奇瑞汽车 09973
新股中籤預測
22.1801.51%( -0.340 )
11月13日 · 收市數據，非即時 · 香港交易所
基於相似IPO匹配的期望中籤預測
新股中籤預測| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展資金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
1145.3億 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
475.0億 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
251.7億 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
127.2億 |
| 5 |  招银 |
57.0億 |
| 6 |  华盛 |
54.1億 |
| 7 |  耀才 |
20.0億 |
| 9 |  信诚 |
15.0億 |
| 10 |  长桥 |
12.9億 |
| 11 |  盈立 |
6.8億 |
| 12 | 卓锐证券 | 5.5億 |
| 13 |  TradeGo |
5.1億 |
| 14 |  艾德 |
6521萬 |
| 15 |  Funderstone |
4497萬 |
| 16 |  盈宝 |
2886萬 |
| 時間 | 倍數 |
|---|---|
| 2025-09-17T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2025-09-17T10:11:32+08:00 | 0.05084745762711865 |
| 2025-09-17T10:11:48+08:00 | 0.05714598141060689 |
| 2025-09-17T10:11:57+08:00 | 0.09869874248223073 |
| 2025-09-17T10:55:34+08:00 | 0.1511864406779661 |
| 2025-09-17T11:10:46+08:00 | 1.0634117003827228 |
| 2025-09-17T11:10:59+08:00 | 1.2722033898305085 |
| 2025-09-17T11:11:12+08:00 | 2.6018917441224714 |
| 2025-09-17T12:03:29+08:00 | 3.1565008201202844 |
| 2025-09-17T12:03:47+08:00 | 3.271656642974303 |
| 2025-09-17T12:06:43+08:00 | 3.457550574084199 |
| 2025-09-17T13:44:17+08:00 | 3.7145215965008203 |
| 2025-09-17T13:44:33+08:00 | 3.759223619464188 |
| 2025-09-17T13:44:41+08:00 | 3.810125751776927 |
| 2025-09-17T13:45:06+08:00 | 3.8538655002733733 |
| 2025-09-17T14:15:02+08:00 | 3.9663422635319847 |
| 2025-09-17T14:15:23+08:00 | 3.988747949699289 |
| 2025-09-17T14:15:34+08:00 | 4.2008857299070534 |
| 2025-09-17T14:16:09+08:00 | 4.275418261344997 |
| 2025-09-17T15:29:00+08:00 | 4.306757791142701 |
| 2025-09-17T15:29:09+08:00 | 4.334598141060689 |
| 2025-09-17T15:29:23+08:00 | 4.58172772006561 |
| 2025-09-17T16:40:01+08:00 | 4.6632367413887374 |
| 2025-09-17T16:40:23+08:00 | 4.675440131219245 |
| 2025-09-17T16:40:33+08:00 | 5.076752323674139 |
| 2025-09-17T17:10:47+08:00 | 5.219617277200656 |
| 2025-09-17T17:11:04+08:00 | 5.219595407326408 |
| 2025-09-17T17:11:10+08:00 | 5.462351011481684 |
| 2025-09-17T17:29:07+08:00 | 5.571700382722799 |
| 2025-09-17T17:30:32+08:00 | 7.9773865500273375 |
| 2025-09-17T18:12:13+08:00 | 8.046396938217605 |
| 2025-09-17T18:12:30+08:00 | 8.678436303991251 |
| 2025-09-17T18:13:09+08:00 | 8.787785675232367 |
| 2025-09-17T18:15:39+08:00 | 9.006484417714598 |
| 2025-09-17T18:16:18+08:00 | 9.115833788955714 |
| 2025-09-17T18:18:10+08:00 | 9.57210497539639 |
| 2025-09-17T22:16:33+08:00 | 9.590442864953527 |
| 2025-09-17T22:16:52+08:00 | 9.95348277747403 |
| 2025-09-17T22:17:25+08:00 | 10.004341170038272 |
| 2025-09-17T22:17:29+08:00 | 10.004352104975396 |
| 2025-09-17T22:17:49+08:00 | 10.378326954620011 |
| 2025-09-17T22:18:07+08:00 | 10.04922908693275 |
| 2025-09-17T22:18:17+08:00 | 10.049086932750138 |
| 2025-09-17T22:18:27+08:00 | 10.359639147074905 |
| 2025-09-17T22:18:48+08:00 | 10.420885729907052 |
| 2025-09-17T22:19:00+08:00 | 10.421006014215418 |
| 2025-09-17T22:19:11+08:00 | 10.550038272279934 |
| 2025-09-18T08:32:02+08:00 | 11.646812465828322 |
| 2025-09-18T08:32:18+08:00 | 11.690738108255877 |
| 2025-09-18T08:32:24+08:00 | 11.898895571350465 |
| 2025-09-18T08:33:26+08:00 | 11.898928376161837 |
| 2025-09-18T08:33:29+08:00 | 11.898862766539093 |
| 2025-09-18T08:33:32+08:00 | 11.898917441224713 |
| 2025-09-18T08:33:41+08:00 | 11.898917441224713 |
| 2025-09-18T09:02:02+08:00 | 12.074182613449972 |
| 2025-09-18T09:07:38+08:00 | 12.105401858939311 |
| 2025-09-18T09:07:55+08:00 | 12.214751230180427 |
| 2025-09-18T09:08:00+08:00 | 12.214554401312192 |
| 2025-09-18T09:08:10+08:00 | 12.409196282121378 |
| 2025-09-18T09:29:50+08:00 | 12.627895024603609 |
| 2025-09-18T10:08:24+08:00 | 12.705959540732641 |
| 2025-09-18T10:08:32+08:00 | 12.760841990158557 |
| 2025-09-18T10:08:42+08:00 | 13.20151995626025 |
| 2025-09-18T11:03:36+08:00 | 13.297145981410607 |
| 2025-09-18T11:05:16+08:00 | 12.803980317113176 |
| 2025-09-18T12:05:59+08:00 | 12.848627665390923 |
| 2025-09-18T12:06:02+08:00 | 13.154805904866047 |
| 2025-09-18T13:43:11+08:00 | 13.172706396938217 |
| 2025-09-18T13:43:25+08:00 | 13.172695462001094 |
| 2025-09-18T13:43:32+08:00 | 13.630869327501367 |
| 2025-09-18T14:03:28+08:00 | 13.655626025150355 |
| 2025-09-18T14:04:14+08:00 | 14.256336796063422 |
| 2025-09-18T14:05:29+08:00 | 14.562515035538546 |
| 2025-09-18T14:28:47+08:00 | 15.656008747949699 |
| 2025-09-18T15:06:37+08:00 | 15.828376161837069 |
| 2025-09-18T15:06:40+08:00 | 16.031765992345544 |
| 2025-09-18T16:05:35+08:00 | 16.066987424822308 |
| 2025-09-18T16:05:38+08:00 | 16.360043739748498 |
| 2025-09-18T17:01:45+08:00 | 16.79744122471296 |
| 2025-09-18T17:06:07+08:00 | 16.906298523783487 |
| 2025-09-18T17:06:19+08:00 | 17.032750136686715 |
| 2025-09-18T17:06:22+08:00 | 17.56746856205577 |
| 2025-09-18T17:30:08+08:00 | 17.676817933296885 |
| 2025-09-18T17:30:32+08:00 | 18.44226353198469 |
| 2025-09-18T17:31:17+08:00 | 18.98901038819027 |
| 2025-09-18T18:07:15+08:00 | 19.14087479496993 |
| 2025-09-18T18:07:30+08:00 | 19.318228540185896 |
| 2025-09-18T18:07:37+08:00 | 19.51287042099508 |
| 2025-09-18T18:10:54+08:00 | 20.272017495899398 |
| 2025-09-18T20:16:43+08:00 | 20.28117003827228 |
| 2025-09-18T20:16:49+08:00 | 20.383367960634228 |
| 2025-09-18T20:16:55+08:00 | 21.016500820120285 |
| 2025-09-18T20:17:07+08:00 | 21.031842536905412 |
| 2025-09-18T20:17:12+08:00 | 21.062372881355934 |
| 2025-09-18T20:17:18+08:00 | 21.215462001093492 |
| 2025-09-18T22:05:07+08:00 | 21.29922361946419 |
| 2025-09-18T22:05:12+08:00 | 21.2707927829415 |
| 2025-09-18T22:05:18+08:00 | 21.339136139967195 |
| 2025-09-18T22:05:36+08:00 | 21.42997266265719 |
| 2025-09-18T22:05:41+08:00 | 21.46055768179333 |
| 2025-09-18T22:05:47+08:00 | 21.69893931109896 |
| 2025-09-19T07:51:41+08:00 | 21.737769272826682 |
| 2025-09-19T07:51:45+08:00 | 21.788518316019683 |
| 2025-09-19T07:51:53+08:00 | 21.80343357025697 |
| 2025-09-19T07:51:57+08:00 | 21.80343357025697 |
| 2025-09-19T07:52:01+08:00 | 21.802985237834882 |
| 2025-09-19T07:52:05+08:00 | 21.80372881355932 |
| 2025-09-19T07:52:08+08:00 | 21.80306178239475 |
| 2025-09-19T07:52:12+08:00 | 21.803499179879715 |
| 2025-09-19T07:52:17+08:00 | 21.803739748496447 |
| 2025-09-19T09:00:34+08:00 | 22.07678512848551 |
| 2025-09-19T09:00:40+08:00 | 22.905653362493165 |
| 2025-09-19T09:10:15+08:00 | 22.81337342810279 |
| 2025-09-19T09:10:23+08:00 | 23.202657189721158 |
| 2025-09-19T09:10:27+08:00 | 23.205937670858393 |
| 2025-09-19T09:11:30+08:00 | 23.35728813559322 |
| 2025-09-19T10:13:02+08:00 | 23.86904319300164 |
| 2025-09-19T10:13:42+08:00 | 23.887774740295242 |
| 2025-09-19T10:13:49+08:00 | 24.06606889010388 |
| 2025-09-19T10:14:04+08:00 | 24.284767632586114 |
| 2025-09-19T11:04:30+08:00 | 24.372170585019138 |
| 2025-09-19T11:04:51+08:00 | 24.470913067249864 |
| 2025-09-19T11:08:22+08:00 | 24.99688354291963 |
| 2025-09-19T12:08:37+08:00 | 25.050552214324767 |
| 2025-09-19T12:08:55+08:00 | 25.132881355932202 |
| 2025-09-19T12:09:10+08:00 | 26.586134499726626 |
| 2025-09-19T13:49:50+08:00 | 26.63289229086933 |
| 2025-09-19T13:50:40+08:00 | 27.201509021323126 |
| 2025-09-19T13:50:59+08:00 | 27.225183160196828 |
| 2025-09-19T13:51:12+08:00 | 27.63633679606342 |
| 2025-09-19T14:06:44+08:00 | 27.746320393657737 |
| 2025-09-19T14:07:03+08:00 | 27.785117550574085 |
| 2025-09-19T14:07:22+08:00 | 28.431372334609076 |
| 2025-09-19T14:09:38+08:00 | 28.697244395844724 |
| 2025-09-19T15:14:43+08:00 | 28.818316019682886 |
| 2025-09-19T15:15:00+08:00 | 29.669054127938765 |
| 2025-09-19T15:15:19+08:00 | 29.747348277747403 |
| 2025-09-19T16:10:04+08:00 | 29.878851831601967 |
| 2025-09-19T16:11:02+08:00 | 31.300393657736468 |
| 2025-09-19T16:12:04+08:00 | 32.34358665937671 |
| 2025-09-19T17:11:14+08:00 | 32.644570803717876 |
| 2025-09-19T17:12:13+08:00 | 33.48546746856206 |
| 2025-09-19T17:43:03+08:00 | 44.857802077638055 |
| 2025-09-19T18:04:45+08:00 | 47.38918534718425 |
| 2025-09-19T18:05:35+08:00 | 56.74839803171132 |
| 2025-09-19T18:09:09+08:00 | 58.16993985784582 |
| 2025-09-19T18:09:33+08:00 | 58.93538545653362 |
| 2025-09-19T18:15:54+08:00 | 61.61934390377255 |
| 2025-09-19T20:14:50+08:00 | 63.951919081465284 |
| 2025-09-19T20:15:15+08:00 | 70.60692181519956 |
| 2025-09-19T20:15:33+08:00 | 72.57521049753964 |
| 2025-09-19T20:16:22+08:00 | 74.15290322580645 |
| 2025-09-19T20:16:38+08:00 | 77.60724986331329 |
| 2025-09-19T22:12:22+08:00 | 78.35563696008748 |
| 2025-09-19T22:12:40+08:00 | 81.10686714051394 |
| 2025-09-19T22:13:13+08:00 | 82.26400218698743 |
| 2025-09-19T22:13:29+08:00 | 84.7713832695462 |
| 2025-09-20T08:20:46+08:00 | 85.21477310005467 |
| 2025-09-20T08:21:57+08:00 | 85.21477310005467 |
| 2025-09-20T08:22:16+08:00 | 86.28995079278295 |
| 2025-09-20T08:22:28+08:00 | 94.99634773100054 |
| 2025-09-20T10:09:11+08:00 | 95.28767632586113 |
| 2025-09-20T10:09:23+08:00 | 96.2565117550574 |
| 2025-09-20T10:10:02+08:00 | 96.53540732640788 |
| 2025-09-20T10:10:17+08:00 | 98.26203389830509 |
| 2025-09-20T11:09:24+08:00 | 98.4390049207217 |
| 2025-09-20T11:09:37+08:00 | 98.96606889010388 |
| 2025-09-20T12:47:02+08:00 | 99.34704209950793 |
| 2025-09-20T12:47:28+08:00 | 100.65923455440131 |
| 2025-09-20T14:21:53+08:00 | 100.82427556041553 |
| 2025-09-20T14:22:30+08:00 | 101.67173318753417 |
| 2025-09-20T14:23:16+08:00 | 101.92418808091854 |
| 2025-09-20T14:23:29+08:00 | 103.24294149808638 |
| 2025-09-20T15:47:19+08:00 | 103.55100054674686 |
| 2025-09-20T15:47:31+08:00 | 104.41486057955167 |
| 2025-09-20T16:49:22+08:00 | 104.53910333515583 |
| 2025-09-20T16:49:35+08:00 | 105.22909786768726 |
| 2025-09-20T17:49:02+08:00 | 105.6364680153089 |
| 2025-09-20T17:49:21+08:00 | 106.3614543466375 |
| 2025-09-20T18:10:52+08:00 | 106.50609075997814 |
| 2025-09-20T18:11:07+08:00 | 109.76688901038818 |
| 2025-09-20T19:40:04+08:00 | 109.94203389830508 |
| 2025-09-20T19:40:15+08:00 | 110.7085729907053 |
| 2025-09-20T20:48:18+08:00 | 110.93645708037178 |
| 2025-09-20T20:48:34+08:00 | 111.35307818480044 |
| 2025-09-20T21:19:05+08:00 | 111.57316566429743 |
| 2025-09-20T21:19:21+08:00 | 112.73445598687807 |
| 2025-09-20T22:10:24+08:00 | 112.94835429196281 |
| 2025-09-20T22:10:39+08:00 | 113.67334062329141 |
| 2025-09-21T11:33:31+08:00 | 113.7587315472936 |
| 2025-09-21T11:33:36+08:00 | 114.29538545653362 |
| 2025-09-21T11:33:40+08:00 | 114.61276107162384 |
| 2025-09-21T11:33:44+08:00 | 114.77270639693822 |
| 2025-09-21T11:33:48+08:00 | 114.96602515035539 |
| 2025-09-21T11:34:10+08:00 | 119.34218698742482 |
| 2025-09-21T11:34:14+08:00 | 120.05842536905413 |
| 2025-09-21T11:34:19+08:00 | 122.03874248223073 |
| 2025-09-21T11:34:23+08:00 | 123.30391470749043 |
| 2025-09-21T13:08:14+08:00 | 123.41112083105521 |
| 2025-09-21T13:08:20+08:00 | 124.28591580098414 |
| 2025-09-21T13:08:24+08:00 | 124.40896664844178 |
| 2025-09-21T13:08:28+08:00 | 125.54291962821213 |
| 2025-09-21T16:42:10+08:00 | 127.37452159650083 |
| 2025-09-21T16:42:23+08:00 | 128.47785675232367 |
| 2025-09-21T16:42:36+08:00 | 129.9300164024057 |
| 2025-09-21T16:43:26+08:00 | 130.09708037178785 |
| 2025-09-21T16:43:41+08:00 | 130.42383816293056 |
| 2025-09-21T16:43:56+08:00 | 130.607752870421 |
| 2025-09-21T19:09:29+08:00 | 132.60993985784583 |
| 2025-09-21T19:09:45+08:00 | 134.58588299617278 |
| 2025-09-21T19:10:01+08:00 | 136.4984034991799 |
| 2025-09-21T19:12:08+08:00 | 136.8098305084746 |
| 2025-09-21T19:12:24+08:00 | 137.11062875888464 |
| 2025-09-21T19:12:37+08:00 | 137.69663203936577 |
| 2025-09-21T22:22:48+08:00 | 138.5724767632586 |
| 2025-09-21T22:23:02+08:00 | 139.037003827228 |
| 2025-09-21T22:23:15+08:00 | 139.53039912520504 |
| 2025-09-21T22:24:25+08:00 | 142.096828868234 |
| 2025-09-21T22:24:41+08:00 | 144.32755604155275 |
| 2025-09-21T22:24:56+08:00 | 148.89179879715692 |
| 2025-09-22T08:32:48+08:00 | 149.61105522143248 |
| 2025-09-22T08:33:02+08:00 | 152.07185347184253 |
| 2025-09-22T08:33:26+08:00 | 173.34139967195188 |
| 2025-09-22T09:22:40+08:00 | 173.34139967195188 |
| 2025-09-22T09:23:07+08:00 | 175.5283870967742 |
| 2025-09-22T09:23:29+08:00 | 176.27280481137234 |
| 2025-09-22T09:23:44+08:00 | 184.75284855112082 |
| 2025-09-22T09:24:36+08:00 | 218.86985237834884 |
| 2025-09-22T09:50:55+08:00 | 222.36903225806452 |
| 2025-09-22T09:52:39+08:00 | 231.11646801530893 |
| 2025-09-22T10:07:51+08:00 | 231.95284855112084 |
| 2025-09-22T11:11:10+08:00 | 232.3902460360853 |
| 2025-09-22T11:11:18+08:00 | 238.04 |
| 時間 | 倍數 |
|---|
| 時間 | 券商 | 孖展資金 |
|---|
以實際認購倍數 308.18x 和當前分配手法 (甲組 α=0.573, 乙組 α=0.673) 為基準，對比各檔位的實際與預測期望中籤手數
| 申購手數 | 認購金額(HKD) | 實際期望中籤 | 預測期望中籤 | 偏差 |
|---|
奇瑞汽车中籤預測矩陣行為申購檔位，列為不同認購倍數，數值為期望中籤手數，綠色背景表示期望中籤≥1手；非預設倍數由相鄰網格插值估計。
機制B
《第18項應用指引》下的靈活發售機制。最低初訂分配份額爲發售股份的10%，不設回補機制。最高初訂分配份額爲發售股份的60%（因《第18項應用指引》規定發售股份總數至少40%須分配予配售部分投資者，基石投資者除外）。發行人可根據發售結構、市場狀況及散戶投資者利益，自行釐定公開認購部分的初訂分配份額。
α 為發行人分配偏好係數，描述發行人對不同申購規模的分配傾向。α 取值範圍 [0, 1]。
本頁面的「中籤率」定義與港交所配發結果公告完全一致：中籤率 = 該檔位獲配股份總數 ÷ 該檔位有效申請股份總數 × 100%。此為港交所官方口徑，與其他網站可能使用的不同定義（如「申購人數中籤比例」）有本質區別。
期望中籤手數 = 該檔位獲配總股數 ÷ 每手股數 ÷ 該檔位申購人數
例：某檔位獲配總股數 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申購人數 500 人 → 期望中籤手數 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本頁展示 奇瑞汽车（09973）的中籤預測：基於相似 IPO 匹配的期望中籤率、甲乙組資金效率對比。
默認認購倍數按「近期首日表現 → 參與人數 → 人均手數 → 認購倍數」鏈條推導，公式為 認購倍數 = 參與人數 × 人均手數 ÷ 公開發售手數；其中參與人數與人均手數以近期 IPO 的中位數為基準，再按發行規模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢價、行業、併發 IPO、保薦人歷史表現與恒指近期走勢等特徵調節。
認購窗口前期默認倍數以模型推導為準；隨認購進度推進逐步結合孖展倍數加權；臨近截止（進度約九成後）默認倍數以孖展倍數預測為準。
中籤率預測基於歷史 592 隻 IPO 的 22087 條配發檔位數據做迴歸擬合與 KNN 相似匹配，估計各申購檔位的期望中籤手數，並結合分配手法係數 α（人均分配至比例分配）給出區間。你可以自訂認購倍數與分配手法係數 α，覆蓋 cibo 的默認預測，查看不同場景下的期望中籤手數。中籤率的計算方式與回撥規則見港股中籤率怎麼算。
數據來源：港交所披露易平台公開發售配發結果公告、招股說明書、FINI 平台公告；孖展數據（孖展倍數、捷利預測倍數及券商明細）來自捷利交易寶（TradeGo），倍數僅覆蓋已上報券商，捷利預測倍數為全市場外推值。
孖展倍數盤中實時更新；中籤率預測模型隨新股配發數據入庫不定期迭代。
