孖展動態 孖展倍數562.99x 孖展資金1826.8億 捷利預測倍數731.89x
排名 券商 孖展資金
1 富途证券富途 1293.5億
2 老虎国际老虎 190.6億
3 辉立证券辉立 113.0億
4 华泰国际华泰 83.4億
5 华盛证券华盛 32.0億
6 致富证券致富 27.6億
7 复星国际复星 27.0億
8 盈立证券盈立 22.8億
9 熊猫证券熊猫 10.9億
孖展倍數
時間倍數
2026-06-17T06:00:00+08:000
2026-06-17T10:12:55+08:000.00329758382642998
2026-06-17T10:13:00+08:000.007303994082840237
2026-06-17T10:13:06+08:000.08743219921104536
2026-06-17T11:15:53+08:000.10009861932938856
2026-06-17T11:16:24+08:000.10022189349112426
2026-06-17T11:18:09+08:000.1096215483234714
2026-06-17T11:19:07+08:000.11073101577909271
2026-06-17T11:19:57+08:000.8534578402366864
2026-06-17T12:15:08+08:000.8542899408284024
2026-06-17T12:16:33+08:000.9155571992110454
2026-06-17T12:19:00+08:000.9176836785009862
2026-06-17T12:19:55+08:000.9214435404339251
2026-06-17T12:20:43+08:001.220383382642998
2026-06-17T13:43:24+08:001.224944526627219
2026-06-17T13:44:33+08:001.2254684418145956
2026-06-17T13:45:57+08:001.3086168639053255
2026-06-17T13:48:06+08:001.3159208579881656
2026-06-17T13:50:27+08:001.750462278106509
2026-06-17T14:08:01+08:001.7730830867850098
2026-06-17T14:08:47+08:001.7732371794871795
2026-06-17T14:10:30+08:001.8073841222879685
2026-06-17T14:11:35+08:001.8098187869822486
2026-06-17T14:12:36+08:001.9762389053254439
2026-06-17T14:14:20+08:002.009861932938856
2026-06-17T15:07:18+08:002.2080867850098618
2026-06-17T15:08:35+08:002.2190890039447733
2026-06-17T15:09:19+08:002.2210613905325443
2026-06-17T15:09:56+08:002.2271018244575935
2026-06-17T15:11:38+08:002.8373089250493098
2026-06-17T16:27:06+08:002.8376171104536487
2026-06-17T16:28:00+08:002.8420241617357003
2026-06-17T16:31:09+08:002.8523483727810652
2026-06-17T16:32:44+08:003.832377958579882
2026-06-17T16:34:42+08:003.856416420118343
2026-06-17T16:36:05+08:003.8604844674556213
2026-06-17T17:01:25+08:003.922152366863905
2026-06-17T17:02:33+08:003.9521388067061145
2026-06-17T17:04:16+08:003.974420611439842
2026-06-17T17:06:09+08:003.9825875246548326
2026-06-17T17:07:11+08:004.293854783037475
2026-06-17T18:04:26+08:004.301097140039448
2026-06-17T18:05:26+08:004.303192800788954
2026-06-17T18:07:39+08:004.324457593688363
2026-06-17T18:08:17+08:004.335490631163708
2026-06-17T18:09:01+08:004.374568540433925
2026-06-17T18:09:36+08:004.639607988165681
2026-06-17T18:12:35+08:004.6775764299802765
2026-06-17T20:22:11+08:005.602132642998027
2026-06-17T20:23:40+08:005.610731015779093
2026-06-17T20:24:43+08:005.634091469428008
2026-06-17T20:25:47+08:005.6420118343195265
2026-06-17T20:27:08+08:005.66944033530572
2026-06-17T20:33:24+08:005.623212524654832
2026-06-17T22:23:45+08:005.623736439842209
2026-06-17T22:25:36+08:005.644662228796844
2026-06-17T22:26:07+08:005.644908777120316
2026-06-17T22:27:33+08:005.6692246055226825
2026-06-17T22:28:48+08:005.841808431952662
2026-06-18T09:17:03+08:005.861717209072978
2026-06-18T09:17:10+08:005.862241124260355
2026-06-18T09:17:17+08:005.862241124260355
2026-06-18T09:17:22+08:005.909670857988166
2026-06-18T09:17:28+08:005.9098865877712035
2026-06-18T09:17:34+08:006.5570759368836296
2026-06-18T09:17:41+08:006.653568786982248
2026-06-18T09:17:55+08:006.836168639053255
2026-06-18T09:18:01+08:006.846554487179487
2026-06-18T09:18:07+08:006.846955128205129
2026-06-18T09:18:13+08:006.927083333333333
2026-06-18T10:07:06+08:006.989336785009862
2026-06-18T10:07:11+08:006.996979783037475
2026-06-18T10:07:17+08:006.998582347140039
2026-06-18T10:07:22+08:006.997996794871795
2026-06-18T10:07:29+08:007.003266765285996
2026-06-18T10:07:41+08:007.004684418145956
2026-06-18T10:07:48+08:007.050912228796844
2026-06-18T11:19:27+08:007.08817184418146
2026-06-18T11:20:31+08:007.091900887573964
2026-06-18T11:22:39+08:007.110823471400394
2026-06-18T11:22:51+08:007.111193293885601
2026-06-18T11:25:42+08:008.146696252465484
2026-06-18T12:16:15+08:008.147959812623274
2026-06-18T12:18:59+08:008.249167899408285
2026-06-18T12:20:32+08:008.270062869822485
2026-06-18T12:22:41+08:008.40726701183432
2026-06-18T12:23:18+08:008.558277859960553
2026-06-18T14:06:07+08:008.574889053254438
2026-06-18T14:06:09+08:008.577693540433925
2026-06-18T14:09:50+08:008.596646942800788
2026-06-18T14:09:56+08:008.640008629191321
2026-06-18T14:11:35+08:008.640039447731755
2026-06-18T14:11:44+08:008.64031681459566
2026-06-18T14:12:49+08:008.791327662721894
2026-06-18T14:12:53+08:009.03171227810651
2026-06-18T14:13:49+08:009.06878698224852
2026-06-18T14:13:52+08:009.083764792899409
2026-06-18T14:16:28+08:009.107556706114398
2026-06-18T14:16:31+08:009.108943540433925
2026-06-18T14:19:58+08:009.189410749506903
2026-06-18T15:11:52+08:009.248304980276133
2026-06-18T15:11:58+08:009.268090483234714
2026-06-18T15:12:24+08:009.284763313609467
2026-06-18T15:12:35+08:009.454419378698224
2026-06-18T15:12:47+08:009.790341469428007
2026-06-18T16:12:08+08:009.853858481262327
2026-06-18T16:13:01+08:009.854289940828401
2026-06-18T16:14:26+08:009.958086785009861
2026-06-18T16:15:36+08:009.958333333333334
2026-06-18T16:16:38+08:009.991031804733728
2026-06-18T16:17:35+08:0011.701460798816568
2026-06-18T16:18:16+08:0011.732279339250493
2026-06-18T17:47:59+08:0011.879591962524655
2026-06-18T17:49:58+08:0012.027428500986193
2026-06-18T17:51:50+08:0012.043793145956608
2026-06-18T17:53:15+08:0012.078094181459566
2026-06-18T17:53:57+08:0013.514238165680473
2026-06-18T17:55:43+08:0014.2847016765286
2026-06-18T18:11:29+08:0014.36479906311637
2026-06-18T18:11:41+08:0014.395617603550296
2026-06-18T18:11:48+08:0014.420364891518737
2026-06-18T18:11:53+08:0014.431644477317555
2026-06-18T18:12:05+08:0014.75597879684418
2026-06-18T18:12:17+08:0014.757889546351084
2026-06-18T18:12:25+08:0016.089250493096646
2026-06-18T18:16:41+08:0016.55048076923077
2026-06-18T20:30:04+08:0016.57066691321499
2026-06-18T20:31:04+08:0016.637851331360945
2026-06-18T20:32:47+08:0016.684325690335307
2026-06-18T20:33:59+08:0016.721955128205128
2026-06-18T20:35:07+08:0016.750832100591715
2026-06-18T20:36:07+08:0018.606108234714004
2026-06-18T21:34:34+08:0018.624476084812624
2026-06-18T22:09:21+08:0018.65874630177515
2026-06-18T22:09:48+08:0018.68891765285996
2026-06-18T22:10:24+08:0018.716808431952664
2026-06-18T22:10:45+08:0019.80778476331361
2026-06-19T09:17:30+08:0022.90812993096647
2026-06-19T09:17:35+08:0023.675511587771204
2026-06-19T09:20:08+08:0023.717671351084814
2026-06-19T09:21:37+08:0023.830189842209073
2026-06-19T09:24:47+08:0023.909979043392504
2026-06-19T09:26:41+08:0023.918916420118343
2026-06-19T09:31:34+08:0024.701614891518737
2026-06-19T09:33:07+08:0024.701614891518737
2026-06-19T10:17:00+08:0024.702077169625248
2026-06-19T10:17:34+08:0024.71230892504931
2026-06-19T10:19:24+08:0024.71372657790927
2026-06-19T10:20:45+08:0024.717147435897434
2026-06-19T10:23:20+08:0024.71717825443787
2026-06-19T10:24:50+08:0025.09008259368836
2026-06-19T11:40:11+08:0025.091900887573964
2026-06-19T11:41:58+08:0025.09381163708087
2026-06-19T11:43:16+08:0025.09828032544379
2026-06-19T11:44:43+08:0025.113258136094675
2026-06-19T11:45:27+08:0025.207809418145956
2026-06-19T11:50:30+08:0025.36190212031558
2026-06-19T12:08:05+08:0025.363134861932938
2026-06-19T12:10:19+08:0025.366771449704142
2026-06-19T12:11:25+08:0025.384091469428007
2026-06-19T12:12:52+08:0025.38843688362919
2026-06-19T12:13:28+08:0025.388929980276135
2026-06-19T12:14:38+08:0025.502958579881657
2026-06-19T14:12:44+08:0025.5069958086785
2026-06-19T14:12:59+08:0025.508906558185405
2026-06-19T14:17:41+08:0025.526319033530573
2026-06-19T14:17:44+08:0025.527767504930967
2026-06-19T14:19:34+08:0025.529246794871796
2026-06-19T14:19:39+08:0025.53880054240631
2026-06-19T14:22:56+08:0025.540896203155818
2026-06-19T14:23:00+08:0025.540957840236686
2026-06-19T14:23:56+08:0025.547768737672584
2026-06-19T14:24:03+08:0025.55245315581854
2026-06-19T14:26:57+08:0025.913030078895464
2026-06-19T14:27:01+08:0026.162660256410255
2026-06-19T15:16:14+08:0026.162875986193296
2026-06-19T15:16:53+08:0026.182846400394478
2026-06-19T15:18:06+08:0026.20176898422091
2026-06-19T15:19:12+08:0026.204265285996055
2026-06-19T15:19:56+08:0026.221770216962526
2026-06-19T15:21:19+08:0026.37278106508876
2026-06-19T17:10:04+08:0026.37580128205128
2026-06-19T17:12:11+08:0026.37697238658777
2026-06-19T17:13:24+08:0026.59578402366864
2026-06-19T17:13:28+08:0026.682075936883628
2026-06-19T17:17:21+08:0026.732125246548325
2026-06-19T17:17:25+08:0026.737395216962526
2026-06-19T17:21:26+08:0026.73995315581854
2026-06-19T17:21:30+08:0026.7413708086785
2026-06-19T17:22:26+08:0026.761433678500985
2026-06-19T17:22:30+08:0026.762758875739646
2026-06-19T22:48:31+08:0026.818478796844182
2026-06-19T22:52:58+08:0026.83619945759369
2026-06-19T22:59:22+08:0026.84994452662722
2026-06-19T23:05:32+08:0026.85167036489152
2026-06-19T23:05:45+08:0026.852903106508876
2026-06-19T23:12:39+08:0026.919162968441814
2026-06-19T23:18:16+08:0028.074858234714004
2026-06-19T23:23:53+08:0028.079357741617358
2026-06-19T23:25:31+08:0028.088449211045365
2026-06-20T10:22:59+08:0028.088449211045365
2026-06-20T10:24:40+08:0028.582562869822485
2026-06-20T10:25:34+08:0028.61775764299803
2026-06-20T10:27:58+08:0028.632427268244577
2026-06-20T10:29:17+08:0028.658931213017752
2026-06-20T10:30:43+08:0028.668053500986193
2026-06-20T10:32:46+08:0029.290588017751478
2026-06-20T10:33:22+08:0029.500154092702168
2026-06-20T12:20:26+08:0029.504129684418146
2026-06-20T12:21:50+08:0029.510200936883628
2026-06-20T12:23:12+08:0029.531126725838263
2026-06-20T12:24:16+08:0029.545179980276135
2026-06-20T12:25:13+08:0029.599821252465482
2026-06-20T12:27:05+08:0030.182291666666668
2026-06-20T14:13:54+08:0030.18830128205128
2026-06-20T14:15:01+08:0030.277305226824456
2026-06-20T14:15:47+08:0030.278168145956606
2026-06-20T14:16:36+08:0030.28676651873767
2026-06-20T14:18:19+08:0030.288892998027613
2026-06-20T14:19:39+08:0031.44150641025641
2026-06-20T18:34:02+08:0031.446160009861934
2026-06-20T18:36:03+08:0031.459596893491124
2026-06-20T18:37:36+08:0031.475283530571993
2026-06-20T18:38:50+08:0031.551929240631164
2026-06-20T18:39:52+08:0031.561513806706113
2026-06-20T18:41:03+08:0032.40902366863905
2026-06-20T18:41:28+08:0032.52921597633136
2026-06-20T20:12:28+08:0032.53084935897436
2026-06-20T20:13:44+08:0032.53735207100592
2026-06-20T20:15:30+08:0032.55011094674556
2026-06-20T20:16:15+08:0032.561575443786985
2026-06-20T20:17:55+08:0032.57300912228797
2026-06-20T20:18:36+08:0032.78257519723866
2026-06-20T21:09:56+08:0032.78337647928994
2026-06-20T22:06:03+08:0032.79844674556213
2026-06-20T22:07:06+08:0032.79866247534517
2026-06-20T22:08:34+08:0032.842116617357
2026-06-20T22:09:22+08:0033.498551528599606
2026-06-21T09:53:53+08:0033.47620808678501
2026-06-21T09:54:01+08:0033.48557692307692
2026-06-21T09:54:23+08:0033.60447485207101
2026-06-21T09:54:31+08:0033.62050049309665
2026-06-21T09:54:39+08:0035.21073717948718
2026-06-21T09:54:48+08:0035.2186575443787
2026-06-21T09:55:23+08:0035.23212524654832
2026-06-21T09:55:32+08:0035.312869822485204
2026-06-21T09:55:41+08:0035.32855645956607
2026-06-21T09:55:49+08:0035.328433185404336
2026-06-21T09:56:09+08:0035.84310281065089
2026-06-21T10:09:56+08:0035.84424309664694
2026-06-21T10:10:02+08:0035.84396572978304
2026-06-21T10:10:11+08:0035.84606139053255
2026-06-21T10:10:18+08:0035.87549309664694
2026-06-21T10:10:35+08:0035.879715236686394
2026-06-21T10:10:42+08:0036.634769477317555
2026-06-21T12:37:09+08:0036.63603303747534
2026-06-21T12:37:21+08:0036.63791296844182
2026-06-21T12:39:12+08:0036.6475283530572
2026-06-21T12:39:17+08:0036.65070266272189
2026-06-21T12:41:23+08:0036.672799556213015
2026-06-21T12:41:55+08:0036.68703772189349
2026-06-21T12:43:31+08:0036.711076183431956
2026-06-21T12:43:35+08:0036.829573471400394
2026-06-21T12:47:06+08:0036.82966592702169
2026-06-21T12:47:24+08:0036.83247041420118
2026-06-21T12:48:18+08:0036.8263067061144
2026-06-21T12:48:21+08:0037.01121794871795
2026-06-21T13:05:17+08:0037.0070882642998
2026-06-21T13:06:16+08:0037.008690828402365
2026-06-21T13:07:12+08:0037.01294378698225
2026-06-21T13:08:09+08:0037.060558431952664
2026-06-21T13:08:33+08:0037.06191444773175
2026-06-21T13:09:19+08:0037.30846277120315
2026-06-21T15:48:51+08:0037.3124075443787
2026-06-21T15:50:51+08:0037.319372534516766
2026-06-21T15:51:49+08:0037.338480029585796
2026-06-21T15:52:35+08:0037.386957593688365
2026-06-21T15:53:36+08:0036.91981015779093
2026-06-21T15:54:54+08:0037.311205621301774
2026-06-21T18:30:55+08:0037.32590606508876
2026-06-21T18:31:52+08:0037.33262450690335
2026-06-21T18:33:57+08:0037.409362672583825
2026-06-21T18:35:05+08:0037.428809171597635
2026-06-21T18:36:31+08:0037.52675049309665
2026-06-21T18:37:44+08:0038.485207100591715
2026-06-21T20:05:57+08:0038.50493096646943
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2026-06-21T20:09:55+08:0038.56293145956607
2026-06-21T20:11:09+08:0039.36113165680474
2026-06-21T21:05:54+08:0039.36600098619329
2026-06-21T22:11:05+08:0039.444434171597635
2026-06-21T22:11:42+08:0039.48831977317554
2026-06-21T22:13:41+08:0039.510416666666664
2026-06-21T22:15:02+08:0039.83709319526627
2026-06-21T22:15:07+08:0040.62296597633136
2026-06-22T09:11:48+08:0040.673816568047336
2026-06-22T09:11:53+08:0040.69819403353057
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捷利預測倍數
時間倍數
券商孖展資金走勢
時間券商孖展資金
預測模型 一手期望中籤手數— 期望中籤1手所需手數—
倍數推導
近期首日表現
+4.6%
→
參與人數
17,828
→
人均手數
27.2
→
認購倍數
19x
19x = 17,828 × 27.2 ÷ 25,678 A+H二次上市 · 參與×0.44 H股折價 56.0% 孖展加權 100% → 731.9x
1x3081.0x
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.53
分配手法係數 α
分配手法係數
反映發行人對不同申購規模的分配偏好。
α → 0  人均分配 — 每人獲配相同股數,與申購手數無關。
α → 1  按申購量比例分配 — 申購手數越多,獲配越多。
歷史 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3 – 0.9,乙組 0.4 – 1.0
0.63
此模型不適用分配手法調節

實際 vs 預測 對比

以實際認購倍數 1007.22x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.526, 乙組 α=0.626) 為基準,對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數

申購手數 認購金額(HKD) 實際期望中籤 預測期望中籤 偏差

標誌芯碁微装中籤預測矩陣

行為申購檔位,列為不同認購倍數,數值為期望中籤手數,綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手;非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。

發售機制說明

機制B

《第18項應用指引》下的靈活發售機制。最低初訂分配份額爲發售股份的10%,不設回補機制。最高初訂分配份額爲發售股份的60%(因《第18項應用指引》規定發售股份總數至少40%須分配予配售部分投資者,基石投資者除外)。發行人可根據發售結構、市場狀況及散戶投資者利益,自行釐定公開認購部分的初訂分配份額。

分配手法係數 α

α 為發行人分配偏好係數,描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。

  • α → 0:人均分配——無論申購多少手,每位中籤者獲配股數相同。對散戶(小單申購)更有利。
  • α → 1:比例分配——獲配股數與申購手數成正比。對大額申購更有利。
  • 歷史實際 α 區間(P10–P90):甲組 0.3–0.9,乙組 0.4–1.0。不同IPO的α值差異較大,反映發行人各自的分配策略。
中籤率定義

本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致:中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑,與其他網站可能使用的不同定義(如「申購人數中籤比例」)有本質區別。

期望中籤手數

期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數

例:某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股,每手 100 股,申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。

關於本頁

本頁展示 芯碁微装(09630)的中籤預測:基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導,公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數;其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準,再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準;隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權;臨近截止(進度約九成後)默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配,估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數,並結合分配手法係數 α(人均分配至比例分配)給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α,覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測,查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源:港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告;孖展數據(孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細)來自捷利交易寶(TradeGo),倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商,捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新;中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。

Cibo — 港股IPO中籤率預測、中籤畫像與入通分析