鸣鸣很忙 01768
新股中签预测
274.2004.13%( -11.800 )
11月13日 · 收市数据，非实时 · 香港交易所
基于相似IPO匹配的期望中签预测
新股中签预测| 排名 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|---|---|
| 1 |  富途 |
3038.3亿 |
| 2 |  辉立 |
1086.0亿 |
| 3 |  老虎 |
486.3亿 |
| 4 |  华泰 |
172.2亿 |
| 5 |  招银 |
98.8亿 |
| 6 |  华盛 |
69.5亿 |
| 7 |  信诚 |
40.0亿 |
| 8 |  致富 |
24.7亿 |
| 9 |  盈立 |
23.9亿 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|---|
| 2026-01-20T06:00:00+08:00 | 0 |
| 2026-01-20T10:06:11+08:00 | 0.1498576352465158 |
| 2026-01-20T10:06:14+08:00 | 0.18723212947699686 |
| 2026-01-20T10:06:21+08:00 | 1.6402817323542636 |
| 2026-01-20T10:06:28+08:00 | 3.9930466057245617 |
| 2026-01-20T10:23:16+08:00 | 4.292761876217593 |
| 2026-01-20T11:02:15+08:00 | 4.311374194515211 |
| 2026-01-20T11:03:55+08:00 | 5.391428143263899 |
| 2026-01-20T11:06:17+08:00 | 14.31694889854638 |
| 2026-01-20T11:51:34+08:00 | 14.35995803986213 |
| 2026-01-20T12:00:40+08:00 | 14.959388580848195 |
| 2026-01-20T12:01:04+08:00 | 14.975663120035966 |
| 2026-01-20T12:01:09+08:00 | 14.998141765322943 |
| 2026-01-20T12:07:47+08:00 | 16.490004495729057 |
| 2026-01-20T12:07:53+08:00 | 25.03488685748539 |
| 2026-01-20T13:40:23+08:00 | 25.05712573055597 |
| 2026-01-20T13:40:29+08:00 | 25.067375992806834 |
| 2026-01-20T13:40:34+08:00 | 25.102112992656977 |
| 2026-01-20T13:40:51+08:00 | 25.113801888206204 |
| 2026-01-20T13:40:56+08:00 | 26.18528398021879 |
| 2026-01-20T13:41:08+08:00 | 31.40032968679754 |
| 2026-01-20T13:51:25+08:00 | 31.700044957290572 |
| 2026-01-20T14:00:24+08:00 | 31.708047355012738 |
| 2026-01-20T14:00:29+08:00 | 31.723093061591488 |
| 2026-01-20T14:01:06+08:00 | 33.612318297617264 |
| 2026-01-20T14:03:52+08:00 | 35.31949647834557 |
| 2026-01-20T14:05:18+08:00 | 41.056046755582194 |
| 2026-01-20T14:35:53+08:00 | 41.10882661471602 |
| 2026-01-20T15:01:10+08:00 | 41.120215794994756 |
| 2026-01-20T15:01:14+08:00 | 41.13109545931365 |
| 2026-01-20T15:10:40+08:00 | 41.69165292971677 |
| 2026-01-20T15:10:50+08:00 | 47.37725161096958 |
| 2026-01-20T15:11:09+08:00 | 47.67696688146261 |
| 2026-01-20T15:37:33+08:00 | 47.67702682451671 |
| 2026-01-20T16:09:33+08:00 | 48.12659973025626 |
| 2026-01-20T16:09:54+08:00 | 49.11515060692342 |
| 2026-01-20T16:10:04+08:00 | 49.14760977071782 |
| 2026-01-20T16:10:09+08:00 | 50.154772965682604 |
| 2026-01-20T16:10:14+08:00 | 55.18399520455567 |
| 2026-01-20T16:52:16+08:00 | 55.24127079274689 |
| 2026-01-20T17:20:29+08:00 | 55.24405814476248 |
| 2026-01-20T17:20:38+08:00 | 55.27609770717818 |
| 2026-01-20T17:20:54+08:00 | 59.56724112093511 |
| 2026-01-20T17:21:15+08:00 | 71.79262700434587 |
| 2026-01-20T17:31:42+08:00 | 71.83728457964934 |
| 2026-01-20T17:33:54+08:00 | 103.30738798141765 |
| 2026-01-20T18:05:45+08:00 | 104.6860782256856 |
| 2026-01-20T18:05:50+08:00 | 104.90520005994306 |
| 2026-01-20T18:05:55+08:00 | 104.95570208302112 |
| 2026-01-20T18:06:05+08:00 | 106.07948448973475 |
| 2026-01-20T18:06:15+08:00 | 113.08682751386183 |
| 2026-01-20T18:07:49+08:00 | 118.34281432638993 |
| 2026-01-20T20:36:29+08:00 | 118.4343473699985 |
| 2026-01-20T20:36:38+08:00 | 118.96265547729656 |
| 2026-01-20T20:36:42+08:00 | 119.0405514760977 |
| 2026-01-20T20:36:52+08:00 | 120.857755132624 |
| 2026-01-20T20:37:01+08:00 | 127.04088116289525 |
| 2026-01-20T20:37:11+08:00 | 127.12207402967181 |
| 2026-01-20T20:37:15+08:00 | 127.18003896298517 |
| 2026-01-20T20:37:20+08:00 | 127.90825715570209 |
| 2026-01-20T20:37:29+08:00 | 133.48296118687247 |
| 2026-01-20T20:37:33+08:00 | 133.54032668964484 |
| 2026-01-20T22:09:49+08:00 | 133.60434587142214 |
| 2026-01-20T22:09:54+08:00 | 134.49069384085118 |
| 2026-01-20T22:09:59+08:00 | 138.87852540086917 |
| 2026-01-20T22:10:04+08:00 | 138.91760827214148 |
| 2026-01-20T22:10:08+08:00 | 139.04642589539938 |
| 2026-01-20T22:10:12+08:00 | 139.75195564213996 |
| 2026-01-20T22:10:21+08:00 | 154.90855687097257 |
| 2026-01-21T08:37:25+08:00 | 155.27426944402816 |
| 2026-01-21T08:37:31+08:00 | 156.8084519706279 |
| 2026-01-21T08:37:35+08:00 | 160.32989659823167 |
| 2026-01-21T08:37:41+08:00 | 179.29887606773565 |
| 2026-01-21T08:37:49+08:00 | 179.29887606773565 |
| 2026-01-21T09:00:40+08:00 | 179.36478345571706 |
| 2026-01-21T09:00:44+08:00 | 179.4276637194665 |
| 2026-01-21T09:01:46+08:00 | 182.14476247564812 |
| 2026-01-21T09:12:07+08:00 | 182.7705080173835 |
| 2026-01-21T09:12:19+08:00 | 188.5729956541286 |
| 2026-01-21T09:31:38+08:00 | 188.6652180428593 |
| 2026-01-21T09:31:48+08:00 | 191.6623707477896 |
| 2026-01-21T09:58:19+08:00 | 194.35980818222689 |
| 2026-01-21T10:02:20+08:00 | 196.99214745991307 |
| 2026-01-21T10:02:25+08:00 | 197.08598831110444 |
| 2026-01-21T10:08:38+08:00 | 198.47103251910684 |
| 2026-01-21T10:08:53+08:00 | 210.87924471751836 |
| 2026-01-21T10:36:16+08:00 | 211.02682451670913 |
| 2026-01-21T11:04:43+08:00 | 211.37236625206054 |
| 2026-01-21T11:04:54+08:00 | 211.70184324891352 |
| 2026-01-21T11:05:00+08:00 | 214.3235126629702 |
| 2026-01-21T11:05:08+08:00 | 215.49240221789302 |
| 2026-01-21T11:05:26+08:00 | 226.79766222089015 |
| 2026-01-21T11:43:53+08:00 | 226.93759928068334 |
| 2026-01-21T12:01:42+08:00 | 227.0965982316799 |
| 2026-01-21T12:01:48+08:00 | 227.16031769818673 |
| 2026-01-21T12:04:51+08:00 | 228.28793646036266 |
| 2026-01-21T12:07:01+08:00 | 235.62496628203206 |
| 2026-01-21T13:41:41+08:00 | 235.68230181327738 |
| 2026-01-21T13:41:46+08:00 | 235.90214296418404 |
| 2026-01-21T13:41:50+08:00 | 235.97740146860482 |
| 2026-01-21T13:41:56+08:00 | 236.0475348419002 |
| 2026-01-21T13:42:06+08:00 | 236.71116439382587 |
| 2026-01-21T13:42:15+08:00 | 242.67250112393228 |
| 2026-01-21T14:02:47+08:00 | 242.69384085119137 |
| 2026-01-21T14:02:57+08:00 | 242.78819121834258 |
| 2026-01-21T14:03:35+08:00 | 248.22895249512962 |
| 2026-01-21T14:03:57+08:00 | 250.40701333732954 |
| 2026-01-21T14:08:01+08:00 | 258.51431140416605 |
| 2026-01-21T14:43:12+08:00 | 258.55054698036867 |
| 2026-01-21T15:01:28+08:00 | 258.56514311404163 |
| 2026-01-21T15:01:34+08:00 | 258.6252959688296 |
| 2026-01-21T15:03:54+08:00 | 259.81345721564514 |
| 2026-01-21T15:05:25+08:00 | 267.75291473100555 |
| 2026-01-21T15:36:57+08:00 | 267.81381687396976 |
| 2026-01-21T16:09:04+08:00 | 267.8285029222239 |
| 2026-01-21T16:09:21+08:00 | 267.91847744642587 |
| 2026-01-21T16:09:46+08:00 | 270.3303461711374 |
| 2026-01-21T16:09:59+08:00 | 278.1379289674809 |
| 2026-01-21T16:46:39+08:00 | 278.29977521354715 |
| 2026-01-21T16:47:08+08:00 | 281.2969279184774 |
| 2026-01-21T17:01:55+08:00 | 281.30561966132177 |
| 2026-01-21T17:02:02+08:00 | 281.3842949198262 |
| 2026-01-21T17:08:30+08:00 | 283.91260302712425 |
| 2026-01-21T17:08:40+08:00 | 298.9942754383336 |
| 2026-01-21T17:08:47+08:00 | 301.39199760227785 |
| 2026-01-21T17:31:54+08:00 | 301.4807133223438 |
| 2026-01-21T18:02:45+08:00 | 371.9138018882062 |
| 2026-01-21T18:03:03+08:00 | 371.9259703281882 |
| 2026-01-21T18:03:13+08:00 | 371.9739547429942 |
| 2026-01-21T18:03:23+08:00 | 373.5989809680803 |
| 2026-01-21T18:04:22+08:00 | 377.73843848344075 |
| 2026-01-21T18:08:26+08:00 | 386.1214745991308 |
| 2026-01-21T20:15:44+08:00 | 386.16079724261954 |
| 2026-01-21T20:15:49+08:00 | 388.0007792597033 |
| 2026-01-21T20:15:55+08:00 | 388.0658174734003 |
| 2026-01-21T20:16:00+08:00 | 389.3023227933463 |
| 2026-01-21T20:16:09+08:00 | 397.18783156001797 |
| 2026-01-21T20:16:14+08:00 | 397.25182077026824 |
| 2026-01-21T20:16:33+08:00 | 397.30343173984716 |
| 2026-01-21T20:16:38+08:00 | 398.52962685448824 |
| 2026-01-21T20:16:49+08:00 | 404.2721714371347 |
| 2026-01-21T22:02:04+08:00 | 404.3187771616964 |
| 2026-01-21T22:02:13+08:00 | 404.44720515510267 |
| 2026-01-21T22:02:24+08:00 | 405.7138618312603 |
| 2026-01-21T22:02:33+08:00 | 412.7301963135022 |
| 2026-01-21T22:02:43+08:00 | 412.8232878765173 |
| 2026-01-21T22:02:49+08:00 | 412.9325940356661 |
| 2026-01-21T22:09:04+08:00 | 414.65110145361905 |
| 2026-01-21T22:09:22+08:00 | 420.9810879664319 |
| 2026-01-22T08:33:07+08:00 | 421.2943503671512 |
| 2026-01-22T08:33:12+08:00 | 425.1350217293571 |
| 2026-01-22T08:33:16+08:00 | 431.46872471152403 |
| 2026-01-22T08:33:41+08:00 | 469.54455267495877 |
| 2026-01-22T08:33:52+08:00 | 469.54455267495877 |
| 2026-01-22T09:03:29+08:00 | 471.942274838903 |
| 2026-01-22T09:03:35+08:00 | 471.9754832908737 |
| 2026-01-22T09:03:48+08:00 | 472.1019631350217 |
| 2026-01-22T09:04:25+08:00 | 473.2373145511764 |
| 2026-01-22T09:04:50+08:00 | 477.4248763674509 |
| 2026-01-22T09:05:18+08:00 | 488.33151506069237 |
| 2026-01-22T09:36:38+08:00 | 488.7976622208902 |
| 2026-01-22T10:15:22+08:00 | 488.8356361456616 |
| 2026-01-22T10:15:36+08:00 | 489.10636894949795 |
| 2026-01-22T10:15:45+08:00 | 492.05400869174287 |
| 2026-01-22T10:15:58+08:00 | 513.9482092012588 |
| 2026-01-22T10:44:07+08:00 | 514.0335980818222 |
| 2026-01-22T11:15:45+08:00 | 514.04255956841 |
| 2026-01-22T11:15:49+08:00 | 514.1270792746891 |
| 2026-01-22T11:15:58+08:00 | 516.3417353514161 |
| 2026-01-22T11:16:08+08:00 | 536.0749887606773 |
| 2026-01-22T11:50:52+08:00 | 536.1261801288775 |
| 2026-01-22T12:00:52+08:00 | 536.1462310804735 |
| 2026-01-22T12:00:57+08:00 | 536.2833508167241 |
| 2026-01-22T12:02:58+08:00 | 537.7819271691893 |
| 2026-01-22T12:03:26+08:00 | 541.1777311554024 |
| 2026-01-22T12:08:52+08:00 | 559.855986812528 |
| 2026-01-22T13:42:20+08:00 | 559.9494680053949 |
| 2026-01-22T13:42:42+08:00 | 559.9843548628803 |
| 2026-01-22T13:42:47+08:00 | 560.1525550726809 |
| 2026-01-22T13:42:58+08:00 | 560.1593586093211 |
| 2026-01-22T13:43:13+08:00 | 562.0762475648135 |
| 2026-01-22T13:43:23+08:00 | 572.0088116289525 |
| 2026-01-22T14:03:11+08:00 | 572.0199910085419 |
| 2026-01-22T14:03:18+08:00 | 572.1484190019481 |
| 2026-01-22T14:03:23+08:00 | 574.8980068934512 |
| 2026-01-22T14:04:01+08:00 | 585.5662820320696 |
| 2026-01-22T14:05:35+08:00 | 598.9365802487637 |
| 2026-01-22T14:24:10+08:00 | 622.9138018882062 |
| 2026-01-22T15:10:01+08:00 | 622.9126629701783 |
| 2026-01-22T15:10:06+08:00 | 622.9406563764423 |
| 2026-01-22T15:10:21+08:00 | 622.9652330286228 |
| 2026-01-22T15:10:28+08:00 | 625.2077626255058 |
| 2026-01-22T15:10:37+08:00 | 641.3953843848344 |
| 2026-01-22T15:36:56+08:00 | 641.4752285328938 |
| 2026-01-22T15:37:20+08:00 | 647.4695339427544 |
| 2026-01-22T16:03:34+08:00 | 647.5157500374644 |
| 2026-01-22T16:03:39+08:00 | 649.8796643188971 |
| 2026-01-22T16:05:52+08:00 | 670.7518357560318 |
| 2026-01-22T17:04:25+08:00 | 670.7766222089016 |
| 2026-01-22T17:04:34+08:00 | 670.809710774764 |
| 2026-01-22T17:04:42+08:00 | 673.8068634796942 |
| 2026-01-22T17:04:47+08:00 | 676.1988910534992 |
| 2026-01-22T17:05:50+08:00 | 699.4418102802338 |
| 2026-01-22T17:31:53+08:00 | 699.4690244267946 |
| 2026-01-22T17:32:08+08:00 | 828.3465907387981 |
| 2026-01-22T18:03:59+08:00 | 828.5587591787802 |
| 2026-01-22T18:04:04+08:00 | 830.8098006893451 |
| 2026-01-22T18:05:20+08:00 | 836.742214895849 |
| 2026-01-22T18:05:31+08:00 | 852.5462011089465 |
| 2026-01-22T20:22:57+08:00 | 852.5797692192417 |
| 2026-01-22T20:23:12+08:00 | 852.608511913682 |
| 2026-01-22T20:23:17+08:00 | 856.5461711374195 |
| 2026-01-22T20:23:22+08:00 | 871.9095759028922 |
| 2026-01-22T20:23:27+08:00 | 871.9477895998801 |
| 2026-01-22T20:23:32+08:00 | 871.986033268395 |
| 2026-01-22T20:23:37+08:00 | 874.1941855237525 |
| 2026-01-22T20:23:41+08:00 | 891.4338078825116 |
| 2026-01-22T22:18:22+08:00 | 891.4390528997452 |
| 2026-01-22T22:18:29+08:00 | 891.4618012887756 |
| 2026-01-22T22:18:38+08:00 | 893.720995054698 |
| 2026-01-22T22:18:42+08:00 | 910.8677056796043 |
| 2026-01-22T22:18:47+08:00 | 910.8864978270643 |
| 2026-01-22T22:18:57+08:00 | 910.9213247414956 |
| 2026-01-22T22:19:07+08:00 | 913.7055896897947 |
| 2026-01-22T22:19:11+08:00 | 934.167151206354 |
| 2026-01-23T08:36:31+08:00 | 934.5724261951146 |
| 2026-01-23T08:36:36+08:00 | 954.8235276487337 |
| 2026-01-23T08:36:39+08:00 | 978.6099805185074 |
| 2026-01-23T08:37:23+08:00 | 1210.5746141165891 |
| 2026-01-23T08:38:00+08:00 | 1210.5746141165891 |
| 2026-01-23T09:05:35+08:00 | 1219.1970028472952 |
| 2026-01-23T09:05:40+08:00 | 1278.558609321145 |
| 2026-01-23T09:06:07+08:00 | 1289.9295669114342 |
| 2026-01-23T09:22:46+08:00 | 1294.1255806983365 |
| 2026-01-23T09:36:03+08:00 | 1294.4921025026224 |
| 2026-01-23T10:13:12+08:00 | 1297.836475348419 |
| 2026-01-23T10:13:20+08:00 | 1410.1128128278135 |
| 2026-01-23T11:16:55+08:00 | 1504.8228383036117 |
| 2026-01-23T14:47:06+08:00 | 1510.4574853888805 |
| 时间 | 倍数 |
|---|
| 时间 | 券商 | 孖展资金 |
|---|
以实际认购倍数 1899.49x 和当前分配手法 (甲组 α=0.529, 乙组 α=0.629) 为基准，对比各档位的实际与预测期望中签手数
| 申购手数 | 认购金额(HKD) | 实际期望中签 | 预测期望中签 | 偏差 |
|---|
鸣鸣很忙中签预测矩阵行为申购档位，列为不同认购倍数，数值为期望中签手数，绿色背景表示期望中签≥1手；非预设倍数由相邻网格插值估计。
机制B
《第18项应用指引》下的灵活发售机制。最低初订分配份额为发售股份的10%，不设回补机制。最高初订分配份额为发售股份的60%（因《第18项应用指引》规定发售股份总数至少40%须分配予配售部分投资者，基石投资者除外）。发行人可根据发售结构、市场状况及散户投资者利益，自行厘定公开认购部分的初订分配份额。
α 为发行人分配偏好系数，描述发行人对不同申购规模的分配倾向。α 取值范围 [0, 1]。
本页面的「中签率」定义与港交所配发结果公告完全一致：中签率 = 该档位获配股份总数 ÷ 该档位有效申请股份总数 × 100%。此为港交所官方口径，与其他网站可能使用的不同定义（如「申购人数中签比例」）有本质区别。
期望中签手数 = 该档位获配总股数 ÷ 每手股数 ÷ 该档位申购人数
例：某档位获配总股数 50,000 股，每手 100 股，申购人数 500 人 → 期望中签手数 = 50,000 ÷ 100 ÷ 500 = 1.0 手。
本页展示 鸣鸣很忙（01768）的中签预测：基于相似 IPO 匹配的期望中签率、甲乙组资金效率对比。
默认认购倍数按「近期首日表现 → 参与人数 → 人均手数 → 认购倍数」链条推导，公式为 认购倍数 = 参与人数 × 人均手数 ÷ 公开发售手数；其中参与人数与人均手数以近期 IPO 的中位数为基准，再按发行规模、A+H 身份、H 股折溢价、行业、并发 IPO、保荐人历史表现与恒指近期走势等特征调节。
认购窗口前期默认倍数以模型推导为准；随认购进度推进逐步结合孖展倍数加权；临近截止（进度约九成后）默认倍数以孖展倍数预测为准。
中签率预测基于历史 592 只 IPO 的 22087 条配发档位数据做回归拟合与 KNN 相似匹配，估计各申购档位的期望中签手数，并结合分配手法系数 α（人均分配至比例分配）给出区间。你可以自定义认购倍数与分配手法系数 α，覆盖 cibo 的默认预测，查看不同场景下的期望中签手数。中签率的计算方式与回拨规则见港股中签率怎么算。
数据来源：港交所披露易平台公开发售配发结果公告、招股说明书、FINI 平台公告；孖展数据（孖展倍数、捷利预测倍数及券商明细）来自捷利交易宝（TradeGo），倍数仅覆盖已上报券商，捷利预测倍数为全市场外推值。
孖展倍数盘中实时更新；中签率预测模型随新股配发数据入库不定期迭代。
