2026-06-30T20:16:52+08:0016.261414581066376
2026-06-30T20:18:56+08:0016.888182807399346
2026-06-30T21:59:58+08:0016.895973884657238
2026-06-30T22:06:45+08:0016.90411316648531
2026-06-30T22:08:17+08:0016.865593035908596
2026-06-30T22:10:29+08:0017.122393906420022
2026-07-01T08:45:26+08:0017.113427638737758
2026-07-01T08:45:29+08:0017.266550598476606
2026-07-01T08:57:28+08:0018.711599564744287
2026-07-01T09:01:49+08:0018.711599564744287
2026-07-01T09:05:55+08:0018.758258977149076
2026-07-01T09:10:24+08:0018.822763873775845
2026-07-01T09:12:50+08:0018.82742110990207
2026-07-01T09:14:15+08:0018.853536452665942
2026-07-01T09:18:11+08:0018.897410228509248
2026-07-01T09:19:43+08:0018.967051142546246
2026-07-01T09:23:28+08:0019.079782372143633
2026-07-01T10:18:01+08:0019.11251360174102
2026-07-01T10:21:58+08:0019.17575625680087
2026-07-01T10:24:45+08:0019.18789989118607
2026-07-01T10:26:11+08:0019.379412404787814
2026-07-01T10:28:25+08:0019.384853101196953
2026-07-01T11:08:50+08:0019.428248095756256
2026-07-01T11:10:18+08:0019.43373231773667
2026-07-01T11:13:17+08:0019.425027203482045
2026-07-01T11:16:28+08:0019.44165397170838
2026-07-01T11:19:55+08:0019.49823721436344
2026-07-01T12:13:32+08:0019.48905331882481
2026-07-01T12:16:25+08:0019.499978237214364
2026-07-01T12:17:53+08:0019.528661588683352
2026-07-01T12:20:09+08:0019.53379760609358
2026-07-01T12:21:33+08:0020.191033732317738
2026-07-01T14:10:25+08:0020.198084874863984
2026-07-01T14:10:27+08:0020.21919477693145
2026-07-01T14:16:14+08:0020.219412404787814
2026-07-01T14:16:17+08:0020.21048966267682
2026-07-01T14:17:58+08:0020.67621327529924
2026-07-01T14:18:01+08:0020.880783460282917
2026-07-01T14:22:46+08:0020.895364526659414
2026-07-01T14:22:49+08:0020.895712731229597
2026-07-01T14:26:39+08:0020.903939064200216
2026-07-01T14:26:42+08:0020.919173014145812
2026-07-01T14:30:29+08:0020.995168661588682
2026-07-01T15:09:30+08:0020.980935799782372
2026-07-01T15:12:47+08:0021.025418933623502
2026-07-01T15:15:42+08:0020.844134929270947
2026-07-01T15:17:58+08:0020.859586507072905
2026-07-01T15:19:38+08:0021.06415669205658
2026-07-01T16:15:12+08:0021.07455930359086
2026-07-01T16:17:51+08:0021.08391730141458
2026-07-01T16:20:30+08:0021.101501632208922
2026-07-01T16:22:22+08:0021.432295973884656
2026-07-01T16:24:06+08:0021.43499455930359
2026-07-01T17:02:08+08:0021.56557127312296
2026-07-01T17:04:09+08:0021.62119695321001
2026-07-01T17:06:44+08:0021.68165397170838
2026-07-01T17:09:43+08:0021.69001088139282
2026-07-01T17:10:44+08:0021.981632208922743
2026-07-01T17:12:34+08:0021.99373231773667
2026-07-01T18:02:07+08:0022.033514689880306
2026-07-01T18:04:54+08:0022.0359521218716
2026-07-01T18:08:06+08:0021.998563656147986
2026-07-01T18:09:27+08:0022.055146898803045
2026-07-01T18:10:58+08:0022.06158868335147
2026-07-01T18:17:37+08:0022.101371055495104
2026-07-01T20:55:01+08:0022.12670293797606
2026-07-01T20:58:03+08:0022.155603917301416
2026-07-01T20:59:36+08:0022.140935799782373
2026-07-01T21:01:38+08:0022.99403699673558
2026-07-01T21:03:42+08:0023.033819368879218
2026-07-01T22:06:11+08:0023.08278563656148
2026-07-01T22:09:51+08:0023.27334058759521
2026-07-01T22:14:31+08:0023.3038084874864
2026-07-02T08:43:28+08:0023.310511425462458
2026-07-02T08:43:31+08:0023.51038084874864
2026-07-02T08:52:37+08:0024.34171926006529
2026-07-02T08:59:38+08:0024.34171926006529
2026-07-02T09:12:49+08:0024.400087051142545
2026-07-02T09:18:50+08:0024.468204570184984
2026-07-02T09:27:15+08:0024.468378672470077
2026-07-02T09:29:20+08:0024.567834602829162
2026-07-02T09:33:29+08:0024.90298150163221
2026-07-02T09:50:59+08:0025.05379760609358
2026-07-02T10:14:14+08:0025.056539717083787
2026-07-02T10:17:22+08:0025.08783460282916
2026-07-02T10:19:33+08:0025.08683351468988
2026-07-02T10:21:43+08:0025.120087051142548
2026-07-02T10:25:58+08:0025.594515778019588
2026-07-02T11:10:17+08:0025.557257889009794
2026-07-02T11:14:17+08:0025.60818280739935
2026-07-02T11:15:34+08:0026.36552774755169
2026-07-02T11:17:20+08:0026.35151251360174
2026-07-02T11:19:07+08:0026.322306855277475
2026-07-02T12:11:26+08:0026.349771490750815
2026-07-02T12:17:10+08:0026.393645266594124
2026-07-02T12:20:34+08:0026.441305767138193
2026-07-02T12:21:32+08:0027.53379760609358
2026-07-02T12:24:11+08:0027.558563656147985
2026-07-02T14:09:55+08:0027.564004352557127
2026-07-02T14:09:58+08:0027.565788900979324
2026-07-02T14:14:16+08:0027.67599564744287
2026-07-02T14:14:19+08:0027.78885745375408
2026-07-02T14:18:37+08:0027.82354733405876
2026-07-02T14:18:42+08:0027.83468988030468
2026-07-02T14:25:08+08:0027.843046789989117
2026-07-02T14:25:14+08:0028.596039173014145
2026-07-02T14:25:17+08:0028.62803046789989
2026-07-02T14:25:20+08:0029.17210010881393
2026-07-02T14:36:06+08:0029.430163220892275
2026-07-02T15:00:59+08:0029.4336887921654
2026-07-02T15:03:34+08:0029.463199129488576
2026-07-02T15:06:55+08:0029.597431991294886
2026-07-02T15:11:34+08:0029.62759521218716
2026-07-02T15:13:40+08:0031.098759521218717
2026-07-02T16:05:34+08:0031.34385201305767
2026-07-02T16:07:49+08:0031.40918389553863
2026-07-02T16:10:51+08:0031.460152339499455
2026-07-02T16:12:14+08:0032.256670293797605
2026-07-02T16:14:55+08:0032.28683351468988
2026-07-02T17:04:47+08:0032.34084874863983
2026-07-02T17:06:36+08:0032.38128400435256
2026-07-02T17:09:01+08:0032.52587595212187
2026-07-02T17:11:47+08:0032.56452665941241
2026-07-02T17:14:10+08:0033.47421109902067
2026-07-02T17:15:26+08:0033.79630032644179
2026-07-02T17:52:33+08:0038.36648531011969
2026-07-02T18:08:39+08:0038.6213710554951
2026-07-02T18:17:07+08:0038.6485745375408
2026-07-02T18:19:00+08:0038.65031556039173
2026-07-02T18:21:10+08:0038.76013057671382
2026-07-02T18:22:19+08:0038.781196953210014
2026-07-02T18:23:41+08:0039.75616974972797
2026-07-02T20:41:26+08:0039.7750598476605
2026-07-02T20:44:06+08:0039.824635473340585
2026-07-02T20:46:22+08:0039.87390642002176
2026-07-02T20:49:26+08:0040.15778019586507
2026-07-02T20:51:38+08:0041.45048966267682
2026-07-02T21:50:27+08:0041.49048966267682
2026-07-02T22:06:35+08:0041.611186071817194
2026-07-02T22:09:38+08:0042.534058759521216
2026-07-02T22:11:39+08:0045.789771490750816
2026-07-03T08:41:01+08:0046.46620239390642
2026-07-03T08:41:04+08:0048.72230685527747
2026-07-03T08:46:37+08:0048.72230685527747
2026-07-03T08:48:49+08:0061.536235038084875
2026-07-03T09:01:20+08:0061.92796517954298
2026-07-03T09:07:19+08:0062.081566920565834
2026-07-03T09:10:14+08:0062.512383025027205
2026-07-03T09:12:30+08:0063.064591947769316
2026-07-03T09:14:56+08:0066.12443960826985
2026-07-03T09:18:46+08:0067.73297062023939
2026-07-03T10:16:48+08:0068.41771490750816
2026-07-03T10:20:51+08:0075.76047878128401
2026-07-03T10:27:23+08:0075.84117519042438
2026-07-03T11:13:52+08:0076.29227421109903
2026-07-03T11:21:10+08:00100.88
捷利預測倍數
時間倍數
券商孖展資金走勢
時間券商孖展資金
預測模型 一手期望中籤手數— 期望中籤1手所需手數—
倍數推導
近期首日表現
+4.6%
→
參與人數
21,477
→
人均手數
74.7
→
認購倍數
31x
31x = 21,477 × 74.7 ÷ 52,264 孖展加權 100% → 135.2x
1x4352.0x
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.52
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.62
此模型不適用分配手法調節

實際 vs 預測 對比

以實際認購倍數 157.82x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.518, 乙組 α=0.618) 為基準,對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數

申購手數 認購金額(HKD) 實際期望中籤 預測期望中籤 偏差

標誌易控智驾中籤預測矩陣

行為申購檔位,列為不同認購倍數,數值為期望中籤手數,綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手;非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。

發售機制說明

機制B

《第18項應用指引》下的靈活發售機制。最低初訂分配份額爲發售股份的10%,不設回補機制。最高初訂分配份額爲發售股份的60%(因《第18項應用指引》規定發售股份總數至少40%須分配予配售部分投資者,基石投資者除外)。發行人可根據發售結構、市場狀況及散戶投資者利益,自行釐定公開認購部分的初訂分配份額。

分配手法係數 α

α 為發行人分配偏好係數,描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——無論申購多少手,每位中籤者獲配股數相同。對散戶(小單申購)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——獲配股數與申購手數成正比。對大額申購更有利。
  • 歷史實際 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3–0.9,乙組 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差異較大,反映發行人各自的分配策略。
中籤率定義

本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致:中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑,與其他網站可能使用的不同定義(如「申購人數中籤比例」)有本質區別。

期望中籤手數

期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數

例:某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

關於本頁

本頁展示 易控智驾(07687)的中籤預測:基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導,公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數;其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準,再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準;隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權;臨近截止(進度約九成後)默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配,估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數,並結合分配手法係數 α(人均分配至比例分配)給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α,覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測,查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源:港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告;孖展數據(孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細)來自捷利交易寶(TradeGo),倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商,捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新;中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中籤率預測、中籤畫像與入通分析