彤程新材 09607香港交易所新股中籤預測

36.8000.27%( +0.100 )
11月13日 · 收市數據，非即時 · 香港交易所
基於相似IPO匹配的期望中籤預測
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孖展動態 孖展倍數2.33x 孖展資金7.0億 捷利預測倍數3.93x
排名 券商 孖展資金
1 富途证券富途 3.6億
2 辉立证券辉立 8800萬
3 老虎国际老虎 7388萬
4 盈立证券盈立 4104萬
5 致富证券致富 3426萬
6 复星国际复星 2909萬
7 华泰国际华泰 2382萬
8 信诚证券信诚 2000萬
10 长桥证券长桥 1379萬
11 兴证国际兴证 652萬
12 华盛证券华盛 550萬
13 艾德证券艾德 220萬
14 熊猫证券熊猫 110萬
15 东证国际东证 88萬
16 盈宝证券盈宝 18萬
17 TradeGo MarketsTradeGo 1萬
孖展倍數
時間倍數
2026-09-21T06:00:00+08:000
2026-09-21T10:13:42+08:000.007607099959962632
2026-09-21T10:13:49+08:000.008841585479781129
2026-09-21T10:13:56+08:000.01
2026-09-21T11:07:48+08:000.026891765647938076
2026-09-21T11:07:54+08:000.04157213399172561
2026-09-21T11:08:01+08:000.04344054450820766
2026-09-21T11:08:08+08:000.05825437074602963
2026-09-21T11:08:14+08:000.14
2026-09-21T11:44:46+08:000.15
2026-09-21T12:15:52+08:000.15481115707994128
2026-09-21T12:15:55+08:000.15684638996396638
2026-09-21T12:15:57+08:000.16301881756305886
2026-09-21T12:16:00+08:000.16331909782463633
2026-09-21T12:16:03+08:000.17085946883758174
2026-09-21T12:16:06+08:000.52
2026-09-21T13:49:49+08:000.5212198051514747
2026-09-21T13:50:10+08:000.5214199919925263
2026-09-21T13:50:44+08:000.5224876551448018
2026-09-21T13:50:47+08:000.5231883090884826
2026-09-21T13:50:50+08:000.5236554117176031
2026-09-21T13:50:52+08:000.5252235419725076
2026-09-21T13:50:55+08:000.52
2026-09-21T14:12:52+08:000.5267583077539036
2026-09-21T14:12:55+08:000.527158681436007
2026-09-21T14:12:58+08:000.528259709061791
2026-09-21T14:13:02+08:000.5290604564259976
2026-09-21T14:13:04+08:000.5292272787935406
2026-09-21T14:13:07+08:000.4825170158814894
2026-09-21T14:14:43+08:000.48
2026-09-21T15:07:42+08:000.49813158948351793
2026-09-21T15:07:45+08:000.4998999065794742
2026-09-21T15:07:47+08:000.49679701054317366
2026-09-21T15:07:50+08:000.49719738422527693
2026-09-21T15:07:52+08:000.49786467369544907
2026-09-21T15:07:55+08:000.52
2026-09-21T16:09:56+08:000.5332310156145736
2026-09-21T16:09:59+08:000.5360669958628053
2026-09-21T16:10:02+08:000.5369344721740291
2026-09-21T16:10:05+08:000.5393367142666489
2026-09-21T16:10:07+08:000.5395035366341919
2026-09-21T16:10:10+08:000.5428399839850527
2026-09-21T16:14:22+08:000.55
2026-09-21T17:14:21+08:000.5624249299346056
2026-09-21T17:14:24+08:000.5683638062191378
2026-09-21T17:14:27+08:000.5704324035766716
2026-09-21T17:14:29+08:000.5722340851461364
2026-09-21T17:14:32+08:000.572267449619645
2026-09-21T17:14:34+08:000.6356599492860002
2026-09-21T17:17:35+08:001.3
2026-09-21T18:04:01+08:001.3345122113973042
2026-09-21T18:06:57+08:001.3364139863872948
2026-09-21T18:07:25+08:001.3365808087548379
2026-09-21T18:07:49+08:001.3367809955958896
2026-09-21T18:07:54+08:001.3373815561190445
2026-09-21T18:08:32+08:001.337414920592553
2026-09-21T18:08:51+08:001.4
2026-09-21T20:42:22+08:001.3994061123715469
2026-09-21T20:42:58+08:001.4001734952622447
2026-09-21T20:44:55+08:001.4311023622047243
2026-09-21T20:45:03+08:001.4325703990391032
2026-09-21T20:45:53+08:001.4492526357934072
2026-09-21T21:13:50+08:001.4511210463098891
2026-09-21T21:14:10+08:001.451654877886027
2026-09-21T21:14:14+08:001.452322167356199
2026-09-21T21:14:44+08:001.51
2026-09-21T22:10:04+08:001.5156813025490459
2026-09-21T22:10:09+08:001.5160483117576404
2026-09-21T22:10:56+08:001.52
2026-09-22T08:44:46+08:001.5387361537434938
2026-09-22T08:44:49+08:001.5612571733618044
2026-09-22T08:44:55+08:001.671359935940211
2026-09-22T08:45:12+08:001.671359935940211
2026-09-22T09:02:27+08:001.679100493794208
2026-09-22T09:02:45+08:001.6816695582543708
2026-09-22T09:03:25+08:001.6836380621913787
2026-09-22T09:03:27+08:001.6860403042839984
2026-09-22T09:28:22+08:001.69
2026-09-22T10:07:13+08:001.7008207660483117
2026-09-22T10:08:27+08:001.7025557186707594
2026-09-22T10:10:12+08:001.7172360870145469
2026-09-22T10:10:21+08:001.7186707593754171
2026-09-22T10:10:56+08:001.7787268116909116
2026-09-22T10:10:59+08:001.786867743227012
2026-09-22T10:11:02+08:001.7974442813292406
2026-09-22T10:11:04+08:001.8
2026-09-22T11:10:25+08:001.8063859602295476
2026-09-22T11:10:29+08:001.8120245562525024
2026-09-22T11:10:32+08:001.8317763245695984
2026-09-22T11:10:35+08:001.8343120245562525
2026-09-22T11:10:41+08:001.8350460429734419
2026-09-22T11:10:44+08:001.89
2026-09-22T12:02:59+08:001.894201254504204
2026-09-22T12:04:00+08:001.8956025623915655
2026-09-22T12:04:24+08:001.9064126518083544
2026-09-22T12:04:32+08:001.9144201254504203
2026-09-22T12:05:20+08:001.9149539570265581
2026-09-22T12:05:33+08:001.93
2026-09-22T13:48:04+08:001.9269318030161484
2026-09-22T13:48:07+08:001.9569598291738957
2026-09-22T13:48:13+08:001.9969971973842253
2026-09-22T13:48:16+08:001.9972307486987855
2026-09-22T13:48:21+08:001.9981983184305352
2026-09-22T13:48:24+08:002.0
2026-09-22T14:17:31+08:002.000166822367543
2026-09-22T14:17:34+08:002.000266915788069
2026-09-22T14:17:37+08:001.9967302815961565
2026-09-22T14:17:40+08:001.999065794741759
2026-09-22T14:17:43+08:001.999833177632457
2026-09-22T14:19:02+08:002.0
2026-09-22T15:06:29+08:002.008608034165221
2026-09-22T15:08:32+08:002.009608968370479
2026-09-22T15:08:34+08:002.010142799946617
2026-09-22T15:08:37+08:002.010109435473108
2026-09-22T15:08:39+08:002.0118443880955557
2026-09-22T15:08:42+08:002.0120112104630987
2026-09-22T15:08:46+08:001.99
2026-09-22T16:03:53+08:001.9932270118777526
2026-09-22T16:04:23+08:001.993860936874416
2026-09-22T16:04:45+08:001.9944281329240625
2026-09-22T16:05:20+08:001.994895235553183
2026-09-22T16:06:16+08:002.0
2026-09-22T17:11:58+08:001.997797944748432
2026-09-22T17:12:01+08:002.0011677565728014
2026-09-22T17:12:03+08:002.0009008407847326
2026-09-22T17:13:56+08:002.0
2026-09-22T17:41:02+08:002.04
2026-09-22T18:05:40+08:002.0341985853463234
2026-09-22T18:07:06+08:002.0360669958628055
2026-09-22T18:08:10+08:002.045108768183638
2026-09-22T18:08:48+08:002.075136794341385
2026-09-22T18:10:22+08:002.1
2026-09-22T20:45:20+08:002.102662484985987
2026-09-22T20:45:57+08:002.1029294007740558
2026-09-22T20:46:20+08:002.1042639797144003
2026-09-22T20:47:05+08:002.1042973441879087
2026-09-22T20:47:57+08:002.1044641665554518
2026-09-22T20:48:54+08:002.12
2026-09-22T21:11:55+08:002.121480048044842
2026-09-22T21:13:02+08:001.98
2026-09-22T22:10:29+08:001.975143467236087
2026-09-22T22:10:38+08:001.976077672494328
2026-09-22T22:11:28+08:001.98
2026-09-23T08:39:49+08:001.979414119845189
2026-09-23T08:41:36+08:001.98441879087148
2026-09-23T08:41:42+08:001.9912251434672361
2026-09-23T08:41:45+08:002.0279260643267047
2026-09-23T09:06:19+08:002.0358000800747362
2026-09-23T09:08:50+08:002.037368210329641
2026-09-23T09:08:59+08:002.0564860536500733
2026-09-23T09:09:13+08:002.056752969438142
2026-09-23T09:09:27+08:002.146837047911384
2026-09-23T09:10:25+08:002.15
2026-09-23T10:14:22+08:002.1496730281596155
2026-09-23T10:15:15+08:002.150240224209262
2026-09-23T10:15:17+08:002.1507740557853996
2026-09-23T10:15:20+08:002.2182370212198053
2026-09-23T10:15:23+08:002.22
2026-09-23T11:01:44+08:002.2190044041105033
2026-09-23T11:07:51+08:002.165888162284799
2026-09-23T11:07:54+08:002.167089283331109
2026-09-23T11:08:00+08:002.22
2026-09-23T12:23:23+08:002.2213065527825973
2026-09-23T12:23:27+08:002.2319831843053515
2026-09-23T12:23:30+08:002.2395235553182973
2026-09-23T12:23:34+08:002.244461497397571
2026-09-23T12:23:37+08:002.24449486187108
2026-09-23T12:23:42+08:002.2811957827305487
2026-09-23T13:47:39+08:002.283030828773522
2026-09-23T13:47:42+08:002.2840984919257976
2026-09-23T13:47:45+08:002.2899706392633123
2026-09-23T13:47:48+08:002.3066528760176164
2026-09-23T14:00:36+08:002.324803149606299
2026-09-23T14:01:40+08:002.328740157480315
2026-09-23T14:03:46+08:002.3287067930068064
2026-09-23T14:06:17+08:002.3296409982650474
2026-09-23T14:06:20+08:002.330641932470306
2026-09-23T15:22:52+08:002.3326771653543306
2026-09-23T15:22:55+08:002.3369811824369413
2026-09-23T15:22:58+08:002.3377485653276393
2026-09-23T15:23:01+08:002.338782864006406
2026-09-23T15:23:04+08:002.339450153476578
2026-09-23T15:23:07+08:002.369478179634325
2026-09-23T16:08:49+08:002.3746496730281597
2026-09-23T16:08:52+08:002.375316962498332
2026-09-23T16:08:54+08:002.3813892966768986
2026-09-23T16:08:57+08:002.379120512478313
2026-09-23T16:09:01+08:002.412484985986921
2026-09-23T16:45:43+08:002.462531696249833
2026-09-23T17:19:03+08:002.4627318830908846
2026-09-23T17:19:05+08:002.468770852795943
2026-09-23T17:19:08+08:002.47387561724276
2026-09-23T17:19:10+08:002.4753436540771387
2026-09-23T17:19:16+08:002.468670759375417
2026-09-23T18:01:53+08:002.4699719738422528
2026-09-23T18:02:33+08:002.4702388896303216
2026-09-23T18:03:57+08:002.4817162685172827
2026-09-23T18:06:23+08:002.4820165487788604
2026-09-23T18:06:34+08:002.4826171093020153
2026-09-23T20:45:08+08:002.4889229947951423
2026-09-23T20:46:31+08:002.4912585079407448
2026-09-23T20:47:56+08:002.493427198718804
2026-09-23T21:11:10+08:002.493594021086347
2026-09-23T21:11:43+08:002.494661684238623
2026-09-23T21:11:52+08:002.4947617776591486
2026-09-23T22:04:49+08:002.5247230748698786
2026-09-23T22:04:58+08:002.526324569598292
2026-09-23T22:05:55+08:002.5463432537034567
2026-09-24T08:29:34+08:002.5463432537034567
2026-09-24T08:31:23+08:002.5471773655411716
2026-09-24T08:31:26+08:002.575170158814894
2026-09-24T08:31:29+08:002.595188842920059
2026-09-24T09:02:17+08:002.6117709862538367
2026-09-24T09:04:26+08:002.614239957293474
2026-09-24T09:06:32+08:002.616608834912585
2026-09-24T09:07:18+08:002.6120712665154144
2026-09-24T09:07:50+08:002.6287535032697185
2026-09-24T10:09:47+08:002.6546109702388896
2026-09-24T10:09:50+08:002.6553116241825703
2026-09-24T10:09:53+08:002.74
2026-09-24T11:06:21+08:002.74
2026-09-24T11:37:37+08:002.33
2026-09-24T17:40:41+08:002.33
捷利預測倍數
時間倍數
2026-09-21T06:00:00+08:000
2026-09-21T10:13:56+08:000.02
2026-09-21T11:08:14+08:000.32
2026-09-21T11:44:46+08:000.33
2026-09-21T12:16:06+08:001.15
2026-09-21T13:50:55+08:001.16
2026-09-21T14:14:43+08:001.06
2026-09-21T15:07:55+08:001.16
2026-09-21T16:14:22+08:001.23
2026-09-21T17:17:35+08:002.18
2026-09-21T18:08:51+08:002.35
2026-09-21T21:14:44+08:002.54
2026-09-21T22:10:56+08:002.56
2026-09-22T09:28:22+08:002.84
2026-09-22T10:11:04+08:003.02
2026-09-22T11:10:44+08:003.18
2026-09-22T12:05:33+08:003.24
2026-09-22T13:48:24+08:003.36
2026-09-22T14:19:02+08:003.37
2026-09-22T15:08:46+08:003.35
2026-09-22T16:06:16+08:003.36
2026-09-22T17:13:56+08:003.37
2026-09-22T17:41:02+08:003.42
2026-09-22T18:10:22+08:003.53
2026-09-22T20:48:54+08:003.57
2026-09-22T21:13:02+08:003.32
2026-09-22T22:11:28+08:003.33
2026-09-23T09:10:25+08:003.62
2026-09-23T10:15:23+08:003.73
2026-09-23T11:08:00+08:003.74
2026-09-24T10:09:53+08:004.61
2026-09-24T11:06:21+08:004.61
2026-09-24T11:37:37+08:003.93
2026-09-24T17:40:41+08:003.93
券商孖展資金走勢
時間券商孖展資金
2026-09-21T06:00:00+08:00富途证券0
2026-09-21T11:08:14+08:00富途证券27000000.0
2026-09-21T12:16:06+08:00富途证券132000000.0
2026-09-21T14:13:07+08:00富途证券118000000.0
2026-09-21T15:07:55+08:00富途证券127000000.0
2026-09-21T16:10:10+08:00富途证券128000000.0
2026-09-21T17:14:34+08:00富途证券147000000.0
2026-09-21T18:08:51+08:00富途证券165000000.0
2026-09-21T20:45:53+08:00富途证券170000000.0
2026-09-21T21:14:44+08:00富途证券188000000.0
2026-09-21T22:10:56+08:00富途证券190000000.0
2026-09-22T08:44:55+08:00富途证券223000000.0
2026-09-22T09:28:22+08:00富途证券223000000.0
2026-09-22T10:10:56+08:00富途证券241000000.0
2026-09-22T10:11:04+08:00富途证券241000000.0
2026-09-22T11:10:44+08:00富途证券257000000.0
2026-09-22T12:05:33+08:00富途证券260000000.0
2026-09-22T13:48:07+08:00富途证券269000000.0
2026-09-22T13:48:24+08:00富途证券269000000.0
2026-09-22T14:19:02+08:00富途证券269000000.0
2026-09-22T15:08:46+08:00富途证券263000000.0
2026-09-22T16:06:16+08:00富途证券263000000.0
2026-09-22T17:13:56+08:00富途证券263000000.0
2026-09-22T17:41:02+08:00富途证券263000000.0
2026-09-22T18:08:48+08:00富途证券272000000.0
2026-09-22T18:10:22+08:00富途证券272000000.0
2026-09-22T20:48:54+08:00富途证券277000000.0
2026-09-22T21:13:02+08:00富途证券233000000.0
2026-09-22T22:11:28+08:00富途证券234000000.0
2026-09-23T08:41:45+08:00富途证券245000000.0
2026-09-23T09:09:27+08:00富途证券272000000.0
2026-09-23T09:10:25+08:00富途证券272000000.0
2026-09-23T10:15:23+08:00富途证券272000000.0
2026-09-23T11:08:00+08:00富途证券288000000.0
2026-09-23T12:23:42+08:00富途证券299000000.0
2026-09-23T13:47:48+08:00富途证券304000000.0
2026-09-23T15:23:07+08:00富途证券313000000.0
2026-09-23T16:09:01+08:00富途证券323000000.0
2026-09-23T17:19:16+08:00富途证券321000000.0
2026-09-23T22:05:55+08:00富途证券327000000.0
2026-09-24T08:31:29+08:00富途证券333000000.0
2026-09-24T09:07:50+08:00富途证券338000000.0
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預測模型 一手期望中籤手數— 期望中籤1手所需手數—
倍數推導
近期首日表現
+4.6%
→
參與人數
15,548
→
人均手數
42.6
→
認購倍數
10x
10x = 15,548 × 42.6 ÷ 68,119 A+H二次上市 · 參與×0.44 H股折價 45.0% 孖展加權 100% → 3.9x
1x3336.0x
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數，與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多，獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間（P10–P90）：甲組 0.3 – 0.9，乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.61
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數，與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多，獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間（P10–P90）：甲組 0.3 – 0.9，乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.71
此模型不適用分配手法調節

實際 vs 預測 對比

以實際認購倍數 3.39x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.608, 乙組 α=0.708) 為基準，對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數

申購手數 認購金額(HKD) 實際期望中籤 預測期望中籤 偏差

標誌彤程新材中籤預測矩陣

行為申購檔位，列為不同認購倍數，數值為期望中籤手數，綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手；非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。

發售機制說明

機制B

《第18項應用指引》下的靈活發售機制。最低初訂分配份額爲發售股份的10%，不設回補機制。最高初訂分配份額爲發售股份的60%（因《第18項應用指引》規定發售股份總數至少40%須分配予配售部分投資者，基石投資者除外）。發行人可根據發售結構、市場狀況及散戶投資者利益，自行釐定公開認購部分的初訂分配份額。

分配手法係數 α

α 為發行人分配偏好係數，描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0：人均分配——無論申購多少手，每位中籤者獲配股數相同。對散戶（小單申購）更有利。
  • α → 1：比例分配——獲配股數與申購手數成正比。對大額申購更有利。
  • 歷史實際 α 區間（P10–P90）：甲組 0.3–0.9，乙組 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差異較大，反映發行人各自的分配策略。
中籤率定義

本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致：中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑，與其他網站可能使用的不同定義（如「申購人數中籤比例」）有本質區別。

期望中籤手數

期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數

例：某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

關於本頁

本頁展示 彤程新材（09607）的中籤預測：基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導，公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數；其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準，再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準；隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權；臨近截止（進度約九成後）默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配，估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數，並結合分配手法係數 α（人均分配至比例分配）給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α，覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測，查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源：港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告；孖展數據（孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細）來自捷利交易寶（TradeGo），倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商，捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新；中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中籤率預測、中籤畫像與入通分析
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