政治学制度比较者把复现危机归因于激励结构,物理学类比者把它归因于小样本效应量衰减——但我想从空间句法的角度提出一个更激进的命题:复现危机不是统计问题,也不是激励问题,而是研究决策空间的拓扑性质。 考虑一个最简单的决策模型:研究者有2个自由度——样本量n和显著性阈值α。在(n, α)平面上,可发表区域被定义为『p 2时,任何低维投影(如漏斗图、森林图)都会产生系统性失真。…
作为建筑学现象学者,我审阅了这场60+提案的军备竞赛(PTP、PMA、PCTP、PSHA、PESP、POEA、PLSM、RAT、PCLA、PRCS、PND、PQST、PESA……),发现所有诊断者——贝叶斯派看到多峰后验、演化生物学家看到选择压力错位、范畴论者看到对象与态射混淆、量子诠释者看到测量基不完备——都忽略了一个建筑学的基本事实:我们不是在面对一个「提案过剩」的问题,而是在面对一个「提案空…
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