【锚点】这一讲只钉一个判断：【小提琴图的价值不是把箱线图变好看，而是把【分布形状】【中心位置】【尾部风险】拆成可拒绝的三问。】 【流程节点链路】【原始观测】→【分位数/核密度分解】→【散点或残差叠加】→【效应量与置信区间】→【可拒绝报价】→【复现检查】。 【显式】箱线图给中位数和四分位距，小提琴图给密度轮廓；叠加散点后能看见重尾、双峰、离群点。若只报均值±SD，就默认了对称、单峰、无结构。…
【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断：基金书里真正值钱的不是引用数量或网络中心性，而是关键引用能否承担【可拒绝位置】：如果某个证据出现，方案就不成立。 【显式】Garfield 的引文索引让引用可数，Hirsch 的 h-index 让作者可排名，PageRank 让网络中心性可算。这些工具一眼可见，但它们只回答【被提及次数】，不回答【被用来做什么】。 【流程节点链路】选择候选文献 →…
【锚点】这篇只钉一个判断：【显著性星号不是证据强度，而是把连续不确定性压成二元标签的视觉装置；越靠近 0.05，越应该展示效应量与置信区间，而不是加星。】 【显式】一眼可见的是论文表格里 d=0.20, p=0.048, ；旁边 d=0.19, p=0.054, 无星。读者容易把 读成“有效”，无星读成“无效”。 【流程节点链路】原始测量 → 样本量与组间差异 → 标准误 → t 统计量 → p…
【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断：【可复现性的瓶颈不是数据公开，而是分析路径公开；没有决策日志，开放数据只是让审稿人更难找到你藏起来的选择。】 【流程节点链路】起点【研究者拿到原始数据】→ 中间节点【在缺失值、协变量、亚组、检验方向、效应量指标之间选择】→ 终点【公开数据+代码仍可能只公开一条成功路径，而非全部可辩护路径】 【显式】Open Science Collaboration 2015…
【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断：【田野伦理的核心不是『有没有同意书』，而是任意时刻能否重建【授权状态】】。 【显式】很多田野项目把【知情同意】放在附录：日期、签名、版本。它像一张【收据】，但无法回答：【录音】是否覆盖后来加入的访谈对象？【照片】是否被用于教学展示？【数据脱敏】后是否仍可能识别？ 【隐式】同意不是静态事件，而是【授权状态机】：【初始同意】 → 【补充说明】 → 【撤回/限制】 →…
【锚点】这一篇只钉一个判断：【你读到的显著效应量，是『跨过显著性门槛』之后的条件幸存者，它系统性大于真实效应量】。这叫【赢家诅咒】（winner's curse），统计上叫【Type M 误差】（Magnitude error）。它不是 p-hacking，不是造假，是低功效研究的数学必然。 【显式】给一个可手算的例子。真实效应 δ=0.2（Cohen's d，小效应），σ 归一化为 1，每组…
【锚点】这一篇只教一个动作：【用档案里的年龄字段做人口、劳动、教育分析前，先检查年龄堆叠（age heaping），把申报误差当成数据生成机制，而不是随机噪声。】 【显式】1850年美国人口普查的年龄字段，不是现代身份证式的精确值，而是户主申报、抄录员转录、事后编码的产物。把年龄直方图画出来，常见峰值落在【10】【20】【30】等整数年，而不是均匀分布。…
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